FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[GreatPig]

You know what they say... life's a bitch and then you die

What makes it more annoying is that there was no technical reason to sell it when I did, as it was sitting pretty much on a support level and my sell point was below that, but I just wanted to lighten the portfolio a bit and did an eenie-meenie-minie-moe kind of thing to pick one to sell - and FMG got the short straw (partly because it was the most volatile one I was holding, and I wanted to avoid a similar size drop down).

Another fairly common thing that seems to happen is getting a nice jump up, selling with say 30% profit, and then watching it double or triple in price over the next few weeks or months (hmmm... FMG again!). Alternatively, if I decide to hold in anticipation of that, the next day or so drops back 25% or more until all those gains have evaporated. The only thing that seems to determine which happens is whether I sell or hold.

Oh well, time to follow the wife's lead: when feeling annoyed, go out and buy something expensive.

GP

 

[nizar]

You know what they say... life's a bitch and then you die

What makes it more annoying is that there was no technical reason to sell it when I did, as it was sitting pretty much on a support level and my sell point was below that, but I just wanted to lighten the portfolio a bit and did an eenie-meenie-minie-moe kind of thing to pick one to sell - and FMG got the short straw (partly because it was the most volatile one I was holding, and I wanted to avoid a similar size drop down).

Another fairly common thing that seems to happen is getting a nice jump up, selling with say 30% profit, and then watching it double or triple in price over the next few weeks or months (hmmm... FMG again!). Alternatively, if I decide to hold in anticipation of that, the next day or so drops back 25% or more until all those gains have evaporated. The only thing that seems to determine which happens is whether I sell or hold.

Oh well, time to follow the wife's lead: when feeling annoyed, go out and buy something expensive.

GP

Hahahahahahahahahahaha. LOL
Its so true what you say.
Happens to even the best of us.
Well its happened to me plenty.

 

[tony montana]

pretty nice timing.....just grab a heap of fmg monday morning......made back what i lost on sdl.....got to wonder where they will stop.....when is there first ship leaving ?

 

[grace]

FMG have gone into trading halt with Twiggy about to do a media announcement at 1330. In trading halt until Tuesday. Speculation that Chinese buying in.

 

[Prospector]

I think that it relates to an announcement re the railway line. Chinese buy in would be nice though!

 

[Miner]

http://www.eurekareport.com.au/iis/iis.nsf/pages/AE505788C6D1C09FCA257394007EC693?OpenDocument
Not sure if the above link will work for you or not. It is from Charlie Aitken's report in Eureka Report. If you recall Southern Equity Director was the lone person (Broker) predicting FMG's future to be $100 when it was at $30. He can take the credit certainly. (HOpe he woudl take the credit as well for recommending SDL and its boom, clarification by SDL director to the ASX and now slower trend in SDL). By the way I have asked Peter Q from Bell about FMG in the past and he refused to say any comment. I hope he is regretting .

Primarily it is for the war against railway line. While slowly the railway line of its own is progressing and talking to one of the senior fellows in FMG the other day in a casual drink party I understand they are putting every effort to make its own line to be operational. Billion dollar at stake.
I also have attached the ASX announcement today on railway.
I agree that it is only less than 12 months FMG will be acquired by CHinese. Who knows what role CYU will play here.

Extract from Eureka Report by Charlie Aitken

[I]The way this will work is the "new BHP" will be a $400 billion-plus market cap monster representing almost 15% of the benchmark ASX200 index depending on the structure of the final deal. The question is: who will emerge to fill the monstrous market cap gap ($A63billion) that Rio leaves in Australia?

The answer is clearly Fortescue Metals Group (FMG).

The existence of FMG and its potential to be a major iron ore producer is a double-edged positive sword. Not only does the existence of FMG allow BHP to take over Rio, but the merger of BHP and Rio improves the FMG investment case dramatically. The merger underwrites FMG's long-term success as the only large scale independent iron ore producer in the world. The biggest winner outside of BHP and Rio shareholders from this deal is clearly Fortescue. The Chinese must secure diversity of iron ore supply. They will be buying and attempting to fund every ounce of iron ore FMG produces.

This is a dream scenario for FMG and you can rest assured that FMG boss Andrew Forrest and his experienced leadership team will capture the monstrous opportunity this presents them.

I did spend a little time with Andrew Forrest last weekend and I can assure you he is aware of the opportunity. He is enthusiastic at the best of times but he was like a man possessed at the weekend, champing at the bit to maximise the opportunity for FMG and its shareholders.

I stand by what I wrote after my initial visit to FMG's assets in May this year (FMG $21.00, click here). FMG will be a $100 stock and will grow to be a $30 billion market cap company with the "currency" to further rationalise and grow. FMG is the stock that will take Rio's place in the index. FMG will be a producer by May 2008 and in sharemarket terms that is the short-term. If you think this BHP/Rio deal will go ahead as I do, then the first stock you should be buying is FMG. Buying FMG ahead of the 10:1 share split being approved is clearly a good plan. [/I]""


Disclaimer : I do not hold FMG shares (I wish now to hold them)

 

[Prospector]

Gosh Miner, your thoughts have changed considerably. For what is is worth, I cannot imagine that either the state or Federal Governments are going to let the $$$ in FMG disappear because of a dispute about the railway line.

I see that Australia, because of the negatives (the drought), and the positives (minerals discoveries coupled with the resources boom), is in a stage of moving from an agricultural base to a resource base economy. Lucky we have a lot of land still to explore.

 

[ba229]

Anyone know whats going on with the stock quote with FMG today?

I thought I heard something about giving 10 shares for every one. Is this whats happened and has the code changed?

