ELECTIONS - Labor or Liberal

[Knobby22]

The truth is, as the previous quotes say, is that Howard isn't an economic conservative. An economic conservative would be buying overseas capital in this boom times.

This has been done by many successful European countries and places llike Singapore.
This (1) helps the balance of payments.
(2) lowers the rise in the dollar
(3) reduces pressure on interest rates by not pump priming a booming economy. (We have the highest interest rates in the OECD by the way).

I am an economic conservative and am only voting Rudd to stop Howard doing more damage. I just hope Rudd is smarter. (faint hope)

 

[Rafa]

Yeah, that was a fascinating article on the Age on the right and wrong ways of handling resource booms...

Keeping the tax proceeds of the resource boom in a separate investment fund that actually invests it in overseas ventures is way to balance out the terms of trade, keep the dollar lower and also deliver earnings (which you can then spend)...

Its basic financial management really... with any windfall, you invest and live of the earnings... NOT BLOW THE WINDFALL IN ONE BIG PARTY!

Here it is
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2007/11/10/1194329562546.html

Some excerpts...

As both parties announce tax cuts and goodies for grey voters and those of other hues, neither party has addressed the fact that the resource boom is doing more to reduce Australia's long-term prosperity than to enhance it.

As Australians plan for even more expansive overseas sojourns this Christmas, or an even bigger splurge on imported luxuries, all courtesy of the high dollar, ask yourself this simple question: Can a country that has racked up more than half a trillion dollars in foreign debt since the float of the dollar in 1983 really afford to have an exchange rate approaching parity with its US counterpart?

.
.
.

The long-term challenge facing Australia is variously called the "resource curse", the "paradox of plenty" or the "Dutch disease". This is when an influx of income from resource wealth drives up the exchange rate and inflates the domestic economy, making the country less internationally competitive and thereby crippling its long-term prosperity.

The opening of the fiscal floodgates by the Howard Government in recent years, and by both major parties in this election, follows the resource curse script to the letter. This has led to higher inflation and interest rates, in turn driving up the exchange rate and making the country less competitive. And the fiscal stimulus rolled out in this campaign can be expected to do more of the same.

The resource curse is usually found in developing countries, but as former US Federal Reserve Board chairman Alan Greenspan explained in his recent book, The Age of Turbulence, the phenomenon was first identified in Holland, when revenue from North Sea oil flooded into the country.

"How is it possible that a super-abundance of natural resources ”” oil, gas, copper, iron ore ”” would not significantly add to a nation's production and wealth? Paradoxically, most analysts conclude that, particularly in developing countries, natural resource bonanzas tend to reduce rather than enhance living standards," he writes. "[It] takes the form of an economic affliction nicknamed the 'Dutch disease'. Dutch disease strikes when foreign demand for an export drives up the exchange value of the exporting country's currency."

.
.
.

The absence of any policy response to the resource curse is all the more surprising when there are practical models that have been implemented in other countries, most notably Norway, which in 1995 established a "Petroleum Fund" (now known as the Government Pension Fund). More recently, East Timor adopted the model in full ”” with some additional transparency measures ”” for the management of its revenue from the Timor Sea. In Norway's case, all the tax revenue from its North Sea oil resources flows directly into the offshore fund which invests in government bonds and blue-chip equities. The government then draws on the fund.

Essentially, the country can spend the real interest on its natural resources long after the oil resources have been exhausted. The fund is designed so that Norway can transform a non-renewable resource into a financial asset that will last forever. Importantly, Norway avoids the pitfalls of natural resource wealth by parking the money offshore. Instead of driving up the exchange rate and making the country less competitive, the revenue simply drives up the value of the fund.

Former prime minister Paul Keating recently referred to the floating exchange rate as the "shock absorber" for the economy; a sudden inflow of export earnings was absorbed by the exchange rate rather than flooding the domestic economy. But Norway has taken a quantum leap forward; its shock absorber is the petroleum fund and it reaps the benefit of oil wealth by increasing the nation's assets rather than diminishing competitiveness.

After launching in 1995, Norway's fund is now worth 1800 billion krone ($A363 billion), and expected to double by 2010.

Australia's much vaunted Future Fund cannot be compared with the Norway fund, although it could be transformed to help Australia deal with the "curse". At present the Future Fund is only designed to address future liabilities from unfunded public service pensions. Its recent annual report shows that about half of its new investment went into Australian shares. In effect, the Future Fund is also helping to bid up the exchange rate.

The Future Fund should be collecting the proceeds of the resources boom and putting this money offshore. This could be achieved by imposing a levy on all resource projects which would be deducted from the tax already paid by resource companies.

But if Australia was really serious, all resource-based taxation would be paid into the fund and then drawn down by the Government at a sustainable rate.

This way, Australia could truly benefit from the resource boom without crippling the rest of the economy and undermining its long-term prosperity.

