Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[wavepicker]

Are too mate .....

I 'm waiting for an retest of the 872/3 area if it has the legs , might have seen it , but a little unconvincingly , under that is 851 , that's a nasty spot for a volatile swing . So I'll look and see if 872's can be tackled or whether the ball's been picked up . Below 851 I have 792 , horrid stuff , but it could happen . Then we have to consider whether it would sit there in a cycle range bound , but that is all presumption of where it could go .

What is missing are the drivers that could move it there . At present all I see is everyone gearing up for hyperinflation and a lot of rhetoric .

I understand your point ithatheekret re the drivers to make it move. I must say that I don't bother looking any more for reasons that might propogate an instruments movement because I have had a plain terrible track record after attempting to do so in the past.

Having said that I find it just plain amazing sometimes when the technicals are hinting at the possibility of a certain move but there is just no fundemental logic behind it. Sometimes this rationale has even persuaded me not to take certain trades in the past, only to have the market end up moving just as the technical were hinting after a snap announcement which coincided with the timing of the technicals.

I think one has to look to their strengths, and have complete faith in them and build contingencies around their trading plan as things ofcourse do go wrong. My strengths are certainly not in FA, probably never will be. For others it's the other way around, and yet for a select few they are gifted enough to exploit the best of both worlds in their trades.

Cheers

 

[>Apocalypto<]

The gold bull is still firmly intact, so dont' worry on that count

How about a french curve on the 10 year and you can see where we are going.

Don't agree with your thoughts on that picture. That shows to a price action that is in a long up move. but that things are changing it's has as much chance continuing as it does doing down from that chart. You purely assuming it will go up. Trends change. There is no support carved out on that chart so I think it's very hard to say yes it's going to continue right now.

 

[barrett]

Uncle Festivus posted a wedge on the weekend which I have as the dominant feature on my chart at the moment.. the support could be breaking here, but...... the break would absolutely have to be confirmed on the daily close..

I've been on the short side tonight& expecting to go short again, suspect downtrend could continue to next support in low 960s tonight.

As I write the price is in a holding pattern that should continue until 10:30pm Australian eastern time when there will be a speech/press conference from the ECB with the potential to shake things up one way or the other..

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Gold short term daily chart.

I am still bearish.

I still see a low target to the below trend line at 730 as a target but a thrust into the 600's is not out of the question.

minor up angle on the chart broken the next target is the low. I believe we will still see bargin buyer bulls continuing to come in when it hits a low or makes a new low. I think they will continue to get sold down as they have been. PA has still to hit a 45 degree angle down that shows price and time harmony. it could also find buyers and keep chewing up time froming a range with little ground found on both sides. I am leaning to the low being broken and a move down to the lower 700's this won't happen in a day to a week this will take time. time is need to break the confidence of the mid holders in the trend.

so off my chart we are off to the low, if broken with a rally to the low as a new resistance will confirm a push down to 800 then see were we go from there.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Uncle Festivus posted a wedge on the weekend which I have as the dominant feature on my chart at the moment.. the support could be breaking here, but...... the break would absolutely have to be confirmed on the daily close..

I've been on the short side tonight& expecting to go short again, suspect downtrend could continue to next support in low 960s tonight.

As I write the price is in a holding pattern that should continue until 10:30pm Australian eastern time when there will be a speech/press conference from the ECB with the potential to shake things up one way or the other..

Whether that changes to a descending triangle with $850 as support is now the short term question. FWIW, for tonight I have a discretionary long trade from $870 (from the waterfall @ 6pm & hourly candles), now stopped for break even. It still won't look solid for me for several weeks yet?

 

[wavepicker]

Gold short term daily chart.

I am still bearish.

I still see a low target to the below trend line at 730 as a target but a thrust into the 600's is not out of the question.

minor up angle on the chart broken the next target is the low. I believe we will still see bargin buyer bulls continuing to come in when it hits a low or makes a new low. I think they will continue to get sold down as they have been. PA has still to hit a 45 degree angle down that shows price and time harmony. it could also find buyers and keep chewing up time froming a range with little ground found on both sides. I am leaning to the low being broken and a move down to the lower 700's this won't happen in a day to a week this will take time. time is need to break the confidence of the mid holders in the trend.

so off my chart we are off to the low, if broken with a rally to the low as a new resistance will confirm a push down to 800 then see were we go from there.

