GDN - Golden State Resources

[Haveacrack]

DATZ
I appears we are getting smashed from all sides - comp ann. certainly not helping and a very soft ASX and world market. I agree with you and will also keep everything crossed as there's no point getting out of GDN now.

 

[DAZT49]

This from the HC site..take it as you will..
A post from Niel_WA

Market sentiment has driven the share price down, not fundamentals.

The fundamentals have improved, not worsened, since the SP hit $1.20 just before drilling into Leadville as we now know two things:

1. There is flowing gas in at least one formation after only a mini-frac, which will improve even further after the full fracturing. This has been good enough that the company has decided to get a workover rig to prepare this for the "excellent potential for production" - you cannot get any closer to saying this is commercial without breaking ASX rules until production testing has been performed.

2. There are other potential producing formations yet to be tested, including an oil show.

3. Some gas was present in Leadville - and the top of leadville at the depth they hit is was a transition zone. For those that don't know, the transition zone is the interval between the gas above and the water below. The composition varies within this zone from pure water below the zone to pure gas (+/- oil) above the transition zone. Typical thickness in Mississippian sandstone in Utah is about 40 foot and never more than about eighty to a hundred foot (see a previous post of mine for a graph of this). Gas will not be detected at all more than about a hundred foot below the top of the transition zone in sandstone. What this means is that if they had hit Leadville 40-80 foot higher they would have been in near pure gas. The gas they did get from Leadville on the show was ethane/methane predominant (ie. sweet gas - capable of being produced).

Why this is so good is that they are a long way down dip in leadville where they drilled, and in fact Leadville was much deeper AND THICKER than they initially thought. This means there is almost certainly not only an awful lot of depth of leadville that is full of gas above this drill-hole (more than would have been initially thought) but that it is also thicker - so the reservoir potential is massive.

This information seem to have gone completely gone unnoticed by almost all of those on this forum - though has been alluded to in the report post leadville testing. Check the meaning of "gas-water transition zone" yourself to get a better understanding.

The only thing that they need is to stay solvent until the massive potential has been realised and this low SP is not helping.

This is why the third of fourth well will be the critical ones here when they will target Leadville up-dip - as given their cash position they will likely drill two more development wells into Barker creek and above to get cashflow.



You have no idea of my motives when you read this post so research any issues I raise yourself.

Be skeptical of what you read on a forum (No matter how apparently well-respected the poster - those praising them may be the same person praising themselves though another nic) and research all information elsewhere before acting on it.

 

[chance fate]

Chance,
Cant find that post by Wally on HC, do you have the ref number?
He is about the only one on that thread who makes any sense. Dont know what those guys do for a job GDN has 100's of posts!!

sorry dazt, no i don't but it was headed Update 3 if that helps....and i gotta puff this out to make 100 letters or i'll get points deducted again...

 

[DAZT49]

Found it CF thanks.
Sp is at least up today, it would be nice if the bleeding stopped.
Are you considering picking up the the U entitlements? Be nice to have more info. Saw a post claiming that the float price would be $2.65...yeah, and 'rabbits might fly out of my butt' (Waynes World)

 

[chance fate]

...yes i would get the U thingy... need to wait and see what the initial drilling produces... so yes i'm not ready to bail until the last report comes out on the gas.. blessed by the Pope and inspected by the Queen and all....

 

[DAZT49]

u drilling to commence 19th June-results WITHIN 3 weeks (takes us to 9th July) record date for entitlements 10th July.
Completion rig for Para1 due 15th June (tomorrow our time but really Saturday) for stimulation and fracturing of Barker Crk.....results....?????????
Gunna be tight.

 

[chance fate]

... just to add some light to the gloom.... i'm starting to think the fact they're going ahead with the full bifta frac job on the mini-fracced Barker Creek is a very positive sign... gotta be real careful not to type 'frac' too quickly.. you get 'ar' instead of 'ra'... ... would be good to get a comment from roses_ny if he's still around....

 

[DAZT49]

guess you keep an eye on the squabble that is HC. There was a post called 'some thoughts & questions on GDN' check the start of the thread if you are interested.(before they shot him down)
Think you may have a bit of dyslexia with the 'frac' 'fac' 'frc'
Yeah be nice to get a comment from roses-ny. I sent him an email last week but nuthin back,

 

[chance fate]

...yeah HotCopper can be hillarious... incredible what people will say for a buck - and there's alot of chirping birds on the gdn thread... much like liberal v's labour same as bulls v's bears with personal attacks par for the course.... I only really zero in on the odd one or two (bears included of course) that have something useful to say...

 

[chance fate]

just watched news item on resurgence of uranium mining in Utah/Colorado Moab... on SBS newshour with Jim Lehrer... key points:

• Resurgence (boom) of uranium mining due to foreseeable elevated uranium prices
• Old mines being reopened
• Heavy clean up cost from previous activities 30 years ago - clean up still ongoing
• Lukaemia sufferer with cancers in family keen for industry to move ahead due to split in regulator responsibilities - safety and promotion of uranium - and it's a job
• In situ mining - dissolve uranium with chemicals in the ground then pump out being considered - concerns due to risk of ground water contamination - no guarantees from miners...
• Previously lots of environmental mistakes... now more tightly regulated

 

[chance fate]

Here's the transcript from the web site - Newshour with Jim Lehrer PBS... there's down loads if needed.... have had to cut be cause it's too long!!


