FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[Kauri]

Still can't work out where I am at with this one. The last peak was big enough to be a W5, hence I took 50% of long term holdings off the table... have left the remaining in case this is an extended extended fractal W5.. I think Twiggy has a lot more up his sleeve yet...

 

[michael_selway]

Still can't work out where I am at with this one. The last peak was big enough to be a W5, hence I took 50% of long term holdings off the table... have left the remaining in case this is an extended extended fractal W5.. I think Twiggy has a lot more up his sleeve yet...

FMG's run is better than PDN's imo

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS -1.0 -8.8 -36.8 92.9
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

 

[ideaforlife]

Michael, what do you mean by "FMG's run is better than PDN"? It seems PDN has gone up 20% today and still on the way up. Also it's price is not even over a dollar.

Thanks for explaining.

 

[Miner]

After listening Peter Quinn's lecture on Monday at Perth where he suggested that Chinese Government has allocated some $200 B( I hope not to hear mistake) to Chinese Investment organisation and they are empowered to take over big companies. He suggested that in 2009-10 China could take over rio / bhpb. Though he refused to say about FMG - I thought with a lot of Chinese clientele (or only Chinese Clientele) FMG will be a sure take over company by Chinese investors - big bonus for ANdrew Twiggy for his billions .

 

[Kauri]

Placing a stop without possibly giving back too much is geting difficult.... the W1?? is long enough in itself to be the final W5..

 

[michael_selway]

Michael, what do you mean by "FMG's run is better than PDN"? It seems PDN has gone up 20% today and still on the way up. Also it's price is not even over a dollar.

Thanks for explaining.

Hi i meant "run" since 2003, both were below the 10c range in 2003?

thx

MS

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS -1.0 -8.8 -36.8 92.9
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

 

[Mousie]

Hi i meant "run" since 2003, both were below the 10c range in 2003?

thx

MS

Depends on the price you bought in at. Not sure at what price FMG began to run, but PDN started @ circa 2c. I only noticed FMG when it was @60c. At what point did you notice FMG Michael?

 

[Sean K]

This is insane. This is the type of stock that most people dream about getting on board early, recognise the potential, have trust in their analysis, and add to their position as they go instead of taking profits. What a dream! This would have made a few people very, very wealthy. Poor me.

 

[Kimosabi]

This is insane. This is the type of stock that most people dream about getting on board early, recognise the potential, have trust in their analysis, and add to their position as they go instead of taking profits. What a dream! This would have made a few people very, very wealthy. Poor me.

Is it just me, or does this look like the Chinese Composite Index????????????

 

[The Barbarian Investor]

Its turned "Twiggy" into a triple Billionaire..and nothings been dug out of the ground yet; look at BHP then FMG, whats the story

On a side note, companies like Roche, Worsley Parson etc must be doing very wellouta this boom servicing these Mining Groups

 

[michael_selway]

Its turned "Twiggy" into a triple Billionaire..and nothings been dug out of the ground yet; look at BHP then FMG, whats the story

On a side note, companies like Roche, Worsley Parson etc must be doing very wellouta this boom servicing these Mining Groups

Is ROCHE listed on the ASX? MND, LEI has been doing well like WOR

PS: npt sure actually but I "heard" someone say about 10c

thx

MS

MND - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 35.2 64.7 69.2 73.7
DPS 33.0 56.5 61.3 65.0

 

[nizar]

This is insane. This is the type of stock that most people dream about getting on board early, recognise the potential, have trust in their analysis, and add to their position as they go instead of taking profits. What a dream! This would have made a few people very, very wealthy. Poor me.

I dont know what you define is early.
When it gets to $100, $38 will seem pretty early yes??

I got the big signal on the first big volume up day into blue skies at around $12.
Of course, i ignored it, and bought something else

 

[Kauri]

I can remember..(in another forum) about a year back, the doom and gloom surrounding FMG when after a 100%+ rise in about 2 months the price in a matter of a few days rapidly dropped something like 40%....

When viewed in context of the past year not many people would even notice that blip now!!!!

I would guess that FMG is currently well advanced with expansion plans and informal offtake agreements, and whilst they wont be released to the market anytime soon, I wouldn't be surprised if they officially come out even before the first shipment of this current construction cycle.

 

[Kauri]

Well, it took a while.. .. am using the 13 pd ma as a stop for remaining holdings... don't feel so dizzy now!!! With the range of the bars not much of a chance to pyramid in..

 

[Miner]

Is ROCHE listed on the ASX? MND, LEI has been doing well like WOR

PS: npt sure actually but I "heard" someone say about 10c

thx

MS

MND - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 35.2 64.7 69.2 73.7
DPS 33.0 56.5 61.3 65.0

Michael

Roche Mining is part of DOwner EDI now. Roche is not listed but Downer EDI is listed. It used to be Roche Bros but EDI bought it about four (?) years back. Robert Logan used to be chairman of Roche Mining and now I believe he has resigned .
Roche got mining contract for FMG.

Regards

Miner

 

[barney]

Well, it took a while.. .. am using the 13 pd ma as a stop for remaining holdings... don't feel so dizzy now!!! With the range of the bars not much of a chance to pyramid in..

Hi Kauri, looks like you might have played this one to perfection .... Well done.

I don't know EW, but the correction on FMG was a little steeper this time (probably general market sentiment included in the sums??) ............... My guess is that, if it follows the previous pattern, it might have a little further to drop/consolidate, but if it bounces back strongly off the low $36.00 area, it may just head north again .............. How are you interpreting todays action (higher volume, low range etc) based on EW ? ..............