 

[noco]

That is exactly the problem. We know that we will get Costello who is on the record as saying John Howard makes too many spending promises. He can call them "noncore" promises in the future and say HE didn't make them. He is also on record, I believe, as saying that Work Choices need to go further. Costello is the last person we need.

Sooner see Costello than Swan; Swanie can't lay straight in bed; he lies through his teeth every time he opens his mouth. Peter Garrett confirms this when he had a slip of the tongue by saying what ever Rudd and Swan say about "ME TOO", will all be thrown out the window "IF" elected. Don't come back and tell me it was all a "BIG JOKE".
Nobody knew who they were going to get when Beattie,Carr and Bracks pulled the pin.
WORK CHOICES HA! If I were you I would more worried about the Unions : McDonald, Reynolds and Mihyl, these fellows will want to be rewarded for the $m's they pump into the Labor Party campaign.

 

[Rafa]

ooo... i'm scarred...

I guess you don't mind howard spending like a drunken sailor...

Labor's commitments announced today were one-quarter of those announced on Monday, he said.

'I have no intention today of folllowing Mr Howard's irresponsible spending spree,'' he said to an enthusiastic response.

"Unlike Mr Howard, I will heed the warnings of the Reserve Bank. Unlike Mr Howard I will not place in jeopardy households already struggling with mortgages.

"Today I am saying loud and clear, that this sort of reckless spending must stop.''

 

[chops_a_must]

WORK CHOICES HA! If I were you I would more worried about the Unions : McDonald, Reynolds and Mihyl, these fellows will want to be rewarded for the $m's they pump into the Labor Party campaign.

Did they ask to be rewarded last time when the CFMEU gave control of the senate to the Libs?

 

[moXJO]

Thank God someone showed some restraint when it came to spending. Rudd must have his fingers on the voter sentiment pulse because he just won me over.Theres a lot I don’t agree with in labors overall plan, but Howard’s $9billion splurge at this time shows just how off the mark he is.

While it will be interesting times in the following years for small business, I'm hoping it won't be a total disaster.

 

[nioka]

Sooner see Costello than Swan;
WORK CHOICES HA! If I were you I would more worried about the Unions : McDonald, Reynolds and Mihyl, these fellows will want to be rewarded for the $m's they pump into the Labor Party campaign.

Are you suggesting Rudd will hand over to Swan. We know Howard will hand over to Costello.
RUDD IS MORE LIKELY TO REWARD THE PEOPLE WHO VOTED HIM IN THAN A HAND FULL OF UNION BOSSES.

 

[Aussiejeff]

Sooner see Costello than Swan;....

Un/fortunately, Costello is not guaranteed the job - Mr Howard said so in one of his latest interviews. He said that it will be up to his (Costello's) colleagues in the party room after JH retires.

So who knows? Maybe Ruddock? Downer? Abbot? Turnbull? Hockey?

Which one of those alternative members of "The Dream Team" tickles your fancy....?



Cheers,

AJ

 

[explod]

Un/fortunately, Costello is not guaranteed the job - Mr Howard said so in one of his latest interviews. He said that it will be up to his (Costello's) colleagues in the party room after JH retires.

So who knows? Maybe Ruddock? Downer? Abbot? Turnbull? Hockey?

Which one of those alternative members of "The Dream Team" tickles your fancy....?



Cheers,

AJ

Yat gotta be jokin. They have all lost the big piicture. So I am going for Bob Brown. If we have any hope at all for the Grandchildren we should all have to sit in the middle of the highways and stop the traffic to stop pollution in its tracks. And we have to convince the Pope to put all Catholic Women on the pill and convince all men they would be doing mankind the best service by going on the pull. Selibacy should go too. The priests should marry the Nuns so that alter boys can live an adjusted normal life and if the Pope does not like that he would be better off joining Lucifer in Hell.

 

[Julia]

Explod, good stuff re the Catholic suggestions. Don't hold your breath,however.

I was pretty impressed by Kevin Rudd's speech today (or at least the bits of it I heard): big on imagery, passionate and well delivered. Left John Howard for dead.

I still don't know who I will vote for, but no longer a definite Liberal voter now. When John Howard lost me was in a brief grab I saw on TV where he went to visit an obviously disabled child in the child's home after apparently the child had written to him about saving the Orangutangs in Borneo.
Howard appeared to almost hug the kid who was clearly overcome by the whole performance, and then the announcement was made that we would spend $500,000 to save the Orang -u Tangs. Well, that's very nice indeed.
I am all for saving endangered animals. But first, Mr Howard, I would like you to save a few endangered species in Australia, like human beings who are homeless or simply whose teeth are falling out because they can't afford any dental care and you abolished the Commonwealth Dental Plan when you came into office.

Somehow, this piece of spin - designed to warm our hearts with his affection for the little kids, the disabled and the animals all in 30 seconds - just hit all my hypocrisy buttons and I felt disgusted at the insincerity of it all.

