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Gold Price - Where is it heading?

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

brerwallabi said:
There is a bear out there, anyone seen him?
he's hiding in his cave after losing a fight with a very mean and nasty bull. He'll recover and get his revenge one day but!
 
Rogers Says Gold to Reach $1,000 as Commodities Soar (Update2)

April 19 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, the former George Soros partner who foresaw the start of a commodity rally in 1999, said the boom in energy and raw material prices will endure, driving gold to a record $1,000 an ounce.

``The shortest bull market for commodities lasted 15 years, the longest 23 years,'' Rogers, 63, said in an interview. So if history is any guide, ``they've got a long way to go.''

Prices of crude oil, copper and zinc are at records as speculators and hedge funds seek investments delivering greater returns than stocks and bonds. Global supplies have been curbed by lack of investment and output disruptions, making it harder to meet demand led by China, the world's fastest growing major economy. The Goldman Sachs index of 24 commodities reached an all-time high yesterday.

``Supply and demand is terribly out of balance for nearly all commodities right now,'' Rogers said in Singapore April 17. ``This is not a bubble.''

Bullion for immediate delivery reached a 25-year high of $624.80 an ounce today, still below an all-time peak of $850 for spot gold in 1980. Crude oil rose to a record $71.60 a barrel in New York yesterday and copper gained the most in nine years.

Price `Attainable'

``Gold at $1,000 is attainable, but to achieve it we'll have to see a further deterioration in the macro-economic environment leading to a decline in the dollar,'' said Hong Kong-based Alastair McIntyre, head of marketing at ScotiaMocatta, the bullion unit of the Bank of Nova Scotia.

``Jim Rogers is a respected figure as he saw the move in commodity prices before it happened,'' he said by phone today.

The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index has increased 13 percent this year, compared with a 4.8 percent gain in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index. Benchmark U.S. Treasuries have lost about 1.6 percent, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes.

``Nearly everything makes a new all-time high in a bull market,'' said Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum hedge fund with Soros in the 1970s. He didn't predict when gold would reach $1,000 an ounce. The precious metal traded at $623.10 an ounce at 1:45 p.m. Singapore time today.

China's booming economy is fueling demand for energy and raw materials needed for factories, homes and cars. The nation, home to 1.3 billion people, grew 10.2 percent in the first quarter, up from 9.9 percent in the previous three months. China is the world's biggest consumer of steel, copper and zinc and the second-largest user of energy.

Copper Gains

Copper prices in Shanghai have gained 88 percent in the past year to a record on expectations of increased demand. Gold prices in India, the world's largest consumer of the metal, have increased about 35 percent in the past year.

Lack of investment in new supplies of commodities is driving up prices.

``Nobody has discovered a major oilfield in over 35 years. All the major oilfields are in decline,'' said Rogers. ``Unless someone does something quickly, the price of oil is going to go a lot higher over the next decade.''

He depicted a similar scenario for metals. ``Nobody has opened any major mines anywhere in the world for many years and it takes a long time to bring new mines on stream,'' he said. ``All the old mines are in the process of being depleted and demand is continuing to grow.''

Farm Commodities

Agricultural commodities may offer new investment opportunities. ``That's where prices have moved least.'' Cotton prices are more than 50 percent below their all-time high; soybeans are 60 percent below their peak and sugar 80 percent, Rogers said. ``These agricultural commodities are very cheap on any historical basis,'' he said.

Rogers, who lives in New York, traveled through China by motorcycle and car as part of trips around the world to pick up investment ideas. The journeys culminated in the books ``Investment Biker'' and ``Adventure Capitalist.'' Rogers also wrote the book ``Hot Commodities.''

The commodity index fund he started in late 1998 has more than tripled.
 
Re: Rogers Says Gold to Reach $1,000 as Commodities Soar (Update2)

Below is the key point to every1 out there that thinks commodities will come crashing down...

Some people say its different this time, but ITS NOT, this boom, like those previously will last btw 15-23yrs...

Every correction is a chance to top up...

``The shortest bull market for commodities lasted 15 years, the longest 23 years,'' Rogers, 63, said in an interview. So if history is any guide, ``they've got a long way to go.''
 
Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Ducati
Test your memory banks if you dare.
ducati
I have a strong view that gold's next upleg will be relatively swift and strong and carry the gold price decisively over $600 before end June this year, and that further uplegs will see it at/near/over $700 by year's end.
So that's one forecast down.
The $700 figure is presently a mere $55 away as I write.
I believe I said that $800 POG would be seen in 2007, although at the rate of present incline, that number is in jeopardy this year.
Re-reading your analysis of gold was interesting. If you claim to hang your hat on fundamental analysis you you would do well to understand more about the practice of mining and less about the chart of accounts when it comes to the commodity sector.
I think I should end this post with a personal "gloat", just so ducati can tell everyone how these can't be believed because..........
Try 45,000 OXR shares at an average entry price of $1.27 ;)
 
Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

YOUNG_TRADER said:
Keeping to my very simple theory, Gold has now hit my upper range of $620, which means a new (now $100) range has begun being $620 - $720,

I expect gold to trade around $615-$620 for a day or 2 before moving up strongly to $720,


Hmmm gold dropped below $615, I suppose that as in the previous range $540 was my base an it dipped a few % below that in that range, given that $620 is my base 2% below is around $608, so well its still within my range,

I would be extremely worried if it fell below $610 for a sustained period,
So long as it stays $615 - $620 for a bit my range trade up to $720 is still in tact
 
Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

YOUNG_TRADER said:
I would be extremely worried if it fell below $610 for a sustained period,
So long as it stays $615 - $620 for a bit my range trade up to $720 is still in tact
Young_Trader
Don't worry too much about the present numbers.
Gold remains in its annual "doldrums" so can meander a bit.
The recent sharp uspside was usual for this early part of the year, as we look for strong offtake to carry markets higher, and that is always in the last half.
If gold simply sat at the presnt price for a few more months (which it will not) then we are still looking at a plus$700 well before year's end and a chance $800 will be taken out.
 
Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

rederob

Apologies, only just saw this post today;

Ducati
Test your memory banks if you dare.

Quote:
Originally Posted by rederob 25th-February-2006, 03:53 PM
ducati
I have a strong view that gold's next upleg will be relatively swift and strong and carry the gold price decisively over $600 before end June this year, and that further uplegs will see it at/near/over $700 by year's end.



So that's one forecast down.
The $700 figure is presently a mere $55 away as I write.
I believe I said that $800 POG would be seen in 2007, although at the rate of present incline, that number is in jeopardy this year.
Re-reading your analysis of gold was interesting. If you claim to hang your hat on fundamental analysis you you would do well to understand more about the practice of mining and less about the chart of accounts when it comes to the commodity sector.
I think I should end this post with a personal "gloat", just so ducati can tell everyone how these can't be believed because..........
Try 45,000 OXR shares at an average entry price of $1.27

If I remember correctly, my assertion was that gold does not possess an intrinsic value . This I still stand behind. Speculation can take a price of an asset almost anywhere, and speculation is rampant in gold.

A large component of speculation in gold is/was supported via the Yen carry trade, which will come to an end as the BOJ ends the policy of liquidity.
April/May are the *marriage* months in India/Asia, and they are actually huge buyers of gold (larger than I realized).

This of course can be interpreted in two ways;
One, that when this years demand is satisfied, prices drop back, or two, it provides a *technical* signal for speculators to jump long.

My range calculation was approximately $400+ to $720 odd.
I see nothing currently to change my view.

As regards investing in the shares of gold stocks (producers) this strategy is fraught with additional difficulties. The reason is of course the gold ETF. This makes it very easy to speculate or invest, directly in gold itself.
Once, unless you traded gold futures, you had to gain exposure via the producers, I believe that many producers are lagging the moves in gold quite substantially and this could be the reason why.

As regards knowledge of *mining* over knowledge of *accounting* well I know exactly which one will return consistently safe excess returns, and it certainly doesn't rely on breaking a fingernail.

jog on
d998
 
Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

ducati

I sincerely appreciate your reply.
Thank you.

I respect our differing positions and agree that the commodity sector is neither for the faint hearted nor fundamentally illiterate.

All market trading carries risk: That is a given. My position is that if one has a reasonable understanding of the risk, and a very good understanding of the probabilities surrounding one's investments in that market, the risk is worth taking.

Since your last post in this thread, I have added $30k in gold equities to my portfolio, via OXR and LHG. My protfolio of CHESS holdings is below (note that I hold 50k CWT for yield):
 

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Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

rederob

Since your last post in this thread, I have added $30k in gold equities to my portfolio, via OXR and LHG. My protfolio of CHESS holdings is below (note that I hold 50k CWT for yield):

Well you are a gold bull, no question. However I suspect you were also a gold bull while the majority were gold bears, thus you have a comfortable cushion built into your positions.

