Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Electric cars?

Would you buy an electric car?

  • Already own one

    Votes: 10 5.1%

  • Yes - would definitely buy

    Votes: 43 21.8%

  • Yes - preferred over petrol car if price/power/convenience similar

    Votes: 78 39.6%

  • Maybe - preference for neither, only concerned with costs etc

    Votes: 37 18.8%

  • No - prefer petrol car even if electric car has same price, power and convenience

    Votes: 25 12.7%

  • No - would never buy one

    Votes: 14 7.1%
  • Total voters
    197
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rederob said:
Aside from your references to KPMG and the IEA, here are the areas you fall down:
  1. Off-peak charging is unlikely to be a problem for years to come
  2. Daytime charging is currently happening and @Value Collector demonstrates how
  3. AEMO's ISP shows pathways to increased capacity - you seem oblivious to this
  4. It is improbable that the uptick in EV ownership over time will come as a surprise so network operators will have years to adapt
  5. KPMG's assumptions cannot be regarded as definitive future events
  6. You were unaware that AEMO has reported on EV penetration and has it under regular review, rendering your subsequent ideas on "planning" poorly based
  7. You are unaware of how quickly capacity can be added to the grid
  8. Your points on CST, offshore wind and batteries were barely relevant
  9. Your thoughts on regulating EV take-up were not substantiated
  10. Your ideas about taxes are not in keeping with industry preferences and did not reflect a "user pays" principle
I have challenged you on your understanding of the above, and your responses are not enlightening.
Click to expand...

I haven't fallen down at all. The KPMG report is clear: ~50% increase in electrical consumption and ~120% in installed capacity for a 100% EV uptake. The IEA report is clear: 640TWh of global electrical consumption under their NPS scenario and 1110TWh of global electrical consumption under their EV30@30 scenario. I don't think that you understand these figures.

1. You said that you don't work on guesses and you're just guessing.

2. Value Collector has a great hobby with his Tesla and with solar panels.

3. I want to see a full working report on EV uptake scenarios in Australia.

4. Nothing wrong with forward planning.

5. No they can't, however they are an indicator.

6. AMEO better have it under control. However incompetence often leads to promotion in government agencies.

7. I am not unaware at all. Onshore wind and roof-top solar can be added quickly. Offshore wind and CST aren't as cheap or as easy to add capacity into the grid.

8. They are completely relevant. You just like making guesses.

9. EV regulation will happen in my opinion. You might not think so.

10. The government are not going to just let their fuel taxes vanish. They will tax EVs to plug the government revenue shortfall. Again, you might not think so.

I have posted the reports, make of them or interpret them as you wish. You are not challenging me, you are challenging the reports. If you can't understand them, well I am sorry. You need to start educating yourself.
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
I presume that more handy people than I could drop a Tesla battery in to the Arnage and modify it as the bloke did in the video above that @basilio posted. It was a bloody Range Rover, so I guess it's possible.

I love my Arnage.

gg
Click to expand...

Yep, there is actually a market for Tesla's batteries after cars get written off after accidents etc.

Check out this video of these guys pulling out the Battery modules out of a Tesla Model S battery pack.

(when the guy in the Range Rover video said the Range Rover a 8 Tesla batteries under the hood, he meant 8 of the battery modules, not 8 whole Tesla battery packs)

 
over9k said:
Nope, I actually agree with what they're saying if we assume that their conditions hold - I would have said it long before you posted the report if you'd asked.

You do not understand what the reports are actually saying, which is what I have been trying to explain to you the whole time:

The reports don't say what you think they do. I'm not saying that what the report says is wrong, I'm saying that what you think it says is wrong.

Yep, we're all wrong and you're right.




Lol



Once again: The report doesn't say what you think it does. Their calculations are accurate. Their assumptions are not. You clearly do not understand the distinction.



More lol.



Let me ask this again chronos: Tell me exactly what you think the report says and why it says it.
Click to expand...


Not sure if English is your first language. What do you think a 50% increase in electrical consumption and a 120% increase in installed capacity means?

I think you don't understand the reports and you need to educate yourself so that you can understand the reports.
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
I presume that more handy people than I could drop a Tesla battery in to the Arnage and modify it as the bloke did in the video above that @basilio posted. It was a bloody Range Rover, so I guess it's possible.

I love my Arnage.

gg
Click to expand...
I am reliably informed by @qldfrog that this shows @Smurf1976 converting his Phantom (not the comic character):


(I believe there are subtitles for Victorians.)
 
over9k said:
Nope, I actually agree with what they're saying if we assume that their conditions hold - I would have said it long before you posted the report if you'd asked.

You do not understand what the reports are actually saying, which is what I have been trying to explain to you the whole time:

The reports don't say what you think they do. I'm not saying that what the report says is wrong, I'm saying that what you think it says is wrong.

Yep, we're all wrong and you're right.




Lol



Once again: The report doesn't say what you think it does. Their calculations are accurate. Their assumptions are not. You clearly do not understand the distinction.



