EURUSD....Euro

[Kauri]

just love them short an coilys... they nearly always point to an interesting outcome..

Cheers
..............kauri

According to the Belgian FinMin, Didier Reynders, there are several potential purchasers for ABN AMRO. Talking to Belgian radio the FinMin notes he wants the ABN AMRO sale to take place "as soon as possible". also report that ING is to buy the Dutch assets of ABN owned by Fortis. . .

German banks are now under the microscope, with dealers talking of the "suspension" of various banking stocks. Nothing is yet confirmed but following the problems at Hypo Real Estate Group many will be wary over further credit quake related fallout.
According to the Bundesbank statement emergency funding provided to Germany"s Hypo Real Estate should help the group function adequately. In the joint statement with German financial watchdog, BaFin, it noted "The problems of Hypo Real Estate Group, triggered by distortions in international financial markets, have been solved by a consortium from the German financial sector".

the latest ECB data notes EUR 28Bln deposited at the ECB, with EUR 6.7Bln borrowed. This is a key figure in attributing the problems in the money markets. Institutions would rather lend to the ECB at 2%, than lend into a market plagued with counter party risks

Cheers
............Kauri

 

[IFocus]

German banks are now under the microscope, with dealers talking of the "suspension" of various banking stocks. Nothing is yet confirmed but following the problems at Hypo Real Estate Group many will be wary over further credit quake related fallout.
According to the Bundesbank statement emergency funding provided to Germany"s Hypo Real Estate should help the group function adequately. In the joint statement with German financial watchdog, BaFin, it noted "The problems of Hypo Real Estate Group, triggered by distortions in international financial markets, have been solved by a consortium from the German financial sector".

the latest ECB data notes EUR 28Bln deposited at the ECB, with EUR 6.7Bln borrowed. This is a key figure in attributing the problems in the money markets. Institutions would rather lend to the ECB at 2%, than lend into a market plagued with counter party risks

Cheers
............Kauri

On a roll Kauri.....

 

[Kauri]

On a roll Kauri.....

The fall in the EUR/USD over the past 24 hours was the biggest one-day drop since 1995 and sentiment towards the EUR/USD has turned decidedly bearish. The fall in the EUR/USD accelerated at the quarter-end fix that saw a huge demand for US dollars, which analysts say was due to larger than normal redemption by nervous US investors. This suggests that the US investor "repatriation" theme is at play and is unlikely to dissipate just because the quarter just ended.
The move by Ireland to guarantee depositors and holders of debt to protect their six leading banks as evidence that the problems/stresses in the EZ financial sector have to be dealt with individually/piecemeal. This is due to the lack of a EZ framework to cope with the broader problems, as the US can. Spain will probably follow Irelands lead soon metinks...

Looking for a good spot to rehitch my shorts...

Cheers
...........Kauri

EUR/USD-Web$N-01/10/0801:26OrderSpot FX EUR/USD-System$+ 2 14074- -- Position(s) closed:01/10/08
01:05S&LSpot FX EUR/USD-Web$-2 14318.5 14074N- Stop limit amended: 30/09/0823:59S&LSpot FX EUR/USD-Web$-2 14318.5 14221N- Stop limit amended: 30/09/0823:26S&LSpot FX EUR/USD-Web$-2 14318.5 14260N- Stop limit amended: 30/09/0823:18S&LSpot FX EUR/USD-Web$-2 14318.5 14317N- Stop limit amended: 30/09/0821:05OrderSpot FX EUR/USD-Web$-2 14318.5 14358.5N- Position opened:

 

[Kauri]

Just an idle E/W thought... or five..

Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

The growing bearish sentiment towards the EUR will intensify if and when the US bailout package is passed. There is a view that the Europeans can not get together and agree on an emergency package as the US is able to do and this view has been given credibility this week after the Irish government unilaterally guaranteed depositors and bond holders for six Irish financial institutions on Tuesday and the French and German authorities publicly disagreed on the need for a European rescue package yesterday. There is fury within the EU at the Irish for their move to shore up the Irish banks as it is seen drawing depositors and investors into the Irish banks and away from other banks in Europe at a time when deposit retention is paramount to stability. Who said the Irish weren't smart...
The drama in Europe has reignited "Eurosepticism", which could be extremely EUR-negative in these untried times The US Senate will apparently start voting on the revised rescue package shortly. I'm set.. hopefully on the right side..

Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

Trade triggered... now to see if the Senate passes a solid motion...
Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

An FT article that came out earlier today is lending to the building EUR-bearish case. The article states that the EZ is heading for a deeper recession than the US due to the authorities lacking the flexibility to react to the worsening economic situation in the EZ. The FT says that European business leaders are joining investors in urging the ECB to abandon its focus on inflation and instead concentrate on "staving off a prolonged recession". An unnamed senior EZ policy maker is quoted in the article as saying: "The ECB has to focus on inflation for a whole host of political and historical reasons. But it does mean irony of ironies that the US economy is likely to come out of this quicker than we are. And their all-round flexibility compared with Europe makes that all the more likely too."

Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

Still jittery over possible more bank failures in the Euro region and given the lack of any one supra-national entity to deal with a full-blown banking crisis as is the case in the US. Dealers also note that another hawkish statement from the ECB tonight would be tantamount to Emperor Nero playing the violin whilst Rome burned, unfazed by the current financial market turmoil. Not many expect the ECB to move to cut interest rates tonight but some wording acknowledging the gravity of the credit market situation would go a long way into restoring some measure of confidence in the European banking system. As it stands, the ECB is the only supra-national entity that could coordinate an US- style rescue should it become necessary with national governments bickering over policy in this regard.


Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[IFocus]

Train going south Kauri hope you still have a ticket......

 

[Kauri]

Train going south Kauri hope you still have a ticket......

I'm on the Eurostar... slipping through the chunnell... no reason to get off...
the red line is my stop... still intact..

Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[BentRod]

Thats a clear break of that monthly TL that held so well too.

Be interesting to see where we go now.

I'm still on board from much higher aswell.

 

[IFocus]

Nice work guys

Kauri what time frame is your chart?

 

[Kauri]

Thats a clear break of that monthly TL that held so well too.

Be interesting to see where we go now.

I'm still on board from much higher aswell.

predictably fighting the low from three weeks odd ago... metinks...

Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[BentRod]

predictably fighting the low from three weeks odd ago... metinks...

It might even form a Budgie Man special on 5M....will be watching closely

Ifocus...The first chart was 15M.

 

[IFocus]

Thanks Bentrod my 15min from IB into AB is quite different from Kauri's

Here comes the retest

.

 

[BentRod]

Actually sorry, looks like it was 30m

 

[IFocus]

30 min


.

 

[Kauri]

Long-term trend support gives out at 1.3925 as early European action adds weight to the "Sell EUR" mentality. The U.S are seen edging closer to large scale financial assistance but Europe is experiencing in-fighting (German- French) or critizing those (Irish) who try and take a proactive stance towards the credit crisis.
At present it is open season on the EUR with the crosses (even EUR/GBP) lower and spot crashing through stops at 1.3950 and looking at larger selling interest under 1.3900. Europe needs a cohesive stance toward the ills that are plaguing the financial markets and as has been the case in the past dragging one"s feet will ultimately be punished by events and the markets. The ECB meets today any hint of hawkishness will get stamped upon by the market.
139 oppie barriers in play... I'm out at the moment... will look to reload later if Tricky Trichie plays...

Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[IFocus]

Aahhh keep clicking box's etc and got a similar chart 30 min it is


.

 

[Kauri]

Nice work guys

Kauri what time frame is your chart?

1800 secs...

Cheers
............Kauri