EURUSD....Euro

[strategist]

Forecast for this week, 05-09. H4 graph

The pair is trading along an uptrend; however, the “S” trendline’s break and also the picture of the daily trend, where the market is within a downtrend, speak in favor of downtrend development with the drop target seen at level 1.3190 (“F” trendline).

After the pair gets under level 1.3430, the downside momentum will grow stronger. Level 1.3530 is the resistance for now; rising above this level will be a signal of downtrend cancellation. If so, next resistance will be found at level 1.3630, and then the key resistance at 1.3710. But still, we should not count on uptrend development, because there is a large cloud of resistance levels above 1.3530 and up to 1.3710. If the pair eventually rises above 1.3740, the “forecast for the next month” takes effect.

 

[Naked shorts]

WOW what a day, never thought a double downgrade by Fitch would have moved it so much. I do think its clear sailing from here for the euro now the bailout package is supposedly been finalized (rumor atm, but the whole market believes it). This should lead the way for greater risk appitite around the world and we might see the start of another USD carry trade

 

[Naked shorts]

This should lead the way for greater risk appitite around the world and we might see the start of another USD carry trade

Until of course, Portugal needs a bailout too.

http://www.cmavision.com/images/uploads/docs/CMA_Global_Sovereign_Credit_Risk_Report_Q1_2010.pdf

 

[strategist]

Forecast for this week, 26-30. H4 graph (dated 04/26/10)
The pair has left the downtrend (black dotted) after rebounding from support level 1.3200, which speaks about development of an uptrend at the moment. As long as the pair is trading above support level 1.3290, the upside target is seen at resistance cloud 1.3457 – 1.3490. Development of the next downtrend may be expected to begin from that cloud, but it won’t be confident until the pair goes under level 1.3383. In such case it will get to support 1.3300, and if it continues to go down, it will eventually find itself at support 1.3220.

Forecast for this month, April - May. Daily graph (dated 04/26/10)
The pair has left the “B-B+” correctional uptrend, which speaks about development of a downtrend at the moment with the drop target seen at level 1.2870 – the fifth wave’s target.

Level 1.3200 offered a fair support for the pair and now we may expect a slight correction towards resistance level 1.3490, from where the downtrend development will be resumed. A more confident downtrend will begin after the pair goes under levels 1.3270 and 1.3200, after that it will head to intermediate support 1.3090 (“F” trendline) and then to target level 1.2870.

Uptrend development may begin if the pair rises above resistance 1.3584 (leaves the “F-F+” channel), after which it will head to intermediate resistance 1.3770, and if it gets over it the next upside target will be set to level 1.3960.

 

[jonojpsg]

Forecast for this week, 26-30. H4 graph (dated 04/26/10)
The pair has left the downtrend (black dotted) after rebounding from support level 1.3200, which speaks about development of an uptrend at the moment. As long as the pair is trading above support level 1.3290, the upside target is seen at resistance cloud 1.3457 – 1.3490. Development of the next downtrend may be expected to begin from that cloud, but it won’t be confident until the pair goes under level 1.3383. In such case it will get to support 1.3300, and if it continues to go down, it will eventually find itself at support 1.3220.

Just sneaking under 1.3290 at the moment - on a fundamental level, the news re Portugal now has me thinking this pair will definitely be heading back down into the major downtrend that was established from December until the bailout finally got organised a couple of weeks ago.

 

[strategist]

EURUSD forecast

Forecast for the week, 05/17 – 05/21
The pair is trading along the downtrend having the drop target set at support level 1.1865. Level 1.2200 is serving as an intermediate resistance. Current downtrend is in effect until the pair rises above 1.2500.

Should the pair rise above level 1.2500, an uptrend will start to develop with the upside target set at resistance level 1.2800. If the market moves on above that level, the upside momentum will grow stronger and the next target will be seen at intermediate resistance level 1.2980, and then at major resistance 1.3200.

Monthly forecast, May – June
The pair is trading along the downtrend having the drop target set at support level 1.1655. Intermediate supports are seen at levels 1.2200 and 1.1865. Current downtrend is in effect until the pair rises above level 1.2800.

Should the pair rise above level 1.2800, an uptrend will start to develop with the upside target set at resistance level 1.3100. If the market moves on above level 1.3100, the upside momentum will grow stronger and the next target will be seen at intermediate resistance level 1.3660. If the market gets over that target, it will reach resistance 1.4345.

Quarterly forecast, May – July
The pair dropped below level 1.2700, where the neckline of a “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure resided. That caused the downside momentum to grow stronger. The drop target is currently seen at level 1.1655. If the market goes below that level, it will reach level 1.000.

An uptrend may be started upon the pair’s rising above level 1.3100. Then the market will go up to resistance level 1.4630 (“Q” trendline).

Yearly forecast, 2010 – 2011.
The pair dropped below level 1.2700, where the neckline of a “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure resided. That caused the downside momentum to grow stronger. The drop target is currently seen around 0.9890 – 1.0200. Current downtrend is in effect until the pair rises above 1.3100. Intermediate resistances are currently seen at levels 1.1655 and 1.000.

The figure will be cancelled and an uptrend will be started in case the pair rises above 1.3100. Then the upside target will be set at resistance level 1.4630.

