GDN - Golden State Resources

[shanty]

those last three words "traders' play time". I reckon you've hit the nail on the head.
I know GDN are sloppy, better say lousy, at the PR buisness like reporting, answering emails, posting stuff on the web and, quite incredible really for a 'respectable' company, posting stuff on their own web site. Compared with a number of other companies they're crap.
BUT they provide the most fertile ground for those busy little bees of bros to recommend a sell to the nervous and a buy for the optimistic gambler. Well it's legal of course so what the hell.
DYOR but I've been with these jokers almost since they started, never had a reply of any sort to an email, hold some 300,000, never thought of jumping ship, they might need some guidance from an old hand on how to keep the punters sweet but the answer is in the ground,luv yer all.

 

[Haveacrack]

Interesting story on 60 mins last night about indonesian gas well, geo's blamed casing or lack of which caused massive amounts of water/mud to spew from the earth.

Thankfully GDN did the right thing when they had casing failures which as a result caused completion to drag on for quite some time. They are back on track and proceeding with fracturing so all being what it should we shhould start to see more frac results. We are at that stage of the well we should have been at 6 months ago and it's my guess that the market is, and still is, frustrated with the time it has taken, thus the poor SP.

I'm liking what i have seen this morning, traditionally the stock spike a little and retreats below its previous close. This morning it has done this but stayed about prev. close and is now moving forward into more positive territory. there doesn't appear to be any real serious selling down of the stock which tells me the market is gaining confidence in what it expects from GDNs next ann.

DYOR im not an advisor.

 

[DAZT49]

Hava,
Interesting about the casing...maybe management are looking after us after all!!
Promising start for the SP. Holding on to that 43-44c area. Would have prefered if it hadnt gap opened.
Looking good on the charts too, all my indicators heading in the right direction!!!
Slowly, slowly catchee monkey.

 

[Haveacrack]

My thoughts exactly, too much money in this well to risk it all. One of their ann. mentioned that they are taking the safe approach with regard the casing - all the wait will be worth it.

Ann. just out - Maquarie Eqities have just agreed to underwrite 16.6 million options if a shortfall occurs with the option take up - now's theres a vote of confidence - and from a mercahnt bank who don't like to lose money!!!

this will be interesting..........

 

[bigdog]

ASX ann
18/06/2007 Underwriting of exercise of options
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00730495

Maquarie Eqities have just agreed to underwrite 16.6 million options

 

[DAZT49]

Disappointing finish, would have been nice to finish up on the day.
Still, good volumes ..nice and steady.
RSI,MACD etc still havent got over the median yet.
Cant wait for that Ann!! (gas)

 

[Haveacrack]

I just don't get this stock!!!!

Maq bank has agree to underwrite any short fall in the ops. GDN would not be in this position re the delays in para #1 if it were not for faulty casing and as a result of such time delays. Investors have bailed out like rats on a sinking ship. The fact Maq bank is onboard shows it has confidence in the stock. They would have gone through GDN with a fine tooth comb when completing dudiligence to ensure what GDN has is worth every cent.

And yet the SP is retreating once again...........sentiment must be terrible!!!

 

[DAZT49]

Shhheeeeiiiitte!! This stock is gunna send me crazy. I reckon you are right Hava .Sentiment..no Ann re the new rig, we dont evenknow if it is there yet.

 

[floyd]

Work Over Rig was to be in place last Friday ...
no news yet + bad sentiment = decreasing stock price ...

again ...

 

[DAZT49]

I have just sent ANOTHER email to GDN, not expecting a reply, but I suggest everybody sends one asking about the whereabouts of the workover rig.
gsr@goldenstate.com.au
And give them a pump too!!

 

[DAZT49]

Rumour on HC. Rig is in place and will commence testing on Thurs. Ann on Thurs..repeat..rumour.
Disappointing to finish down again..however..as stated I am an optimist!!.
If you are a Joe Ross follower you will recognise the potential start of a 1.2.3 low with positions 1 and 2 complete, need a higer high and higher low to establish pos no 3, then breakout of no 2 to establish a trend.

 

[DAZT49]

could confuse a stupid person...try this..........................................................................

