Electric cars?

[SirRumpole]

Looking at NSW, Vic, SA and Tas combined, as of right now:

*All hydro generation in NSW and Vic is off. In Tas about 30% of available capacity is running with heavy southbound flow on the Tas - Vic interconnector. There's no hydro of significance in SA.

*200 MW of hydro pumping load is on in NSW.

*All diesel / kero plant in NSW and SA is off completely. There's none in Vic or Tas other than as fuel backup in gas-fired plant.

*All gas-fired plant in NSW, Vic, Tas is off completely.

*SA gas-fired plant is running at the minimum technically safe configuration for system strength. That has 1 x CCGT (one gas turbine + one steam turbine) and 2 x separate steam units on all at minimum output. Whilst other configurations are possible at the detail level, overall can't go any lower in total without risking a system collapse. Between them current output is just over 8% of installed gas-fired generating capacity in SA.

*NSW coal plant - 15 (of 16) units are on. Between them they're running at 62% of their capacity or 59% of the total coal-fired capacity in NSW.

*Vic coal plant - 8 (of 10) units are on. Between them they're running at 85% of their capacity or 76% of the total coal-fired capacity in Vic.

*SA wind generation is running at about 80% of available capacity. Rest is curtailed. Wind generation in other states is fully utilised. Wind contribution to demand is presently about 5% in NSW, 35% Vic, 105% SA, 15% Tas.

All that's a pretty standard response to low load by the way. Increasing load would be a cinch right now - even a few thousand MW across those states would be pretty straightforward so long as it was an expected occurrence.

Only reason I've left other states out was for simplicity but it's the same basic pattern.

This seems to be quite a change from a few months ago when the system was apparently on a knife edge and blackouts (sorry load shedding) were on the cards.

Has anything new been installed, have repairs to out of order generators been completed, or has covid squashed demand ?

And when the economy does restart, will we be back o a knife edge situation ?

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

"Global electricity demand from EVs is close to 640 TWh in 2030, concentrated in China and Europe in the New Policies Scenario and more widespread in the EV30@30 Scenario. Slow charging is the means that accounts for the largest share of electricity consumed by EVs"



Source: IEA analysis developed with the IEA Mobility Model. Notes: NPS = New Policies Scenario; EV30@30 = EV30@30 Scenario; LDV = light-duty vehicle. In the columns with results by type of charger, green and blue correspond to slow chargers; red, yellow and orange correspond to fast chargers. Main assumptions: 20% higher annual mileage for EVs than for conventional ICE vehicles. Fuel consumption (in kilowatt-hours per kilometre): PLDVs 0.20-0.26; LCVs 0.31-0.42; buses 1.2-1.74; minibuses 0.35-1.49; medium trucks 0.87-1.11; heavy trucks 1.46-2.08, two-wheelers 0.03-o.04. Annual mileage (in km): PLDVs 8 000-18 000 km; LCVs 11 000- 31 000; buses and minibuses 15 000-45 000; medium and heavy trucks 22 000-91 000; two-wheelers 4 000-7 600. Ranges indicate the variation across countries. Charging losses are 5% and the share of electric driving for PHEVs is 70% of the annual mileage in 2030.

(https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2019)

No surprise that China are building and are planning to build 100s of nuclear reactors

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

So just for some context: Australia consumes ~220 TWh a year (https://www.worlddata.info/australia/australia/energy-consumption.php#:~:text=The most important measure in the energy balance,Australia can provide itself completely with self-produced energy.)

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

 

[over9k]

You are arguing about something with someone who is actually trained to do the very calculations that you are using to make your claim, whilst simultaneously not even understanding the very reports which you think prove you right.

It's akin to arguing with a doctor and thinking something you've found on google proves him wrong when in reality it doesn't but you just think it does because not being a doctor, you don't understand it.

They don't say what you think they do. You are talking past me and trying to defeat a point I never made.

 

[SirRumpole]

You are arguing about something with someone who is actually trained to do the very calculations that you are using to make your claim, whilst simultaneously not even understanding the very reports which you think prove you right.

They don't say what you think they do. You are talking past me and trying to defeat a point I never made.

The reports say an increase in peak power demand needs an infrastructure buildout. I've never disputed that. In fact I've been saying it. I didn't need a whole stack of reports to know that I can assure you.

I don't know why you bother mate.

 

[over9k]

I've even tried the doctor analogy now, we'll see how it goes.

