I have challenged your understanding of the energy systems in place and planned.Personal attacks once again all because I don't agree with you. This is the reason that the discussion and debate gets detailed.
I don't think you fully grasp and understand the scale and magnitude of this issue at hand. I am not upset that you are struggling either because I can't expect too much of you.
I have found credible reports and I can speak to many engineers, scientists and various professionals to get their opinion.
I don't need to subscribe to your opinion, because your opinion means very little me.
I have challenged your understanding of the energy systems in place and planned.
You seem unaware of where things stand, what is taking place, and what is known to be necessary.
I have "attacked" you knowledge. It's well behind that of many posters here.
As a result, it reflects on you ability to understand why your commentary is not valued.
You haven't challenged anything. You have just trolled and made personal attacks. Really it is just pathetic.
I don't know why you bother mate.
Why don't you go do something productive with your night, like analysing the stock VMT on the ASX, rather than being a pest.HAHAHAHA
@Chronos-Plutus if you are going to troll and trash a good thread, can you please at least attempt to be funny?
This where the 'Ignore' feature does not work.
You can ignore someone, but then you lose context of what is being said by others. The only answer seems to be if everyone stops taking the bait.
When did you run of Bex?I'm going to run out of popcorn and Panadol if this keeps up.
gg
I'm going to run out of popcorn and Panadol if this keeps up.
gg
Nope, I actually agree with what they're saying if we assume that their conditions hold - I would have said it long before you posted the report if you'd asked.On contrary, you are disregarding people who are trained to do the calculations who actually compile the reports.
You are telling me that we won't to worry about the additional electrical consumption and that the grid can handle. Yeah right, you keep believing that.
Time for you to be put on performance review.
Yep, we're all wrong and you're right.So now we have personal attacks because people have been showcased as not having a clue about the increase in electrical consumption.
Over9k said it. He reckons that we can just charge the vehicles in off-peak and it will be fine.
That's presently the case. And it will be the case for quite a few years to come, even when load shedding events prevail due to excessive daytime temperatures overloading the system.
Right now it would be great if thousands more EVs were around so that wind curtailment wasn't necessary.
And that's aside from how solar PV curtailment is necessary as more capacity is added and the daytime load is not there.
I think I would be listening to experts who actually produce the reports that I have presented, people who put their real name to their work.
Many who post here have either claimed that the electrical consumption isn't anything to be concerned about or that it will be fine as the vehicles can recharge in off-peak.
Clearly not the case, much policy requires urgent attention for electric vehicles in Australia.
Aside from your references to KPMG and the IEA, here are the areas you fall down:
I have challenged you on your understanding of the above, and your responses are not enlightening.
- Off-peak charging is unlikely to be a problem for years to come
- Daytime charging is currently happening and @Value Collector demonstrates how
- AEMO's ISP shows pathways to increased capacity - you seem oblivious to this
- It is improbable that the uptick in EV ownership over time will come as a surprise so network operators will have years to adapt
- KPMG's assumptions cannot be regarded as definitive future events
- You were unaware that AEMO has reported on EV penetration and has it under regular review, rendering your subsequent ideas on "planning" poorly based
- You are unaware of how quickly capacity can be added to the grid
- Your points on CST, offshore wind and batteries were barely relevant
- Your thoughts on regulating EV take-up were not substantiated
- Your ideas about taxes are not in keeping with industry preferences and did not reflect a "user pays" principle
This seems to be quite a change from a few months ago when the system was apparently on a knife edge and blackouts (sorry load shedding) were on the cards.
Has anything new been installed, have repairs to out of order generators been completed, or has covid squashed demand ?
That extra will at best be used for water heating IF you have an intelligent power system collected.So does that extra get diverted to hot water heating at that time ?
Can i suggest you might take an approach here which is too macro focused?A few issues there.