For those just jumping onto the bandwagon due to *technical* studies, the volatility will play havoc with many of their positions.

jog on
d998
 
Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

rederob said:
Since your last post in this thread, I have added $30k in gold equities to my portfolio, via OXR and LHG.

Don't regard OXR as a gold stock now, on my simple cals
gold will produce $30million of OXR profit this year
zinc $310million
copper $250million

Gold will be about 5% of OXR profits, also gold was the poor performer of the OXR quarterly with costs up and grades down.
This will probably improve but still stay behind copper and zinc revenues
 
Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

The Indians have been avoiding buying gold as per this article but demand is not decreasing. Marriage season is almost over in India will the Indians replace their stocks now before gold goes $700 plus? It could be a busy few weeks again as some believe we have already had the gold correction on the way to $700, this is the consolidation that has occurred of recent months.

Gold as anchor
Ruchi Ahuja / New Delhi April 14, 2006
GOLD: The metal’s price is soaring worldwide, even as hoards begin trumbling out of closets in India

All that is gold does not glitter. Ask jewellers. The glitter is missing from their cash boxes, despite the beginning of the wedding season, with fresh gold buying down 30-35 per cent.

How come? It’s a rare occurrence. People, with a penchant for gold buying ahead of marriages, are using their hidden hoards of the metal instead of buying expensive new stock.

Coins, biscuits, old jewellery, even bars ”” they’re emerging from secret lockaways to be molten and reshaped into new jewellery. In a country where tradition runs deep and some memories of asset-losses on account of financial chaos run even deeper, gold serves as a treasured “store of value”.

“Overall, more hoarded gold is expected to come out this season,” says T Gnansekar, an independent analyst.

Look at the figures. Recorded Mumbai demand is down to 500-600 kg per day from a normal 800-900 kg around this time of the year, according to a local trader.

“Following the sudden spike in prices overseas, domestic demand has seen a decline,” says Suresh Hundia, director of Hundia Exports, and former president of Bombay Bullion Association (BBA).

But the gold jewellery craze is not exactly dipping, it seems (even though diamonds are gaining share among the younger lot). Domestic gold prices are touching new all-time highs almost every second day, in tandem with multi-year highs overseas.

Domestic gold saw a high of Rs 8,770 per 10 gm earlier this week in Mumbai, as overseas spot vaulted the psychological mark of $600 per troy ounce to touch a new 25-year high.

“A small correction can be seen, but it will only support fresh buying and thus, further price rise. Overseas spot is expected to touch $620-a-troy-ounce level, and the domestic price, Rs 9,100 per 10 gm,” says Prithviraj Kotheri, a Mumbai-based trader.

If that’s not much higher than current levels, according to Hundia, it’s because current stock levels are “comfortable”.

But the global scenario could change swiftly. The possibility of gold going even higher is outlined by GFMS’s Gold Survey 2006, which predicts an investment-driven bull run.

Says GFMS’s head Philip Klapwijk, “Levels safely over $600 are now in our sights and further hefty gains over the next year or two are quite possible ”” in the right circumstances, even the 1980 high of $850 could be overtaken.”

An interesting point, however, is that the Indian gold price has been converging with the international price. “The differential is down to Rs 34 per 100 gm today compared with Rs 60 per 100 gm a month ago,” says V. Sivaramakrishnan, executive director of Dubai-based Kombench DMCC.

One plausible reason is that the supplies are from local sources, so the “import premium” is in decline as India’s own hoarded gold tumbles out.

The bigger point is that gold in the modern age is not very mobile compared to other assets. Most of the gold in India stays put, and is hard to put to “flight”. Moreover, “Indians cannot do without gold” according to Harmesh Arora, a Mumbai-based bullion wholesaler and former vice-president of BBA. So gold’s stability, by and large, is assured.

Consumption demand is likely to stay stable too; the marriage season in the country began April 12 and the auspicious occasion of Akshayatritiya, which sees many gold-laden marriages, is on April 30.

What’s more, hoarded stocks will run thin at some point. So traders expect demand to go back to earlier levels.

“India will consume about 1,000 tonnes of yellow metal this year, compared with 850 tonnes last year,” predicts Asheesh Majumdar, chief general manager, MMTC. Investment demand will lead the figures, he adds.

The metal that John Maynard Keynes thought so lowly of could well turn in a surprise ”” as a rational bet.
 
Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Gold, silver finish week with a sparkle
Gold closes above $654 on weakened dollar, while silver surges more than a dollar on the launch of a new ETF fund.
April 28, 2006: 2:00 PM EDT


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Gold futures in New York shot to a 25-year high to close above $654 on Friday, buoyed by a falling dollar and a pop in silver triggered by the launch of the first silver-backed security, dealers said.

