Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[markrmau]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Hi Wayne,

I assume CBOT is Chicago Board of Trade.

How does this square with the commex GC06M (June 06) contract which only made a little over $594? What gives?

http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=738032

Edit: Oops, that was yesterdays I was looking at of course...

 

[wayneL]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Hi Wayne,

I assume CBOT is Chicago Board of Trade.

How does this square with the commex GC06M (June 06) contract which only made a little over $594? What gives?

http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=738032

Edit: Oops, that was yesterdays I was looking at of course...

Yes its the 100oz CBOT contract, same size as comex and fully electronic... ticker ZGM06

here's a more up to date source for GC (M06)

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GCM06&o=&a=V:15&z=800x550&d=LOW&b=bar&st=

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

I'm no expert but a simple look at the gold chart over the year tells me that it moved in a $20USD trade range up to August ($420-$440) then a $40USD trade range up to Novemeber ($440-$480) then a $60USD trade range up to January ($480-$540) which would suggest that so long as it holds above $540USD (ish) its nest trade range should be $80USD giving a target price of $620 USD,

I know this seems overally simplistic, but then I'm a simple person

So I'd say by April/May it should be reaching $620 USD and once it breaks out strongly above that its next target should be $720USD

I posted that on the 27th of Feb, its nice to be simple!

Also I think gold will see alot of jewellry type buying, ie actual consumption,

Indians (in particular) as well as Chinese and Middle Easterns are big big fans of gold, and its very interesting to note that China is the worlds fastest growing economy with India is set to tack over from 2007/2008 and well with oil @ $70 us a bbl the middle east is rolling in it,

So as the avg wealth of poeple in China and India grows I think we will see alot more consumption demand for gold!


Bring on the Bling!

 

[JustaReader]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Gold it seems would settle above the USD600 mark by the end of April, this is given. Question is where is it headed? Will the chinese diversify into gold for reserves?

 

[nizar]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Will the chinese diversify into gold for reserves?

YES

I read also Saudi and U.A.E will diversify their reserves into the Euro...

Remember CHina hold 75% of their total reserves in US dollars (thats about $500billion), when the start selling it, US dollar will PLUMMET, and GOLD by definition goes up, ie. requires more us dollars to buy an ounce....

ANd then if Japan, and Russia (together much more than $1trillion) follow suit, oh no... !

Warren Buffet predicted US dollar would fall and he was bullish on the pound, didnt quite work out last year, he lost more than $1billion, but most economists now agree he wasnt wrong, just early...

Interesting 2 see what happens..

UAE, Saudi considering to move reserves out of dollar

A number of Middle Eastern central banks said on Tuesday they would seek to switch reserves from the US greenback to euros.

Regional FX
Wednesday, March 22, 2006
Washington
http://www.middleeastforex.com/index.php?section=147

In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.

The United Arab Emirates said it was considering moving one-tenth of its dollar reserves to the euro, while the governor of the Saudi Arabian central bank condemned the decision by the United States to force Dubai Ports World to transfer its ownership to a ‘US entity,’ the UK Independent reported.

“Is it protectionism or discrimination? Is it okay for US companies to buy everywhere but it is not okay for other companies to buy the US?” said Hamad Saud Al Sayyari, the governor of the Saudi Arabian monetary authority.

The head of the United Arab Emirates central bank, Sultan Nasser Al Suweidi, said the bank was considering converting 10 per cent of its reserves from dollars to euros.

“They are contravening their own principles,” said Al Suweidi. “Investors are going to take this into consideration (and) will look at investment opportunities through new binoculars.”

The Commercial Bank of Syria has already switched the state’s foreign currency transactions from dollars to euros, Duraid Durgham head of the state-owned bank said. The decision by the bank of Syria follows the announcement by the White House calling on all US financial institutions to end correspondent accounts with Syria due to money-laundering concerns.

Syria’s Finance Minister Mohammad Al Hussein said: “Syria affirms that this decision and its timing are fundamentally political.”-Khaleej Times Online


The whole world knows the USD is on the nose, but China et al. know it's not an easy trap to extricate yourself from.


China should tap FX reserves to buy gold - banker
Reuters
Beijing, China
Monday, March 27, 2006
http://today.reuters.com/investing/F...type=bondsNews
&storyID=uri:2006-03-27T022935Z_01_PEK157569_RTRIDST_0_
ECONOMY-CHINA-RESERVES.XML

In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.