MINER: Fire in the hole!

TOM BEARDEN, NewsHour Correspondent: The Pandora uranium mine, just south of Moab, Utah, is back in business after lying dormant for more than 15 years. It's part of a brand-new uranium mining boom that is just beginning to sweep over the Western U.S.

MIKE SHUMWAY, Uranium Miner: We've got an ore heading here and one here that we're shooting.

TOM BEARDEN: Mike Shumway is the contractor in charge of getting the uranium out of the mine. Both his father and grandfather were miners before him.

MIKE SHUMWAY: I guess it gets in your blood. I enjoy it. I like following the ore and seeing what it will do. You never know. You can't see underground, so when you drill the holes, it's just amazing what it does.

TOM BEARDEN: Moab has seen mining booms and busts many times before, first during the '40s and '50s, when nuclear weapons were being developed, and again in the '70s, when the OPEC oil crisis re-ignited interest in nuclear power. Uranium is the fuel for nuclear reactors.

Each of those booms was quickly followed by a bust, when the price of uranium fell. But now, the price of uranium is skyrocketing, from $40 a pound a year ago to $120 today, and still climbing. It's being driven by the search for clean alternative sources of power to fossil fuels.

It has also spurred a frenzy of prospecting and new claims. Shumway himself has purchased more than 150 old claims because he's convinced this new boom is going to last.

MIKE SHUMWAY: We need to go nuclear, and I think people are starting to realize that, with greenhouse gases. And it's safe. It's clean. It's the best power there is that we have, that we know of, and there's abundance of it.

 

[DAZT49]

Looks like you were talking to yourself last night CF.
I tried to get on but had probs logging in.
GDN had an ann to the market on 3/5/07 re the U Thang with this link
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/28/business/28uranium.html?ex=1332734400&en=2ee40a7e7c5a9144&ei=5088&
Wonder if it is the same item, given that it sometimes it takes a while to get items on news programs like News Hour.
I do watch that program from time to time its a bit over my head sometimes, but informative.
The roll call of Amreican soldiers who have died that day in Iraq is a bit grim
and sobering..
DOW ,Nasdq and FTSE up again overnight lets hope the GDN SP at least holds again and dream it will finish the week up

 

[the barry]

Just a question, if the current well is plugged, where are they going to get the funds to drill the upcoming wells you talk about? Chances are the majority of the options aren't going to be converted and it would be hard to see instutions throwing cash at this company again. Unless they offer the shares at next to nothing with massive dilution of the share value.
Also in terms of the u company.
Say the company is at 34 cents today and it drops to 20 cents by the time of listing,

10000 shares at 34cents = 3400 grand to buy
loss at 20 cents = 10000 * .14 = 1400

10000 * .25 for entitlement = 2500

For you just to break even the u shares would have to list at a 56 percent premium just to break even. Do you think that is going to happen?

Just something to think about.

 

[DAZT49]

TB,
I sold my options a few weeks ago (when the SP was $1.10!!!) and bought more shares. I dont really understand what happens to the other 30odd mill options out there.
In the origional prospectus I am pretty sure the funding was always for 2 wells, could be wrong.
Its a hell of a ride..the closer we get ,the further away the goal posts are.
We have 2 choices..bail out or trust that the powers that be know (sought of) what they are doing.

 

[sting]

WHY ME... almost 200% rise on oppies... i sold out mine yesterday at .045..at a loss..... they hit 12 cents just before close

SEMPER UBI SUB UBI

 

[DAZT49]

Sting,
Ouchthat hurts doesnt it.
Its Murphys law of course, and usually what happens to me.
Dont know what all that was about today but keep it rolling!!

 

[chance fate]

what the..... went out for a paddle in the morning... just got back 2.30 perth... and i'm back in the black... what's going on??? rig should be on site today... test results still well over a week away.... 9 millions shares (5% of fully diluted total) traded out of the blue....

 

[sleeper88]

what the..... went out for a paddle in the morning... just got back 2.30 perth... and i'm back in the black... what's going on??? rig should be on site today... test results still well over a week away.... 9 millions shares (5% of fully diluted total) traded out of the blue....

damit damit damit damit damit damit damit...less tax deductions for me this yr >.<

 

[Haveacrack]

that came out of the blue. Maybe, just maybe the market is starting to realise some value in GDN at these levels. For those of you back in the black, you are very lucky and for those of us who have been holding out lets all pray this is the beginning of more to come - i certainly hope it is as its in to me for a packet and some.

Putting all the pos and neg talk aside i still maintain this GDN has got something at #1, if not they would have plugged it and moved on. More fracs to come and talk of substanially more reserves once frac is complete. Surely the fundamentals tell us all is going to be ok and common sense says GDN has confidence in the well or they wouldn't keep throwing more money at it, then again its only shareholders money after all.

What do you all think?

 

[chance fate]

... here's a guess at what might be occurring... sp only as good as it's last capital raising.... fear.... 30c exercise on 30 million shares... significant amount of cash... fall close to 30c.... but why would traders want to send a company broke if options not exercised?? ... ok will stay above 30c.... will get the options converted...? hold on last recent capital rasing was actually 53c... very confused... no clear benchmark to go by... no concrete results.... result sp still very volatile.... traders' play time....