This is actually fun though. I'm about 30/70 facepalm vs laughing. Like it's kind of amazing really.

 

[Value Collector]

Then there's the cost of running service stations

Yep, and that cost is huge.

not only is it super expensive to install those massive under ground Fuel storage tanks under every petrol station, but their life is only 20-30 years.

Hooking up electric charging is far less complex than petrol tanks, pipes and bowsers.

Also think about the fleet of trucks required to transport fuel around the cities and country, we already have power lines that will be transporting electricity anyway, every petrol truck we don’t need is a massive saving.

 

[rederob]

I've even tried the doctor analogy now, we'll see how it goes.

This is actually fun though. I'm about 30/70 facepalm vs laughing. Like it's kind of amazing really.

His doctor is happy to report that he won the argument with himself, although has made another appointment to be sure to be sure.

 

[over9k]

I'm going to try the flood analogy next - you know, not needing to build more drains if the rain doesn't all come at once. Maybe that'll work.

But probably not.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

The only thing I know about electricity is to always hold the step ladder when a lady is changing a ceiling light bulb.

gg

 

[Value Collector]

The only thing I know about electricity is to always hold the step ladder when a lady is changing a ceiling light bulb.

gg

Don’t bring up electric lighting, or some one will want to point out electric lighting requires coal and until we have zero emission lighting we should forget about efficient LED lighting and move back to Kerosine lamps.

 

[Value Collector]

I'm going to try the flood analogy next - you know, not needing to build more drains if the rain doesn't all come at once. Maybe that'll work.

But probably not.

On the Tesla truck announcement, Elon said when they begin rolling out the “Mega Charger Network” which will provide charging for the Tesla Semi Trucks, the Mega chargers will be fitted with “power packs” (big batteries) and solar.

So Each charging station will not only Be producing it’s own power which it then sells to the Truck owns (which is a profitable business in itself), but it will also be able to arbitrage and buy power at cheap off peak times at night and the middle of the day to sell on demand.

Tesla already is involved in Giant battery packs around the world that help renewables supply steady Power.

their charging network could become a massive distributed production and storage network.

 

[rederob]

The only thing I know about electricity is to always hold the step ladder when a lady is changing a ceiling light bulb.

gg

Sir Garpal, only you could put a new twist a "light bulb" moment.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

You are arguing about something with someone who is actually trained to do the very calculations that you are using to make your claim, whilst simultaneously not even understanding the very reports which you think prove you right.

It's akin to arguing with a doctor and thinking something you've found on google proves him wrong when in reality it doesn't but you just think it does because not being a doctor, you don't understand it.

They don't say what you think they do. You are talking past me and trying to defeat a point I never made.

On contrary, you are disregarding people who are trained to do the calculations who actually compile the reports.

You are telling me that we won't to worry about the additional electrical consumption and that the grid can handle. Yeah right, you keep believing that.

Time for you to be put on performance review.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

His doctor is happy to report that he won the argument with himself, although has made another appointment to be sure to be sure.

So now we have personal attacks because people have been showcased as not having a clue about the increase in electrical consumption.

 

[rederob]

On contrary, you are disregarding people who are trained to do the calculations who actually compile the reports.

You are telling me that we won't to worry about the additional electrical consumption and that the grid can handle. Yeah right, you keep believing that.

Time for you to be put on performance review.

I have yet to see a poster here suggest we will not need additional capacity and an improved grid. So rather than rant, what exactly is your point?

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

I have yet to see a poster here suggest we will not need additional capacity and an improved grid. So rather than rant, what exactly is your point?

Over9k said it. He reckons that we can just charge the vehicles in off-peak and it will be fine.

 

[rederob]

So now we have personal attacks because people have been showcased as not having a clue about the increase in electrical consumption.

You appear to not have worked out that many who post here have a pretty good idea that things need to change, while you continue to be "winning" a discussion that nobody else is having with you.
I don't think others need to worry about doing your job for you given that it's between you and perhaps your better self.

 

[rederob]

Over9k said it. He reckons that we can just charge the vehicles in off-peak and it will be fine.

That's presently the case. And it will be the case for quite a few years to come, even when load shedding events prevail due to excessive daytime temperatures overloading the system.
Right now it would be great if thousands more EVs were around so that wind curtailment wasn't necessary.
And that's aside from how solar PV curtailment is necessary as more capacity is added and the daytime load is not there.