Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[wavepicker]

Wavepicker, thats a very tradable $300 move you've marked out for gold. Let us know if you put on shorts to catch it, where and when. If you're right, thats a lot of money to be made.

No offence, but Prechter was the biggest EW guru with gold, and he's been calling for $250 gold ever since it broke over $400, so EWers haven't had a good record with gold this bull.

Also, I'm no EWer but if I was, I'd tend to start the count at the second double bottom, at end of 00, not first one in mid 99. The gold shares show it much clearer, that the second double bottom was the beginning of the gold bull.

Hello RS. In the last 30 years Prechter has had a good record with Gold, but I admit that Elliotticians do make mistakes with trades, they also make some stunning trades(just like most other traders).
The perfect trading system does not exist as much as we wish it did. When dealing with the future all we can do is to learn to trade with a probabilistic mindset.
I actually bought Gold in April 2001 on a recommendaton from Prechters Elliott Wave Theorist saying back then that pessimism toward Gold back then had reached extreme levels.

Re the EW count, why would you start your count at the low of 2001 anyway??. To me that is a classic second wave. You would have found that pessimism toward Gold was at it's worst at the terminus of the wave 2 in 2001, more so even than 1999 even though it was at higher levels in 2001.

However the best way to determine this would be to break down the wave structure in in the 1999 advance and see if it was a 3 or a 5.

Cheers

 

[wavepicker]

On a different note if Gold does correct here, as the US$ rises, you would think this would be bullish for equities, which brings us to your point above, and try and place a wave count without the bias of fundamentals.Sometimes difficult to do !!

Have no idea Pete. But I look at the equities charts completely seperately in comparison to precious metals and don't really look for any relationships unless they look obvious. I have never found any although EWI do say there is a relationship with Silver and the SP500!!

I am bullish equities for the short term.


https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=283151&postcount=129

 

[refined silver]

Hello RS. In the last 30 years Prechter has had a good record with Gold, but I admit that Elliotticians do make mistakes with trades, they also make some stunning trades(just like most other traders).
I actually bought Gold in April 2001 on a recommendaton from Prechters Elliott Wave Theorist saying back then that pessimism toward Gold back then had reached extreme levels.

To miss the last 70-80% of the gold bull I wouldn't call a good record. Yes he maybe got the oversold bottom in 01, but he was only calling for a corrective bounce he didn't recognise that the trend of the last 20 years had changed, when it had bounced, he continued calling for $250 for years, refusing to admit he was wrong. He still thinks gold is in a bear mkt and has just been changing his labeling to validate his bearish beliefs. Its got the point of being ridiculous, and of course causing his followers to miss out on most of the gains, or worse still lose if they kept going short.

Re the EW count, why would you start your count at the low of 2001 anyway??. To me that is a classic second wave. You would have found that pessimism toward Gold was at it's worst at the terminus of the wave 2 in 2001, more so even than 1999 even though it was at higher levels in 2001.
Cheers

As I said I'm no EWer, but I agree the pessimism towards gold was much worse in 2001, and the the gold shares were much lower also, which to me marks the start of the bull. Otherwise you end up with totally different counts on gold vs the gold share indices which tend to move in tandem, (just amplification varies).

I also agree EW can be amazingly accurate...The problem is most EWs all interpret different wave counts in real time, and secondly and more importantly, you must have the fundamentals right, and the fundamental direction right, then TA, EW etc help on timing. If technicals are your CORE belief, rather tahn fundamentals, 90% are doomed to failure.

My other question which wasn't answered, and goes for all posting, is your money where your views are? If so, say when and where you are short, and til when. I am fully long, and so if gold goes to the $600s, $700s or even low $800s, my portfolio is likely to be a bit bloodied. Its easy to sit at a computer and philosophise, but a bit meaningless if you are stating a clear opinion and there is no substance or money behind the views.

