FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Kauri,
Thanks.
It just goes to show the degree of the rise that took it to the highs. Yes, that time element is way off the mark.

snake

 

[Kauri]

Kauri,
Thanks.
It just goes to show the degree of the rise that took it to the highs. Yes, that time element is way off the mark.

snake

Snake,
Just to muddy the waters a tad this is the alternative E/W weekly count I am looking at... am hoping that any retracement will clear it up for me.. .. as Gann would say.. in the fullness of time...

 

[Kauri]

Exited all FMG long positions on close as it was definitely going to close below my stop, was tempted to wait and see if it opened above the stop when the markets re-open and let it run, but that would break my trading plan and set a precedent that would cost me in the long-term. Undoubtably I will have exited on the bottom of this swing.. .. such is the life of plan-based trader...

 

[barney]

Kauri,

If you can't see a count do you play it out anyway using other tactics, or are you strictly using EW?

I see it as in and out then sideways or down for a while. I may be wrong.

Hello Barney,

Good to see you still going at it.
Regards
Snake

Howdy Snake, I agree re the price action .......

I only understand very basic EW, but I am working on a plan based on patterns with Momentum and Volatility (both short term) ........... The larger cap shares with high turnover like FMG are fit nicely into the theory so far ........... Looking at the price action on Friday, FMG finished off very strongly even though it was well down on the day ............ Short term volatility is still rising while momentum may be just bottoming out If the sp gaps open next week and moves up, previous patterns show that it should have a reasonable rise ($3 back to around $39 ish), but then probably a medium consolidation period bouncing around between $38-$40 ............ The theory is very basic, but so far reliable............... always at the mercy of the market in general sentiment though

Of course if the sp gaps down, all bets are off lol

Kauri, with your EW analysis, what would be the catalyst for your next entry point (if any) ..... Cheers.

PS Just posted after you did Kauri, so you have kind of already answered my question b4 I asked it ........... Are you psychic lol ............. still interested in your re-entry criteria though.

 

[Kauri]

Kauri, with your EW analysis, what would be the catalyst for your next entry point (if any) ..... Cheers.

PS Just posted after you did Kauri, so you have kind of already answered my question b4 I asked it ........... Are you psychic lol ............. still interested in your re-entry criteria though.

Hi Barney,
To re-enter I will be looking for what I see as a low risk E/W setup, coupled with volume indications, and I just love triangles and/or ledges..
Have attached a chart of the (in this trade cycle) original and two pyramid trades... probably explains it better than I can.
I generally place two trades at each entry point, one shorter-term and one longer-term... the shorter-term is mainly for my psychology, I find the stress and temptation to exit early on the main longer-term trade during normal market swings is reduced if I have already locked in profit on the trade. ..
For my FX etc trades I use much the same criteria apart from replacing vol with a momentum based indicator.
Cheers.
Kauri...

 

[barney]

Hi Barney,
To re-enter I will be looking for what I see as a low risk E/W setup, coupled with volume indications, and I just love triangles and/or ledges..
Have attached a chart of the (in this trade cycle) original and two pyramid trades... probably explains it better than I can.
I generally place two trades at each entry point, one shorter-term and one longer-term... the shorter-term is mainly for my psychology, I find the stress and temptation to exit early on the main longer-term trade during normal market swings is reduced if I have already locked in profit on the trade. ..
For my FX etc trades I use much the same criteria apart from replacing vol with a momentum based indicator.
Cheers.
Kauri...

Thanks for the insights ...... Its always interesting to see others plans in action .............. Keep us posted for any future trades on this one ........... Glad to see this trade was a good one for you .......... Cheers.

 

[nizar]

I cant believe this was 80c in October 2004.
Gotta love long-term uptrends....

This stock is really a winner.

 

[michael_selway]

I cant believe this was 80c in October 2004.
Gotta love long-term uptrends....

This stock is really a winner.

Hi yep

But would you buy it at current prices though?

Why and why not?

thx

MS

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS -1.0 -8.8 -36.8 92.9
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

 

[nizar]

Hi yep

But would you buy it at current prices though?

Why and why not?

thx

MS

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS -1.0 -8.8 -36.8 92.9
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

MS, are you still holding ZFX that darling of yours from back in the days?
I hope not - it looks sideways at best.

I saw this at $12 in November, a mate messaged me to get in on the breakout. I didnt

But thats why you should never right off blue sky stocks.
And never think that because a stock has run so much, it cant run higher.

 

[michael_selway]

MS, are you still holding ZFX that darling of yours from back in the days?
I hope not - it looks sideways at best.

I saw this at $12 in November, a mate messaged me to get in on the breakout. I didnt

But thats why you should never right off blue sky stocks.
And never think that because a stock has run so much, it cant run higher.

nizar, ZFX going sideways atm, but as you said "you should never right off blue sky high stocks", this might be one soon!

yes stocks can go higher and higher and higher, but you have to look at the risk and return, more so than the chart alone at any given point in time, esp when its at an "all time high" etc

thx

MS

 

[adobee]

FMG in trading halt..

Financial review front page says that they will be capital raising to expand further however some people think this is to cover increased labour costs.

