Electric cars?

[rederob]

Personal attacks once again all because I don't agree with you. This is the reason that the discussion and debate gets detailed.

I don't think you fully grasp and understand the scale and magnitude of this issue at hand. I am not upset that you are struggling either because I can't expect too much of you.
I have found credible reports and I can speak to many engineers, scientists and various professionals to get their opinion.

I don't need to subscribe to your opinion, because your opinion means very little me.

I have challenged your understanding of the energy systems in place and planned.
You seem unaware of where things stand, what is taking place, and what is known to be necessary.
I have "attacked" you knowledge. It's well behind that of many posters here.
As a result, it reflects on you ability to understand why your commentary is not valued.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

I have challenged your understanding of the energy systems in place and planned.
You seem unaware of where things stand, what is taking place, and what is known to be necessary.
I have "attacked" you knowledge. It's well behind that of many posters here.
As a result, it reflects on you ability to understand why your commentary is not valued.

You haven't challenged anything. You have just trolled and made personal attacks. Really it is just pathetic.

I don't need to prove anything to you. You are a nobody to me. I haven't canvassed my energy knowledge on here at all, because it would be a waste of time as you are incapable of understanding it. Yeah; I am going to start posting electrical schematics and mechanical diagrams on here after all this; wake up to yourself.

The reports from KPMG and the IEA speak for themselves. If you have a problem with them, that is your problem.

 

[fiftyeight]

You haven't challenged anything. You have just trolled and made personal attacks. Really it is just pathetic.

HAHAHAHA

@Chronos-Plutus if you are going to troll and trash a good thread, can you please at least attempt to be funny?

I don't know why you bother mate.

This where the 'Ignore' feature does not work.

You can ignore someone, but then you lose context of what is being said by others. The only answer seems to be if everyone stops taking the bait.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

HAHAHAHA

@Chronos-Plutus if you are going to troll and trash a good thread, can you please at least attempt to be funny?



This where the 'Ignore' feature does not work.

You can ignore someone, but then you lose context of what is being said by others. The only answer seems to be if everyone stops taking the bait.

Why don't you go do something productive with your night, like analysing the stock VMT on the ASX, rather than being a pest.

I intend to enjoy my Saturday night now, and you are not invited, HAHA.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I'm going to run out of popcorn and Panadol if this keeps up.

gg

 

[rederob]

I'm going to run out of popcorn and Panadol if this keeps up.

gg

When did you run of Bex?

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

I'm going to run out of popcorn and Panadol if this keeps up.

gg

I was told about VMT a while ago; I am way ahead of these guys.

Last post for tonight now.

 

[rederob]

Aside from your references to KPMG and the IEA, here are the areas you fall down:

1. Off-peak charging is unlikely to be a problem for years to come
2. Daytime charging is currently happening and @Value Collector demonstrates how
3. AEMO's ISP shows pathways to increased capacity - you seem oblivious to this
4. It is improbable that the uptick in EV ownership over time will come as a surprise so network operators will have years to adapt
5. KPMG's assumptions cannot be regarded as definitive future events
6. You were unaware that AEMO has reported on EV penetration and has it under regular review, rendering your subsequent ideas on "planning" poorly based
7. You are unaware of how quickly capacity can be added to the grid
8. Your points on CST, offshore wind and batteries were barely relevant
9. Your thoughts on regulating EV take-up were not substantiated
10. Your ideas about taxes are not in keeping with industry preferences and did not reflect a "user pays" principle

I have challenged you on your understanding of the above, and your responses are not enlightening.

 

[over9k]

On contrary, you are disregarding people who are trained to do the calculations who actually compile the reports.

You are telling me that we won't to worry about the additional electrical consumption and that the grid can handle. Yeah right, you keep believing that.

Time for you to be put on performance review.

Nope, I actually agree with what they're saying if we assume that their conditions hold - I would have said it long before you posted the report if you'd asked.

You do not understand what the reports are actually saying, which is what I have been trying to explain to you the whole time:

The reports don't say what you think they do. I'm not saying that what the report says is wrong, I'm saying that what you think it says is wrong.

So now we have personal attacks because people have been showcased as not having a clue about the increase in electrical consumption.

Yep, we're all wrong and you're right.

Over9k said it. He reckons that we can just charge the vehicles in off-peak and it will be fine.

