Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[rederob]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

So they lock in a $1.2 Billion loss in the HOPE of prices staying above $554/oz instead of taking a smaller but guaranteed profit.

When the producers start to speculate, you just know you've entered bubble territory

jog on
d998

You may have not been following Barrick's disastrous hedge situation over recent years.
Barrick tried to manipulate prices (lower) some years ago, and are now being caught out.
We're not far of your $720 topline figure now, so perhaps your analysis will need a bit of reworking: But I can wait till the fat lady sings.

 

[ducati916]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

rederob

You may have not been following Barrick's disastrous hedge situation over recent years.
Barrick tried to manipulate prices (lower) some years ago, and are now being caught out.
We're not far of your $720 topline figure now, so perhaps your analysis will need a bit of reworking: But I can wait till the fat lady sings.

No I haven't.
Interesting that they seem to have got it so wrong previously, yet now they presumably have got it so right.

Speculation by a business, within it's supposed area of expertise, is always a concern..........if they can't make a business profit with current prices, why would you expect them to make a speculative profit?

As regards my $720........it is indeed getting quite warm in the kitchen, however I still see nothing save rampant speculation. Speculation by definition is subject to rapid and irrational revisions.

jog on
d998

 

[rederob]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

As regards my $720........it is indeed getting quite warm in the kitchen, however I still see nothing save rampant speculation. Speculation by definition is subject to rapid and irrational revisions.

ducati
Surely your "revision" will not be irrational - surely!
POG just running over $681 so I seem to be too conservative with my gold views. I keep telling myself to be more bullish, but old age tempers it.
As for Barrick, they got in bed with the banks and tried to make money from financial manipulation rather than gold mining per se.
They have got what they deserved.
It's an interesting diversion to also note that CRS, which consoled investors with conservative hedging of 30% of reserves, got into trouble because it could not produce enough gold to meet its actual obligations.
Another gold stock worth looking at only via its chart is KCN: It's hedge position stops it from earning more than AU$600/oz while the spot price is another $250+ more.
But I digress from the thread's theme.
At the moment I would have to say gold was a good chance to break $900 by year's end - seeing irrational revisions are allowable.
The second half of the calendar year is typically stronger than the first, so I will reserve my judgement on $1000 for now, mostly because we have yet to have a decent retrace this year.

 

[Profitseeker]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

ducati

I sincerely appreciate your reply.
Thank you.

I respect our differing positions and agree that the commodity sector is neither for the faint hearted nor fundamentally illiterate.

All market trading carries risk: That is a given. My position is that if one has a reasonable understanding of the risk, and a very good understanding of the probabilities surrounding one's investments in that market, the risk is worth taking.

Since your last post in this thread, I have added $30k in gold equities to my portfolio, via OXR and LHG. My protfolio of CHESS holdings is below (note that I hold 50k CWT for yield):

You should look at adding some BDG!

 

[Profitseeker]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Did Gold really hit 682 last night. I feel like I am dreaming. It is going up very fast.

 

[nizar]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1147063463.php

Jim Sinclair interview

he's been very accurate at predicting price movements in the past

he thinks breaking 682 was significant, if we can hold above that, next target 887.50 and then 1650...

2007 and 2008 is when gold will really move, this year just the warm-up

 

[nizar]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Having a good run at the minute... 689....

 

[clowboy]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Nizar you beat me to the post by 8 minuets, good run ill say...hope the trend continues into the morning - if it does hold onto your seats tommorow (IMO).

Was thinking about starting a new thread with a poll to see who thinks it will break $700 overnight but decided against it due to lack of posters at this time of night.

 

[powerkoala]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

691.20
am i dreaming?

 

[RichKid]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

691.20
am i dreaming?

Nope, in fact its risen by almost $100 within a month, this type of momentum is hard to stop but when it ends, well......let's not jump the gun, just be prepared.

 

[nizar]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

RichKid have a look at historical charts for 1979-1980

On January 1st 1980, gold price was ~520, THREE WEEKS later it was 850, then ONE WEEK later its back to ~630

So i could imagine alot of money was made and lost in that 1 month...

MY point is... $100 in 1 month is NOTHING...

Heaps more to come from this gold bull run IMO...

And yeh.. gold is sitting on 696.20 !!

 

[RichKid]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

RichKid have a look at historical charts for 1979-1980

On January 1st 1980, gold price was ~520, THREE WEEKS later it was 850, then ONE WEEK later its back to ~630

So i could imagine alot of money was made and lost in that 1 month...

MY point is... $100 in 1 month is NOTHING...

Heaps more to come from this gold bull run IMO...

And yeh.. gold is sitting on 696.20 !!

True, but we haven't had a decent correcton for awhile, 700 is a big round number and this move is fairly extended. Eitherway I expect the gold co's with solid fundamentals to keep going, especially the new producers.

btw, I moved some of the posts from this thread on ASX gold stocks to the Gold Stocks thread in the ASX Stock Chat forum.

 

[rederob]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

691.20
am i dreaming?

$700 touched - a golden touch at that

 

[RichKid]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

An old article on Gold, from February 2006: http://www.smh.com.au/news/money/who-wants-to-be-a-bullionaire/2006/02/25/1140670298615.html

 

[MARKETWAVES]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

GOLD -

A serious look at history repeating itself ...............
--------------------------------------------------------

 

[MARKETWAVES]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Gold / Since - 1975 -

NEVER AGAIN IN OUR LIFETIME ( Already blasted out of a major base. )
- A REAL SIGN OF THE TIMES .......

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[RichKid]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Gold / Since - 1975 -

NEVER AGAIN IN OUR LIFETIME ( Already blasted out of a major base. )
- A REAL SIGN OF THE TIMES .......

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Beautiful work Markets, looking forward to more once we see the correction and the preparation for the final thrust up, if it happens, best not to predict but this is looking so bullish it's not funny. The correction will be nasty though imo and we will have a major correction imho.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Originally Posted by YOUNG_TRADER
I'm no expert but a simple look at the gold chart over the year tells me that it moved in a $20USD trade range up to August ($420-$440) then a $40USD trade range up to Novemeber ($440-$480) then a $60USD trade range up to January ($480-$540) which would suggest that so long as it holds above $540USD (ish) its nest trade range should be $80USD giving a target price of $620 USD,

I know this seems overally simplistic, but then I'm a simple person

So I'd say by April/May it should be reaching $620 USD and once it breaks out strongly above that its next target should be $720USD





Keeping to my very simple theory, Gold has now hit my upper range of $620, which means a new (now $100) range has begun being $620 - $720,

I expect gold to trade around $615-$620 for a day or 2 before moving up strongly to $720,

Its almost at the upper limit of this range (imo $720) which once broken above = a new $120 phase ie $720 - $840

It may just be coincidence but my simple theory has held up since I first stated it.

 

[rederob]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Its almost at the upper limit of this range (imo $720) which once broken above = a new $120 phase ie $720 - $840

It may just be coincidence but my simple theory has held up since I first stated it.

Simple works.
$840 looking very likely, much sooner than later, eh!
I like "round" numbers, mostly.
So with $700 gone, $800 is next, and we can probbaly skip to $1000 after that.
Iwill be very concerned if there is not a major retrace - a quick freefall of $50-$100 is need to shake out the speculators.
The uptrend will always resume in earnest while the greenback is falling apart.

 

[rederob]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

rederob
My range calculation was approximately $400+ to $720 odd.
I see nothing currently to change my view.
jog on
d998

ducati
Look at the latest gold chart.
If that does not work then nothing will.