Electric cars?

[Value Collector]

Musk is telling half-truths about the loan there.

Just a quick google and the American taxpayers didn't exactly "make a profit" on their loan to Tesla. Not by the normal lending practices.

Musk claimed that Us taxpayers make a profit of $US26M.

First of, interest received on loans aren't exactly "profit", it's interest, the cost of money. So interest in and of itself can't be said to be profit unless the interest is way above the market rate... say current rate is 4% but Tesla was loaned at 6%, so the public/lender makes 2% profit on top.

Don't know the detail to really figure out the true profit... but here....

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...sla-dont-see-eye-to-eye-idUSBRE94M11D20130523

Repaid $452M as last portion of the loan. i.e. That's not the entire loan received.

Loan offered in 2009, repaid about 2013.

$26M "profit" on $452M over 3 years is practically free money.

Assume that the $452M portion is part of a bigger loan... I mean the US put aside some $300B or more to fund the loan and bailouts of US auto industry, from which Tesla got some.

------

Dude, they got a loan, they paid it back with interest, it didn't cost the government anything, trying to wiggle and say "oh but the cost of capital blah blah blah" is silly, especially when government rates were pretty much 0% or negative.

Yes, other auto makers got loans; other companies also got it too... some even go bankrupt and lost everything. So it is good that Tesla managed to repay it.

But it shouldn't be sold as them being nice and good to the public. That's a bit dishonest.

It's not being sold that way, Musk is just defending the company from attacks that were constantly accusing Tesla of being a burden on the government.

What is this, SpaceX where the Pentagon and CIA funded all the rockets and trials?

Do you know how much the USA government spends on launching satellites, it costs about $400 Million each launch, and its quite possible musk can reduce this to $40 Million, that 10 for 1.

Know if the government refused to look into that I think it would be silly.

Does it sound right for rich people who can afford $180K+ car to be getting a tax rebate?

Who said they are all rich, some wouldn't be able to buy it without the rebate.

Maybe if the gov't care so much for the air quality and health of the sick Americans, give those rebates towards healthcare for the sufferer.

Didn't you mother ever tell you prevention is better than the cure?
-------

The desert might be worthless when no ultilities and infrastructure are built on it; but it's pretty darn valuable to a company, any company, once all the roads and power and utilities are built to get people to that useless desert housing a roof full of solar panel that generate electricity.

Yes, once Tesla has a mega factory there everything around it become more valuable.

So the local government that gave the land will earn more in property taxes and income taxes and it will be a boost to the whole state.

I read a, from memory, BusinessWeek report into Tesla's/Musk pitting one state gov't against another to get the subsidies.

So that proves the states are seeing it as an investment, if they are competing for it.

I don't remember reading any guarantee that Tesla would keep hiring X number of American workers. At most, give them 3 years and they'll either automate everything or just ship the jobs overseas to China or Mexico.

Do you want to bet another bottle of rum on that, eg I bet that in 3 years Tesla still has American workers at both factories.

They will still get the keep the plant, the subsidies and the roads.. .well the roads the ratepayers still own and will of course need to maintained.

you aren't even making sense, first you say they will move to china or Mexico, then you say but they will keep the factory??? what's the point of the factory if they have moved production to Mexico or china.

And I just read a few days or weeks ago that Musk is thinking about manufacturing future Teslas in China.

Yes, making the Tesla's in china to sell to china.

He already stated longterm he wants to have multiple Gigafactories (battery plant) and vehicle plants around the world.

His Giga factory will be the largest factory in the world when its done, but he has said there needs to be 100 of them around the world to supply enough batteries for cars, homes etc etc

He said they won't all be Tesla factories, but he definitely wants to build more gigafactories.
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And no, I'm quite optimistic. I just see way too much PR about private genius and entrepreneurial ability to save the world yet if you look below the surface a bit, it's pretty all funded by the public, most of whom would never get to use what their money was put towards.

I doubt you have even looked at their balance sheet.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I stopped behind a Telsa in Townsville 2 days ago and it looked sweet. Took off like a proper car.

 

[Value Collector]

Economics of the space X rocket explained.

 

[luutzu]

Economics of the space X rocket explained.

The video is basically the guy reading PR releases from SpaceX, maybe some quotes from a few Musk interviews.

Bringing a space launch of satellites down from the current $400M to $50M or $10M... that's not a fact, that's a marketing presentation.

And they have tried reusable spacecraft - the Space Shuttle. It cost the US some $500M per launch with them.