 

[iced earth]

EUR/USD : 25 MAY 2010:

As predicted before( https://www.aussiestockforums.com/for...3&postcount=27) , the pair is moving in a bearish channel, also in weekly view , we have a pull back after breaking the valid long term resistance line.

 

[iced earth]

EUR/USD: 2 June 2010:

The pair could not break up the upper line of the bearish channel (many times touched it, make it more valid) - now we can see a bearish triangle has formed within this channel. The goal of this tri could be at the lower line of the channel (pic 1)

in weekly view the long term resistance line is been break down ( after one short pull back as I posted above) - now we can see the most important resistance is the low of Aug 2005 around 1.16 (pic 2) - this target is the same as the bearish triangle and channel target as mentioned above.

 

[MRC & Co]

"Full blown capitulation from the Goldman FX (strategic not tactical) team: the firm goes from a $1.35 target on EURUSD to $1.15. Score one more golden star for Goldman-Client relations. On the other hand, Thomas Stolper is officially advising clients to sell their euros to Goldman. There is no clearer signal to buy the beaten down currency." - zerohedge

I agree - Spain should get away it's last batch of bond supply in just over two hours, markets are frontrunning this already as the potential 'inflection point', yield spreads on EUR periphery vs EUR core should come in, and the EUR should get a kick up. Lots of shorts still in positions in IMM data, GS trying to feed them to their clients.

Well played GS, but the mug punter and plenty more hedgies can play that same game if you can spot it!

Salud!

 

[white_goodman]

hmmm

 

[Trembling Hand]

"Full blown capitulation from the Goldman FX (strategic not tactical) team: the firm goes from a $1.35 target on EURUSD to $1.15. Score one more golden star for Goldman-Client relations. On the other hand, Thomas Stolper is officially advising clients to sell their euros to Goldman. There is no clearer signal to buy the beaten down currency." - zerohedge

I agree - Spain should get away it's last batch of bond supply in just over two hours, markets are frontrunning this already as the potential 'inflection point', yield spreads on EUR periphery vs EUR core should come in, and the EUR should get a kick up. Lots of shorts still in positions in IMM data, GS trying to feed them to their clients.

Well played GS, but the mug punter and plenty more hedgies can play that same game if you can spot it!

Salud!

Good call Mr C. Very nice little pop. Funny how the AUDJPY etc got most the lift.

 

[MRC & Co]

Good call Mr C. Very nice little pop. Funny how the AUDJPY etc got most the lift.

Thx mate!

Yeh, given the 'risk rally' another little booster, a final sucker for the bulls I would imagine with lead indicators showing Q2 and Q3 should be very soft (obviously, data not confirming that yet, other than NFPs which everybody got a bit over-excited about).

Everyone toast their glass of Don Perignon to GS, the second best FOREX firm in the world!

 

[Wysiwyg]

Non farm, non government estimated employment changes less than 1/4 of those forecast. Apparently this estimated data is in alignment with the actual employment figures released this Friday.

 

[Wysiwyg]

EURUSD forecast

The pair is trading along the downtrend having the drop target set at support level 1.1865. Level 1.2200 is serving as an intermediate resistance. Current downtrend is in effect until the pair rises above 1.2500.

Well done. The low put in on the 7th June was 1.1875 and within 10 pips. Highly accurate forecast. Missed on the resistance level though.

Thanks.

 

[white_goodman]

hmmm

I must be of Mayan ancestry

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

you guys at propex trading the 6E from the order book?

 

[strategist]

Current trend is sideways.
The downward trend can start its development in a case of the pair movement below the level of 1.3233, after that the arrival on the support level of 1.3131 will happen.
Upward trend can start its development in a case of the pair movement higher the level of 1.3305, after that the arrival on the resistance level of 1.3305 and 1.3393 will happen.

 

[strategist]

Current trend is ascending.
Also Upward trend can start its development in a case of the pair movement higher the level of 1.2895, after that the arrival on the resistance level of 1.3040 will happen.
Supports: 1.2826 and 1.2750
Resistances 1.2895 and 1.3040

 

[strategist]

Today chart
The pair is trading along a downtrend below the “R” trendline as well as below key resistance level 1.2750. The downside momentum will grow stronger in case the market drops below level 1.2685, which will be followed by moving down to level 1.2600. Otherwise, an uptrend may be expected to develop under condition that the pair rises above resistance level 1.2750. If so, the market will be striving to reach resistance 1.2860.

Forecast of the week, 08/23–08/27
The pair is trading along the “a-a+” downtrend. Now it is located below key resistance 1.2750 (the neckline of “head and shoulders” figure from monthly graph), which is in favor of further downtrend development with the downside targets set at support 1.2430 and probably at 1.2300. Intermediate support is found at level 1.2590. An uptrend should not be expected to start unless the pair rises above level 1.2890. If that happens, the market will then get to resistance level 1.3150. The following stronger resistance will be found at mark 1.3305.

 

[strategist]

Current trend is sideways.
Upward trend can start its development in a case of the pair movement higher the level of 1.790, after that the arrival on the resistance level of 1.2890 will happen.
Downtrend can start its development from this levels with target on 1.2655 and in a case of the pair movement lower the level of 1.2655, after that the arrival on the support level of 1.2500 will happen.
Supports: 1.2655, 1.2500
Ressitances: 1.2750, 1.2790, 1.2890