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Evening Wavepicker,
Looks like it is getting on with it as you suggested may happen.
I don't have data but if you look at the yearly chart (I went to Kitco.com) it looks like a head and shoulders pattern has formed, and difficult to see on their chart but looks like it has been activated which roughly takes us to 700.
As you know the more confluence we have the higher the probability outcome.
We'll see who is correct the fundies or the T/A followers.
BULL MARKET HAS MORE YEARS TO RUN
Some worry that the March peak was THE peak for gold. This is very unlikely considering the world situation and the economic imbalances today. Plus, demand for gold is growing strongly. It truly is an international, expanding market and it’s easy for people to buy. Last month, for instance, Chinese banks began trading gold futures.
The gold market is currently more powerful compared to the 1970s. There is much more money behind the move. Whether it be China, India, the Middle East, Russia or elsewhere, the world has mega wealth and it’s acquiring gold.
What to watch for
Gold’s 65-week moving average works very well in identifying the major trend (see Chart 3A). The gold price has been consistently above this level since August, 2001. This average provides solid support at $770. For now, gold is vulnerable below $950 (basis June) and it’ll be weak in a D decline once it stays clearly below $888.
by Mary Anne & Pamela Aden
Part of the Aden Sisters report published a few days ago:-
What has correctness between methods got to do with this thread. Do you enjoy trying to pick one side up against the other.
With t/a and f/a there are infinate variables of time, motion and volume, that I would defy anyone to be able to distinguish who is right or wrong or who wins.
Surely we are adult investors working at a very serious business.
I thought I had made it clear what direction I think Gold is heading have I not ?Most of the posters here put forward their best views or take on where the gold price is heading..
Part of the Aden Sisters report published a few days ago:-
Sorry, couldn't resist explode, I thought that last line would bring you out.
Yes, we are in a serious business but forums are a place to let off some steam at times and have a bit of a laugh.I personally do not hold any Gold stocksn neither am I short so it really doesn't matter to me if Gold flies or, as I suspect collapses, however if their is a clear indication in the next few weeks where it is going I will trade in that direction.
This I think is the main difference between T/A & F/A.
We will know when we are wrong, I suspect you will hang on for dear life unable to accept you were wrong.
I thought I had made it clear what direction I think Gold is heading have I not ?
What does everyone think of gold stocks in the situation ? Do you think we have hit an area of support on the POG?
Jim,
Everything is going to hell in a hand-basket. Is there any explanation about the major miners' decline and gold?
CIGA Joe.
Dear CIGA Joe,
The following is what has pressured gold and caused short covering in the dollar/euro:
Media has convinced the public that the Fed will go hawkish, first by decelerating the drop in interest rates. The deceleration has been attributed to the Fed having done the right thing.
Media has convinced the public that the ECB will reduce interest rates now faster than the Fed, thereby boosting the dollar versus the euro.
Although the business statistics are negative, the media has held out the carrot that it takes six months for the Fed's action to materialize in the economy so all will be well in six to nine months.
The idea that the credit crisis is over is the message that firming financials are communicating as media supports that position.
Media has declared gold as DEAD.
90% of the above is raving BS. There is no way the Fed can go hawkish without causing, via the equity market, the revelation that nothing has changed for the better. There is no mention of the impact lower Federal Tax revenues will have on the US Federal Budget deficit and its negative weight on the dollar. There is no mention of the desire of many central banks to diversify out of the dollar when a short covering rally presents itself.
I feel whatever gold has to do on the downside will be covered by the end of the first week of May. I have written recently on junior gold shares which you can review by clicking here.
Regards,
Jim
Interesting on ABC news as I woke up they said that gold had gone down on fears of a US recession.
Good question. My expected bottom is either $900-905 (in that case already in. Next strong support is $880-890, with very strong support from $850-875.
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