Futures trading journal - GB

[Gringotts Bank]

eeek.

Still holding. So the plan was that if 4155 or 4160 don't hold, I'll sell. Will still be in profit.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

4161.25 holds, and the 1 min bar at 12.06 was very bullish.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Close enough to target, so sold. 310 ticks, best trade to date.

I think it may drift to approx 4200 today/tonight, perhaps further down. Still thinking it will get to the weekly pivot (my initial target) but will try to trade a TL set up for that.

Watching to see if gold might be a good trade at 1950 if it gets there. Not too far off.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Not happy with decision. Back in long with a stop at approx 4200.

Still watching gold and it missed my entry by one tick. Why be a dick for a tick? Because levels are levels, and if they're not hit (exactly), it means something.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Long gold at 1970, and will double down at 1950 if it drops. Missing the 1954.1 level was significant, and it means that if it runs now, it won't go as high as if it did touch it. Still, it looks like there's some buying, and it is oversold. Comfortable because 1950 is a very likely support where I can average down if needed.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

ES

A few very unusual green bars on the 1 min. At 20:25pm, 21:00pm and 21.02pm. Strong volume divergence.

Normally I'd intepret this as bearish, but given where we're at, and given the price hasn't dropped following this, I think it's an attempt to control the price a bit longer in this range. They may have to take their foot off the brake soon.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

ES. Took a small profit 25 ticks. Don't mind waiting till I can see what's happening better. Being so shy of the recent high on 2 attempts made me re-think.

Gold doing the sideways dance.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

ES back in. Some of the buys are enormous.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Sold gold 1977.4. Was not expecting that huge pump. 77 ticks. My RR was about 3:1 on this trade because I was allowing for a scale in.

ES not looking great. Hoping it may find support here.

edit: nope. Sold. Now got to go back and re-assess those weird 1 min bars. Don't want to repeat that again.

edit 2: Back in on the bounce. Call me Whipsaw Mcgraw.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Clawed back some of the loss, but overall a red day, even with the win on gold. Not terrible, but not good.

Still believe ES has a lot further to go up, but too tired right now.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

I reckon a lot of retail traders were thinking like me last night - this thing is set up to run! There were some big buy trades along that plateau, but every time they happened, the selling matched and/or bettered the buying volume. There was about 5 instances of this. At first I thought it was bearish, but then decided they were trying to control the price at that level for a while longer. That was stupid.

Why would the banks want to keep the price at a plateau? How much liquidity are they going to capture by keeping it in a tight range? Virtually none. They pick up liquidity by pushing the price below old lows. When they have enough, they let it run up. I thought they had plenty of liquidity from the past week to take it higher (and they do - it will continue up), but just not yet.

So my mistake was to mix up my timeframes. Longer term bullish, short term correction. Happy that I saw the signs of a small correction last night, not so happy I misinterpreted it. Quite possible to big buys were faked by the banks to draw retail in, but I know how to spot that now.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Important to assess the emotional landscape too. Even though this is paper trading, I think there may have been some greed creeping in. Greed is the desire to grab at something before it's offered up; fear that the desired object or situation might get away unless we grab at it. So greed = fear, and fear in the emotional make-up of a trader will manifest as losses. I haven't actually felt much emotion paper trading so far, which is completely expected. But I think if I tune in I can find them and work on them. Need to put a reminder on my PC for this, because it should be something I add to each trade.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

ES currently 4203. No man's land.

May go long at 4187.25, for a small trade of 25 ticks.

If it goes above 4210.75 with solid buying, will also long and aim for 40+.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Trendline
L 4201.75
T 4202.5

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Trendline
L 4201.75
T 4202.5

15 tix

 

[Gringotts Bank]

gold

L 1984
T 2002

 

[Gringotts Bank]

ES

L 4204.25
T 4210.75

 

[Gringotts Bank]

ES

L 4204.25
T 4210.75

Not selling ES there.

New T 4221

Gold starting to look the goods now.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Not selling ES there.

New T 4221

Gold starting to look the goods now.

Another 65 tix on ES.

Will double down on gold if it falls to 1954.8

 

[Gringotts Bank]

ES might need to double bottom here before any more upside, and it won't offer much. Maybe 20 tix.

1m