That's presently the case. And it will be the case for quite a few years to come, even when load shedding events prevail due to excessive daytime temperatures overloading the system.
Right now it would be great if thousands more EVs were around so that wind curtailment wasn't necessary.
And that's aside from how solar PV curtailment is necessary as more capacity is added and the daytime load is not there.

Lol

I think I would be listening to experts who actually produce the reports that I have presented, people who put their real name to their work.

Many who post here have either claimed that the electrical consumption isn't anything to be concerned about or that it will be fine as the vehicles can recharge in off-peak.

Clearly not the case, much policy requires urgent attention for electric vehicles in Australia.

Once again: The report doesn't say what you think it does. Their calculations are accurate. Their assumptions are not. You clearly do not understand the distinction.

Aside from your references to KPMG and the IEA, here are the areas you fall down:

1. Off-peak charging is unlikely to be a problem for years to come
2. Daytime charging is currently happening and @Value Collector demonstrates how
3. AEMO's ISP shows pathways to increased capacity - you seem oblivious to this
4. It is improbable that the uptick in EV ownership over time will come as a surprise so network operators will have years to adapt
5. KPMG's assumptions cannot be regarded as definitive future events
6. You were unaware that AEMO has reported on EV penetration and has it under regular review, rendering your subsequent ideas on "planning" poorly based
7. You are unaware of how quickly capacity can be added to the grid
8. Your points on CST, offshore wind and batteries were barely relevant
9. Your thoughts on regulating EV take-up were not substantiated
10. Your ideas about taxes are not in keeping with industry preferences and did not reflect a "user pays" principle

I have challenged you on your understanding of the above, and your responses are not enlightening.

More lol.



Let me ask this again chronos: Tell me exactly what you think the report says and why it says it.

 

[Smurf1976]

This seems to be quite a change from a few months ago when the system was apparently on a knife edge and blackouts (sorry load shedding) were on the cards.

Has anything new been installed, have repairs to out of order generators been completed, or has covid squashed demand ?

A few issues there.

Yes there have been repairs done to the two generating units in Victoria which experienced major failures last year and lead to considerable concern. In both cases those were major repairs taking circa 6 months following significant incidents.

The other factor is that there's considerable variation in consumption both seasonally and throughout the day. In Victoria's case the maximum demand ever recorded exceeds 10,000 MW but right now it's sitting on about 5700 and last night it dropped down to about 4500. So time of day makes a big difference but also there are seasonal issues.

Queensland peaks in Summer. Tasmania peaks in Winter. Obvious climatic reasons in both cases noting that the majority of space heating in Tas is electric (unlike say Victoria where gas heating is dominant).

NSW, Vic, SA have their absolute peak on hot days in summer but an average day in winter sees higher demand than an average non-heatwave day in summer. So winter's a more relentless grind but it's summer that sees the extremes and it's those extremes in summer which lead to most concerns about supply.

So there's still a lot of concern about supply reliability during heatwaves etc, we could well see load shedding over the coming summers on extreme days indeed I'll go as far as saying it's likely to happen at some point, but that's an issue only at the actual peaks.

Even on a day when demand reaches extreme levels, there's still a surplus of supply just a few hours either side of that. Come back at midnight the same day and some generating plant will be completely shut down as simply not required.

As a more familiar analogy, road traffic. A city can be heavily congested at 6pm but the streets may be practically empty just two or three hours later and you'd be waiting a while to find even one car on the road at 3am.

So whether it's electricity or roads, you can certainly put more volume through the existing infrastructure just so long as you're not doing it at the peaks. Transporting a heavy load through the city or charging EV's at night isn't a concern, doing it at midday in either case wouldn't cause much of a worry either, but adding more traffic to the roads or more load to the power grid at ~6pm is best avoided.

Some charts show it pretty well:

Past 12 months daily data for Victoria and SA. Note the spikes on a few days in summer - that's what causes most of the concern. The pattern is much the same for NSW in particular.

Black = coal
Orange = gas
Blue = hydro
Green = wind
Yellow = solar
Purple = import from other states
Below the zero line = export to other states




For the December spike in SA, Adelaide recorded maximum temperatures of 43.7, 45.3 and 43.9 on those three consecutive days (BOM data). For the Victorian spike in January, Melbourne recorded 42.9 degrees on 31 January.

