45 entry strategies!

[Triple B]

I don't trade gold.
If risk is $10 what is the value of a tick/contract?

1oz = $1220 now. So I can trade as little as 1oz. Or 0.01 of a contract which is. 100 oz.
A tick is 1c.
So for say a 10oz contract every $1 move is $10
100:1 leverage so 10oz margin = $122usd. X 1.4 aud conversion.
Commission is $7 in and out full contract. So 10oz contract is $0.70 in and out.
Most of my trades are around 5oz so a $2 move is $10 risk USD.

 

[Triple B]

Just been looking at MT4 chart at the last 3 months trading .
Looks like most of my profitable trades came from break outs and break downs.
some as much as 8x R
Gives me something to concentrate on for the next 100 trades.
many did not involve 200ma at all for entry

 

[aus_trader]

1oz = $1220 now. So I can trade as little as 1oz. Or 0.01 of a contract which is. 100 oz.
A tick is 1c.
So for say a 10oz contract every $1 move is $10
100:1 leverage so 10oz margin = $122usd. X 1.4 aud conversion.
Commission is $7 in and out full contract. So 10oz contract is $0.70 in and out.
Most of my trades are around 5oz so a $2 move is $10 risk USD.

Tripple B, Good analysis of the trading cost hence like given.

Don't forget the spread cost as well, i.e. the difference between the bid and ask. It is a cost because let's say you go long then when you buy the order is filled at the ask price but when it's sold or stopped out it's at the bid price. So round trip you would incur the bid/ask difference which is called the spread. By the way since your broker charges commissions, I assume bid/ask spread would be lower. What is the spread during normal business hours ? Weekend spread is usually large and hence cannot be considered their average/typical spread.

 

[aus_trader]

Allow me to posit that you only have four (2 x 2) entry methods and that these are based on what happens at any of your levels. A level is a price or a price zone whichever you prefer. You mention lots of names for these levels, support, resistance, 200ma etc. You decide on these levels at the start of your trading session.

Where is price in relation to any of your levels? Levels nearest the price will be the important ones initially.

If price is below a level then you only have two entries, a break-out or a reversal (fade) to consider.

If price is above a level then you only have two entries, trade the bounce or the break-down.

Having many levels will provide many opportunities, just don't try trading two levels at once.

Makes sense Peter. I knew there couldn't be 45 different entry methods

 

[Triple B]

Tripple B, Good analysis of the trading cost hence like given.

Don't forget the spread cost as well, i.e. the difference between the bid and ask. It is a cost because let's say you go long then when you buy the order is filled at the ask price but when it's sold or stopped out it's at the bid price. So round trip you would incur the bid/ask difference which is called the spread. By the way since your broker charges commissions, I assume bid/ask spread would be lower. What is the spread during normal business hours ? Weekend spread is usually large and hence cannot be considered their average/typical spread.

mentioned in about post 8
spread is already included in gross profit but I understand your point. so say 15c in 15c out =30c per 1oz
might calculate what I lost in spread tonight. for now assume average contract size was 4oz x 30c x100trades =$120 from my 0 spread profits !
ECN Broker (FP Markets ECN raw account)

FYI spread is usually about 12-15c

 

[Triple B]

Previously I had been trading breakouts on fx and gold. 5min time frame
3 x USD pairs. Eur USD 0.2pips (not a typo) spread usually GBP USD about 0.5 pips spread & AUD USD around 0.9 pips spread.
Also gold and some oil ASX 200
So really trading the USD and picking the BO with the best potential RR ratio.
Breakdowns as well.

I had around 50% win rate scalping breakouts/downs , and seemed to be profitable. kept some stats but had a couple bad nights and dropped the idea.
So after looking at the gold trading and seeing all the BO profits I decided to have a go on Friday night.
BOs and BDs using trend chanels, support and resistance ,profit targets at 200 multi timeframe ma's
Nearest Support and resistance.
EUR /USD, AUD/ USD, Aus 200 SP 500 Gold USD Brent oil. 15min charts
$10R was adhered to . maximum 2 full stop orders ie $20 heat at any one time . stops moved to half times R ie $5 when price moves from BO/BD line to protect against the dreaded fake out but still allow for price to test the new support/resistance
22 Trades 14 wins 8 losses of these 5 were BE trades that were considered as BE under $1 win or loss. So Excluding the BE Trades 17 Trades 9wins 8 Losses