 

[new_trader1984]

Hi, not sure if anyone is interested in knowing this demand supply amounts recently and the differences in numbers for the smart money, but thought to share it anyway.

If want to understand about this supply demand indicators ive been mentioning you can get the 2 ebooks off the inside trader website under resources you don’t have to be a member since im not but just explains how it is meant to work. There are 2 pdf files which might be of interest to some people.

Today I was looking at the demand line for the top 5 prices, this goes up and down all during the day and the final number at end of each day is what is used on the daily chart except during the day as the number changes it will still appear on the daily chart too. I also watched the top 8 and the full market depth lines but for short term price direction the top 5 and top 8 prices are the ones to likely be most accurate.

Today on the chart for the first 5 prices, around 10 55am there was an increase from 0.7567 to 2.1748 which is an increase of 2.8740 times or about 290% increase in demand in the top 5 on the buyers side compared to the sell side. At around 12 43am there was an increase from 2.1595 to 4.2565 which is almost another 100% on top or a 560% increase in demand from the opening this morning. At close it finished at 1.9171 more than the sell side but big buyers wont buy up all day which can be noticed when the demand increased at 4 separate times in large amounts today, but that also means demand dropped during the day as well. The demand increased from 1.1104 at 3.51pm to its 1.9171 at close.

The top 8 levels increased to a high of 2.2437 this morning from opening at around 0.9218, its closed at 1.4982.

The full market depth isn’t really used for short term price movements but for just an idea of the direction the price should be moving towards. At close the full market depth demand is 0.745 and number of buyers is 0.4869. The higher the demand is the blue line on the chart and the lower the red line is shows there are smaller number of buyers but they want to buy bigger amounts of shares.

On the charts the blue line is above the red line on the top 5, top 8 and full market depth at close.

The idea of these indicators is just when you see the blue line increasing it means there are more shares being bought then shares being sold, so when on the chart it said the demand was 4.25 it meant there was 4.25 times more number of shares wanting to be bought then there was to be sold. Its only to give an indication of what direction the price might start moving towards like the macd and other indicators but the demand shows an increase in buyers and number of shares wanting to be bought so may provide some people a chance to buy in earlier then those that wait till indicators have crossed to suggest a new direction in trend.

This isn’t always going to work since market depth can be manipulated and that’s why there are 3 different price intervals to use, but looking at all 3 you can get a better idea of what might happen in the near future.

The smart money indicator, many may not call it smart but just going by its name just lets people know if the buy side is buying more shares than previously then people would be expecting a price increase. So using the example where the top 5 price levels reached 4.2565 and the number of buyers/sellers ratio was 1.8888 this gives a smart money ratio of 2.2535 times bigger parcels of shares per buyer being bought then sellers are selling. The smart money numbers are only to give people an idea and doesn’t mean will work every time but it does at least suggest there is confidence in either short or longer term for the share price from current prices.

If you look over the last 5-6 days of trading before the price moved up to 40+ cents there were some big buy orders going through. Also some might say smart people don’t sit in the market depth for their trades since they don’t want to show what size parcels they are purchasing, but can look at the trades that go through during the time of increased demand and can see if anyone is buying large amounts of shares which can help show that when the demand has increased that its not just people manipulating the market depth and placing orders and taking them away at the last minute.

Also a brokerage site called trader dealer is one that is set up designed to suit traders where they can make several trades over a day so if they want to buy a very large amount of shares they can break the amount of shares into several portions to be purchased over the day for the one brokerage cost, this can be used to make people looking at the market depth think that there isn’t anyone buying large amounts of shares when some individuals could be buying large amounts of shares. Same goes for selling.

The 2 charts I have posted if look at the daily chart just before march the demand went up to 10 and a month later the price increased from 60 cents to over 1.20. Also looking at the last few days on the qu chart the demand has increased over the last week but with very little price movement, the idea of this indicator is to show when demand has increased before a price move to help with picking stocks before any movement happens. Doesn’t always work but thought this may be of interest to someone.

Just thought I would share what I have seen using these demand indicators.