Yes there have been repairs done to the two generating units in Victoria which experienced major failures last year and lead to considerable concern. In both cases those were major repairs taking circa 6 months following significant incidents.
The other factor is that there's considerable variation in consumption both seasonally and throughout the day. In Victoria's case the maximum demand ever recorded exceeds 10,000 MW but right now it's sitting on about 5700 and last night it dropped down to about 4500. So time of day makes a big difference but also there are seasonal issues.
Queensland peaks in Summer. Tasmania peaks in Winter. Obvious climatic reasons in both cases noting that the majority of space heating in Tas is electric (unlike say Victoria where gas heating is dominant).
NSW, Vic, SA have their absolute peak on hot days in summer but an average day in winter sees higher demand than an average non-heatwave day in summer. So winter's a more relentless grind but it's summer that sees the extremes and it's those extremes in summer which lead to most concerns about supply.
So there's still a lot of concern about supply reliability during heatwaves etc, we could well see load shedding over the coming summers on extreme days indeed I'll go as far as saying it's likely to happen at some point, but that's an issue only at the actual peaks.
Even on a day when demand reaches extreme levels, there's still a surplus of supply just a few hours either side of that. Come back at midnight the same day and some generating plant will be completely shut down as simply not required.
As a more familiar analogy, road traffic. A city can be heavily congested at 6pm but the streets may be practically empty just two or three hours later and you'd be waiting a while to find even one car on the road at 3am.
So whether it's electricity or roads, you can certainly put more volume through the existing infrastructure just so long as you're not doing it at the peaks. Transporting a heavy load through the city or charging EV's at night isn't a concern, doing it at midday in either case wouldn't cause much of a worry either, but adding more traffic to the roads or more load to the power grid at ~6pm is best avoided.
Some charts show it pretty well:
Past 12 months daily data for Victoria and SA. Note the spikes on a few days in summer - that's what causes most of the concern. The pattern is much the same for NSW in particular.
Black = coal
Orange = gas
Blue = hydro
Green = wind
Yellow = solar
Purple = import from other states
Below the zero line = export to other states
View attachment 106160
View attachment 106161
For the December spike in SA, Adelaide recorded maximum temperatures of 43.7, 45.3 and 43.9 on those three consecutive days (BOM data). For the Victorian spike in January, Melbourne recorded 42.9 degrees on 31 January.
That said, even on an extreme day demand only hits that maximum for a relatively brief period. Looking at the past week, and noting that a broadly similar pattern occurs throughout the year, there are always periods when demand is relatively low:
View attachment 106162
View attachment 106163
View attachment 106164
So just over the last 7 days we see the overall supply and demand situation constantly changing and varying quite dramatically. There are times when a lot of load could be added without an issue, other times when the capacity is more stretched. Tasmania in particular is somewhat a "shock absorber" for the other states - largely because with a couple of exceptions the hydro stations are extremely easy to start up and shut down.
So it can all be made to work and there's no need to build anything if charging is done using a "smart" approach which avoids adding load to the existing peak around 6pm.
Of course, if consumers do want to charge at that time then it's doable, it's just a matter of building infrastructure but obviously that does cost money but as with anything it can be built.
It's a couple of years old but still relevant and there's a lot of scenarios and information in this report for those interested:
https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/e...final---aemo-ev-insights---september-2017.pdf
That extra will at best be used for water heating IF you have an intelligent power system collected.
Most people do not and you end up warming the air via a huge resistor.
Anyone about global warming?
So the real usefulness of a grid able to actually consume as much as we can throw at it
A few issues there.
I question the figure of 25Kwhrs per 100 klms for EVs as well. VCs contribution from personal experience adds another POV.
Has anyone seen an authoritative table which indicates estimated power usage of the various EV's on the market ?
---------------------------
Currently looking at quotes to electrify the Caddie. Seems to be sufficient boot space for the batteries ..
Is it possible to do the equivalent of "burnouts" and "wheelies" in an electric car?
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?