For the Fundamentalists??? ............. I'm not great on fundamentals, but is there any foundation in the "talk" that this stock could/will eventually reach $100 ......... there are certainly not a lot of shares on offer, and the company is predominantly owned by major shareholders, so they wont be selling untill full value is reached I guess ?? .............. certainly been an amazing stock over the last few months.

 

[Kauri]

Hi Kauri, looks like you might have played this one to perfection .... Well done.

I don't know EW, but the correction on FMG was a little steeper this time (probably general market sentiment included in the sums??) ............... My guess is that, if it follows the previous pattern, it might have a little further to drop/consolidate, but if it bounces back strongly off the low $36.00 area, it may just head north again .............. How are you interpreting todays action (higher volume, low range etc) based on EW ? ..............

For the Fundamentalists??? ............. I'm not great on fundamentals, but is there any foundation in the "talk" that this stock could/will eventually reach $100 ......... there are certainly not a lot of shares on offer, and the company is predominantly owned by major shareholders, so they wont be selling untill full value is reached I guess ?? .............. certainly been an amazing stock over the last few months.

Hi Barney,
The recent moves have had me baffled but I have tentatively labelled it as I think it may be playing out. My stop is now by co-incidence 1 cent below todays close so if it closes below that tomorrow I am out. As I have added two pyramid trades to my original Jan trade I realise I may be getting out too soon but I have too much on the table to let it slide... ( still have work to do on my psychology!!).
Although todays traded range is relatively small I tend to look at the range from yesterdays close to todays close which would give us a drop of something in the order of 41/2-5%... on increased volume and closing on the days low... not a good sign for mine. ( Having said that watch me pick the low ).
The above should be taken in context to the fact that I have only been trading E/W and vol for a short time, there are others here with far more experience and knowledge that can interpret it differently..
As an aside there was a little bit of quiet bad press for FMG floating around the other day, from the cyclone victims who were publically promised by Twiggy that they would be looked after promptly, but now it is out of the medias eye they are told it will be at least two years before anything happens. I don't think it made it into the mainstream media, if it did the reaction is far too severe I think.

 

[barney]

Hi Barney,
The recent moves have had me baffled but I have tentatively labelled it as I think it may be playing out. My stop is now by co-incidence 1 cent below todays close so if it closes below that tomorrow I am out. As I have added two pyramid trades to my original Jan trade I realise I may be getting out too soon but I have too much on the table to let it slide... ( still have work to do on my psychology!!).
Although todays traded range is relatively small I tend to look at the range from yesterdays close to todays close which would give us a drop of something in the order of 41/2-5%... on increased volume and closing on the days low... not a good sign for mine. ( Having said that watch me pick the low ).
The above should be taken in context to the fact that I have only been trading E/W and vol for a short time, there are others here with far more experience and knowledge that can interpret it differently..
As an aside there was a little bit of quiet bad press for FMG floating around the other day, from the cyclone victims who were publically promised by Twiggy that they would be looked after promptly, but now it is out of the medias eye they are told it will be at least two years before anything happens. I don't think it made it into the mainstream media, if it did the reaction is far too severe I think.

Nothing wrong with your EW ............. at last I can understand your analysis ............. It would be good if the support held at $36.50 tomorrow, but that might be asking a bit too much after today .......... $36 is probably more likely ........... then again with this one who knows ..... Cheers.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Hi Barney,
The recent moves have had me baffled but I have tentatively labelled it as I think it may be playing out. My stop is now by co-incidence 1 cent below todays close so if it closes below that tomorrow I am out. As I have added two pyramid trades to my original Jan trade I realise I may be getting out too soon but I have too much on the table to let it slide... ( still have work to do on my psychology!!).
Although todays traded range is relatively small I tend to look at the range from yesterdays close to todays close which would give us a drop of something in the order of 41/2-5%... on increased volume and closing on the days low... not a good sign for mine. ( Having said that watch me pick the low ).
The above should be taken in context to the fact that I have only been trading E/W and vol for a short time, there are others here with far more experience and knowledge that can interpret it differently..
As an aside there was a little bit of quiet bad press for FMG floating around the other day, from the cyclone victims who were publically promised by Twiggy that they would be looked after promptly, but now it is out of the medias eye they are told it will be at least two years before anything happens. I don't think it made it into the mainstream media, if it did the reaction is far too severe I think.

Kauri,

If you can't see a count do you play it out anyway using other tactics, or are you strictly using EW?

I see it as in and out then sideways or down for a while. I may be wrong.

Hello Barney,

Good to see you still going at it.
Regards
Snake

 

[Kauri]

Kauri,

If you can't see a count do you play it out anyway using other tactics, or are you strictly using EW?

I see it as in and out then sideways or down for a while. I may be wrong.

Hello Barney,

Good to see you still going at it.
Regards
Snake

Hi Snake,
I try to time all the trades with my E/W counts where-ever possible, alongside vol and bar shape characteristics. On the weekly it has exceeded the max W(3) in price, although the Miner DT time component is way out..( pink rectangle).. and is starting to retrace into a W (4)??.. and as on the daily I am having trouble fitting a count to the parabolic advance I am using a basic MA exit. If I was trading very long-term I possibly would ride out any W(4) and leg it into a W(5), always assuming of course that my count is correct...
Cheers
Kauri