 

[Prospector]

Try FMGDA. It is around $6.10. Everything will be back to 'normal' on January 4. And now, trying to add to 100 letters!

 

[agro]

FMG successfully made a new 52 week high of 6.60 today this comes after announcing a further 700mt of iron ore on wednesday with further results and drilling expected in January.

stay tuned for FOS in may 2008.

as far as the skeptics are concerned with the debt - it was mentioned in the AFR this week that Twiggy has already set up loans with Chinese investment banks hence why he wasn't present at the AGM.

 

[BrownHornet]

Yes I do own this!. Just finished reading Joseph de la Vega's book 'Extraordinary popular delusions and the madness of crowds'. Talks of the south sea bubble, mississippi scheme and tulipomania. the moral of the story is that many always believe it can't/won't happen again. Hang on I say. Too much of the book rings very true and close to our times. Worth a read and makes me realise FMG is a gamble at very best. Sceptic hmm

 

[Miner]

Me Laggard
Bought FMGDA at 6 and on a day it rose to 6.40.
I have a strong convinction that some serious underground talk is already there for a large Chinese Buy out.
That will give Rio and BHP in a better level playing. Chinese dragon strategically acquiring and in the process of acquiring peripheral miners so that can have political leverage , financial leverage and people consumption leverage.

I would wait and see

 

[barnz2k]

had been thinking about FMG recently, and when I first looked at the days chart, for a split second, I thought It had dropped an incredible amount and was a great buy haha. 10 for 1 does not = drop!!

Will be watching though..

 

[Miner]

Hi All
Hope you are still calculating to tax cut for the Chrisy present money you spent.
I have read this note on steel producers from Indian Financial Express. It says that all steel producers in India have hiked the steel price in anticipation of the hike in iron ore, coke (affected in Australia on a positive side will be Rio, BHP, FMG and few other real iron ore producers and coal producers like RMA, Rio, Wesfarmers, etc .


[COLOR="Red"]Steel producers to hike prices on rising costs[/COLOR]
Rishi Raj (Reporter)
"http://publication.samachar.com/pub_article.php?id=935767&navname=Business%20&moreurl=http://publication.samachar.com/financialexpress/business/business.php&homeurl=http://business.samachar.com

Posted online: Tuesday , December 25, 2007 at 0117 hrs IST Financial Express

New Delhi, Dec 24 In a move that will impact a slew of sectors, integrated steel producers like Steel Authority of India Ltd, Tata Steel, JSW, Essar Steel and Ispat Industries are likely to hike their prices next month to offset the rising prices of key raw materials like iron ore and coking coal.
Industry sources said these Companies would take a final decision on the price hike by the end of the week. The sources said the hike in the price of hot-rolled (HR) coils””the base product””would be
INR 800-1,000 a tonne (1 A$ = 33 INR ) . At present, HR coils are priced in the domestic market at INR 28,000-29,000 a tonne. Globally, HR coil prices rule in the region of US $650 a tonne.
Sources said the 15-20% hike in the price of iron ore and coking coal mandates an upward revision in steel prices. While iron ore prices are at around $150 a tonne, coking coal is at around US $135 a tonne. For both raw materials, most domestic steel Companies depend on imports. With steel production rising, the supply of these raw materials has tightened considerably in recent months.
Between January and December this year, steel Companies hiked prices thrice, with the last revision in October, when prices were increased by around INR 500 a tonne.
An increase in steel prices will impact a wide range of industries, from automobiles to white goods. Automobile Companies have already announced that they would be increasing the sticker price on passenger cars from January due to rising input costs. However, a price hike is not expected in long products, which are mostly used in the construction sector, since prices are already ruling high here.
Though the government does not usually interfere in such price revisions, the steel ministry constituted a committee earlier this year under a joint secretary with industry members to monitor the price situation.
Industry sources said that since no prior permission from the government is required to raise prices, they do not apprehend any problem. "

 

[moneytalks]

SP up to $7.25 today - fantastic news for holders.

Any comments on where the Share price will be just before production in May 2008?

 

[dastrix]

I'm darn happy, paid $5.95! Just wish I brought more than what I did. I cant wait for May!

FMGDA the best in my line up so far

 

[enigmatic]

I was just wondering how much effect the lateness to deliever Iron ore would have on the SP. It is quiet common in this industry to be a little behind schedule and being the fact that FMG stock price is currently riding on "the project", do you think this would have a serious dent to the sp or not even be noticed.

 

[moneytalks]

enigmatic,

Yes, delays would have an effect on the sp. HOWEVER they are on time for May 08 and in fact have an internal target of March 08 which they are apparently determined to meet. Hopefully they can make this and if they do, being earlly will knock the socks off all the investment gurus.

SP increase today to $8 means somethings up IMO - either a takeover rumour or someone big buying in.

 

[grace]

enigmatic,

Yes, delays would have an effect on the sp. HOWEVER they are on time for May 08 and in fact have an internal target of March 08 which they are apparently determined to meet. Hopefully they can make this and if they do, being earlly will knock the socks off all the investment gurus.

SP increase today to $8 means somethings up IMO - either a takeover rumour or someone big buying in.

Is it because Chinese have just taken close to 10% in SA iron ore company??? Got the rumour mill going......

 

[enigmatic]

March 08, has always been the target for the Mine. that is to get it up and running May 08 is to get Ore on ship. which means the Port, railway need to be ready and they will need to have enough Ore mined. Yeah i have heard they are extremely determined to reach March 08 deadline. Not 100% convinced there on target though. Will see early Feb i guess when its more clear what needs to be done