Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Kauri]

Thanks Kauri for posting the chart on what happened , any chance of posting one on what you think Will happen ?
cheers

ps can anyone tell me how i actually post a chart here ? and how do i copy a chart from my trading platform , sorry if sounding naieve but never had to do this before

(DAILIES )...the way I have posted and been following the yella stuff... the last move .. although corrrective... doesn't really look straight-forward to me.. as my E/W is purposely basic, just the simple waves without expanded and expounded corrections, nested 1,2's et al, I am waiting for something I can feel comfortable with before committing to the fray again..

Ooops, sorry Nick... just saw your post... relief on my part that mine rouughly ties in... :walker:

Cheers
..........Kauri

Yes... sooner or later.. ... how do you see it??

Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[chops_a_must]

Thanks Kauri for posting the chart on what happened , any chance of posting one on what you think Will happen ?
cheers

ps can anyone tell me how i actually post a chart here ? and how do i copy a chart from my trading platform , sorry if sounding naieve but never had to do this before

Ahhh... maybe it's implied because it's a wave 1, that maybe, perhaps just maybe, the call is for it to be going up in the medium term?

 

[nunthewiser]

Yes... sooner or later.. ... how do you see it??

Cheers
..........Kauri

i see a bounce from around these levels and to break 910 convincingly.... probably wrong but ya did ask

 

[nunthewiser]

Ahhh... maybe it's implied because it's a wave 1, that maybe, perhaps just maybe, the call is for it to be going up in the medium term?

u must have xray vision my good man because from where im sitting i see no calls on the post i was questioning

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Keeping an eye on the bigger picture, as always the weaker hands are being flushed out again, even with the AU gold price still above $1075 after breaching the all time high only days ago. More bargains to be had.

The USDX going for another spurt, only this time gold is some $100 higher than when the USDX was last at 80. Go for it Goldman Sachs!

When all the logical reasons for buying US dollars don't make sense, the obvious reason is maybe the Feds proxies in the Caymans are buying their own trash?

The flip began with the changing fortunes in the U.S. dollar, after investors bet that the European Central Bank will start cutting it key interest rate, making U.S. rates look relatively more attractive. Another theory is that foreign banks are buying U.S. dollars, after blowing their brains out on U.S.-dollar denominated assets, to pay back depositors.

Wealthy investors (as well as the rest of us) now find that the fall out from Lehmans is having a knock on effect down the line and can't access their money due to funds halting redemptions.

In particular, funds of hedge funds servicing wealthy individuals have been bombarded with re-quests for billions of dollars of withdrawals.
"It is really ugly out there," said one large London hedge fund manager.

So how do you store wealth now? $2 houses on eBay perhaps?

 

[Whiskers]

OOPs . sorry whiskers but gonna have to take back half of my congrats . YOU were spot on on your gold call and for that well done in calling it before the fact BUT looks like my call on the USD a bit closer . either way onya for stickin your neck out before the fact and posting your analysis.
have a nice day

Sorry... nah, I was right on both counts. The USD index has risen to over 80.

You're not getting confused with the AUD/USD are you?

 

[nunthewiser]

Sorry... nah, I was right on both counts. The USD index has risen to over 80.

You're not getting confused with the AUD/USD are you?

yes i did actually , my mistake . good call

 

[Whiskers]

Whiskers can I suggest you pop over to the Chartist and see if Nick still has 1 months subscription, there are lots of charts both current and past marked up using EW with a commentary he has a current gold chart marked up. It could fast track your progress certainly did for me at least.

Well thanks for the tip mate... but err, seems like I'm on a bit of a run atm. I pretty well agree with Nick's analysis, except for the wave (c) count.

I would guess that Nick and Kauri's data is coming from a different source, maybe comex contracts. Perhaps they will confirm.

I've noticed some variation between LGE and COMEX at times. My count doesn't look like it'll work on Nick's chart.

As I mentioned earlier, on my chart the expanded Flat looks right to start a diag triangle cycle 3, ie probably a more gradual or volatile rise than the steep impulsive count up to the 1030 high. If my count is correct, wave (4) should revisit 925 sometime down the track.

Mind you since my cycle 2 did not penetrate the territory of the lower degree wave (4) (2006 high) it should still be a fairly good rise.

From an FA view that sounds reasonable given the amount of funds that were sloshing around before as compared to the future. I reckon the near term rises will be more to do with lack of supply kicking in than inflationary safe haven.

I'll tell ya what... if Nick (or you) can catch me out with a wrong (price) forecast, I'll seriously consider subscribing.

Hey Whiskers,

I'm no expert on EW, but I thought I'd like to share my experience with it. I have found that there is a tendency when applying EW, I would forcefully apply a count even when it made no sense.

For one or two of your posts I have seen that. Hopefully it will be something you will be aware of.

Good luck with it!!!!

Yeah thanks mazzatelli. It's always a bit difficult to get the count right. sometimes, err often I paste the last count as soon as it may be applicable and move it accordingly... but now when I do that I try to remember to put the ? against it until it's proven.

yes i did actually , my mistake . good call

Yeah and at least we're on the same page re the AUD.