China should use part of its fast-growing foreign exchange reserves to buy gold as it seeks to adjust the asset mix to hedge against risk, a Bank of China official was quoted on Monday as saying.

Analysts say China has been gradually diversifying away from the dollar -- although fears of a collapse in the U.S. currency will prevent any dramatic shift. Chinese officials have denied reports they plan to sell current dollar assets in the reserves.

"China should appropriately reduce the proportion of dollars in its foreign exchange reserves while increasing the proportion of currencies such as the euro," the Financial News quoted Wang Yuanlong, a director at Bank of China's Australian operations, as saying.

"We can use part of the foreign exchange reserves to buy gold, which would help make the reserves more diversified and help guarantee and increase their value," said Wang, former economist at Bank of China, the country's largest foreign exchange bank.

China's foreign exchange reserves swelled 34 percent in 2005 to a record $818.9 billion, but the central bank has not disclosed the composition.

Last month, state media quoted Wang as saying China should ideally hold between $300 billion and $400 billion in foreign exchange reserves.

China has been a big buyer of U.S. government bonds, helping to finance a heavy U.S. current-account deficit and to keep American interest rates low. Investors watch closely for any sign that Beijing might shift the government's investment mix.

Central bank chief Zhou Xiaochuan said earlier this month that China would adjust the mix of its reserves in light of global market conditions. In doing so, China's criteria would be safety, liquidity and profitability, in that order.

China's currency reserves have soared in recent years as the central bank, in order to hold down the yuan, bought most of the dollars generated by a growing trade surplus, inflow of foreign direct investment and speculative capital.

The fast-growing foreign exchange holdings signal persistent upward pressure on the yuan, despite China's landmark 2.1 percent revaluation of the currency in July, analysts say

 

[brerwallabi]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

I always shudder when I hear Bill Mclaren's name he reminds of the dementors in the Harry Potter books. I start to shake when I read his reports here is why.



"We have seen how the market previously exhausted into the last high with three ascending trendlines on the daily chart and moved into a consolidation. If we view this same pattern of trend on the weekly chart rather than the daily basis you can see the market is now started the third ascending trendline on a longer-term basis due to the perspective of the weekly chart. We can assume since this is the third ascending trendline on the weekly chart this move up is the final leg up and a failure of this leg could end the bull campaign.


Also understanding that all highs and lows are exact proportions of previous moves and those portions are eighths and thirds. You can see the last correction was only a ¼ retracement of the entire move up. This is a small retracement and keeps the trend in a strong position and should allow for at least a ¼ extension of that range up to 628 June contract. Best time for top is May 5th or June 8th and the June date would obviously show higher prices. We don’t want to see gold now drop back below the point it just broke out from or the up trend will become at risk.

So when this leg up ends, it should end the entire bull campaign."

 

[rederob]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

brewallabi
If I am right, then gold is now entering a phase (since late last year) where its pace of advance will be sharply higher than the preceding 4 years.
Charts are quite useless on gold, and analysts that are not gold specialists keep reading technical indicators that, frankly, have little relevance to the gold market - apart from a general consensus that overbought lightens the increases or gives a slight retrace, and oversold generates the opposite.
Many market commentators continue to say that US interest rate increases will be bad for POG: Yet the greatest gains have occurred when interest rates have risen every month for several years.
The factors that give rise to gold going higher are strengthening, not weakening.
McLaren will be proven to be as wrong as many before him who have not understood the intracacies of the gold market.
As a very quick aside, if you consider there to be a strong link between POO and POG, then POG at $700 by August is on the cards.

 

[brerwallabi]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

brewallabi
If I am right, then gold is now entering a phase (since late last year) where its pace of advance will be sharply higher than the preceding 4 years.
Charts are quite useless on gold, and analysts that are not gold specialists keep reading technical indicators that, frankly, have little relevance to the gold market - apart from a general consensus that overbought lightens the increases or gives a slight retrace, and oversold generates the opposite.
Many market commentators continue to say that US interest rate increases will be bad for POG: Yet the greatest gains have occurred when interest rates have risen every month for several years.
The factors that give rise to gold going higher are strengthening, not weakening.
McLaren will be proven to be as wrong as many before him who have not understood the intracacies of the gold market.
As a very quick aside, if you consider there to be a strong link between POO and POG, then POG at $700 by August is on the cards.

