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Re: GOLD Where is it heading?
this is nuts...
just touch $730
think it will be $800 by this month...
this is nuts...
just touch $730
think it will be $800 by this month...
Gold Price - Where is it heading?
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RichKid
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading?
There appear to be some parallels between the recent surge and the previous surge through 500- worth a look? Any points of difference? (the crowd does have some memory of these things).
powerkoala said:
There appear to be some parallels between the recent surge and the previous surge through 500- worth a look? Any points of difference? (the crowd does have some memory of these things).
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading?
rederob
I had a look at the gold chart.
It is a parabolic pattern. Parabolics tend to collapse. It is simply a matter of who blinks first, and who is the fastest draw (execution to exit)
Gold from 1921 to 2006 = 3.5% or it's central value
Gold from 2000 to 2006 = 16.1% it's current compounded return
Gold from 1980 to 1999 = (-4.5%) it's previous underperformance
With the BOJ set to raise interest rates earlier, there would be far better opportunities available in Japan......their real estate market is starting to warm up ................
As it was the liquidity from Japan that created a large component of world liquidity...........which bled largely into gold, as that liquidity is removed, how resilient will gold remain?
As regards gold, the markets are abuzz with speculation that the China bank, and possibly other Asian banks are contemplating buying gold.
A number of points;
If the Chinese are as canny as you believe, why would they pay a speculative price for gold?
You would pay the "investment value" if there is such a price.
Why would they want gold in the first place?
Based on the fact that their economy is expansionary, and their policy is expansionary, and gold would be contractionary, why the contradiction?
China's requirements are in energy, far more than some inert lump of metal.
90% of China's energy is currently supplied by coal. This also has given them 16 of the 20 most polluted cities in the world.
Their stated mission is for energy, and all capital flows confirm that policy.
Traders buying gold in anticipation of demand for gold from China had better not hold their breath..................
Therefore, while rampant speculation has taken gold to $720+ that in no way would entice me to buy gold..............quite the opposite.
jog on
d998
rederob
I had a look at the gold chart.
It is a parabolic pattern. Parabolics tend to collapse. It is simply a matter of who blinks first, and who is the fastest draw (execution to exit)
Gold from 1921 to 2006 = 3.5% or it's central value
Gold from 2000 to 2006 = 16.1% it's current compounded return
Gold from 1980 to 1999 = (-4.5%) it's previous underperformance
With the BOJ set to raise interest rates earlier, there would be far better opportunities available in Japan......their real estate market is starting to warm up ................
As it was the liquidity from Japan that created a large component of world liquidity...........which bled largely into gold, as that liquidity is removed, how resilient will gold remain?
As regards gold, the markets are abuzz with speculation that the China bank, and possibly other Asian banks are contemplating buying gold.
A number of points;
If the Chinese are as canny as you believe, why would they pay a speculative price for gold?
You would pay the "investment value" if there is such a price.
Why would they want gold in the first place?
Based on the fact that their economy is expansionary, and their policy is expansionary, and gold would be contractionary, why the contradiction?
China's requirements are in energy, far more than some inert lump of metal.
90% of China's energy is currently supplied by coal. This also has given them 16 of the 20 most polluted cities in the world.
Their stated mission is for energy, and all capital flows confirm that policy.
Traders buying gold in anticipation of demand for gold from China had better not hold their breath..................
Therefore, while rampant speculation has taken gold to $720+ that in no way would entice me to buy gold..............quite the opposite.
jog on
d998
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading?
I tend to agree.... particularly in physical commodity markets.
...and why do people get in all a flutter when gold starts moving? There are similar parbolas all over the financial and commodity markets without so much as a second thought. Why does gold do this to people?
Gold has had a great move in the last year, but Natural Gas has had the same sort of move and back again in the same period...nary a whisper.
Soybeans had a similar move last year, nearly doubling inside of six months... nobodies even heard of soybeans... I could go on.
So why Gold?
ducati916 said:
I tend to agree.... particularly in physical commodity markets.
...and why do people get in all a flutter when gold starts moving? There are similar parbolas all over the financial and commodity markets without so much as a second thought. Why does gold do this to people?
