Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[fordxbt]

"honey what are you doing to my wedding ring?"

"Oh just melting it down in preparation for the inevitable collapse of the world economy"

%^&@$%*&~#$~@%^&~@#$

^^ thats every man getting his ass kicked ^^

 

[Paladin]

Bear in mind how tiny a market segment Gold is and what a comparatively small amount of investment from somewhere like China could do to the market. Then watch:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=865880359&play=1

 

[refined silver]

Um, excuse me everyone, but the theatre is on fire. Now if everyone slowly and calmly rises and moves slowly to the exits, avoiding the falling flaming beams and curtains, we can all get out safely with no-one hurt.

Asia Needs Deal to Prevent Panic Selling of U.S. Debt, Yu Says
By Kevin Hamlin

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Japan, China and other holders of U.S. government debt must quickly reach an agreement to prevent panic sales leading to a global financial collapse, said Yu Yongding, a former adviser to the Chinese central bank.

``We are in the same boat, we must cooperate,'' Yu said in an interview in Beijing on Sept. 23. ``If there's no selling in a panicked way, then China willingly can continue to provide our financial support by continuing to hold U.S. assets.''

An agreement is needed so that no nation rushes to sell, ``causing a collapse,'' Yu said. Japan is the biggest owner of U.S. Treasury bills, holding $593 billion, and China is second with $519 billion. Asian countries together hold half of the $2.67 trillion total held by foreign nations.

China, Japan, South Korea and others should meet soon to seal a deal, said Yu, a former academic member of the central bank's monetary policy committee. The talks should involve finance ministers, central bank governors and even national leaders, he said.

``Whether some kind of agreement between them to continue to hold Treasury bills is viable, I'm not sure,'' said James McCormack, head of sovereign ratings at Fitch Ratings Ltd in Hong Kong. ``It would be unusual. If it became apparent that sovereigns in Asia were selling Treasuries the market would take that quite badly, it's something to be avoided...''

China's huge holdings of U.S. debt means it must bear a large proportion of the ``burden of sorting things out'' in the U.S., Yu said. China is not in a hurry to dump its U.S. holdings and communication between the two nations every ``couple of days'' is keeping Chinese leaders informed and helping to avoid a potential panic, he added.

``China is very worried about the safety of its assets,'' he said. ``If you want China to keep calm, you must ensure China that its assets are safe.''

I'm all for trading trends, but somtimes in markets like life, there is discontinuity, and sudden change.

Everyone has speculated on when foreigners would start to unload US paper, now they are talking about it -urgently!

"I won't run for the door, if you don't....!"

 

[Temjin]

Bear in mind how tiny a market segment Gold is and what a comparatively small amount of investment from somewhere like China could do to the market. Then watch:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=865880359&play=1

This is an interesting interview.

On one hand, you see Jing Ulrich is trying to talk up gold by merely saying China will diversify its reserve through investing in euro, yen and GOLD. On the other hand, you have Amanda seem to be acting as she is "reluctant" to move on to the topic of "buying gold". This is especially true when Jing has mentioned about buying gold THREE times during the interview and every follow up questions by Amanda seem to be "diverting" the topic to something else.

Bloody CNBC must be a slave dog for those who pay them to talk down gold anywhere they can.

Funny though, JPMorgan Securities is also a big shorter of gold. So Jing was saying something AGAINST the interest of her company.

Do anyone feel the reaction from Amanda?? Or it's just me?

 

[refined silver]

This is an interesting interview.

Bloody CNBC must be a slave dog for those who pay them to talk down gold anywhere they can.

Funny though, JPMorgan Securities is also a big shorter of gold. So Jing was saying something AGAINST the interest of her company.

Do anyone feel the reaction from Amanda?? Or it's just me?

True about CNBC.

The usual gold shorts JPM, Goldman, etc are at their least short, for a very long time.

The work of Adrian Douglas, GATA consultant and frequent contributor to LeMetropolecafe.com. Douglas’ work follows the Gold position of Goldman Sachs [a surrogate of the Federal Reserve] on the Tokyo Commodities Exchange [TOCOM].

Douglas has reported on Goldman’s daily TOCOM gold futures position changes for almost 3 years.

With Goldman Sachs representing a defacto surrogate of the Federal Reserve, it is clear that the Fed is moving from being “overextended short” to flat – or possibly going long gold.