It's not as reusable as the powerpoint said it is. I've actually saw a doco on it. It was sold as so affordable and reusable in that you would just dust it off and add fuel. Reality was they pretty much have to go through the entire system, check the millions or so parts.

Might be cheaper to just build a cheap, ugly but working tube with fuel firing at the end, shoot it up and let it burn in outer space.

And come on, Musk not wanting to make money on SpaceX. He simply want to go to Mars.

 

[Value Collector]

The video is basically the guy reading PR releases from SpaceX, maybe some quotes from a few Musk interviews.

Bringing a space launch of satellites down from the current $400M to $50M or $10M... that's not a fact, that's a marketing presentation.

And they have tried reusable spacecraft - the Space Shuttle. It cost the US some $500M per launch with them.

It's not as reusable as the powerpoint said it is. I've actually saw a doco on it. It was sold as so affordable and reusable in that you would just dust it off and add fuel. Reality was they pretty much have to go through the entire system, check the millions or so parts.

Might be cheaper to just build a cheap, ugly but working tube with fuel firing at the end, shoot it up and let it burn in outer space.

All I can say is wait and see, I would offer another bet, but I think I would end up drunk with all your money, and I don't want to take the food from your kids mouths.

I have been following space X, and they have been making pretty solid progress.

And come on, Musk not wanting to make money on SpaceX. He simply want to go to Mars.

Why not? I mean if he was in things for the money, I doubt he would have chosen the businesses he has.

He could have just plonked his $165 Million into an index and sat pool side in Hawaii earning $16Million a year.

If you look at all that Musk has done and just get cynical and negative, I think its more of a reflection you more than him.

 

[jetblack]

I like the electric car and motorcycle, its the charge up. If you could charge the battery full in as much time as it took to fill the average family SUV from empty then its a plus. But I think Battery SWap Stations are the go, and that will take Service attendants to do this work, cant imagine an old lady changing a battery, so we going back in time to full Service Stations, Love my 351.

 

[sptrawler]

1. I like the electric car and motorcycle, its the charge up. If you could charge the battery full in as much time as it took to fill the average family SUV from empty then its a plus. But I think Battery SWap Stations are the go, and that will take Service attendants to do this work, cant imagine an old lady changing a battery, so we going back in time to full Service Stations, Love my 351.

Just wondering, do you have any idea how big a 90Kw/hr battery is?

Google Tesla battery pictures, and check it out, it is the whole sub frame of the car.

Best of luck swapping that out in a workshop, let alone in an outback swap station.

 

[Value Collector]

I like the electric car and motorcycle, its the charge up. If you could charge the battery full in as much time as it took to fill the average family SUV from empty then its a plus. But I think Battery SWap Stations are the go, and that will take Service attendants to do this work, cant imagine an old lady changing a battery, so we going back in time to full Service Stations, Love my 351.

it actually takes less time to charge your battery than it does to fill your tank with petrol.

You just park in you garage and plug it in, it takes 10 seconds of your time.

But filling you car with petrol takes 10 mins, by the time drive in, fill, pay, drive off, it takes even longer to fill if you have to make a special trip out of your way to the petrol station.

The only time you have to worry about charge times is on road trips, but starting with a full battery then 25mins charge along the way gets you 700kms, and driving 700kms without atleast 25 mins of breaks would Be unusual.

 

[Value Collector]

Just wondering, do you have any idea how big a 90Kw/hr battery is?

Google Tesla battery pictures, and check it out, it is the whole sub frame of the car.

Best of luck swapping that out in a workshop, let alone in an outback swap station.

Google Tesla battery swap, there is a YouTube video of a machine they designed to do it in 90seconds, but they decided it just wasn't needed, so didn't pursue the idea, the super chargers are more practical

 

[sptrawler]

The good thing about Musk is, he is pushing the boundaries, which is causing stress in the established auto industries.
At worst, he will probably be bought out, at best he will continue challenging the establishment to adapt and change.
In the end it is a win/win for consumers, they are being forced into a transition from fossil fuel, at the manufacturers expense.
Whether they end up with battery/ battery hybrid or hydrogen fuel cell, the good thing is Musk has taken the fight up to the established manufacturers, and we have to thank him for that.
Without a Musk, we would be paying for the development of the new technologies.IMO

Having said that, there is no way I'm buying an electric vehicle, in the next 10 years, I was burnt buying a Tandy TRS80 for $1500.
Thankfully I realised the mistake and sold it quickly for $1,000, that was in 1981. lol

 

[sptrawler]

Google Tesla battery swap, there is a YouTube video of a machine they designed to do it in 90seconds, but they decided it just wasn't needed, so didn't pursue the idea, the super chargers are more practical

Jeez VC, you need to take the plunge and open up a Tesla dealership, you certainly have the chat and it is a brand new field.
Could be the opportunity of a life time.