Gold has had a great move in the last year, but Natural Gas has had the same sort of move and back again in the same period...nary a whisper.
Soybeans had a similar move last year, nearly doubling inside of six months... nobodies even heard of soybeans... I could go on.
So why Gold?
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading?
But would you like to do another of your detailed analysis so that we can see what range prices for gold we can look forward to over the next year or so?
Or would you prefer a brief history lesson: Recall my challenge to you -
For the moment, I am hoping for another $50 or greater retrace in gold near term, but will not hold my breath: Corrections in the metals complex as a whole are running to about 3 days instead of 3 weeks or more.
Wayne
I will put you into ducati’s camp. Do you recall an earlier post where you mooted a $500 correction and I replied:
My concluding remark for now is that playing the markets means taking a forward view, and that view can be based on your decision to trade a safe “yield” equity, or a highly speculative futures contract. You enter the trade with a “view”, never a “knowledge”. Posting that “view” can mean a loss or gain of “reputation”, but in the case of ducati, he has my respect for at least trying to work out gold: A little knowledge can be a dangerous thing.
Not asking you to buy gold as I am happy to do that.ducati916 said:
But would you like to do another of your detailed analysis so that we can see what range prices for gold we can look forward to over the next year or so?
Or would you prefer a brief history lesson: Recall my challenge to you -
And one of your multitude of sweeping conclusions:
In the light of the fact that gold has breached your preferred upper range of $720 I think it only fair to give you another opportunity to prove yourself. On the other hand, I will concede utter defeat if gold’s “parabola” collapses and by year’s end POG is trading under $800 (which I believe is generous in that my expectation was for gold to be near that level by year’s end, rather than be as “support”).
For the moment, I am hoping for another $50 or greater retrace in gold near term, but will not hold my breath: Corrections in the metals complex as a whole are running to about 3 days instead of 3 weeks or more.
Wayne
I will put you into ducati’s camp. Do you recall an earlier post where you mooted a $500 correction and I replied:
My concluding remark for now is that playing the markets means taking a forward view, and that view can be based on your decision to trade a safe “yield” equity, or a highly speculative futures contract. You enter the trade with a “view”, never a “knowledge”. Posting that “view” can mean a loss or gain of “reputation”, but in the case of ducati, he has my respect for at least trying to work out gold: A little knowledge can be a dangerous thing.
RichKid
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading?
COT chart of Gold:
If a valley bottom in that red line signals a peak then we are due for one shortly , but then everyone's expecting a correction, may not last long though and we may be away again. (caution, I have no idea how to read these graphs properly, just my guess).
COT chart of Gold:
If a valley bottom in that red line signals a peak then we are due for one shortly , but then everyone's expecting a correction, may not last long though and we may be away again. (caution, I have no idea how to read these graphs properly, just my guess).
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading?
RichKid
I think your analysis was spot on.
There are a few people that try to make sense of COT data, and it can tell you about the levels of interest of the various players. It can also hint at near term direction. As a predicative tool it is about as useful as a rain gauge in the shower.
I am sure I saw it when I was reading some of Rorschach's work.nizar said:
RichKid
I think your analysis was spot on.
There are a few people that try to make sense of COT data, and it can tell you about the levels of interest of the various players. It can also hint at near term direction. As a predicative tool it is about as useful as a rain gauge in the shower.
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading?
Gold @ $685, has broken my range trend, I have no idea where its headed, up oviously but my trnd has been broken
Siggghhhhhh and it was looking like such a reliable trend, $420-$440 ($20), $440-$480 ($40), $480-$540 ($60), $540 -$620 ($80), $620 - $720 ($100), next was $720 - $840, but gold had to hold above $700, oh well back to the drawing board.
Gold @ $685, has broken my range trend, I have no idea where its headed, up oviously but my trnd has been broken
Siggghhhhhh and it was looking like such a reliable trend, $420-$440 ($20), $440-$480 ($40), $480-$540 ($60), $540 -$620 ($80), $620 - $720 ($100), next was $720 - $840, but gold had to hold above $700, oh well back to the drawing board.
Kipp
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading?
YT do you know what Ni and Zn are currently trading at? Kitco is ha assed up at the moment. (Well, I'm hoping Ni isn't at $3.30/lb!!!)