That said, even on an extreme day demand only hits that maximum for a relatively brief period. Looking at the past week, and noting that a broadly similar pattern occurs throughout the year, there are always periods when demand is relatively low:







So just over the last 7 days we see the overall supply and demand situation constantly changing and varying quite dramatically. There are times when a lot of load could be added without an issue, other times when the capacity is more stretched. Tasmania in particular is somewhat a "shock absorber" for the other states - largely because with a couple of exceptions the hydro stations are extremely easy to start up and shut down.

So it can all be made to work and there's no need to build anything if charging is done using a "smart" approach which avoids adding load to the existing peak around 6pm.

Of course, if consumers do want to charge at that time then it's doable, it's just a matter of building infrastructure but obviously that does cost money but as with anything it can be built.

It's a couple of years old but still relevant and there's a lot of scenarios and information in this report for those interested:

https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/e...final---aemo-ev-insights---september-2017.pdf

 

[qldfrog]

So does that extra get diverted to hot water heating at that time ?

That extra will at best be used for water heating IF you have an intelligent power system collected.
Most people do not and you end up warming the air via a huge resistor.
Anyone about global warming?
So the real usefulness of a grid able to actually consume as much as we can throw at it

 

[qldfrog]

A few issues there.

Yes there have been repairs done to the two generating units in Victoria which experienced major failures last year and lead to considerable concern. In both cases those were major repairs taking circa 6 months following significant incidents.

The other factor is that there's considerable variation in consumption both seasonally and throughout the day. In Victoria's case the maximum demand ever recorded exceeds 10,000 MW but right now it's sitting on about 5700 and last night it dropped down to about 4500. So time of day makes a big difference but also there are seasonal issues.

Queensland peaks in Summer. Tasmania peaks in Winter. Obvious climatic reasons in both cases noting that the majority of space heating in Tas is electric (unlike say Victoria where gas heating is dominant).

NSW, Vic, SA have their absolute peak on hot days in summer but an average day in winter sees higher demand than an average non-heatwave day in summer. So winter's a more relentless grind but it's summer that sees the extremes and it's those extremes in summer which lead to most concerns about supply.

So there's still a lot of concern about supply reliability during heatwaves etc, we could well see load shedding over the coming summers on extreme days indeed I'll go as far as saying it's likely to happen at some point, but that's an issue only at the actual peaks.

Even on a day when demand reaches extreme levels, there's still a surplus of supply just a few hours either side of that. Come back at midnight the same day and some generating plant will be completely shut down as simply not required.

As a more familiar analogy, road traffic. A city can be heavily congested at 6pm but the streets may be practically empty just two or three hours later and you'd be waiting a while to find even one car on the road at 3am.

So whether it's electricity or roads, you can certainly put more volume through the existing infrastructure just so long as you're not doing it at the peaks. Transporting a heavy load through the city or charging EV's at night isn't a concern, doing it at midday in either case wouldn't cause much of a worry either, but adding more traffic to the roads or more load to the power grid at ~6pm is best avoided.

Some charts show it pretty well:

Past 12 months daily data for Victoria and SA. Note the spikes on a few days in summer - that's what causes most of the concern. The pattern is much the same for NSW in particular.

Black = coal
Orange = gas
Blue = hydro
Green = wind
Yellow = solar
Purple = import from other states
Below the zero line = export to other states

View attachment 106160
View attachment 106161

For the December spike in SA, Adelaide recorded maximum temperatures of 43.7, 45.3 and 43.9 on those three consecutive days (BOM data). For the Victorian spike in January, Melbourne recorded 42.9 degrees on 31 January.

That said, even on an extreme day demand only hits that maximum for a relatively brief period. Looking at the past week, and noting that a broadly similar pattern occurs throughout the year, there are always periods when demand is relatively low:

View attachment 106162

View attachment 106163

View attachment 106164

So just over the last 7 days we see the overall supply and demand situation constantly changing and varying quite dramatically. There are times when a lot of load could be added without an issue, other times when the capacity is more stretched. Tasmania in particular is somewhat a "shock absorber" for the other states - largely because with a couple of exceptions the hydro stations are extremely easy to start up and shut down.

So it can all be made to work and there's no need to build anything if charging is done using a "smart" approach which avoids adding load to the existing peak around 6pm.