 

[DAZT49]

new trader 1984,
can you give us the website for this stuff? Or can you email me the pdf files?
I always try to consider depth in my calcs. I dont want to bog myself down too much with charts ,candles,fibannacci, chalkien etc. Prefer to interpret simple bars with Bollinger Bands. i do look at RSI and MACD but just as confirmation
What program is that you use to chart it.
thanks
dazza

 

[new_trader1984]

Hi dazt49,

The website to download the pdf files is www.theinsidetrader.com.au Click on the resources part at the top and there should be a few files you can download.

Under the heading neilsen supply demand indicator there is a 2meg file its 24 pages long explains all about how the shares and buyers sellers numbers work and how to come up with the smart money ratios.

Also look at the documents under information for phoenix ai users with neilsen indicator. there is 4 documents, all of the documents have examples which can show what the demand and supply numbers mean for the share price in the near term.

The inside trader has the smart money indicator which is the shares ratio divided by the buyers/sellers ratio, moses on this forum on another thread has posted many examples of the charts from the inside trader which i think uses the full market depth for the blue line but not sure.

I use phoenix ai which i just started when they offered first month trial for 2.95 and i got the live feed and the demand supply indicator which is an extra but i think it will be very helpful for me at least.

The phoenix ai offers 3 different levels which looks at the full market depth, the first 5 price levels and first 8 price levels. This just helps to look at short term possible movements and if looking at full market depth bids at 5 cents and sells at 90 cents would have an affect on the demand ratios even though the price would not reach either level in the short term.

Using phoenix ai if have live data it will change during the day and have watched it on tick data as well and last week when gdno increased by 100-200% the demand increased about 20 minutes before the price did. Not saying it would work every time but thats just an example of what happened.

I dont use charts much but starting to learn how to use them, but so far only really look at macd and this demand supply for indications of likely price movements so far.

Looking at the demand and supply wont always work but it can offer some idea of where there seems to be bigger parcels of shares being bought compared to the sell side and if the buy side has a bit of pressure behind it normally a price move will follow.

Thanks.

 

[DAZT49]

thanks nt1984.
where is everybody?
This lifted from HC by ironworker.

Sorry for not replying until know, but Utah time is about 16 hours behind Sydney time.

Anyway, John just confirmed the workover rig is on site, frakking materials being transported to the site, permitting for #2 still with government, currently doing the plumbing and they will begin frakking this week.

 

[chance fate]

Here's another update from HotCopper-walliska (our trusted source of golden info.!!) Conflicting info. on rig location and status....

Hi folks

Have not read any other posts so may be repeating what is already known

the goose has negativitis

We spoke to Richard (I didn't - colleague did)

Drill rig onsite tomorrow - flow testing 7 days and you guessed it we are passed end of financial year.

He was pressed on the fact why put a workover rig over the hole if you do not have positive flows there - you would plug and abandon.

Response was basically a positive to being commercial

And the reason they don't have the drill rig over the hole as we speak - transport problems

apologies for limited info but what more can we say

Wally

Andrewe and sue12

 

[helpmeunderstand]

So which one is it? is the rig on site or not??? it should have been there last Friday?!?!?

When will they release there next ann?

 

[Haveacrack]

surely it must be commercial, why would they place a workover rig in place if you aren't absolutely confident the rig will be used to extract commercially viable quantities of gas. They have only conducted minimal fracs and decided to bring in the workover rig to complete fracs to continue fracs in barker - they must know what they have but can't release to the market until they are 100% sure - which will come with next ann i hope.
Am i reading this right or not - what do you all think?

 

[floyd]

on the surface that would appear so BUT

why no announc.
- Work Over Rig Arrived (was supposed toi be last Friday)
- if delayed, why and when to

also

- now, given work has not commenced, will there be an announc., facts based figures before the option expire? Is this being manifacture to extract the option money before the announc.?
- if you believe you have a productive well then why not make every post a winner and keep your shareholder (and options) aware of what is happening. You do not/cannot make statements that you cannot justify to the ASX but that does not stop you keeping everyone up-to-date on what is happening.

all this IMO adds up to No Announc + Delay = Share Price down
sentiment is bad and with justification, once again IMO