Great trendline analysis Apocolypto. Describes the 3 ascending trendlines I mentioned very well. Totally agree with your chart! Some months back I mentioned we had a good case for a "mirror image foldback" correction of the last leg up from the consolidation both in terms of price and time. So far so good.

 

[MRC & Co]

Because most of the pundits thought the last upswing was the end of the correction except some(in this case mainly those following EW the same way I did) and stood their bearish stance.

Sure you can trade your upwing MRC, but it is a very poor strategy

because the one larger trend is down at present NOT up.

Yes, the long term(secular) trend of Gold is up. But the near term trend of precious metals is down.

A $40 swing in gold is quiet good in my book over the course of days, don't know about you? You stood on the sidelines while I took a swing. No problem if that's what your EW told you. You can keep catching the shorts, but it is not my strategy. Like I said, I could short plenty of dog stocks instead.

Trading an upswing in this manner is a poor strategy, ok. Works fine for me and for multiple others I know who have been trading for many more years than yourself and do so as their main source of income. Sometimes it is a break of a simple trendline, other times it is a break of a trendline relating to a pattern, but always in the direction of the larger trend. Check out CCOI (volume was decreasing on it's little move upwards just before and then increasing on the slight move downwards before the break) for a short pattern, or ENER which is forming a symmetrical triangle, well more like a tight flag on falling volume, or how about SOHU which broke out of an ascending triangle yesterday. Of course, 2 of these trendline patterns have only just occured, for now are in my favour, could of course turn, while 1 is still in the making but by the looks of it, will break one way soon, and I will only trade a long if it breaks to the upside. Cannot claim spotting all these charts myself, and thanks to those who pointed some of them out to me, you know who you are (these are just a very small portion of the examples).

Last two paragraphs? Huh? So the larger trend is down, but the long term (secular) trend is up, but in the near term, the trend is down........

I don't like EW, you do. I have nothing against it and if you can make it work for you, excellent, I have just never gravitated towards it, and since I am well in the green, have not felt the need to try something else. You appear to be looking for larger trends, whereas I am looking for high frequency, short timeframe pattern/trendline break swings, which I feel suits this kind of market environment. However, it has been so choppy lately I'm thinking pivot fades may be more appropriate

 

[refined silver]

As expected, last night the USD hit its 12 mth downtrend line from the underneath and bounced hard downward. This could be the end of the 2 month half hearted USD rally. Meanwhile the Euro did the opposite and bounced hard upwards from support.

If this is the case, gold will very soon have the wind at its back.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

As expected, last night the USD hit its 12 mth downtrend line from the underneath and bounced hard downward. This could be the end of the 2 month half hearted USD rally. Meanwhile the Euro did the opposite and bounced hard upwards from support.

If this is the case, gold will very soon have the wind at its back.

After viewing the USD daily chart, some thoughts on it.

sure the usd has hit the second shorter down angle and fell. which has also created a double top. on the other hand it's also forming a continuation pattern that could lead to more upside. I am not debating it's in a down trend not at all. the main line is still a fair distance away.

Based of the chart right now there are two possible situations playing out. time is need to confirm the direction.

Cheers

 

[refined silver]

Based of the chart right now there are two possible situations playing out. time is need to confirm the direction.

Cheers

True.

 

[explod]

As expected, last night the USD hit its 12 mth downtrend line from the underneath and bounced hard downward. This could be the end of the 2 month half hearted USD rally. Meanwhile the Euro did the opposite and bounced hard upwards from support.

If this is the case, gold will very soon have the wind at its back.

Of significance also, silver had a considerable rise against the g/p sideways. The HUI rose out of proportion to the g/p also.

These have been good indicators in the past of strong up moves.

We will await with interest.

 

[barrett]

It looks as if a diamond bottom formed during the speech, with high volume supporting the upmove within the formation. Because it then broke out to the upside, it would be very unusual for the formation to then fail. There has also been an upwards breakout out of a downtrend of sorts..

The case for a bullish whole-of-next-week still needs an 'up' close on the US market tonight to confirm yesterday's hammer.

spot gold, hourly

 

[explod]

It looks as if a diamond bottom formed during the speech, with high volume supporting the upmove within the formation. Because it then broke out to the upside, it would be very unusual for the formation to then fail. There has also been an upwards breakout out of a downtrend of sorts..