Cheers

 

[Porper]

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I also agree EW can be amazingly accurate...The problem is most EWs all interpret different wave counts in real time

This is where most Elliot Wave disbelievers point their argument and it is actually just plain not true.Once you study and learn a little more than the basics you will find that most counts are very similar, also you tend to find that there will be a primary count (most likely), then a secondary etc, etc.

.

and secondly and more importantly, you must have the fundamentals right, and the fundamental direction right, then TA, EW etc help on timing. If technicals are your CORE belief, rather tahn fundamentals, 90% are doomed to failure.

Well, supposedly 90% of us are doomed to failure anyway, whether we trade on T/A or fundamentals.I don't disagree with the funamentals argument fully as I do use this with my super in conjunction with T/A.

To trade I do wholly disagree, I know for a fact that not having any idea even what the company you buy into even does has no adverse effect on profits.T/A on its own can be profitable consistently.

.

My other question which wasn't answered, and goes for all posting, is your money where your views are? If so, say when and where you are short, and til when. I am fully long, and so if gold goes to the $600s, $700s or even low $800s, my portfolio is likely to be a bit bloodied. Its easy to sit at a computer and philosophise, but a bit meaningless if you are stating a clear opinion and there is no substance or money behind the views.

Cheers

This thread is about peoples views on where Gold is heading, not a live trade arena.For some people this view is done using Elliot Wave, others, fundamentals or even other patterns.

Wavepicker is obviously very educated on Elliot Wave probably more so than anybody on this forum, he doesn't need to post live trades with his analysis to prove a point.

 

[ithatheekret]

There's rumours that some European countries will eventually withdraw from using the Euro and returning to their old currencies .

If this was to happen what would be the outcome for the gold price ?

Imagine the return of the DM and/ or the French Franc .

With the Euro at soaring heights the possiblities are definitely there , but will the posturing as such , eventuate into a nationalistic rush towards dead and forgotten currencies ?

 

[refined silver]

=Porper;285021]This is where most Elliot Wave disbelievers point their argument and it is actually just plain not true.Once you study and learn a little more than the basics you will find that most counts are very similar, also you tend to find that there will be a primary count (most likely), then a secondary etc, etc.

Why then has Prechter continually changed his counts umpteen times for the last few years. And he's supposedly the guru ??

This thread is about peoples views on where Gold is heading, not a live trade arena.For some people this view is done using Elliot Wave, others, fundamentals or even other patterns.

If you think having no skin the the game makes no difference, I beg to differ. Read any trading thread about paper trading vs real trading, course it makes a difference.

Of course people can post views without putting any money behind it, but it does demonstrate the conviction or true interest if its being traded.

We'll agree to disagree on the TA alone making money. I believe you can do it for a few years, but then will give it all back.

 

[Trembling Hand]

We'll agree to disagree on the TA alone making money. I believe you can do it for a few years, but then will give it all back.

This is wrong. :swear: How can you make such a statement. I assume you believe such results are just random??

 

[Porper]

Why then has Prechter continually changed his counts umpteen times for the last few years. And he's supposedly the guru ??.

I didn't know he had as I don't follow his service.Apparantly he has been calling a bear market for years, again only hear say.Doesn't mean that most of his calls are wrong.He has certainly proved himself in other ways, winning the trading champs for one.

Read any trading thread about paper trading vs real trading, course it makes a difference.

Not quite sure why you bring this up, this has nothing to do with the discussion

We'll agree to disagree on the TA alone making money. I believe you can do it for a few years, but then will give it all back.

Well, I would disagree with this, I personally know people who trade purely using T/A and they are highly successful and have been for umpteen years.

Of course we could say the same about fundamentalists being unable to be long term profitable, just look how many brokers continually have strong buy recs on companies plunging in share price.However I won't say that as I simply don't know.

 

[explod]

I didn't know he had as I don't follow his service.Apparantly he has been calling a bear market for years, again only hear say.Doesn't mean that most of his calls are wrong.He has certainly proved himself in other ways, winning the trading champs for one.





Not quite sure why you bring this up, this has nothing to do with the discussion



Well, I would disagree with this, I personally know people who trade purely using T/A and they are highly successful and have been for umpteen years.