 

[Value Collector]

Best of luck swapping that out in a workshop, let alone in an outback swap station.

Here is the video of the battery swap, its takes this machine less than 2 mins.

But as I said Tesla have sort of abandoned this Idea, and instead have focussed on fast chargers.

 

[luutzu]

All I can say is wait and see, I would offer another bet, but I think I would end up drunk with all your money, and I don't want to take the food from your kids mouths.

I have been following space X, and they have been making pretty solid progress.



Why not? I mean if he was in things for the money, I doubt he would have chosen the businesses he has.

He could have just plonked his $165 Million into an index and sat pool side in Hawaii earning $16Million a year.

If you look at all that Musk has done and just get cynical and negative, I think its more of a reflection you more than him.

That quote only applies to young cynics. I'm a bit older now so my cynicism got that grey hair to give it authority

You might mix up the meaning of cynicism with pessimism. They're quite different aren't they?

A cynic would listen to a sales pitch for a sale of the century and have a good laugh.

A optimist nearby would clap and cry for a world of peace and joy that's to come.

A pessimist would do something sad.

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What were you planning to bet on? A sense of humour you got there too.
But yea, shouldn't bet as I'd feel bad you have to both pay Tesla's insane Idle Fee and pay me.

Heard they're charging a higher rate for faster charging, twice as much.

One would think that if Tesla cares so much for not holding up Tesla owners at the pump, they'd halved the price if you choose to charge at a higher rate. Make more sense that way, right?

So how does charging more per same kilowatt not disconnect with the of getting people quickly on the road and free the space? It's a money grab, not that there's anything wrong with that.

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Why would Elon Musk and his work make anyone optimistic about the future?

I do give him credit for not sitting around with all that cash and just spend it. But to do some work, move around in jets, and get paid in the hundreds of millions and billions for it. That's nothing new. I know people who would work for a lot less.

[I know I know, he got paid $1 for running Tesla or something... yes, I bet he doesn't own any stock or give himself any options].

So for Musk to not waste his time and money, and opportunities... that's nice and good. Nothing praise worthy or tear shedding about it. It's just another person going to work.

And dude, would Musk still be CEO if he seriously do not want to make money out of things his company is flogging? He'd be fired in a minute if he implement policies where his shareholders wouldn't make any money. Be sued by creditors too.

So it's easy to say he doesn't need the money or work for the money... a bit hard to believe when he charges crap load of cash for his cars and genius. Heck, he even charge for people not doing anything.


So yea, I don't see a better future and be optimistic because a capitalist want to use other people's money to make more money (by selling stuff).

Optimism comes from such thing as hearing about a guy who goes to Cambodia during his annual leave, spend a month there to work with others, using his own money, to build schools and pay for textbooks and stationary for impoverish children.

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As to Musk entrepreneurial ability... meh.
Unless it turns out that he design the engine, create whatever it is that build those rockets... he's just a salesman, a highly paid and over-rated one.

Thomas Edison; Nikola Tesla; Henry Ford; Walt Disney... maybe even Bill Gates and Steve Jobs... Those are people who build new industries with their own genius and hard work.

Steve Jobs, to his credit, does a bit more than playing the orchestra. He did backed Pixar Studios when it was in the dump and would be flushed by Disney if he didn't fork out the cash, the time and patience to help it find small work where it can.

So unless Musk is also a literal rocket scientist; a genius car engineer... Any idiot can have vision and dream big when they have billions upon billions of dollars to play with.

 

[luutzu]

it actually takes less time to charge your battery than it does to fill your tank with petrol.

You just park in you garage and plug it in, it takes 10 seconds of your time.

But filling you car with petrol takes 10 mins, by the time drive in, fill, pay, drive off, it takes even longer to fill if you have to make a special trip out of your way to the petrol station.

The only time you have to worry about charge times is on road trips, but starting with a full battery then 25mins charge along the way gets you 700kms, and driving 700kms without atleast 25 mins of breaks would Be unusual.

Doesn't it take 1 hour per 3 miles on a standard home charger using standard plugs?

To get a faster charge from home, owners need to install a 3-phase, whatever amp that is... cost could go from $1K to $2K or so? Depends?