P/L inc BE trades Won $87.64 Lost $46.38 costs $7.28 excl spread

Im going to forward test this for 100 trades to start and if it shows promise continue to 1000 testst trades . I do feel i should have stopped at 10 trades as the profit was the same then with less losses.
perhaps a 10trade limit per night is in order.
I like this fast type of trading , very active drawing lines , moving stops to BE , calculating mentally .
but it is tiring , and you need no distractions . Im thinking 1 hour at london open then 1 hour at NY open . i go to bed at midnight anyway so Ny open is not too late at 11pm Sydney time.
Will post back at 100 trades if anyone is interested.

The goal with this FX trading is to learn to trade actively , with the potential to produce another smallish source of income . perhaps eventually $500 per week.
the testing over 1000 trades should help me determine first is it viable profitable strategy . drawd down potential and capital needed.
My ASX cfd trading Is intended to grow ofer the next 10 years to eventually withdraw a portion at a time to trade non leveraged on the asx with.

 

[aus_trader]

mentioned in about post 8
spread is already included in gross profit but I understand your point. so say 15c in 15c out =30c per 1oz
might calculate what I lost in spread tonight. for now assume average contract size was 4oz x 30c x100trades =$120 from my 0 spread profits !
ECN Broker (FP Markets ECN raw account)

OK got it. I missed the earlier post, so thanks for clarifying.

 

[aus_trader]

Will post back at 100 trades if anyone is interested.

Sure, keep us posted.

 

[Triple B]

1st Week of forward testing complete .
49 Trades . looks like I have something to work with .
Lets see if i can get the spreadsheet up..........


risk was $10 .
started at $251 so risk at start was 4%
now at 2.5% if I get to $500 risk will then stay at 2% to $1000
Will post Analysis sheet next For the practice!)

 

[Triple B]

here is the analysis sheet:
next week going to work on position sizing . working on one improvement at a time and testing for 50 trades : then if happy on to the next improvement. I have a list of things to work on , on my big whiteboard.

 

[Triple B]

Nothing much happening on the 6 pairs I trade tonight. NFP @ 11:30pm. Im staying out of that .
.same thing last Friday Night , nothin doing until the last few hours NY time when Im asleep.
I might put a couple orders on after NFP settles. Gold may pop the 4hr R tonight.
So after the second week forward testing , 92 Trades .
Heres the Stats. Interesting to note the expectancy tool(not Shown) with these numbers in and averaging out the risk at 3% after starting at 4%R =$10 and finishing At 2%R =$10 comes up with varying figures between about $450 and $700. from $251 Start Im at $501 with 8 trades to Go.
Plenty of work to do now.White board full of things to test . I expect a good 6 Months work.
I would give the past 2 weeks trading a 6/10. Lots of rubbish trades ,looking to get win Rate above 50% for reduced drawdown chances.

had 2 losing Nights -$26 and -$40
My first Profitable Month ever!
Got a margin Call for $0.43c oops!
All R was $10or close (below $11 ), 2 exceptions were $11 ish and $12 due to slippage.

Worked on position sizing and calculating required lot sizes . definite improvement ,and worth the effort. Leaving Trades on to hit set target price is next 100 Trades focus. too many chicken close trades at 2:1 ratios ,then go on to hit well set Targets.
Also learning to set orders and walk away from laptop.
now Using MT4 Alerts to Ph and it works well. spent 4 Hours prepping pool for paint on thursday afternoon while Trading!
So for the Stats lovers...............

 

[Triple B]

For those without a fancy trading log and using MT4 you can download a very handy detailed report of any trading period from the platform.
Open the terminal , open account history, right click on the top bar , click on one month ,3 months or custom period. you then click on download detailed report and save it to your computer.
locate it and open you will see all your trades in that period.
Also handy stats at the bottom.
I post mine below. There are differences between my MT4 stats and my Log pic i posted
This is because I took 1 trade on friday night that was a loser after posting the Log pic here.
Also the number of trades in MT4 was 100. now 93 in log.
This is because i made 7 fat Finger Trades(made same trade 3 times due to computer glitching and entered and executed 4 bad orders, must slow down) and did not want these to affect the stats.
I did deduct the $4 these mistakes cost from the log to keep profit amount in line with account and made a note in the notes section of the log.
Also note the 9 consecutive losing trades that cost only -$17.29
some of these losers were less than $1 and counted as BE in my log
So win % is less than in Log at 40% due to these mistakes but pay off is higher......make sense?
Next 100 trades I will include any errors like these so it should match MT4 Exactly.

