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Futures trading journal - GB

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Gringotts Bank said:
When the prices retraces to my buy point, the cumulative volume of the downswing must be significantly lower than the initial up swing.
Click to expand...

Absolutely (in my own humble and un-tested opinion)

I remember you and @Trembling Hand used to have some 'Robust' conversations (back in the dark ages, lol), regarding many Futs/general trading situations.

If TH is potentially still lurking, I for one (and I assume you would be of the same opinion @Gringotts Bank ), would really appreciate his input in these difficult times:cool:
 
Do you have any Open Contracts ? ATM
In $ real time or on paper $'s
ie : What's in your logbook ATM approaching MONDAY?

Let's see how she goes
yacht-in-ocean-doldrums.jpg
 
barney said:
Absolutely (in my own humble and un-tested opinion)

I remember you and @Trembling Hand used to have some 'Robust' conversations (back in the dark ages, lol), regarding many Futs/general trading situations.

If TH is potentially still lurking, I for one (and I assume you would be of the same opinion @Gringotts Bank ), would really appreciate his input in these difficult times:cool:
Click to expand...
I think he's quite a successful futs trader. I'm not. Our arguments were around issues that he thought were tangential to trading, namely the psychological aspect.

Regarding the lower volume in the downswing, it only applies when the downswing moves below the 50% retrace (which is what this system looks for). A high volume retrace that is shallow would of course represent re-accumulation, and be bullish.
 
Not much point tracking several index futs, since they're so closely correlated. Will limit it to ES, CL and GC.

high TF bias.

ES long.
CL none.
GC short.

Whilst I'm comfortable with the trade set up, I'm not really happy with the method for finding the higher TF bias. Any suggestions out there please? When to focus solely on finding long vs short trades.
 
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Gringotts Bank said:
Whilst I'm comfortable with the trade set up, I'm not really happy with the method for finding the higher TF bias. Any suggestions out there please? When to focus solely on finding long vs short trades.
Click to expand...
That is a good question. Any indicators that you choose will be both useful and useless. I've looked at moving averages mostly and a peek at MACD. Both on higher timeframes than what I'm using to frame a trade. As you know these impulsive/corrective swings appear in all timeframes and this makes things difficult. I haven't found an indicator reliable enough yet.

I look at the nature of the swings to judge if they're impulsive (clean, fast) or corrective (slow, sloppy and not in main sessions). If I notice an impulsive move making a new swing high then I'll assume the next trade opp will be a long and wait for price to correct back in the range. When I'm undecided looking at my trading timeframe I look at a larger timeframes (4hr, Dly). Again, less than ideal but it pays to follow the larger trends until there's an impulsive move that changes the trend.

IMHO, CL was a short as the last swing down looked impulsive. However, price didn't correct enough and get into my sell zone (50 - 62%).

cl17.PNG . gold17.PNG

XAUUSD is worth a short (now) based on the impulsive move down in the prior US session. I'd check this against the USDXY to confirm.

Then we get charts like the SP500 (ES) index. Do I use Thursday's impulsive swing up or Friday's swing down as the basis for my trade.

es17.PNG ???

My aim is to keep trading in a consistent manner and let the stats indicate if my initial assessment is correct enough times to make a profit. Getting it right and hitting an extended target is a thing of beauty. Getting it wrong is part of trading.
 
peter2 said:
That is a good question. Any indicators that you choose will be both useful and useless. I've looked at moving averages mostly and a peek at MACD. Both on higher timeframes than what I'm using to frame a trade. As you know these impulsive/corrective swings appear in all timeframes and this makes things difficult. I haven't found an indicator reliable enough yet.

I look at the nature of the swings to judge if they're impulsive (clean, fast) or corrective (slow, sloppy and not in main sessions). If I notice an impulsive move making a new swing high then I'll assume the next trade opp will be a long and wait for price to correct back in the range. When I'm undecided looking at my trading timeframe I look at a larger timeframes (4hr, Dly). Again, less than ideal but it pays to follow the larger trends until there's an impulsive move that changes the trend.

IMHO, CL was a short as the last swing down looked impulsive. However, price didn't correct enough and get into my sell zone (50 - 62%).

View attachment 148132 . View attachment 148133

XAUUSD is worth a short (now) based on the impulsive move down in the prior US session. I'd check this against the USDXY to confirm.

Then we get charts like the SP500 (ES) index. Do I use Thursday's impulsive swing up or Friday's swing down as the basis for my trade.

View attachment 148134 ???

My aim is to keep trading in a consistent manner and let the stats indicate if my initial assessment is correct enough times to make a profit. Getting it right and hitting an extended target is a thing of beauty. Getting it wrong is part of trading.
Click to expand...
Clean swings, I like that idea thanks. I used to look for 'smiley' versus 'sad' swings - similar to your idea. Smiley is bullish (more curved lower pivots, more pointy high pivots), sad is bearish (more curved upper pivots, more pointy lower pivots). Sometimes there's a bit of both happening, needing interpretation but when CL smiles, it smiles big!

I'll try to remember to integrate both.

So a few new rules since starting.

  • Volume lower in the retrace swing.
  • Clean impulsive and smiley (long) or frowny (short) swings
  • If the price goes near the stop and retraces to the entry point, get out at break even
  • Shorten the stop distance, where possible


x.png
 
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WR is about 70% so far.

Average R:R is about 1:1.5

I used to have a calulator for this. Anyone know what the expectancy is? The $profit/loss will be the same on each trade, because I plan to trade micros to get position sizing right. I don't pay too much attention to maths, but so long as I'm on the right track, that's the main thing.

I've changed a few minor rules here and there. The aim is to keep tweaking if needed, and stabilize over time.
 
The way I'm determining the higher TF is too far removed from the 5m TF where I'm making my trades.

So from now, higher TF bias will be worked out as follows:
  • Mark out D/W/M FVGs above and below current price. Be mindful of which of these is drawing the price.
  • on 5 min (regular market hrs), assess over several days whether the volume is in the up or down moves
Then for the trade set up:
  • are the most recent swings smiley or frowny and 'clean'?
  • Vic 2b
  • market structure shift with strong displacement
  • retracement has lower volume
  • buy is discount zone
  • target is previous high pvot, and stop placed to give a minimum of 1:2RR
 
Just entered a CL long with a tight stop. Taken out immediately, so that's a loser. Looking to get back in on the next set up, because I still think it's going higher.
 
New CL long. About 1:3.

Stopped out immediately once again. Small losses. Volumes still favouring the downswings.



x.png
 
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