I was watching gold hover at 720 all day thinking how crazy people were selling off BMO... dammit!YOUNG_TRADER said:Gold @ $685, has broken my range trend, I have no idea where its headed, up oviously but my trnd has been broken
Siggghhhhhh and it was looking like such a reliable trend, $420-$440 ($20), $440-$480 ($40), $480-$540 ($60), $540 -$620 ($80), $620 - $720 ($100), next was $720 - $840, but gold had to hold above $700, oh well back to the drawing board.
YT do you know what Ni and Zn are currently trading at? Kitco is ha assed up at the moment. (Well, I'm hoping Ni isn't at $3.30/lb!!!)
RichKid
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading?
Nizar, It's from Upperman's site, futures traders know more about this than us mortals: http://www.upperman.com/basic-cot-share/cotfree.htm
Most of what I've learnt is from ASF, that was just a guess btw, was the highest probability guess imo, just lucky that it coincided, not exactly as reliable as for some other markets these days (so much speculation going on, it's easy to trade these instruments (even if indirectly) now as well, everyones on the web and there's so much wealth in the world), WayneL has been particularly helpful in explaining these things to us novices, if you search this site and use 'COT' or 'Commitment of Traders' you'll get some gems, some references in the FX (AUD/USD/DX) threads as well.
I had trouble finding free cot charts so I googled it and Upperman was the best so far, many other sources. It gives you and idea of who is really behind these moves. No wonder they're running scared in London, I've read that the banks have taken some hits (see Kitco). Quite a few books on COT, Larry Williams has put one out recently as well. A system in itself I think- see Upperman. Wayne also had some old commentary on COT charts on his old website, not sure if it's still there.
Btw, I think this is a wave 4 correction in pog in EW speak. If not and it keeps going lower on volume then that's the end of it all. The greater the volatility the greater the risk of it ending. Going by the timeframes I'll be surprised if the trend doesn't end in the next 3-4 wks, I'm happy to see 675 holding as it ranged there a bit earlier.
rederob said:
Nizar, It's from Upperman's site, futures traders know more about this than us mortals: http://www.upperman.com/basic-cot-share/cotfree.htm
Most of what I've learnt is from ASF, that was just a guess btw, was the highest probability guess imo, just lucky that it coincided, not exactly as reliable as for some other markets these days (so much speculation going on, it's easy to trade these instruments (even if indirectly) now as well, everyones on the web and there's so much wealth in the world), WayneL has been particularly helpful in explaining these things to us novices, if you search this site and use 'COT' or 'Commitment of Traders' you'll get some gems, some references in the FX (AUD/USD/DX) threads as well.
I had trouble finding free cot charts so I googled it and Upperman was the best so far, many other sources. It gives you and idea of who is really behind these moves. No wonder they're running scared in London, I've read that the banks have taken some hits (see Kitco). Quite a few books on COT, Larry Williams has put one out recently as well. A system in itself I think- see Upperman. Wayne also had some old commentary on COT charts on his old website, not sure if it's still there.
Btw, I think this is a wave 4 correction in pog in EW speak. If not and it keeps going lower on volume then that's the end of it all. The greater the volatility the greater the risk of it ending. Going by the timeframes I'll be surprised if the trend doesn't end in the next 3-4 wks, I'm happy to see 675 holding as it ranged there a bit earlier.
RichKid
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading?
btw, if this is the end of the current move higher for gold I'd be looking for that red COT line to reach the red peaks, a nice flat line can be drawn to line them up. That should signal the end of the correction. Then onwards to 1000 imo, but let's wait and see without being too wishful.
btw, if this is the end of the current move higher for gold I'd be looking for that red COT line to reach the red peaks, a nice flat line can be drawn to line them up. That should signal the end of the correction. Then onwards to 1000 imo, but let's wait and see without being too wishful.
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading?
Be a BIG BEAR and hope for $650 - then you can probably put the $1000 price to bed with goldielocks.
Must say that having watched silver and gold closely for half the day, silver's disconnection from gold (in that it continues to drop when POG occasionally retraces) is disconcerting.