Of course we could say the same about fundamentalists being unable to be long term profitable, just look how many brokers continually have strong buy recs on companies plunging in share price.However I won't say that as I simply don't know.

What has fundamentalism got to do with Brokers recommendations. Do you know what fundamental analysis is.

Brokers are the worst person's to listen to from my experience.

Warren Buffet the most successful long term trader and investor does not use T/A. However many very good traders do. Why are we hair splitting.

In my view a combination of both is the best way. But that is only my view and I do not ask anyone else to swallow what I say.

 

[Trembling Hand]

and I do not ask anyone else to swallow what I say.

But many a Fundamentalist seem to think they have Knowledge to tell others what they can't themselves achieve will be the same for everyone else.

 

[explod]

But many a Fundamentalist seem to think they have Knowledge to tell others what they can't themselves achieve will be the same for everyone else.

That is a bit presumptious and do I detect a little bias creeping in against fundamentalism ?.

To my mind a fundamental approach is putting the ruler over the object/business/investment and going with its actual output and to some degree potential .

The thread is about the gold price and,

from a fundamentalist persepective money is more and more backed by debt and gold is one (among others) of the objects taking its place to preserve ones wealth;

from a technical perspective gold is in a long term up trend and there is no sign at this stage that that trend has broken

 

[Trembling Hand]

We'll agree to disagree on the TA alone making money. I believe you can do it for a few years, but then will give it all back.

I don't care what method anyone uses. If they can make it work fine. But if someone makes a statement like the above it has to be challenged as it is clearly wrong.

 

[Porper]

What has fundamentalism got to do with Brokers recommendations. Do you know what fundamental analysis is.

Yes thanks, obviously the T/A V Fundamental question gets you fired up for you to explod like this

Brokers are the worst person's to listen to from my experience.

Well, at least we agree on one point.Now do most brokers use T/A or fundamentals ?

Warren Buffet the most successful long term trader and investor does not use T/A.

Why is he the most successful, how do you quantify that statement.

This is way off topic now anyway, this has bugga all to do with where Gold is going and why it is where it is.

 

[wavepicker]

Hello RS, Firstly I would laike to say that Porper pretty much summed up my thoughts to your posts. However a few of your comments I would like to respond to:

To miss the last 70-80% of the gold bull I wouldn't call a good record. Yes he maybe got the oversold bottom in 01, but he was only calling for a corrective bounce he didn't recognise that the trend of the last 20 years had changed, when it had bounced, he continued calling for $250 for years, refusing to admit he was wrong. He still thinks gold is in a bear mkt and has just been changing his labeling to validate his bearish beliefs. Its got the point of being ridiculous, and of course causing his followers to miss out on most of the gains, or worse still lose if they kept going short.

I am not sure whether your concerns are with Prechters abilities or EW analysis as such.
Gurus come and go in this business, an analyst can make 10 good calls in a row and be hailed a guru, but then can make to 2 bad ones and go out of favour very very quickly. What got me interested in Prechter was not his forecasting skills in Gold but rather his track record as trader. In 1984 he traded a live index options account in the US trading championship a contest lasting 4 months. Not only did he win the championship, he broke the record at the time with a 444% profit in that time frame. His trades were mainly based on EW and Prechter was the first to admit most of his trades were losers not winners. Do they need to be all winners to be succesfull? Absolutely not!! What EW enabled him to do was narrow down high probability trades. Not all of them worked, but the ones that did were quite stunning.

I have followed the mans work for a number of years now and with regard to Gold, he got it right on many more occasions than wrong. That included the peak in 1980 and all the subsequent moves in the ensuing bear market, when most other pundits were catching falling knives. Sure, of late he has been off the mark. I won't disgaree with you there, but most of the Gold perma bulls were calling for a low as early as the late 80's.



With regard to changing EW labels, that is simply part of the nature of trading as the dynamic of price change. Radge calls it Adaptive Analysis. All you can do is make the most informed decision that you can with the data that is available to you at the time. The core of my own approach is Cycle Analsysis, EW only makes up 1/3 of what I do and they both compliment each other.

