FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[michael_selway]

Look back at GreatPig! The first poster of FMG at $3.00.

August 2006.

GreatPig, did you buy back in? Have you made a killing?

I feel for you....

$10,000 would be worth $140,000

Who is to know?!

Absolutely crazy, does anyoen know the mine life of thsi stock?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS -26.2 -51.4 174.2 398.0
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 60.1

thx

MS

 

[Miner]

folks
I sent two attachments for you to read.
Looks like they have blocked by the administrator.
Any way please visit

http://asx.com.au/asx/statistics/an...rchByCode&releasedDuringCode=W&issuerCode=FMG to see Andrew Forrest has sold more than million shares and invested back on Poseidon Nickel POS

http://asx.com.au/asx/statistics/an...rchByCode&releasedDuringCode=W&issuerCode=POS

Dear Joe : could you please release my mail with attachments if not done already while I am posting this for people to read and comment back.

Regards

Miner
20 Sept 07

 

[tigerboi]

i got in at mid 30's,as i believe with its resource it has & possible takeovers once it starts shipping next year,it is a genuine $100 stock, ive not listened to the doomsayers talk of late shipments due to setbacks as a result of cyclone george last year,it has access to bhp's railway if needed so if the upgrade to 55mt is too much to handle then it will go up bhp's line,its a pure iron ore play unlike bhp & rio,it has 1bt to ship of its own plus others it will surely takeover,me personally i think any shares under $45 is a bargain & as a result of getting into fmg i decided to buy huge cullen resources who have 2 jv's with fmg & 2 with bhp, yes started out as a speccie buy but the fmg connection to me was too good to pass up CUL still small cap now but fmg has proven in no time at all the market will sit up and take notice CUL'S aggressive approach to buying tenements close to fmg & bhp will start to show its benefits,it now has 10 jv's,reckon at under 10 cents is a bargain for those prepared to wait.

 

[Miner]

Dear Tiger Boi
Great observation and interesting hopes.
When did you or any one read a drilling result from FMG and aware how much actually its railways progressed ? No rail no ore goes to ship.
They sacked BGC and got into some 'friendly' dispute for $12 M with Mr Buckridge as reported in press.
Now NRW is the contractor who is a reputed one.
However it is a far call to get FOOS first ore will be on ship in May 08.

Probably it will be a ritual to get the first ship gone and a big shut thereafter.
No doubt Mr Forrest is an icon in Australia and really brave. However one more summer is to go before the ore gets into rail and ship.
Let us think positive however because the profit margin is bloody good in this project.

Regards

 

[Lyn]

FMG have been my favourite stock to watch. I purchased back when it was $17 and have just sold when it reached its all time high. FMG have the biggest tenament in the Pilbara, so they have a lot going for them, if they manage to get production occuring.

I think they will have a lot more hurdles with BHP rail access. Based on the traffic currently occuring on the rail line into Port Hedland I cannot see how sharing the line is going to work efficiently and I'm sure BHP can ealisy break the size of trains down to increase traffic flow even further. I do agree with other comments that they are prime for a take over by one of the giants.

What I know about FMG is that their stock is over priced given they are not producing anything and they have dramatic highs and lows. They are very volatile to impact from other markets. I will be buying back in but I think we will see another dramatic drop in price before the year is out.

 

[Prospector]

OK, so people generally dont seem to be selling this for profit; some think it is over valued, so are others still holding or buying in? I am holding still and have no plans to sell; a long term hold for me

 

[KIWIKARLOS]

For sure unfortunately I dont have enough cash for this baby im stocked up on BHP and you need big dollars to get real value out of these big mining stocks.
That said I think FMG has a huge potential for growth in the next 12 months, their operations are only going to expand. Still feel that they may be a tad overvalued now for what they are currently producing but the upside could be putting a good premium on the SP.

 

[tigerboi]

OK, so people generally dont seem to be selling this for profit; some think it is over valued, so are others still holding or buying in? I am holding still and have no plans to sell; a long term hold for me

hang onto it for dear life its a real long termer that will pay tremendous dividends literally.todays construction report was a timely boost

 

[michael_selway]

hang onto it for dear life its a real long termer that will pay tremendous dividends literally.todays construction report was a timely boost

It does have great numbers goign forward

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS -26.2 -51.4 201.7 472.8
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 60.1

thx

MS

 

[KIWIKARLOS]

yeah except for the next two years where your actually loosing money on your investment I think its overvalued now because of that, alot can happen in two years. They have also been going over budget in their construction works. I want to get in but there is no way im paying 47 now if it dips below 40 ill buy in for future prospects but realistically if you can't wait 2 years its not that good atm.