Not saying it's Tesla or any EV manufacturer's fault. It's a relatively new are and the gov't hasn't had the fund to build the infrastructure for them yet.

Still, these are faults and inconvenience we forgive on cheap stuff we buy, not luxury items that costs a few years savings for most folks.

 

[Value Collector]

You might mix up the meaning of cynicism with pessimism. They're quite different aren't they?



View attachment 84971

Nope I didn't mix up the meaning, but I believe you are both, but mainly a cynic.
Thomas Edison; Nikola Tesla; Henry Ford; Walt Disney... maybe even Bill Gates and Steve Jobs... Those are people who build new industries with their own genius and hard work.

Steve Jobs, to his credit, does a bit more than playing the orchestra. He did backed Pixar Studios when it was in the dump and would be flushed by Disney if he didn't fork out the cash, the time and patience to help it find small work where it can.

So unless Musk is also a literal rocket scientist; a genius car engineer... Any idiot can have vision and dream big when they have billions upon billions of dollars to play with.

Was Henry Ford the best mechanical engineer?
Was Walt Disney the best Animator?
Was Steve Jobs the Best computer programer?

No they weren't, But they had Vision and backed it will everything they had, and they changed the world in doing it.

So I am not sure why you detract from Musk becasue as you say he isn't "a literal rocket scientist" of "genius car engineer"

I respect people that have big visions, and put everything they have into making it happen.

-----------------------
But look I will leave you to your cynicism,

 

[luutzu]

Dude, they got a loan, they paid it back with interest, it didn't cost the government anything, trying to wiggle and say "oh but the cost of capital blah blah blah" is silly, especially when government rates were pretty much 0% or negative.

Not so silly when the same "free" money aren't given to, I don't know... struggling families living on foodstamps that's being reduced because the gov't "have no money"; or poor citizens who can't afford healthcare, goes broke if they ever suffer a serious illness.

It's not a loan if it's practically free. It's called welfare.

It's not being sold that way, Musk is just defending the company from attacks that were constantly accusing Tesla of being a burden on the government.

People shouldn't attack Tesla for that. Pretty much all of corporations around the world does it.

Do you know how much the USA government spends on launching satellites, it costs about $400 Million each launch, and its quite possible musk can reduce this to $40 Million, that 10 for 1.

Know if the government refused to look into that I think it would be silly.

The $40M is what they say. Accounting can be a bit funny when it comes to costs you want to ignore.

And SpaceX aren't planning on going to Mars. What the heck would they do there? take some photos for the desktop wall paper?

Just you can't say all the fundings are for surveillance and military uses. Can't say it's a way to use public fund to pay for private research and development into new fields with the potential for military and national security uses.

that's how pretty much all new tech are funded. With a grand vision to conquer the final frontier, paid for by the public until profit can be made... at which time they're passed onto private hands.

Who said they are all rich, some wouldn't be able to buy it without the rebate.

Should we shed some tears for those who's $12K or so short of buying a $180K luxury car?

I don't think you could feel sorry for anyone who's $12K short of buying a car.

My first car cost $500. $500 of parts from a wrecker later and its battery only die once every few times I take it out.

Most people would be happy to have a car at $12K budget.

Didn't you mother ever tell you prevention is better than the cure?
-------

She did, but she didn't at the same time take my allowance and gave it to her favourite kid because he needs the extra few bucks to buy a better toy.

Yes, once Tesla has a mega factory there everything around it become more valuable.

So the local government that gave the land will earn more in property taxes and income taxes and it will be a boost to the whole state.
So that proves the states are seeing it as an investment, if they are competing for it.

Well... give any entrepreneur free land, build new roads and infrastructure around them; give them tax breaks and incentives in the hundreds of millions and pretty soon the industry complex you're setting up for them become valuable. Probably try to then not give similar deals to nearby corporations who whinge about Tesla being favoured.

Do you want to bet another bottle of rum on that, eg I bet that in 3 years Tesla still has American workers at both factories.

Having a few guys at the computer isn't exactly having a workforce employing good jobs and all that.

you aren't even making sense, first you say they will move to china or Mexico, then you say but they will keep the factory??? what's the point of the factory if they have moved production to Mexico or china.

You keep the factory for other things. Say, robotic assembling; storage... just enough percentage of a car's value to get more tax breaks.

That and you spread out factories across various states and jurisdiction. Make sure there's enough workers and businesses to be calling their Senator and reps if funding and sweatheart deals are ever reduced.

that and you need excess capacity. That's how you threaten the workforces around the world to better get more efficient for less pay else you ship the jobs to them vacant factories.