I also agree EW can be amazingly accurate...The problem is most EWs all interpret different wave counts in real time, and secondly and more importantly, you must have the fundamentals right, and the fundamental direction right, then TA, EW etc help on timing. If technicals are your CORE belief, rather tahn fundamentals, 90% are doomed to failure.

Yes RS, EWavers interpret different patterns in real time. So do practioners of most other forms of T/A. But you know what? There is just as much subjectivess amongst fundementalists(probabaly much more)
Personally I think both fundementals and T/A have inherent flaws, but also which you decide to adopt really depends on the type of trading one is conducting. For me, T/A suits my style much more because I generally take short to medium term positions and I have found that my trading is inconsistant with the fundemental approach in these timeframes. At the same time I acknowledge that others have been able to use F/A succesfully over the short/medium terms timeframes.


Sorry but completely and utterly disgaree with you with regard to having fundementals right first. Yes there is a place for fundementals, but it ain't the fundementals or T/A IMO that drives the market, it's sentiment and social mood.
Explain this if you will, why has our equities market crashed over the last 6 months when all we hear is how robust the Aussie economy is and the fundementals are underpinning it's growth??
This is where our thinking differs, IMO fundementals lag the market not lead it.
Did you buy Gold in 2001, probably not because 90% of fundementalists back then thought Gold was a ancient relic with little commercial value. Precisely the time to be buying. Now the polar opposite is true.
Sorry that you think that 90% of technical traders are doomed to failure compared to using funnymentals, but this is just plain wrong. If anthyting just as many using F/A are doomed to failure as those using T/A. If you may have tried and failed does not mean that all others are in the same category as you.

It's not the approach that is the key, but rather the mindset. A probabilstic mindset together with the right Money Management is paramount, whichever style of analysis you chose to conduct.

My other question which wasn't answered, and goes for all posting, is your money where your views are? If so, say when and where you are short, and til when. I am fully long, and so if gold goes to the $600s, $700s or even low $800s, my portfolio is likely to be a bit bloodied. Its easy to sit at a computer and philosophise, but a bit meaningless if you are stating a clear opinion and there is no substance or money behind the views.

The answer to your question: SOMETIMES. I personally do not make public all my trades except to a few close trading friends (some from this forum).
But if you would like to see some of my own trades go to the "Your Latest T/A based trade" and "The Elliott Wave Analysis Thread" to name a few. Even on this thread if you care to go back 2 years ago and look at my posts, but I have lsited many trades all over this forum if you can be bothered reading all the posts. At present I have no positions in Gold but will make public my movements since you have interest. However by the same token we wish to know when you will be long and short as well.

Cheers

 

[Whiskers]

Yes there is a place for fundementals, but it ain't the fundementals or T/A IMO that drives the market, it's sentiment and social mood.

Ditto, Ditto, Ditto, Ditto,

Ditto, Ditto, Ditto, Ditto...

Indeed. A point I suscribe to and often mention, but often people interpret ones observation of the market as a personal 'sentiment'.

 

[explod]

Yes thanks, obviously the T/A V Fundamental question gets you fired up for you to explod like this


Well, at least we agree on one point.Now do most brokers use T/A or fundamentals ?



Why is he the most successful, how do you quantify that statement.

This is way off topic now anyway, this has bugga all to do with where Gold is going and why it is where it is.

So it has been ok for you to go off topic but when challenged a little you fast remind others. In fact I hit the off topic button first in this instance.

Not fired up at all, I have no bones at all with any type of analysis and I have not avered to that.

Buffet measures properly and invests only in what he understands. That alone saved him from the dot.com because he did not understand it. He is worth a read pal.

And a good ole explodion is what is going to happen to gold sometime soon.

And we may learn to smile at ourselves a bit more then.

 

[explod]

Ditto, Ditto, Ditto, Ditto,

Ditto, Ditto, Ditto, Ditto...

Indeed. A point I suscribe to and often mention, but often people interpret ones observation of the market as a personal 'sentiment'.

