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Futures trading journal - GB

It's a pretty bad bear market. Have a look at the thickness of the bearish imbalances (pink) on the daily compared to covid 2020 bear market. Where will it end? 3060? Wherever it ends, it will be a long way lower than where we are now, imo. 3434 a key level. That's the line marking the beginning of the covid 2020 dump.

ES, daily.

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How will Mr Market (or Composite Man) manage to move the market in such a way that 80% of retail traders will lose? Because that's what he's going to do. Every single time, and on every TF.

We all know he's going to take out 3572 (the monthly imbalance), but how will he move it to that level so that 80% of traders lose in the process?
 
How will Mr Market (or Composite Man) manage to move the market in such a way that 80% of retail traders will lose? Because that's what he's going to do. Every single time, and on every TF.

We all know he's going to take out 3572 (the monthly imbalance), but how will he move it to that level so that 80% of traders lose in the process?
Mr Composite man does not have to move the Markets
The Simple fact is that smart
"BULLS make MONEY!"
"BEARS make MONEY!"

However Intra-day Greedy
"PIGS get SLAUGHTERED!"

I still wish you all the Best on what I call
"The Impossible Challenge"

Salute and Gods' SpeedXYZ Yacht.GIF
 
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Sentiment analysis might be a good way to determine daily market bias. Marketwatch usually have a provocative picture accompanying their lead story. This is tonights. Does that mean they want to move it up?

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SLAM.

Long from 3532 if it gets back there. I think it will.
Missed my long entry by a few ticks.

It fell off a cliff alright, then scrambled straight back up, like a rat up a drainpipe.

The weekly and monthly imbalances were rebalanced in one fell swoop. I knew it was going to happen. Everyone knew it was going to happen. I suppose when it's that obvious, Mr Composite is not going to retrace at all. If I'm entering on a retrace, it means I'm not going to be able to trade these big moves.
 
The high TF biases are not easy to determine right now.

ES looks very strong, like it will grind up without offering an opportunity to buy the retrace at 3688.25. That's where my buy is.
 
So far, I'd say I have no confidence in my system, even though I'm doing pretty well.
Do what you need to do to become confident.

(i) Consider reducing the size of your initial SL. You'll get stopped out a little more but you'll earn a lot more in the winnings trades.

(ii) Those Vic2b's seem to be working out OK. Perhaps they can be another setup for you.
 
Good advice, thanks Peter. I think I would have been stopped out on most trades if I'd reduced my stop distance, but I'll see what I can do.

Other:

I'm finding I do actually need the 1 min chart to catch big moves. If a big move is coming, there will be an opportunity to get in on a retrace. It's right at the start, it's usually generous, and then it takes off, never dropping back under a 50% retrace until the move is finished.

If you can see a big move coming (say there's massive volatility like the other night), you won't get a chance to trade this Vic2b set up on the 5 min TF. Composite Man doesn't want traders getting in on the retrace if there's a big move in play, because then too many retail traders would win.

Notice how the market waited for the news to move ES below monthly and weekly imbalance zones. They used the bad numbers to pick up liquidity then move it higher. It's all rigged. Composite Man will kill you if you're not in tune with him. And he'll give you more money than you know what to do with if you are in tune.

Composite Man will always move the market in such a way that 80% of traders lose.
 
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Appreciate the time put into the Thread Gringo ..... :cool: I love Futs trading but have never been particularly good at it (low discipline threshold lol). Good luck and I hope you do well with it.
 
Basically I'm trading a type of ABC, with 'A' as the Vic2b pattern.

For longs, the price zigs up, it zags down (retrace), which is where I want to enter, then offload it back at the top of the first zig (or stop out if it goes below the starting point of the first zig up). I enter at an FVG, so long as the FVG is in the lower half of the upswing, ensuring an RR>1.

Something I'm going to add - a new rule. This is for long trades, vice-versa for shorts.

When the prices retarces to my buy point, the cumulative volume of the downswing must be significantly lower than the initial up swing.

Makes sense doesn't it? It would be ridiculous to enter a long trade if the volume in the swing down to my buy level was (say) equal to the initial upswing. This is where I need a swing-based cumulative delta volume indicator (a true delta, not the crap that you get on TV and most charting packages). SierraChart has excellent studies for this, but I'm going to compromise for now. NT8 has them, but I don't like NT - gone right off that platform. Their support desk is completely unreliable.
 
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