Can do the same threat with state and local revenue too.

Yes, making the Tesla's in china to sell to china.

He already stated longterm he wants to have multiple Gigafactories (battery plant) and vehicle plants around the world.

His Giga factory will be the largest factory in the world when its done, but he has said there needs to be 100 of them around the world to supply enough batteries for cars, homes etc etc

He said they won't all be Tesla factories, but he definitely wants to build more gigafactories.
-----

I don't think China would want a Tesla there so they can buy more Teslas.

And if I could get a giga factory for free... sign me up man. I'd have htem all over the Earth, and even Mars.

I doubt you have even looked at their balance sheet.

Don't really need to look at Tesla's to know what's in it

 

[Value Collector]

Doesn't it take 1 hour per 3 miles on a standard home charger using standard plugs?

To get a faster charge from home, owners need to install a 3-phase, whatever amp that is... cost could go from $1K to $2K or so? Depends?

.

If you plug into a normal power point it charges at about 6.4 km's per hour,

If you have installed a home charger it will charge at 50kms / hour, from empty to full in about 10 hours, while you sleep mainly.

Still, these are faults and inconvenience we forgive on cheap stuff we buy, not luxury items that costs a few years savings for most folks

Where is the inconvenience? if you own the car you would install a charger at your home, and can charge at like 50km's per hour.

If you really don't want to pay an electrician to install a 3 phase charger , you could still get away with charging on your standard power point. charging it over night for say 12 hours a night gives you 530 kilometres of driving a week, if you are at home for more than 12 hours a day, you will get more.

If thats not enough then you might have to stop at an charge station, which you have to do about once a week with a petrol car anyway.

But, some one that drives alot would just install a charger at their home.

AGL will install a charger for you, then only charge you $1 per day for unlimited charging.

Lets say the charger is $1000 and 1 year of charging is $365 = $1365 / year

50 Litres of fuel x $1.40/L = $70 / week = $3640 / year

So even factoring in installing a charger saves you more than $2000 in the first year compared to going to the fuel station.

 

[Wysiwyg]

This is really exciting as an electric vehicle. Electric boat propulsion. Surely there is a massive market for them in Australia.

 

[luutzu]

Nope I didn't mix up the meaning, but I believe you are both, but mainly a cynic.
Thomas Edison; Nikola Tesla; Henry Ford; Walt Disney... maybe even Bill Gates and Steve Jobs... Those are people who build new industries with their own genius and hard work.



Was Henry Ford the best mechanical engineer?
Was Walt Disney the best Animator?
Was Steve Jobs the Best computer programer?

No they weren't, But they had Vision and backed it will everything they had, and they changed the world in doing it.

So I am not sure why you detract from Musk becasue as you say he isn't "a literal rocket scientist" of "genius car engineer"

I respect people that have big visions, and put everything they have into making it happen.

-----------------------
But look I will leave you to your cynicism,

So Musk rolled up his sleeves and do the important bits?

Henry Ford actually build his first few cars by himself and a couple of buddies, in his garage. He might not be the best ones, not even close to the likes of those in Europe working on the Rolls Royce or whatever, but he know and work on his vision from the ground up.

Similar with Walt Disney. etc.

I'm not taking anything away from Musk. I'm sure he's a smart guy who's obviously hardworking. That's great.

To call him a visionary... he's more of a promoter and manager than a true visionary.

Just because I don't rate Musk too highly doesn't mean I'm cynical. Just that there are people I highly admire more than Musk. And they arent all rich or famous or as successful as he is either.

Take my two brothers. They have full time jobs. They barely have a proper garage. They could not hire anybody....

Yet they borrow and save, buy used cars, import electric drive trains and work by themselves on weekends to figure out how to put an "EV" together. Just because they love it.

And they don't do it with ATO tax subsidies or tax breaks or proper engineers either.

 

[Wysiwyg]

To call him a visionary... he's more of a promoter and manager than a true visionary.

I agree. He is the mega entrepreneur.

Tesla’s mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy through increasingly affordable electric vehicles and energy products.

That is exactly what they are doing and any capitalist will join the ride. The technology is replicable and comparatively simple. The best affordable products will do well. I look forward to the Toyota 4WD electric long range vehicle whenever they come out. For home storage LGChem from Korea might be one to watch.
Would I buy a Tesla product? No. There will come a point like with the internet where we go from dial up to high speed connection and from snail pace processing to instant. All that at an affordable price. When that time arrives will be the time for me to jump in. 10 years at a guess but hopefully sooner.