Of course, if consumers do want to charge at that time then it's doable, it's just a matter of building infrastructure but obviously that does cost money but as with anything it can be built.

It's a couple of years old but still relevant and there's a lot of scenarios and information in this report for those interested:

https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/e...final---aemo-ev-insights---september-2017.pdf

Can i suggest you might take an approach here which is too macro focused?
My street/road is 10km long, mostly rural residential, some solar panels,pool pumps, no industry on that street and in Qld so no industrial power use of worth overall.
Based on 25kwh per 100km ev, which I'm sure you can agree if you have been able to read my posts and link among the deluge :-(
A house like mine will double to tripple its consumption, as will all household along the street if moving to ev
Charging will happen between 6pm and 6am unless there are recharging at train stations car parks..good luck
I can not see how that can be doable when recharges take 8h or so without some major expenses.
It is not a deal breaker and do not require much more power stations if done properly but i have the feeling that most distribution networks will be in trouble for the last miles.they were not built for that.look at our endless suburbs.
Hard to predict in our current reset time.
If universal income is coming, well easy most EVs will be parked at home at lunchtime and could be part of the solution, same if EVs are mostly owned by rich retirees.
But let's not only judge at the macro view..
It is a shame that debate was highjacked with such virulence as the few good points were lost in the flood..and now ignore makes it hard especially for a right extremist like me lol..FB: please note i am not

When ignoring both our usual rabid leftist culprits and others:
the suppression idea is not oerfect

 

[Value Collector]

That extra will at best be used for water heating IF you have an intelligent power system collected.
Most people do not and you end up warming the air via a huge resistor.
Anyone about global warming?
So the real usefulness of a grid able to actually consume as much as we can throw at it

Yep, when it comes time to replace the hot system I will get a smart hotwater system, in the mean time I am just relying on a dumb timer.

But yeah as the grid improves over time it should be better suited to moving and trading power around cities rather than having to idle back production.

A Tesla battery would totally solve my problem, but since I am moving soon it’s not worth it, and my car and hotwater system timing gets me 90% of the way there anyway.

 

[Value Collector]

Based on 25kwh per 100km ev,

That is a pretty high number, my car has averaged 12kwh per 100km over the last 50km I have driven, and the rated average 15kwh.

sure some larger vehicles might use 25kwh but mine doesn’t.

 

[SirRumpole]

A few issues there.

Thanks for that Smurf, great post.

Can you give us an idea of what the overall demand has been during the covid months compared to the same time last year ?

 

[basilio]

I question the figure of 25Kwhrs per 100 klms for EVs as well. VCs contribution from personal experience adds another POV.

Has anyone seen an authoritative table which indicates estimated power usage of the various EV's on the market ?

---------------------------
Currently looking at quotes to electrify the Caddie. Seems to be sufficient boot space for the batteries ..

 

[basilio]

This is a current review of EV's and their potential effect on the energy market.

ISSUES PAPER
2020 RETAIL ENERGY COMPETITION REVIEW: ELECTRIC VEHICLES

Feb 2020
https://www.aemc.gov.au/sites/defau...review_-_electric_vehicles_-_issues_paper.pdf

 

[Value Collector]

I question the figure of 25Kwhrs per 100 klms for EVs as well. VCs contribution from personal experience adds another POV.

Has anyone seen an authoritative table which indicates estimated power usage of the various EV's on the market ?

---------------------------
Currently looking at quotes to electrify the Caddie. Seems to be sufficient boot space for the batteries ..

What is interesting is my car can maintain about 12 KWH per hundred regardless of terrain, even going over a mountain.

you can see in this chart that usage went up to Nearly 60 KWH / 100km going up the mountain, but due to regen braking recharging the battery on the way down the average was still only slightly above the 12 KWH mark.

the green in the chart is the battery recharging as we travel down hill.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Just to get back on topic. ELECTRIC CARS

Those interested in electricity poles should start their own thread.

Is it possible to do the equivalent of "burnouts" and "wheelies" in an electric car?

A comparison in making my point would be a motor car thread segueing in to a discussion on drilling for oil.

gg

 

[SirRumpole]

Is it possible to do the equivalent of "burnouts" and "wheelies" in an electric car?

Absolutely, the torque generated by an electric motor is enormous. The charge might only last 5 minutes if you do that but you can shred tyres all you want.