Gold Digger

[Triple B]

So as I stated in the 45 entries thread , the time has come to test out my gold trading..
Why Gold.?
I have recently made 170 odd fx and gold forward tests. intra day mostly with a few overnight holds.
The stats came back as gold being my most profitable and consitent pair.

27 Trades
8xBE
9 x win 47%
10xloss 53%
Excluding BE trades
Pay off ratio aprox 3.5:1
Expectancy 8

So I think these numbers are worth an expanded sample of 100.
I will be taking no more than 5 trades per night. 3 intra day and 2 attempted entries for overnight holds.

The trading is discretionary with trades mainly Break-out and break downs
Reversal trading inside trading range.
Price action , only indicators are 200ma for several timeframes represented on 15minchart
Tick volume
5 min will also be used mainly for reversals in trading range
Will also show longer timeframe charts to see overall picture

2 Types of stop losses ,wide and tight
Targets are min 2:1 and no trade is closed at less than 2:1 . BE is the exception
Starting with $500
R is 2% and reduced or increased at $50 account intervals. ie at $450 r is $9
Expected drawdown at 50% win rate is 20% with a run of 10 losses in a row a 2% chance.
we'll see about that!
Trades will be described as Break Out below Resistance= BOBR = a potential break out buy under R
BO above R = BOAR break out buy above R
Break down above support BDAS A potential breakdown sold above support
Break down below Support BDBS A breakdown sold below support
Reversal at Resistance RAR
Reversal at Support RAS

Support and resistance are either horizontal lines or parallel trend-lines
entries will mostly be by stop or limit orders however market orders will also be used

Will show charts as I put orders on or soon as market orders are in.
Also filling out trading log , expect these 100 trades to take 5-6 weeks
Will show log at the end of each week.
Stop in and comment . Makes things a little less Boring!
See you tomorrow afternoon about 4:45PM

 

[willoneau]

Looking forward to following your gold digging triple.
a winning % of 47 and RR of 3.5 is impressive IMO.

 

[ducati916]

I'll probably join you in trading some gold. I won't be daytrading it, I'm looking for the swing and trend.

I'll be going long when I open the position US time, [GLD ETF].

jog on
duc

 

[Triple B]

Welcome fellow gold digger .
Look forward to seeing how the longer term players trade. Might help me confirm where the orders are!?

 

[Triple B]

While I wait for London to open (5pm Sydney) I will post some charts and short comments .
The way I mark my charts might look a bit messy but some quick explanations will help .
Prep.
First thing is to look at forex factory calendar . I have it set up for my timezone and i check for any Red news events for USD. No USD news for tonight or tomorrow before NY close.
Main news is NFP on first friday of the month. I dont trade through these.

Next i have a quick look at the DXY USD index. currently at 96.5 and hitting a trading range resistance in 15min chart after sell off on friday night sat morning .Trading view chart. might even break out shortly. This helps to id "possilble" direction XAU
Might be short tonight on XAU but will decide using the charts.

Next i have a quick look at SP 500 DJIA 30 and FTSE 100 ASX 200 To see if there has been any panic selling .
Gold thrives on fear in the stock market , and seeing a big correction in the Stock markets can provide the catalyst needed for Gold to break out of a consolidation. Check out the gold charts against the correction a few weeks ago. This process takes less than 5 min .
All lookin pretty civilised now on the 4hr charts making higher lows
Longer term xau charts are already marked and then I have a look at them to remind me of where the market is.
Will keep charts small so not to chew up too much of Joe blows server Limit.
Red Ma is weekly 200ma Orange is Daily 200ma and purple is monthly 200ma
We can see POG(price of Gold) is bouncing between the support and resistance of 1180-1360
Recently making a double bottom and now a higher low.

now we zoom into the daily and see an uptrend channel .POG has just jumped back into most recent trading range and may be returning to support. Possible bounce off support reversal trade tonight? Red ma is daily 200ma Blue is weekly 200ma orange is 4h 200ma

4 Hr. Red ma is 4hr 200ma purple is 1hr 200ma yellow 15min 200ma and blue up top is daily 200ma
you can see the price action now and the clear jump back into the trading range defined by the blue horizontal lines. i mainly use the 4hr for looking at the bigger picture as you can zoom the chart out and look back a year quickly . also focus on 4hr at price action and S&R to ID possible trade scenarios on the 15min chart.

Will post 15min chart next post

 

[Triple B]

Now a broad view of the 15min possible reversal trade if price turns back up over hz R green line with the help of up trend line or short down to 200ma bunch if green line broken . better RR long 3 or 4: 1
and only about 1:1 short or real tight stop for 2:1. so long trade is preferred

 

[Triple B]

now watching 5min for price action and possible double bottom. price must break out above recent high on 5min and back above trend line for long with stop under green line Risk is $1.50 long .USD so $2.10 AUD per micro lot (0.01 lot) R is $10AUD so 0.05lots aprox.
just went short and lost $5 =1%
Buy stop now on at 0.05 1219.60 sl at 1218.10 for R of $10.26
Slow monday london open .Going to get a coffee while the support gets sorted out

 

[Triple B]

looking at market order for better rr

 

[Triple B]

bought 0.06at 1219.40 stop at 1218.09 for R $10.75 might be tight but moving up nicely
target 1223.15 for 3:1
stop will be moved to be if hz support of trading range is jumped

 

[Triple B]

Im off to clean the stinkin leaves out of the pool. MT4 phone app will let me know if trade gets stopped out.

 

[Triple B]

Turns out the mrs already did it !
Andy Mac must be fully focused tonight .
Need full focus for shorter term stuff . Can be draining . especially if he filling his log out like a good trader

 

[Triple B]

Putting a buy stop at 1220.50 and sl 1218.60 for 0.04 overnight trade to bo trading range! Target $1229.50 for 5XR
if filled first order goes to BE

 

[willoneau]

Looking at XAUUSD

 

[Triple B]

DXY has broken support and down strong

 

[Triple B]

Who invited the sellers! boooooo
2nd trade closed @BE

 

[Triple B]

1 Intra day left and overnight still on.

 

[Triple B]

closed overnight for -$5 1%
got 2 more entries left .
looking at entering long again on green line support,preffered or blue support with tightish stops

 

[Triple B]

Buy limit 0.05 @ 1218.78 sl 1217.40 TP 1223.17 for 3:1
Looking at entry on double bottom intra day
still looks like support is present and would like to see a higher low

 

[Triple B]

Got filled now time to fill the log. might be last trade tonight. might need NY volume to get things moving. if this stop is hit then a lower low will be made and long is probably wrong!

 

[Triple B]

Stop now BE need to break last high and new downtrend line!