Gold jumped 2.8 percent and silver surged 4 percent during the session as players built positions in the precious metals ahead of the weekend. Higher oil prices and tensions over Iran's nuclear capabilities also fueled the advance.

...story at http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/28/markets/gold_high.reut/
 
Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

rederob 21st-April-2006 10:11 PM said:
If gold simply sat at the present price for a few more months (which it will not) then we are still looking at a plus$700 well before year's end and a chance $800 will be taken out.
It's important to adjust future forecasts in the light of changing circumstances.
But I think in this case the probabilities are just a lot higher and the time frames too short.
Looks like $700 by mid year and a chance that $900 will be taken out.
Gold has lagged base metal rises in percentage terms in the past year and if it plays "catch up" then $800 is likely in the last quarter, with a late tilt at $900 running into Xmas.
There is always the "ducati" factor to consider, and one can always fall off one's bike!
 
Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

"Iran continues to provoke conflict and the gold price is reflecting that sense of uneasiness," said Peter Spina, an analyst at GoldSeek.com. "Iran knows they have leverage here, especially with oil above $70 and the U.S. dollar becoming ever so vulnerable." So "all indications are that the geopolitical tensions will continue to support gold at this juncture, with the breakdown in the U.S. dollar adding even more ammo to the run," he said. The greenback dropped to an 11-month low against the euro Friday, and a three-month low against Japan's yen. See Currencies. The per-ounce price of $700 is now achievable in May, with gold likely continuing to find great support on the downside around $600, Spina said.

If u think gold is firing now, wait until USD falls and china dumps it and buys gold, this move has been highly anticipated by many for months as chinese reserves of US875billion are 75% in the US dollar and treasury notes, which have fallen by about 3% in the past year while (USD has appreciated somewhat) gold is up by about 40%....

UAE and Saudi banks will diversify their reserves into much less volatile currency, the Euro, and USD will tumble...

THe balance of article: http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?column=Metals+Stocks&siteid=mktw&dist=

Unhedged producers definately the way to go...

China’s central bank prints yuan in exchange for foreign currency obtained from foreign trade, foreign direct investment, and speculative hot money, and amassed a treasure chest of $875.1 billion of foreign currency reserves in March. Gold dealers expect Beijing to eventually swap depreciating US bonds into gold. Beijing holds 19 million ounces of gold, which only represents 1.1% of its reserves. When asked about a possible shift from the US dollar, People's Bank of China chief Zhou Xiaochuan said on April 22nd, "I think China is among the best in managing our foreign exchange reserves. We get good returns in safe, liquid assets. We can adjust very quickly." But gold is up 45% while 10-year US Treasury notes have lost 3.2% in the past year, and according to the latest data, Beijing has not yet moved!

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Dorsch/apr242006.html

ALso from the same article:

Surging Chinese credit growth, a widening trade surplus and double-digit economic expansion, is lending support to explosive Chinese demand for minerals from abroad. China is the world's largest customer for copper, and its demand grew 9% last year, consuming 22% of the world's supply. China became a net importer of zinc for the first time in 2005, when it imported 620,816 tons of zinc, equal to about 6% of world demand, as its steel production jumped 25 percent. Both metals have gone parabolic, with Beijing caught in a supply squeeze.
 
Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

MARKETWAVES said:
Interesting Video -
Titled :
What The Price Gold is Telling Us ...........

Here's the Link

http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul319.html

------------------------------------------------------------------

Howdy Markets? How's it going over there? Hope all is well.
Thanks for the links, good stuff.
Looks like next stop for Gold is 700!! I wouldn't have believed that a few months ago- "a trend continues in force until...."
 
Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Barrick, the world’s largest gold producer since taking over Placer Dome, said at the release of its first quarter results it had reduced the Placer Dome hedge position by 5.7 million oz at a cost of $1.2bn as of May 03.

"The impact of closing out 5.7 million oz of gold hedges is to increase future gold revenues, as we forecast gold prices going forward to be higher than the average $554 in first quarter 2006," said RBC Capital Markets analyst, Stephen Walker, said in a note.

"This revenue lift more than offsets the $1.2bn in costs incurred to date," he said.

So they lock in a $1.2 Billion loss in the HOPE of prices staying above $554/oz instead of taking a smaller but guaranteed profit.

When the producers start to speculate, you just know you've entered bubble territory

jog on
d998
 
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