The case for a bullish whole-of-next-week still needs an 'up' close on the US market tonight to confirm yesterday's hammer.

spot gold, hourly

Yep, but the most telling indicator is the US$ index, which since its fall in march below 73.7 it has now after the last few days failed on six attempts to breach this resistance. It is now looking like a long pennant which must break one way or the other soon.

The dollar and gold have since 2001 moved in opposing directions.

But that gold will rise is not my assertion. The observations are only observations.

 

[barrett]

I am heavily long at 880 will buy more on a pullback

 

[ithatheekret]

The 860 drop was brief , are we game enough to call it supportive ?

Whatever ammo , cue card Ben has left in his cap gun , could be spent easily in the next few weeks , but I certainly didn't expect that sly old French fox to trump Bens ordinance list , neither did Ben I would imagine , bet he never thought he see a French cannon blazing away at him ..... strewth .

But then he never expected China to be hit by a mega quake , which will take an awful lot of resources in repairs , add food costs to it ....... on a global scale and whammo inflation morfs into a monster .

I wonder if he's looking back at the Bear Sterns bailout in hindsight ..... ouch .
Maybe that's why he's making out like he's the Treasury head instead of the Fed . , then again Hank is rather silent lately , there's always a good side to everything .

I cracked up when I saw POG sally back above 872 on the London close , had me worried a little ....... only because I thought traders had taken in Bens words seriously . The only thing they should seriously do , is launch him like a sputnik a.s.a.p.

Welcome to the shredder queue Ben , now get on the end of the line , because the inflation show is about to start and it's fully booked for months in advance . He should know this though , he pencilled the bookings in .

 

[barrett]

closing @881 on the persistent selling, will buy back in if a bottom is formed

 

[barrett]

Welcome to the shredder queue Ben , now get on the end of the line , because the inflation show is about to start and it's fully booked for months in advance . He should know this though , he pencilled the bookings in .

exactly.. the show is about to begin and no-one seems to know it... and what happened to gold as an inflation hedge? The public are uninterested so long as the price is going down or sideways..

Support... UF's wedgy that's what I'm looking at.. sorry UF
Should really be waiting for an up candle tonight.. I'm just impatient

wedge in red, sorry about all the spaghetti
the curvy red line coming up underneath is the 300dma that supported the gold bull since '01

 

[rederob]

barrett

That red snake seems to be forgotten by the bears who hanker for sub $700 gold.
Not only is gold well supported technically, the fundamentals underpinning it are much stronger than they have been for years:
A dollar hedge
An inflation hedge
A tangible asset
A friend of oil.

As an infrequent "buyer" of equities, I won't be dabbling in gold stocks for a while as my view is that the US market will falter further and liquidate positions to free up more cash over the next quarter.
I believe gold at sub$800 is a distinct possibility, and if were to be at that price come September, I shall add more Lihir, which I consider the best long term value of the local goldies.

 

[barrett]

barrett

That red snake seems to be forgotten by the bears who hanker for sub $700 gold.
Not only is gold well supported technically, the fundamentals underpinning it are much stronger than they have been for years:
A dollar hedge
An inflation hedge
A tangible asset
A friend of oil.

As an infrequent "buyer" of equities, I won't be dabbling in gold stocks for a while as my view is that the US market will falter further and liquidate positions to free up more cash over the next quarter.
I believe gold at sub$800 is a distinct possibility, and if were to be at that price come September, I shall add more Lihir, which I consider the best long term value of the local goldies.

I wouldn't mind stocking up at <$700... but if the 300DMA is reached I'll be filling the truck for better or worse.
The fundamentals.. good enough for me to convert my entire superannuation into bullion.. sounds crazy but so is the gold price - crazily low from a fundamental point of view.

I'm with you on the equities, and Lihir. Will buy juniors selectively as takeover targets, the development risks and costs for go-it-alone outfits seem just too high especially costs in the domestic deposits.

 

[explod]

On my hand written/drawn gold chart that is now mostly round my office wall I notice that the hammers (as we had overnight) when in the shadow of a previous down candle the tail usually points the direction of the next move.

On that basis no one should get excited because the move tonight may be down.

A good bug is cold blooded; I think. Or is that because they beat me to a pulp.