 

[Triple B]

What to work on..

After spending an hour tonight looking at my profit trades I saw several that I closed before target was hit. some of these went on to not only hit the initial target price but went further.
So for the next 100 trades , same strategy but will be leaving all trades to hit initial target .
No chicken closes. Will get stop to BE when price has moved to 2XR Profit. on 2 x R + Targets So all profit trades will be minimum 2 x R. looking to lift payoff towards 3.
2xR targets will still be at BE at 1XR price
Also going to work on screenshot link to trading log for each trade.
I have 2 Stop placements at the initial open of Trades.
One is below Trading Range if 2xR target set and the other is a tighter stop below breakout candle inside Trading range . This stop is usually for the 2xR + setup and seems to work well with the 4 hr trend direction trades. Also use it on gold a fair bit as the Breakouts and break Downs on gold tend to move and not look back.
Will post marked charts if there is interest and time.

 

[willoneau]

What to work on..

After spending an hour tonight looking at my profit trades I saw several that I closed before target was hit. some of these went on to not only hit the initial target price but went further.
So for the next 100 trades , same strategy but will be leaving all trades to hit initial target .
No chicken closes. Will get stop to BE when price has moved to 2XR Profit. on 2 x R + Targets So all profit trades will be minimum 2 x R. looking to lift payoff towards 3.
2xR targets will still be at BE at 1XR price
Also going to work on screenshot link to trading log for each trade.
I have 2 Stop placements at the initial open of Trades.
One is below Trading Range if 2xR target set and the other is a tighter stop below breakout candle inside Trading range . This stop is usually for the 2xR + setup and seems to work well with the 4 hr trend direction trades. Also use it on gold a fair bit as the Breakouts and break Downs on gold tend to move and not look back.
Will post marked charts if there is interest and time.

you mention some trades went above your target, closing the positon when target is hit removes your chance of a big move.Wouldn't tightening a stop and trailing be good, guess stats your getting may or may not prove it.

 

[Triple B]

you mention some trades went above your target, closing the positon when target is hit removes your chance of a big move.Wouldn't tightening a stop and trailing be good, guess stats your getting may or may not prove it.

I have closed a few trades where the target was 3:1 or more at 2:1 profit. ie closed before initial target is reached.

these next 100 trades will be leaving them alone to hit initial target . See how that goes .
The next 100 after that I may test having no set target , but still minimum 2:1 where a first target would otherwise be set.
when I looked at the stats my overnight trades( not closed till the morning our time) were high R multiple trades. But there was only a few.
So many ways to do this . Can really only test one way at a time.
Have also been considering a trailing stop strategy to test.
There are a couple trade type I would think the no target strategy could bag some 5xR + trades.
This will take some time.
I am testing multiple entry types at the moment so I can weed out the worst .After this 100 i should be able to narrow down to 6 or so entries.
Thanks for the ideas, keep em coming

 

[willoneau]

For those without a fancy trading log and using MT4 you can download a very handy detailed report of any trading period from the platform.
Open the terminal , open account history, right click on the top bar , click on one month ,3 months or custom period. you then click on download detailed report and save it to your computer.
locate it and open you will see all your trades in that period.
Also handy stats at the bottom.
I post mine below. There are differences between my MT4 stats and my Log pic i posted
This is because I took 1 trade on friday night that was a loser after posting the Log pic here.
Also the number of trades in MT4 was 100. now 93 in log.
This is because i made 7 fat Finger Trades(made same trade 3 times due to computer glitching and entered and executed 4 bad orders, must slow down) and did not want these to affect the stats.
I did deduct the $4 these mistakes cost from the log to keep profit amount in line with account and made a note in the notes section of the log.
Also note the 9 consecutive losing trades that cost only -$17.29
some of these losers were less than $1 and counted as BE in my log
So win % is less than in Log at 40% due to these mistakes but pay off is higher......make sense?
Next 100 trades I will include any errors like these so it should match MT4 Exactly.
View attachment 90138

Is it possible to use it with ctrader ?