 

[tigerboi]

yeah except for the next two years where your actually loosing money on your investment I think its overvalued now because of that, alot can happen in two years. They have also been going over budget in their construction works. I want to get in but there is no way im paying 47 now if it dips below 40 ill buy in for future prospects but realistically if you can't wait 2 years its not that good atm.

you missed a good opportunity recently when it was down to $25.04,now on its way to double that possibly in 1-2 days

 

[KIWIKARLOS]

You're right I did miss the opportunity but it could just as easily go down to $30 again if they hit any snags in the construction or any other hiccup. From what I understand they have already signed agreements to sell their ore and BHP and RIO are in the stages of negotiating price increase for their ore this is something FMG cant do while they are tied into their contracts. With negative earnings per share for the next two years there is still more risk with these guys than the other two big boys especially considering they only have iron ore in their portfolio. I do believe they grow dramatically but I still think there will be a better entry price.

 

[Ken]

I would be going short at 49.99 if it reaches that. Funny some stocks just retrace when they hit significant numbers..

I can't short sell.

But from a traders perspective I think people are thinking the way I would be...

It has risen so much, it cant keep going. Its going to go down... lets go short on it...

You cant fight this performer of the year.

Has been a phenomenon.

 

[vishalt]

Yeah seriously unbelievable share lol.

FMG & IPL have had meteoric rises in their share price, and the fundamentals aren't even strong... speculative brokers never cease to amaze me.

Maybe ERA, PDN & SMM will have their turns again too? Who knows, I only stick with big, deep & liquid assets.

 

[Lyn]

Kiwikarlos - from a local perspective. A snag is just around the corner. Word is that FMG have no hope of meeting their target of shipping in March. Recent announcements made by FMG that they are on target expect for rail construction is correct. FMG are optimistic that they can still reach their target date, however I have a source that tells me it will not be possible (I won't go into explanation why). There is also the legal wrangling occuring with BGC. I still think we will see a price drop once these issues start to impact, so hold in there for buying opportunities.

 

[tigerboi]

Kiwikarlos - from a local perspective. A snag is just around the corner. Word is that FMG have no hope of meeting their target of shipping in March. Recent announcements made by FMG that they are on target expect for rail construction is correct. FMG are optimistic that they can still reach their target date, however I have a source that tells me it will not be possible (I won't go into explanation why). There is also the legal wrangling occuring with BGC. I still think we will see a price drop once these issues start to impact, so hold in there for buying opportunities.

firstly fmg has access to bhp's rail line,the federal court has ruled so.2nd & last all the unfounded rumours has had the opposite effect on the sp,so keep them coming.

 

[michael_selway]

Yeah seriously unbelievable share lol.

FMG & IPL have had meteoric rises in their share price, and the fundamentals aren't even strong... speculative brokers never cease to amaze me.

Maybe ERA, PDN & SMM will have their turns again too? Who knows, I only stick with big, deep & liquid assets.

Hi what do you mean by fundamentals not being strong?

IPL - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 146.5 397.3 456.2 438.5
DPS 103.0 280.0 328.0 301.0

FMG - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS -26.2 -51.4 201.7 472.8
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 60.1

thx

MS

 

[Miner]

My little birdi advised that FMG has already accounted that BHPB rail would not be available before 2010. That includes legal dispute and delays. My birdie also advises that every week they receive a construction progress report and by the time it comes in public domain : Aug construction report in third week of Sept as an example by when much water has passed under the bridge.

Keep hoping like lotto win that FMG will be a full producing company even @45million tonnes per annum before mid 2009. By May 2008 you would be lucky to see that iron ore is produced even at 35 MTPA rate. If they produce 45 MTPA rate by May 2008 call me by any name.

But do not worry for that - we are not here producing iron ore but to make money. So make the money as a trader without bothering for intrinsic growth, balance sheet, EPS, EBIT, NPV, IRR, etc etc .

Let us face it FMG is not BHP or Rio and never will be. Andrew Forrest is not Chip Goodyear or Sam Walsh (Iron Ore chief of Rio Tinto Iron ORe).

But who cares : Late Kerry Packer never dealt with mines and was the richest Australian. So was Bill Gates never touched a mineral.

Dollar is dollar so long you can count them in your favour.

 

[Mazrox]

SMH report today:

"BHP Billiton may have to open its railway lines in the Pilbara region of Western Australia to third party users following a Federal Court of Australia ruling today....

The full bench of the Federal Court today dismissed BHP Billiton's appeal, but it is not expected to be the end of the matter with BHP planning an appeal to the High Court."

Check smh.com.au for full story.

A step in the right direction for FMG...

Maz
(I don't hold)

 

[vishalt]

Hi what do you mean by fundamentals not being strong?

IPL - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 146.5 397.3 456.2 438.5
DPS 103.0 280.0 328.0 301.0

FMG - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS -26.2 -51.4 201.7 472.8
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 60.1

thx

MS

umm ... fortescue hasn't produced a SINGLE bit of iron ore yet, this is all hype and fund managers/speculators are cheating their way to make money, what if it delays shipments yet again? What if collapses to a corporate scandal? Andrew "Twiggy" Forest is the only known name in that company and I saw on Lateline Business grill him on his past failures.

I retract my IPL comment as I haven't done enough research to accuse it of having bad fundamentals.