Futures trading journal - GB

[Modest]

No no I am not dismissing any of that strategy… I haven’t had a chance to review it mate! Daily is stronger then hourly, weekly stronger then daily etc in terms of structure

 

[Gringotts Bank]

ES long.

Hourly chart has higher lows.

ES 60m.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Target met.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Long ES

60m chart. Will probably take days to play out.

 

[Roller_1]

is that Weis wave volume? the numbers?

 

[Gringotts Bank]

is that Weis wave volume? the numbers?

Yes, the volume is scaled down x200 to make it easier to read. I just use it to get a very rough idea of where the volume is.

I used to think think Weis' stuff was the holy grail, had a code made up and did all sorts of configurations of waves in backtests. Never found anything profitable.

3x shrinking wave volume in the downswings is not a bad signal, but needs a lot of confirmation. Here you can see 6173 -> 119 -> 61. It doesn't look forward if you make your zigzag 0.00001. Equivalent to ROC(C,1).

 

[Roller_1]

yeh ok, fair enough hopefully you find value in it

 

[Gringotts Bank]

What a ripper.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Note to self:

Plan without believing in your plans. Do the prep work, but don't take the prep work seriously.

Success - when it comes - seems more like a kind of providence than 'working and achieving'. Hard to describe, but I reckon trading is all about mindset.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Finally - Long HSI. I think this can be ridden all the way up to 17059 - that's my target, believe it or not. Stop is at 14532.

 

[Modest]

ES 3845ish might be a good short there

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Missed my entry. Short ES if it gets back up to 3807.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Still in it it... just. Not looking great. Target is way down at 3775.

The big 57 down volume (asterix) dominates the picture, so I might be lucky.

If not, will set up for another short, and try to reach 3775.

[edit] Got stopped out whilst posting. A stop above 3820 would have made more sense. Around 3825 maybe.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

How's that, it took out my stop to the point.

Back in short. Target 3775. This time, stop is at 3825.

ES 5m

 

[Gringotts Bank]

ES. Huge move, unexpected. Stopped out.

HSI trade sitting flat. Will exit if it doesn't make its move today.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

We know that most traders lose over the long term (80-90+%). This means that the market will always move in such a way as to cause maximum pain to as many market participants as possible. So if a scenario looks highly likely - like last night's shorts - maybe these are good trades to avoid. The market won't permit a lot of people winning. It will only permit about 10% of 'chosen ones' to win. Getting to know the beast.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Will try to short ES off 3850, but it's gotta get back up there. At the moment, it looks like it's just going to continue to grind down. There's been no short entry position this morning that I could see.

HSI opens lower! The stinker keeps on stinkin'.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

I can't code this system exactly, but I've been able to get pretty close over the last few days. It's been worth doing. One thing I've noticed is how hard it is to get a profitable short system backtest! So much so that I'm considering making this long-only.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

There's 3850 (ES), but I'm not taking shorts until I can figure out how to do it and make money.

HSI finally started to pump. Biggest up day in ages, so will hold.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Long ES