More lol.



Let me ask this again chronos: Tell me exactly what you think the report says and why it says it.
Click to expand...


The IEA report is clear: 640TWh of global electrical consumption under their NPS scenario and 1110TWh of global electrical consumption under their EV30@30 scenario.

1110TWh of electrical consumption? That is more than 4 times Australia's entire yearly electrical consumption, just for 30% EVs, globally, in the year 2030!

And you are claiming that off-peak will be able to fill the electrical consumption gap. You have no idea.

Here is an excerpt from the IEA report: "Electricity demand projected in both scenarios suggests that EVs are going to be much more relevant for power systems than they have been in the past. With uncontrolled charging, EVs could drive incremental needs for peak power generation and transmission capacity. Understanding the extent to which power systems can be impacted depends on total annual electricity demand EVs, the impact of daily charging patterns on load profiles, location power levels used for charging."

(https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2019)

Do you understand what this means?

I really think that you just don't understand the content of the reports.
 
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rederob said:
I am reliably informed by @qldfrog that this shows @Smurf1976 converting his Phantom (not the comic character):


(I believe there are subtitles for Victorians.)
Click to expand...

That is incredible. Well not incredible really. It works.

It's sustainable and do-able. A good industry for Australia.

I'll look in to it as soon as I get a handle on the Cloud and the associated ASX listed companies to see where the gulls are flying to next on my charts. Townsville would be well suited for recharging.

Thanks @rederob

gg
 
Chronos-Plutus said:
I haven't fallen down at all. The KPMG report is clear: ~50% increase in electrical consumption and ~120% in installed capacity for a 100% EV uptake. The IEA report is clear: 640TWh of global electrical consumption under their NPS scenario and 1110TWh of global electrical consumption under their EV30@30 scenario. I don't think that you understand these figures.

1. You said that you don't work on guesses and you're just guessing.

2. Value Collector has a great hobby with his Tesla and with solar panels.

3. I want to see a full working report on EV uptake scenarios in Australia.

4. Nothing wrong with forward planning.

5. No they can't, however they are an indicator.

6. AMEO better have it under control. However incompetence often leads to promotion in government agencies.

7. I am not unaware at all. Onshore wind and roof-top solar can be added quickly. Offshore wind and CST aren't as cheap or as easy to add capacity into the grid.

8. They are completely relevant. You just like making guesses.

9. EV regulation will happen in my opinion. You might not think so.

10. The government are not going to just let their fuel taxes vanish. They will tax EVs to plug the government revenue shortfall. Again, you might not think so.

I have posted the reports, make of them or interpret them as you wish. You are not challenging me, you are challenging the reports. If you can't understand them, well I am sorry. You need to start educating yourself.
Click to expand...

Once again I will point out that KPMG’s numbers are for the year 2046, your numbers were based on today.

——————

however more importantly let me point out how ridiculous your original calculation was.

you simply converted the BTU’s in gasoline to the BTU’s in Electricity.

however This means that 1 gallon Of gasoline is equal to 36.34 KWH of electricity.

My car can go nearly 300km of 36KWH, where as the average petrol car will on do 40km on a gallon.

——————

So you were essentially saying EV’s will use 90 KWH / 100km instead of only 12 KWH.

So your calculation means we need 7.5 times more electricity than we actually would need in reality to replace gasoline, that is why we were saying you were wrong.

12 KWH per 100,..... not 90 KWH as you claimed. Your calculation wasn’t rough, it was wrong by a factor of 7.5, not to mention you didn’t allow at all for utilization Of off-peak or incremental growth over time as EV’s slowly phase in.

81DA3523-B82A-4D50-927A-A23546B942F5.jpeg

 
Value Collector said:
Once again I will point out that KPMG’s numbers are for the year 2046, your numbers were based on today.

——————

however more importantly let me point out how ridiculous your original calculation was.

you simply converted the BTU’s in gasoline to the BTU’s in Electricity.

however This means that 1 gallon Of gasoline is equal to 36.34 KWH of electricity.

My car can go nearly 300km of 36KWH, where as the average petrol car will on do 40km on a gallon.

——————

So you were essentially saying EV’s will use 90 KWH / 100km instead of only 12 KWH.

So your calculation means we need 7.5 times more electricity than we actually would need in reality to replace gasoline, that is why we were saying you were wrong.

12 KWH per 100,..... not 90 KWH as you claimed. Your calculation wasn’t rough, it was wrong by a factor of 7.5, not to mention you didn’t allow at all for utilization Of off-peak or incremental growth over time as EV’s slowly phase in.

View attachment 106193
Click to expand...

By the year 2046, populations will grow. If anything, more cars will be on the road.


Don't worry about my rough and quick numbers, it was a way to see what was the amount of energy involved, impact on energy markets, in the transition within minutes.

