One of the best articles on what's wrong with china's plan that I've seen to date....
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/China-is-losing-the-new-Cold-War
Sorry but it's quite bad. He's wrong on a lot of things, first of which is history of why the Soviet collapsed.
Well... that's according to historians I've heard from various docu and interviews... and a bit about other lectures I've seen about imperial this and that.
I thought the Soviets collapsed becuase of its arms race with the US/Reagan too. But a few US historians have said that the Soviet knew the moment the arms race started that it's a joke they shouldn't follow.
The Soviet leadership even brought back from Siberia a couple intellectual to hear their point regarding the arms race. They said that even if the US managed to build that Star Wars system, it could easily be overcome by firing massive barrage at a target or two. Problem solved.
I think it was the late prof Wolin [?] in an interview with Chris Hedges saying that when Gorbachev release the locked archived of Soviet adventures overseas, the peasants were seriously horrified and demand an end of the spreading of "socialism" abroad.
I'm sure that's oversiplifying it but yea, weren't due to them going broke because of Socialism or the arms race. Too much corruption, cronyism and imperial over-reach... on top of an angry mob; the forfeiting of East Germany to be united with a promise (taht weren't kept) from Bush Senior to not have Germany become a member of NATO nor move NATO "one inch to the East". They're now at the border.
The thing is, if you take Mr. Pei's thesis for the collapse of empire, it would more appropriately apply to the American one than the Chinese one.
For one, China's military, according to Pei, spend some $275B - i.e. a lot more than the official $125B or so... That's a lot for sure. But compare that to the American $726B this current budget.
That $726B doesn't include the black-ops, the nukes renewal programmes; the space force; the veteran affairs etc. If it's all include, the US taxpayers is looking at at least $1Trillion a year.
While that might be peanuts if the yank can keep paying it with their printed money. But given their debt level, the paper money backed by American prestige... What were to happen if no body around the world buy the greenbacks as a currency reserve; or oil no longer trade in US dollars?
As to the Belt and Road Initiatives... Pei's analysis is pretty shallow. And that's coming from me, who watches YouTube.
You just do not count investment of such scale in terms of dollars and cents. If you do, you do not count the return within the same year or construction cycle period.
Imagine the efficiency gains; the reduction in air pollution, fuel reduction etc. from high speed rail; freeways; roads and bridges, tunnels. And that's just domestically.
Internationally... as some founder of modern-day political scientist pointed out back in 1900s - McKinder? - Those who manage to control Euro-Asia, controls the world.
That while control of sea ports and trade routes are important... most of the world's population are located on the Euro-Asian landmass. It's one continent. Separated by a massive desert between Europe and Asia... but it's a single landmass.
Han China managed to equal or superceded imperial Rome from a dusty old Silk Road to the West.
China's rails and roads linking it with S/E Asia, with the Middle East, Russia, Eastern Europe, into Europe... That's having the world by the nuts.
Then there's its ambition in the seas... connecting a trade/military maritime route into Africa.
Most important, I think, is that most of the places China is working in... Africa, the Pacific and other small nations... They have all experience Western/American imperialism. They haven't seen the Chinese flavour yet.
So Chinese "diplomats" and friendly faces might be more believable than a White one. That and since the other guy have been using the bombs to keep the peace... China is forced to be more diplomatic, more generous. That's how you let people in to take your stuff.