No argument there at all. However the overall general weakening of the market has been driven by changing circumstances (fundamentals) over the last 18 months, which in turn has changed sentiment. Of course short term market movements will be effected by news spin, broker reports, and fed or government intervention and it is this area that gold is particularly hit. In spite of that gold is up be a great deal over the last 12 months at a time when many other areas are down. That is a matter of supply and demand which IMHO comes back to fundamentals ahead of any other aspect.

However my great concern is to detect changes and it will be my own view (tech) of charts that will tell me first when it is time to perhaps exit my current long positions.

Where is the problem?

 

[refined silver]

Whoa! Good to see the boys fired up!

Ok. Where do I start?

Trembling Hand: I don't care what method anyone uses. If they can make it work fine. But if someone makes a statement like the above it has to be challenged as it is clearly wrong.

If you read the whole quote I said 90%. It doesn't come from me originally, (but I agree with it) it's from a guy who's made a living trading for 60yrs. He not just owned brokerages, but had chairs on major exchanges, written books, and called many mkt moves of the last 40 yrs correctly. His father used to trade with Jesse Livermore and was in a similar league. After his 60 yrs trading, that is his observation. That TA without correct FA will at best break even in the long run. Of course he's not stupid enough to say no-one can make a living trading using TA. He has lived amongst traders most of his life.

I assume you believe such results are just random??

Absolutely not. The random walk theory is one of the biggest lies in Economics. I always use TA. (although part of the reason it works is cos its a self-fullfilling prophecy as nearly everyone uses it)

Wavepicker: "Sorry but completely and utterly disgaree with you with regard to having fundementals right first. Yes there is a place for fundementals, but it ain't the fundementals or T/A IMO that drives the market, it's sentiment and social mood" .

Yes mkt psychology does drive markets, so that it overshoots the mean on both sides, and the fundamentals get more out of whack, til a correction occurs.

Explain this if you will, why has our equities market crashed over the last 6 months when all we hear is how robust the Aussie economy is and the fundementals are underpinning it's growth??

Media articles are not FA. Most financial media is spin and sometimes purposeful distortion of facts.

I personally do not make public all my trades except to a few close trading friends (some from this forum).

I would never expect you to make all your trades public and I'm not questioning your methods, or truthfulness in any way. I was just making the point that it was a big call to suggest $600-700 as a target, and I wanted to know if you had put any money behind that view

At present I have no positions in Gold but will make public my movements since you have interest. However by the same token we wish to know when you will be long and short as well.

Appreciated.

For the record I am long til further notice, (Not forever, though)
and have been since beginning of 2002.

Apologies to any if there was too much deviation from the thread theme.

 

[RichKid]

Ladies & Gentlemen, congratulations on conducting a dignified and robust debate!

I trust that we (this means all ASF members) will continue to resolve our differences in the same spirit.

We have all gotten a lot more out of this recent series of discussions than we would have had we resorted to invective & assumptions about remarks being motivated by personal antipathy.

If you feel angered by a post, please do this- just take a deep breath (curse or scream if you really can't hold it in), log off, walk away, think about it, then log back in and reply to the material issues. Ignore the unwanted personal remarks directed at you by the offender as these will stand out like an ugly blemish on that poster's reputation, you will do best to ignore them.

Hone in on the material issues and mop away the detritus surrounding it, that way the true debate will survive and the rubbish will be discarded. This recent series of exchanged has had little of the 'rubbish' that I have just described but it has been present in other exchanges. It's often our unchecked human emotion that hinders our judgment and leads us astray, most of us would not respond this way face to face- hence the breather I mention above to take stock of yourself before replying.

So, well done to all! These are interesting times to live in, we might as well discuss as much of it as we can without being sidetracked by unwanted squabbles.

 

[Trembling Hand]

It doesn't come from me originally, (but I agree with it) ....... That TA without correct FA will at best break even in the long run. Of course he's not stupid enough to say no-one can make a living trading using TA.

Flip Flop