I believe this transition is critically important, much like a fuse burning toward explosives.When this position crosses over from short to long, as I expect it will sometime this month, I expect that some large deafening bells will be ringing – somewhere.

Well, I’d like to report that last night [as of Sept. 24, 2008], Goldman Sachs has further reduced their “short gold position” by over one thousand contracts on TOCOM to “net” 624 contracts short – from a high water mark of more than 50,000 contracts short a couple of years ago.

I now surmise that the “lit fuse” referred to above, is actually a count-down to the imminent imposition of “RECEIVERSHIP of the U.S.A” by a multi-national group of creditors.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Some things just are not adding up? Constant, almost daily information alluding to the scarcity of physical, yet the gold price just biding it's time. It's either going to do a moon shot or gather dust as a relic of the money/fiat currency wars for the rest of time - this week will be interesting.

Gold and silver dealer reports an ‘unprecedented’ shortage of metals
Sunday, September 28, 2008 By David Clerkin, Markets Correspondent

A surge for demand in gold and silver has resulted in an unprecedented shortage of the metals for retail investors in recent days, according to Gold and Silver Investments, a Dublin-based firm that allows retail investors to speculate on movements in the value of precious metals.

Gold and Silver Investments director Mark O’Byrne said the supply of gold and silver available for small retail investors suffered a dramatic deterioration within hours on Friday, as wholesalers reported that government mints and refiners, the primary suppliers of the metals, had stopped offering new supplies.

‘‘It’s absolutely unprecedented,” said O’Byrne, who said the shortages were likely to drive up the costs of gold and silver in the secondary market.

‘‘This did not happen even in the 1930s and the 1970s, and will result in markedly higher prices in the coming months.”

According to O’Byrne, gold and silver were now only easily accessible in the primary market, which consisted of central banks and other major traders of the precious metals.

However, he said that minimum transaction sizes in this market were out of reach for most retail investors - at approximately $350,000 for gold and $135,000 for silver.

http://www.thepost.ie/post/pages/p/story.aspx-qqqt=MARKETS-qqqm=nav-qqqid=36223-qqqx=1.asp

 

[explod]

Some things just are not adding up? Constant, almost daily information alluding to the scarcity of physical, yet the gold price just biding it's time. It's either going to do a moon shot or gather dust as a relic of the money/fiat currency wars for the rest of time - this week will be interesting.



http://www.thepost.ie/post/pages/p/story.aspx-qqqt=MARKETS-qqqm=nav-qqqid=36223-qqqx=1.asp

Visited a Pawnbroker I know in the City (Melb) at the weekend. He told me to forget gold. Silver will leave it in its tracks when it all moves up. Apparently supplies are virtually non-existent against an enourmous demand both industrially and investment wise. And the cartels are loaded to go long. He says a 5 to 1 ratio for gold silver will occur soon. Not sure if that means gold down Uncle but gold in the last month has been about the only thing to go up.

 

[Whiskers]

Some things just are not adding up? Constant, almost daily information alluding to the scarcity of physical, yet the gold price just biding it's time. It's either going to do a moon shot or gather dust as a relic of the money/fiat currency wars for the rest of time - this week will be interesting.



http://www.thepost.ie/post/pages/p/story.aspx-qqqt=MARKETS-qqqm=nav-qqqid=36223-qqqx=1.asp

Yeah, it's all been a bit confusing in terms of which way things will bounce.

Not sure yet, but from a FA perspective (which my EW looks like it may support) I'm inclined to think the recent shrinkage of oil stockpiles will give oil a little spike to finish off the current correction, wave C, towards 120ish probably after this US rescue package is signed and everyone thinks all is ok for awhile.

The gold chart is less clear, but taking a lead from oil, I think a little kick in gold over 900 again corresponding with the spike in oil, before oil continues it's primary downtrend and gold has a minor correction before resuming the primary uptrend later on lack of supply.

If that plan works out I'll take some profits on the top and restock when gold corrects back.

I don't think we'll see another huge spike up until after it finishes this wave 5 maybe to just above 915 and corrects back a bit and gets into leg 3 a bit.

 

[refined silver]

From Financial Times:

European central banks have cut their sales of gold to the lowest level in almost a decade, reversing the practice of recent years when hefty sales helped depress prices.