 

[Kauri]

In The West Australian today......
Analysts doubt wisdom of Fortescue’s fresh debt push


16th June 2007, 8:00 WST

Analysts fear Fortescue Metals Group will be under even greater pressure to meet already tight production deadlines as the total cost of its Pilbara iron ore project passes $5 billion.

Fortescue called a trading halt yesterday amid efforts by its lead banker, Citi, to finalise another massive funding campaign to raise more than $1 billion in fresh debt and equity.

Citi is reportedly seeking to raise up to $300 million in fresh equity in the Andrew Forrest-controlled company and up to $1 billion more in highinterest convertible notes.

The planned raising comes less than a year after Fortescue secured the outstanding funds needed to proceed with its $3.7 billion project, via a high-cost $3.2 billion equity raising and bond issue.

Under the original package, US fund Leucadia National stands to net more than $1 billion in repayments over 13 years on a cornerstone $535 million placement and loan deal. At the same time, Fortescue is paying up to 10.6 per cent a year in interest on a $2.7 billion bond issue to foreign institutions.

Fortescue declined to comment yesterday, but maintains that its existing overrun facilities are sufficient to cover all likely cost increases. Last month it boosted its overrun budget to $304 million in the wake of three devastating cyclones.

Fortescue’s project is initially slated to produce 45 million tonnes a year from May next year, but Fortescue has been aggressively touting plans to boost output to 60 million tonnes immediately and again to 120 million tonnes by early next decade.

But analysts said yesterday they believed Fortescue should focus on getting the project into production before placing it under greater pressure by weighing it down with fresh debt.

“The thing that worries me is the pace (of Fortescue’s expansion plans) and management’s time being directed away from getting this first stage happening, ” BBY analyst John Veldhuizen said.

Mr Veldhuizen said another $1 billion in debt would put Fortescue under significantly more pressure to generate cash flow on schedule.

“Of course it does, though they are obviously pretty comfortable with it,” he said. “But the key concern for me is whether they’re moving too quickly.”

Others wondered whether the funding was really needed to cover significant cost increases.

“The word already was that their (initial) $2.6 billion capex estimate was more likely to be $4 billion,” said one analyst. “But you’d expect that for a project of that size costs would be significantly higher in the current environment.”

Another analyst said the equity component would be needed just to cover the extra interest charges associated with the note issue.

One veteran mining boss said loading up with extra debt was a concern.

“At the end of the day, the project will be working for the bondholders, and all the money will end up with them,â he said.
JOHN PHACEAS

 

[barney]

Looks like the buying interest might be coming back to FMG over the last few days. Nice rise today on solid volume. If it follows up with a couple more days of confirmation and breaks above $37.50, may be headed back to all time highs.............


How are you reading it from an EW pov. Kauri?? Would you consider the last few days as the possible start of a new Wave 1?? If so, would you wait for Wave 2 to eventuate, and look for an entry on start of Wave 3, or are you happy to jump on early? ......... Cheers.

 

[Craze0123]

Trading Halt - I think its to raise some funds...

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070713/pdf/313fbrd4sqthkw.pdf

 

[barney]

Not sure of how much importance this may or may not be, but FMG, even though down again yesterday (monday), traded on increased volume with strong accumulation orders being placed all afternoon at around $29.50 .......... Looks to me like the first sign of "intelligent" money nibbling back in ......... certainly too early to call a bottom, but definitely a positive sign imo ............ Chart shows just how "obvious" the buying was ....

 

[tigerboi]

fmg hit a new high of $43.44 today trading around $42.75 looking to break out beyond $45, anyone still following been a while since last post?

 

[vishalt]

I should've bought this gem as it slipped to $30, my god at its speed, and it hasn't produce a single piece of ore yet lol D:, hate speculators so much!

Oh well there's still the Uranium kids down south at Summit & Paladin!

 

[Prospector]

I have been steadily accumulating FMG especially around the $28 mark. Even as late as yesterday. For what its worth, I dont think it is too late to get in.

 

[Ken]

Look back at GreatPig! The first poster of FMG at $3.00.

August 2006.

GreatPig, did you buy back in? Have you made a killing?

I feel for you....

$10,000 would be worth $140,000

Who is to know?!

 

[Miner]

Re: FMG - Fortescue Metals and POSEIDON Nickel

Folks

More news on FMG though not a surprise from Twiggy.
He has sold off a substantial stake from FMG as attached.
He also exercised his option on Poseidon Nickel.
It was expected as you could see the share price was jumping.
Net result will be in FMG a good Chinese investor will come. Don't forget FMG has already placed heavy orders for its steel equipment etc from China. Probably it will be a barter for iron ore vs equipment purchase .

Twiggy will be still the major shareholder. But that will keep the company to incorporate a higher level of flexibility and so for share prices to go up.
With POS hovering the half of price for some times mean the share price will jump with visible sign of Twiggy's interest. Please visit www.asx.com.au and see on the same day POS options exercise and sale of FMG shares by Andrew John Forrest. Nickel price has just shot up 10% and surely Twiggy has a Midas touch. Time to buy POS probably.

One ticklish question however to ask who has seen the ore body result since last 6 months from Christmas Creek ? It woudl be nice to see some one to post some news on that - real geological analysis posted in ASX.
Game has really started.
Ironically Twiggy has not put any money so far in MOL yet.


REgards

Miner