 

[chops_a_must]

Well thanks for the tip mate... but err, seems like I'm on a bit of a run atm. I pretty well agree with Nick's analysis, except for the wave (c) count.

Yeah, I don't get that.

Nicks is an inherently bullish call, whereas yours is an inherently bearish call on the EW, with the way you've done it there...

 

[Whiskers]

Yeah, I don't get that.

Nicks is an inherently bullish call, whereas yours is an inherently bearish call on the EW, with the way you've done it there...

Nick's is certainly more bullish than me... but I'm only mildly bearish or passive, in the short term until this abc folds out to A then B and C for (2).

My view, as mentioned somewhere earlier, is that the POG should move roughly sideways in the 800's for some time yet... partly due to a lack of buying pressure and the pretty severe revaluation of major currencies.

Uncertain times, I suspect gold will just mark time for awhile until some certainty of direction in the economy emerges.

 

[chops_a_must]

Nick's is certainly more bullish than me... but I'm only mildly bearish in the short term until this abc folds out to A then B and C for (2).

No, the way you have set it out is that the next move down will be (i) in a wave 3 down.

 

[Whiskers]

No, the way you have set it out is that the next move down will be (i) in a wave 3 down.

Nooo... something like this.

 

[chops_a_must]

Nooo... something like this.

I'm sorry.

It's just too incoherent for it to be followed...

 

[barrett]

Nooo... something like this.

Whiskers, you labelled the top of the recent price spike with a big C - were we meant to interpret that as bullish?

 

[explod]

One has to admire the patience and persistance of the Elliot Wave proponenets but it seems at times that the gold thread is being used more as a formum to backtest and bounce off all and sundry for those wanting to master the method more than talk on subject.

There is a dedicated thread for EW which I do follow as one of my favourite people is Robert Prechter, an expert of renown on Elliot Wave theory.

Gold is very much about politics/currencies or, if you like, the fundamental world stage. The 10 year gold chart shows gold in a long term up trend and in the last 12 months the gain is 16%

Gold sales desks world wide are reporting huge public sales and the depletion of stock. The big days for gold bugs must be close by.

Although, as I have always believed, it will probably not be allowed to bolt till after the Presidential election. Only a month away now though.

 

[Whiskers]

Whiskers, you labelled the top of the recent price spike with a big C - were we meant to interpret that as bullish?

Oh, I see where you're getting confused now.

The first wave (1) is an expanded Flat ABC, which is a corrective pattern, but as I said I expect a dia triangle pattern to play out. In a diag triangle, wave one can be a corrective pattern, in fact all waves can be corrective patterns as opposed to a regular impulse where only two and four can be a corrective pattern. The main feature is that wave four must overlap (or within 10% of) wave two whereas in a regular impulse wave four cannot overlap wave two.

 

[barrett]

Okay Whiskers. How about the big story of last night though, have you guys ever seen anything like this? It certainly needs some consideration.. is it the end of a shakeout (since selling volume in most stocks was much lower than on last week's rally).... or are the stocks telling us gold is about to take a huge bath? I mean this is bloody extraordinary, the biggest gold stocks in the world down 15%, 18%, 23% in a night!

 

[IFocus]

Its the one thing I currently don't get

There hasn't been a larger threat to general wealth world wide in my life time than currently exists.

Yet gold just treads water........

 

[Whiskers]

Okay Whiskers. How about the big story of last night though, have you guys ever seen anything like this? It certainly needs some consideration.. is it the end of a shakeout (since selling volume in most stocks was much lower than on last week's rally).... or are the stocks telling us gold is about to take a huge bath? I mean this is bloody extraordinary, the biggest gold stocks in the world down 15%, 18%, 23% in a night!

Not exactly sure what to make of gold stock prices... apart from traders/investors struggling to stay liquid... even main stream otherwise healthy businesses that could normally rely on a short term overdraft etc are now facing rejection of their applications.

From news reports, there's a fair bit of liquidating assets of all sorts even by the wealthiest at the moment to meet current expenses. There was a story on the TV news last night, a big boat builder in SE Qld having to lay off a hundred or so people because a lot of orders, including some big luxury orders that he thought were firm, have been cancelled recently... even though many has commenced construction.

But as my analysis suggests, wave (4) looks likely to revisit 925'ish sometime down the track. That's one to watch out for, since probably about the new year gold will kick off wave (3) which could run to something like 1,400'ish.

Ok... I'll give ya my crystal ball gazing. The stock markets should rebound a good chunk of this correction during the next few months, maybe year... then I think we might get some more slowing in world growth and the rest of all the credit crunch/debt issues start to wash out and another down leg in the markets to finish off the larger degree correction. By then new gold production should have started to seriously kick in facing oversupply and retrace (4) back to current levels.

 

[Nyden]

Its the one thing I currently don't get

There hasn't been a larger threat to general wealth world wide in my life time than currently exists.

Yet gold just treads water........

Spot on.

Surely it's already apparent enough that we're in quite a mess here; so why hasn't gold taken off yet? Do cities need to start rioting, and missiles begin firing before gold actually does something? More importantly, if it becomes evident to people that gold is not the save haven / doomsday insurance it once was; what's keeping it from plummeting into the abyss?

... I stand by my belief that gold is a relic