Soon we will have the New York giants of the stock exchange open their doors. As I have an early start in the morning, I will forecast POG to return to plus$700 by NY market close on the same basis that I forecast the weather - nothing in particular.
Nothing like being a baby bear in wolve's clothing.RichKid said:
Be a BIG BEAR and hope for $650 - then you can probably put the $1000 price to bed with goldielocks.
Must say that having watched silver and gold closely for half the day, silver's disconnection from gold (in that it continues to drop when POG occasionally retraces) is disconcerting.
Soon we will have the New York giants of the stock exchange open their doors. As I have an early start in the morning, I will forecast POG to return to plus$700 by NY market close on the same basis that I forecast the weather - nothing in particular.
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading?
rederob, I have been watching gold too and just notice a spike up then when the US market opened, since I am a complete novice I have no idea if the graph I'm looking at is combined over multiple markets or what, but that little spike back up seems promising....
rederob, I have been watching gold too and just notice a spike up then when the US market opened, since I am a complete novice I have no idea if the graph I'm looking at is combined over multiple markets or what, but that little spike back up seems promising....
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading?
now I'm hooked on the chart you are looking at and it's ticking quickly higher
......you ratbagctp6360 said:
now I'm hooked on the chart you are looking at and it's ticking quickly higher
RichKid
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading?
Hi rederob,
yep, I keep changing my view as the market changes, feel a lot more comfortable with doing that after reading Nick Radge's book,
'Adaptive' Analysis he calls it. On the larger charts a fall to around 650 wouldn't be too bad, just another correction in a larger uptrend. The strong recent moves suggest that once it resumes the uptrend (if it does), it wont have much trouble going that high again. Doesn't matter eitherway to my account as long as I have my stops in place and diversify. Might get stopped out of my gold stocks this week though!
Check out Colin Twiggs's Gold chart on the Incredible Charts website, I find his commentary very useful.
Interesting what you say about Silver, maybe it's less prone to noise than Gold since Silver is not as fashionable, so maybe we'll get clearer signals from intermarket analysis?
rederob said:
Hi rederob,
yep, I keep changing my view as the market changes, feel a lot more comfortable with doing that after reading Nick Radge's book,
'Adaptive' Analysis he calls it. On the larger charts a fall to around 650 wouldn't be too bad, just another correction in a larger uptrend. The strong recent moves suggest that once it resumes the uptrend (if it does), it wont have much trouble going that high again. Doesn't matter eitherway to my account as long as I have my stops in place and diversify. Might get stopped out of my gold stocks this week though!
Check out Colin Twiggs's Gold chart on the Incredible Charts website, I find his commentary very useful.
Interesting what you say about Silver, maybe it's less prone to noise than Gold since Silver is not as fashionable, so maybe we'll get clearer signals from intermarket analysis?
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading?
So gold is down - good.
It needs another tilt at $650.
Richkid, Unless Radge's book can tell you what the price of gold will be before it collapses, it would be as useful to me as the weekend AFL or League commentaries.
I try to get a holistic view of things and then work out what impact that will have. My view is that gold will run a lot higher, a heck of a lot higher.
But that does not mean last week's $720 was not the top, and that we are on a slippery slope down.
Just that, to me, the market's fundamentals are suggestive that for gold specifically we are not within cooee of the top.
I am awaiting a more definitie analysis from ducati, of course, so that I can be more expansive on reasons why.
Well, they forecast rain and the sun is shining!rederob said:
So gold is down - good.
It needs another tilt at $650.
Richkid, Unless Radge's book can tell you what the price of gold will be before it collapses, it would be as useful to me as the weekend AFL or League commentaries.
I try to get a holistic view of things and then work out what impact that will have. My view is that gold will run a lot higher, a heck of a lot higher.
But that does not mean last week's $720 was not the top, and that we are on a slippery slope down.
Just that, to me, the market's fundamentals are suggestive that for gold specifically we are not within cooee of the top.
I am awaiting a more definitie analysis from ducati, of course, so that I can be more expansive on reasons why.
Sean K
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Re: GOLD Where is it heading?
US$s being almost worthless in a year or two will be enough for $2000 gold.
US$s being almost worthless in a year or two will be enough for $2000 gold.
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