 

[Triple B]

Dont Know will. If you have an account history feature(most platforms do I would guess) you can have a look through there.

So after getting all exited thinking "ive Got this ' and having a good first couple weeks,
It all went pear shaped. coulnt win a trade and had something like 0 wins in first 20 trades in this batch of tests. Got whipsawed by the crab Market early in the piece.
I did not have daily stop loss limit in place so just kept going. Then decided to start lookinh outside the 6 pairs i had been trading . Started to get a couple winners but still low win rate .
So after about 70 trades and about 40% drawdown I decide to stop trading and review,.
what stood out was The only pair that i had positive expectancy in was XAU/USD. after 9 trades in gold.
I looked back to the first 2 weeks results and my best pair was .........XAU /USD!
In fact the majority of my profits about $150 were in gold the first 100 Trades.
After looking through my MT4 account history for the last 3 weeks at the top 10 Profit Trades 5 were in Gold. 4 of these were profit targets that were hit and one was manual close very close to target.
So here are the stats , have a bucket handy

So ........What to work on?
Prior to these tests i had been trading gold alone (mostly) for a few months just learning to keep my money.
I would have enough in my account to cover deposit margin for up to 0.10 lot aprox $140 and then $100 as loss margin. the goal was to make that $100 last the month! I did it the first month and as a reward "punted" it on The NFP( non Farm Payroll) . on the first Friday of the month! Lose most of it in a few trades trying that . Then deposit the $60 or so to make $100 and try to make it last the month again. Did this 3 times and made it last 2 times and 1 time had about $80 left.
Risk was always $10 so around 4% of total account or 10% of "trading" money $100

Back to what to what to work on....during the 3 weeks of testing there were 21 gold trades
First 2 weeks 13 trades 54% win Profit $150 Pay off Ratio 3.25:1 Expectancy 11.51
3rd week 8 Trades 38% wins Profit $57 Pay off ratio 4.19:1 expectancy 7.21
GBP USD and GBP AUD was also good in the first 2 weeks as it was in a nice downtrend(might be something in that )
So although a small test size i think its worth trying the gold diggin.
Going to focus on gold alone for 100 trades. 2 types of trades ,intra day using 15 min chart and maximum 3 trades per night , and overnight holding. 2 max attempts at entry.
The overnight trades seem to be the most profitable. I go to bed at about midnight right when NY Opens and often leave a trade on when I go to bed . The most movement seems to happen when I m asleep! This is good as I cant F#$k it up when Im asleep can I?

The main issue is that sometimes the trade wont hit the target and then comes back for a full Risk stop out. very annoying because if I was at the screen , It would be a BE Trade.
I believe there is a couple EA (programs ) that move the stop to BE automatically when the price reaches x Profit or points. Might look into it.
Also have used auto trailing stops successfully in the past so will use them to .
Maybe not for the first 50 trades.
So the next 100 tests will take at least a month ,at 5 max trades per night 3 intra day and 2 max for overnight. easy to keep track of stats for both with the fancy spread sheet.
Also might start another thread like Will did with GBP USD but for Gold , helps pass the time and I think the forum could use some more trading chit chat. Feel free to join in, and discuss your trading whether in gold or not.
Brendan

 

[peter2]

I liked the post, not the stats. Congrats on having the good sense to monitor them.

Gold eh, that's a tricky one to trade intraday because the spread can be significant. Your overnight trades have a better probability of earning most of your profits if you can keep them open long enough.

 

[Triple B]

Gday Peter . Brexit Minister just Quit. GBP Gaaaawn.

Spread for Gold is pretty good for gold with my Broker prob best around . variable 12-15c
so costs are per 1 oz (1micro lot) 7c commission in and out and say 30c in and out
looking at moves around $5-$10 on the 15min charts.
when its moving only takes 10 seconds or so to cover the spread
Most seem to be 30c spread so 60c in and out

 

[willoneau]

Look forward to seeing how your gold trading goes, will put up XAU/USD if you are going to trade that chart? and enjoy following your thread.