Look at the IEA report for their electrical consumption scenario of EV30@30. 1110TWh of global electrical consumption, for 30% EVs, by the year 2030.

Maybe ask Smurf if 1110TWh of electrical consumption is nothing.
 
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Value Collector said:
Yep, there is actually a market for Tesla's batteries after cars get written off after accidents etc.

Check out this video of these guys pulling out the Battery modules out of a Tesla Model S battery pack.

(when the guy in the Range Rover video said the Range Rover a 8 Tesla batteries under the hood, he meant 8 of the battery modules, not 8 whole Tesla battery packs)

Click to expand...

I'll run all this past a few mates who are "handy". I'm more cerebral.

It certainly looks do-able. thanks for your reply @Value Collector

I nearly missed your post for all the electric poles in the way of this discussion on Electric Cars.

gg
 
Chronos-Plutus said:
By the year 2046, populations will grow. If anything, more cars will be on the road.
Click to expand...

Exactly, finally you understand.

Part of the reason KPMG is saying that by 2046 there will need to be additional capacity is because of population growth, not just more cars but all more Air cons, Heaters, toasters, hot water systems and TV's.

And, this population needs more infrastructure regardless, even if we stay 100% committed to Petrol and diesel, we would need more upgrades refineries and import terminals, more petrol stations, more tanker trucks, more pipelines, more underground tanks etc etc etc.

Don't worry about my rough and quick numbers, it was a way to see what was the amount of energy involved,
Click to expand...

Thats what we were pointing out, you massively over estimated.

and then tried to claim KPMG agreed which they didn't, because their numbers are for 2046, and as I said include growth in all electrical usage, which would need to be catered for either way, and growth in total cars that need to be catered for (even if the growth was in petrol cars)
 
Value Collector said:
Exactly, finally you understand.

Part of the reason KPMG is saying that by 2046 there will need to be additional capacity is because of population growth, not just more cars but all more Air cons, Heaters, toasters, hot water systems and TV's.

And, this population needs more infrastructure regardless, even if we stay 100% committed to Petrol and diesel, we would need more upgrades refineries and import terminals, more petrol stations, more tanker trucks, more pipelines, more underground tanks etc etc etc.



Thats what we were pointing out, you massively over estimated.

and then tried to claim KPMG agreed which they didn't, because their numbers are for 2046, and as I said include growth in all electrical usage, which would need to be catered for either way, and growth in total cars that need to be catered for (even if the growth was in petrol cars)
Click to expand...

Irrespective of the very rough overnight numbers, which were never intended to be precise; if we phased out our crude oil economy infrastructure and electrified our transportation sector; it will take us well past mid century and dramatically slow the EV uptake; if we pegged EV uptake with the lifecycle of crude oil infrastructure. However there is still an enormous amount of additional electrical capacity that will be required.

Whatever our disagreements may be here; perhaps we can agree that our government must start building robust policy to address the electrical consumption needs for EVs; as stated in the staggering IEA report figures for EV electrical consumption requirements.
 
Chronos-Plutus said:
it will take us to the end of the century and dramatically slow the EV uptake; if we pegged EV uptake with the lifecycle of crude oil infrastructure.
Click to expand...

I don't agree, things can happen super fast when people with capital decide to act fast.

I mean Tesla Built, shipped and installed the big battery in SA under 100 days.
The Solar thats installed on My roof that covers 100% of my needs was installed in 1.5 days.
Gas generation can be installed in a few months.

Things can happen super fast, but it will only get done incrementally as demand slowly grows. no one is going to build the capacity until they believe that capacity will create revenue.

------------
The other important thing you don't really comprehend is that just as the users buying petrol have funded the growth in the oil industry, so to will all the paying customers buying electricity.

There is plenty of capital out there looking for home where it can earn 8% - 10% returns, energy infrastructure underwritten by high demand and high utilisation rates, is a great investment, money will flow into the sector as it grows.
 
Chronos-Plutus said:
Not sure if English is your first language
Click to expand...

Trolling again and still not funny???

Chronos-Plutus said:
Whatever our disagreements may be here; perhaps we can agree that our government must start building robust policy to address the electrical consumption needs for EVs
Click to expand...

How kind of you to generously offer an olive branch.......finally you have posted something that made me laugh :roflmao::roflmao::roflmao:
 
rederob said:
It's a bit less than China consumes in 2 months.
So it's something, but not a lot given that it's 10 years away.
Click to expand...
Put another way, between 2018 and 2019 China added enough capacity to meet an additional 570TWh.
So by 2030 China alone has the ability to meet 5 times the IEA forecast for EV demand.
@Chronos-Plutus has turned a molehill into a mountain.
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
Thanks @basilio .

It's a wonderful motor.

Too many power poles again.

gg
Click to expand...

In the interests on putting up some content for the "Car guys" among us.

Here is a video of a drag race between a road legal Tesla Model S and the $1 Million+ Super cheap auto V8 super car.

(it drags two cars, one road legal and one super car)

 
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