And if you consider the value of gold compared to its previous highs of when I was a child then $2k+ is on the cards. I don't necessarily agree with Bill Mclaren (he is not someone who gets it wrong usually) but I shivered when I read his daily report. I do agree that sometimes charts are meaninless on some certain commodities and stocks. My belief of this is, there is a whole heap of fact that will continue to drive the POG beyond its current highs these have been mentioned previously on this site and many others. I am not holding anything but gold and selected resource stocks currently and can't be bothered trading too much at the momment as I feel the gains to be made in holding gold and zinc stocks this year far outweigh the effort in trading. I hope that Mclaren is totally wrong but he is no fool and I do feel he is correct in prredicting a correction in the All Ords next week hence I have exited all but a few selected stocks. I will no doubt pick up some resources again far cheaper then now.

 

[JustaReader]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Lot of static about consolidation in the sector. Any of you hearing anything?

Anyone here agrees LHG is a good take-over target (reported on AFR)?

I got out of LHG but me thinks this is gonna be an interesting punt! Game anyone?

 

[chicken]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Lot of static about consolidation in the sector. Any of you hearing anything?

Anyone here agrees LHG is a good take-over target (reported on AFR)?

I got out of LHG but me thinks this is gonna be an interesting punt! Game anyone?

You know I have said this before.....any PNG company where the PNG Goverment holds SHARES will never be a takeover target...the PNG Goverment does NOT SELL THEIR SHARES as they would lose control...so ANY suggestion of takeover is NOT POSSIBLE...the Goverment of PNG DOES NOT SELL THEIR NATURAL ASSETS as the landownership is different to Australia.....so LHG will NEVER be taken over as it is a PNG company....

 

[rederob]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Chicken
I tend to agree, but free markets do strange things.
Of the gold producers that will do well, I can't think of anything better than LHG and OXR.
Although OXR is unhedged, LHG will knock out 3 times the quantity of OXR of which over 460koz is delivered to spot: That is 460,000ozs multiplied by AU$400 to represent the profit margin as gross cash costs are about AU$400 and the present gold price a shade over AU$800. Unfortunately LHG negotiated terrible hedge prices on its forward sales so the remaining 207koz (based on LHG's expected 670koz this year) have been sold at about AU$470, which is better than a loss, but not by much!
Fortunately LHG's hedge position improves slightly in the next 2 years, before peaking at 240kozs in each of 2009 and 2010 - so lets's hope that it's restructured beforehand.

 

[crackaton]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Anyone know much about these guys? www.m4.cwa.net.au

 

[sam76]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Anyone noticed spot gold and silver?
604.40 (up $8.10) and 13.23 (+.34) respectively!

 

[rederob]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Nice call Sam
Moving higher still.
A very interesting ploy from the Asian markets.
What will Europe and the US do when they see the jump has been made.
Some short positions ready for the crunch?

 

[RichKid]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Anyone know much about these guys? www.m4.cwa.net.au

Hi Crackaton,
I did have a look at them a few months ago when they were placing lots of ads in the media, there is another thread on Commodity Warrants here on ASF, my experience with warrants is that they are generally too expensive, maybe you can post more there to get some feedback from clients. IMO I'd get more leverage and cheaper entries with stocks (via options or ASX listed warrants) or CFD's (if CFD's appeal to you). Coffee and soft commodities may be hard to gain exposure to unless you try futures.

 

[MalteseBull]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

$650 here gold comes

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

I'm no expert but a simple look at the gold chart over the year tells me that it moved in a $20USD trade range up to August ($420-$440) then a $40USD trade range up to Novemeber ($440-$480) then a $60USD trade range up to January ($480-$540) which would suggest that so long as it holds above $540USD (ish) its nest trade range should be $80USD giving a target price of $620 USD,

I know this seems overally simplistic, but then I'm a simple person

So I'd say by April/May it should be reaching $620 USD and once it breaks out strongly above that its next target should be $720USD

Keeping to my very simple theory, Gold has now hit my upper range of $620, which means a new (now $100) range has begun being $620 - $720,

I expect gold to trade around $615-$620 for a day or 2 before moving up strongly to $720,

 

[nizar]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

last sale was at 640.80

and silver 14.67

 

[brerwallabi]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

I expect gold to trade around $615-$620 for a day or 2 before moving up strongly to $720,

Looks like you got the $615-$620 wrong, but the $720, looks like you might have that one right.
Gold currently $640.

 

[rederob]

Re: GOLD Where is it heading?

Yo!
Down nearly $30 since last Friday, from a lower high. I smell a sub $500 correction.

Yo!
Wayne
Lets try for a $600 correction
Nah
Make it $700 - don't like downside surprises!