Institutions bound by the Central Bank Gold Agreement – the banks of the eurozone plus Sweden and Switzerland – sold about 343 tonnes of gold in the year that expired on Friday, the lowest amount since the first CBGA was signed in 1999.

Duh! Some people starting to realise the safest thing in the world for reserves is not USD denominated paper!

If they do stop selling thats another 500 tonnes a year of supply or about 20% of world supply thats gone.

 

[rederob]

The gold chart is less clear, but taking a lead from oil, I think a little kick in gold over 900 again corresponding with the spike in oil, before oil continues it's primary downtrend and gold has a minor correction before resuming the primary uptrend later on lack of supply.

Just to be clear, oil is in primary uptrend, with a short term retrace.
There is a huge surplus of above ground gold that can meet demand for decades to come without straining the supply chain.
There is likely to be an oil supply deficit within 3 years, with a critical shortage probable within 5 years.
The issue with gold is whether or not central bank sales ramp up in the medium term because fiat money cannot confidently be bought into.

 

[BentRod]

Seems like Gold is setting up for a breakout of an ascending triangle on the Hourlies.

 

[Temjin]

Gold defy common sense today! After reading the bailout plan being rejected, I was expecting a huge rise in USD and a corresponding drop in POG. However, the correlation did not happen as expected and while USD did drop, POG rose instead!!!!

Silver also stagnate in last night trading, so again, decouped from the "general" safe haven buying of gold.

Interesting time indeed.

 

[explod]

Gold defy common sense today! After reading the bailout plan being rejected, I was expecting a huge rise in USD and a corresponding drop in POG.
Interesting time indeed.

Do not get your rationale. I have found that in uncertain times gold goes up as it did, some people see it as a safe haven. There will of course always be those who dont' but the ones that do will drive the price as the gold market is but a small one.

Would be interested in the reasons for your statement Temjin ?

 

[Temjin]

Do not get your rationale. I have found that in uncertain times gold goes up as it did, some people see it as a safe haven. There will of course always be those who dont' but the ones that do will drive the price as the gold market is but a small one.

Would be interested in the reasons for your statement Temjin ?

I guess the reasons were simply. Bailout plan failed (for now) = possible deflation = good for the USD = bad for gold.

Of course, that was my believes. Mr Market is always right at the end. I may have made a tidy profit from this, but I was surprised by the reaction last night. hehe

 

[Ageo]

Visited a Pawnbroker I know in the City (Melb) at the weekend. He told me to forget gold. Silver will leave it in its tracks when it all moves up. Apparently supplies are virtually non-existent against an enourmous demand both industrially and investment wise. And the cartels are loaded to go long. He says a 5 to 1 ratio for gold silver will occur soon. Not sure if that means gold down Uncle but gold in the last month has been about the only thing to go up.

Explod i have many pawnbroking customers and to be quite frank they all talk ****

 

[bean]

Well I wonder if its that time of year for is gold Bugs


with predictions from the K-cycle (Kondratieff). The heart of the winter phase is marked by the fall/deflation of all assets except the primary currency (US$) and gold (supposed to include gold based equities). Initially the gold miners fall with the GM (K-cycle winter period where all assets deflate) until the 'winter' demarcation point of the K-cycle. This demarcation point, where gold and the GM separate is supposed to be dramatic (which presupposes a period with severe asset deflation (ie:market crash period).

 

[BentRod]

And all that BS translates to??

Get short on Gold ? :

 

[Whiskers]

Don't want to add fuel to any 'crash' scenerios, but it looks by my countin as though the next stop for gold is about 810ish.

Also USD index seems to be going up again equating to better returns in AUD. Also I've got oil backing up to about 110-15ish before carring on falling... not sure to where... looking at some long term counts and sub 20 seems not out of the question.

Oh., rederob... re oil "primary" trend... yeah argueably the super long trend is up, but for me it's going down for at least a few months yet improving our production costs.

Anyone got different view?

Kauri, how's your wave count goin?

 

[chops_a_must]

Your wave count on gold makes no sense as always Whiskers.

Even to a casual oberserver of EW.

 

[Whiskers]

Your wave count on gold makes no sense as always Whiskers.

Even to a casual oberserver of EW.

Well, what in particular makes no sense to you chops? ... and I'll try to explain.

It's been workin OK for me lately. Is it that you don't understand EW per se or just don't like my count? :

PS: Chops, the top chart is gold, the other is the USD index.