Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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My thoughts on the surprising USD strength - I'm not talking about inflation, just the dollar strength here.
(Please note I'm not an economist - so would appreciate some feedback, this could be flawed thinking on my part)..

Let's use crude numbers just to illustrate..

1. Prior to all the trouble and whilst we were in the bull market the US economy had an economy that appeared to be $10 trillion strong ( GDP) .
There was a housing bubble and commodity prices were also high, say $1 trill dollars worth of froth ,, so whilst it thought it had a $10 trillion economy and the market thought it had a $10 trill economy it was actually a $9 trill economy .. so whilst the markets had assigned it a notional value of 10 the dollar was really worth a 9.

2. so before all the financial rescue packages we really had a $9 trill economy .. maybe the dollar gradually slid back to represent this new market view and realisation of the froth and did gradually go back down to the 9 value.

3. But just after this we saw the bank collapses and we have had a huge printing and injection of money to revive the economy and bail out financial institutions.
There was also the Bush incentive package to stimulate the economy.
Let's say there was an injection of $2 trill worth of funds to achieve that ..
so now we are back to a $9 trill GDP economy of which $7 trill is real and there's $2 trill of fake GDP.

So shouldnt the dollar value be now 7 not 9 , why/how has it risen against the rest of the world currencies recently last couple of months? Especially against strong currencies like the yen.
Shouldnt the market be assessing it that way ?

yet the market now sees the dollar as a $10 again .. how's that possible?

suggests to me the USD is artificially high and has been manipulated that way.
Note we're not talking about inflation - just the USD strength here.
 
So further to my last post(and perhaps flawed thinking) .. the US dollar should drop to its true value at some stage if left to its own devices, in which case gold should rise against it, as it has been kept artificially low.

In fact all commodities should be rising.
 
US Government to secure mortgage market with gold reserves

Lee Jones - 19-Sep-2008 The U.S. Treasury Department has promised “hundreds of billions” to save the US markets using its own gold reserves.

President Bush approved the use of existing authorities by Treasury secretary Hank Paulson to make available as necessary the assets of the Exchange Stabilisation Fund for up to $50 billion to buy more illiquid mortgage assets.
When the Government bailed out the the Government Sponsored Enterprises it promised to buy illiquid mortgage backed securities, but this announcement extends that pledge. The ESF was created after the Great Depression and uses the US gold reserve as collateral for financial stability.
Click to expand...

The trouble is, nobody knows what the real gold reserves are, or if they exist at all?
 
RAIDS OF INDIVIDUAL ACCOUNTS

This is so important a topic, that it deserves top billing!!! Hidden inside the AIG bailout funding package, surely hastily cobbled together, but carefully enough to include a totally corrupt clause, was a handy dandy clause that permits raids. The conglomerate financial firms are permitted at this point to use private individual brokerage account funds to relieve their own liquidity pressures. This represents unauthorized loans of your stock account assets. So next, if the conglomerate fails, your stock account is part of the bankruptcy process. Finally the corrupt USGovt and corrupt Wall Street houses are desperate enough to put into policy, stated by the US Federal Reserve, outlining the authorized raid of your money.

For the full article
http://http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie091908.html
 
Uncle Festivus said:
The trouble is, nobody knows what the real gold reserves are, or if they exist at all?
Click to expand...
The attached link is the official site for US Gold reserves:

http://www.fms.treas.gov/GOLD/current.html

Note at the bottom of the figures that the physical gold is "examined annually" not audited???

I had some information (but can not find it at the moment :mad:) which states that an official audit has not been held for umpteem years.
 
gemtrawler said:
So further to my last post(and perhaps flawed thinking) .. the US dollar should drop to its true value at some stage if left to its own devices, in which case gold should rise against it, as it has been kept artificially low.

In fact all commodities should be rising.
Click to expand...

Hm gooid point

But is it true that if US dollar drops and commoditie prices rise in effect, then in Australian Terms its a 0 effect?

thx

MS
 
refined silver said:
I think you're a bit mixed up! Its your job as a trader to say where its heading for the next few sessions.

We'll tell you where its ultimately headed as the system breaks down. Most gold bugs by definition are focussed on the bigger picture.
Click to expand...

I'm tired of saying where I tink it's going over the next few sessions... my job is actually to trade it... I post to fill in the time.... :) atween trades... and read posts.. mostly for amusement..
ultimately headed.... why nott..
Cheers
............kauri
 
US Government to secure mortgage market with gold reserves

Lee Jones - 19-Sep-2008 The U.S. Treasury Department has promised “hundreds of billions” to save the US markets using its own gold reserves.

President Bush approved the use of existing authorities by Treasury secretary Hank Paulson to make available as necessary the assets of the Exchange Stabilisation Fund for up to $50 billion to buy more illiquid mortgage assets.
When the Government bailed out the the Government Sponsored Enterprises it promised to buy illiquid mortgage backed securities, but this announcement extends that pledge. The ESF was created after the Great Depression and uses the US gold reserve as collateral for financial stability.
Click to expand...

Uncle Festivus said:
The trouble is, nobody knows what the real gold reserves are, or if they exist at all?
Click to expand...
Lol. Just lol.

Giving the only real worth the US system has left, to people who have bankrupted a nation.

No wonder the money markets nearly entirely collapsed with the Chinese rapidly trying to convert to Gold stores.
 
chops_a_must said:
Lol. Just lol.

Giving the only real worth the US system has left, to people who have bankrupted a nation.

No wonder the money markets nearly entirely collapsed with the Chinese rapidly trying to convert to Gold stores.
Click to expand...

And lol, where do they get their gold reserve from?? There isn't supposed to be much left in their vault, which hasn't been audited for decades!!!
 
My concern now, if it does get to that point, is that the ASX & ASIC halt trading for all shares, let alone goldies. Gold going through the roof and unable to trade???? Where's my bullion?
 
I think it's now time to buy physical gold but I need reassurance, that's honesty for you.

I'm about to call the Perth Mint and put a 6 figure sum into phyical gold.

Is there anything I've missed ?
 
MrBurns said:
I think it's now time to buy physical gold but I need reassurance, that's honesty for you.

I'm about to call the Perth Mint and put a 6 figure sum into phyical gold.

Is there anything I've missed ?
Click to expand...

The spread.

It's enourmous on the actual shiny stuff.

They also will log you as the holder... confiscation anyone?
 

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