Anyone else still undecided?

 

[noirua]

My general feeling on the election is that the Liberal alliance will make a recovery in the last 7 days, leading up to the election, and win with a slim majority.

 

[Francis Begbie]

I consider myself the youth of this nation at ninety and this election has just put me completely off Australian politics. In my eyes, Australians see an election as what they can get from there public purse, and see the government as an asset for the individual, rather then something that deals with economic policy. Infrastructure and and a respectable gov't surplus don't win votes.

Both parties seem to be focused on playing a game of media chess, with the sassy kevin rudd making all the right moves with his green funds, computers in schools and his high-speed broadband (which he said would be everywhere in Australia, yet in the same speech took that back and said everywhere possible. He also accused the govt's 7 billion$ handout of been inflationary, despite the fact that all his policies are also inflationary, without any mention of policies that would provide downward pressure. Howard on the other hand is just as bad, and almost identical, although has a better team (with actual experience with businesses rather then public servants) and is influenced by big business rather then unions/preferences (better economy = better equity).

I finalising, Australians need to learn that the rest of the world doesn't live like us, and economically the way live isn't sustainable for ourselves little own the world. In world standards a job is a privilege that is earnt, not a right. And your employers aren't the enemy, even if you work your ass off for the minimum wage.

Sorry about the ramblings, but theres my thoughts, will vote liberal for reps, and greens for senate.

Howards an idiot dinosaur
Rudds more of an idiot and a better mre manipulative politician

Thought this article was interesting on the liberals poor economic management (considering massive growth.)

http://www.crikey.com.au/Politics/2...us-Australia-our-pathetic-savings-record.html

Peace Guys

 

[Francis Begbie]

Thank God someone showed some restraint when it came to spending. Rudd must have his fingers on the voter sentiment pulse because he just won me over.Theres a lot I don’t agree with in labors overall plan, but Howard’s $9billion splurge at this time shows just how off the mark he is.

While it will be interesting times in the following years for small business, I'm hoping it won't be a total disaster.

My grasp of economics isn't at that of ben bernake just yet, but how much pressure do you think $9 billion towards school fees will put on inflation/the economy when we already have some $30 b (unsure of figure) of tax cuts and a labour govt saying they will cut emissions buy 60% by 2050, with no sought of scientific plan, viable policy to do so.

I hate to say it, but either way it looks as if when a recession does come in some years time, it will come hard, and we are goin to need a jeff kennet style government to shapen up Australia for the future. The more you save now, the more you have in the future boys.

 

[shaunm]

Un/fortunately, Costello is not guaranteed the job - Mr Howard said so in one of his latest interviews. He said that it will be up to his (Costello's) colleagues in the party room after JH retires.

So who knows? Maybe Ruddock? Downer? Abbot? Turnbull? Hockey?

Which one of those alternative members of "The Dream Team" tickles your fancy....?



Cheers,

AJ

Now you are really scaring me! Why not add Christopher Pine & Kevin Andrews:007: to the mix for a truly terriffying scenario.:hide:

 

[robert toms]

I will tell you one group that has been rewarded by the Coalition government....Riverina irrigators amongst others.They stand to make windfall profits from the ten billion dollar " so-called plan",
It will be rough justice if inflows into the Murray stay low for years...their windfall profits will not eventuate...their water rights that most got free will be unsaleable.
I have asked my MP for some specific details on this plan,but of course not many people understand this hastily concocted plan....especially MP's.
All that most can say is that at least we have a plan!
On a personal level I have not owed money on a loan for quite a few years,and all of my children are in their thirties...so no amount of personal bribery by any party has any effect on me.
However, I have concern for the future of my grandchilren and as such the party with education and environmental plans will get my vote.
On a personal level ,I do not vote for war criminals !

 

[shaunm]

When John Howard lost me was in a brief grab I saw on TV where he went to visit an obviously disabled child in the child's home after apparently the child had written to him about saving the Orangutangs in Borneo.
Howard appeared to almost hug the kid who was clearly overcome by the whole performance, and then the announcement was made that we would spend $500,000 to save the Orang -u Tangs. Well, that's very nice indeed.
I am all for saving endangered animals. But first, Mr Howard, I would like you to save a few endangered species in Australia, like human beings who are homeless or simply whose teeth are falling out because they can't afford any dental care and you abolished the Commonwealth Dental Plan when you came into office.

Somehow, this piece of spin - designed to warm our hearts with his affection for the little kids, the disabled and the animals all in 30 seconds - just hit all my hypocrisy buttons and I felt disgusted at the insincerity of it all.

Anyone else still undecided?

You can add the $10 million he has committed to a V8 Supercar race track in Far Nth Qld:screwy:.
Oh well at least now there's a place for the parents to take the kids so they can drive their "suped" up race cars on weekends.

These sort of things add to reinforce the charge that he is desperate and has lost touch!

 

[arminius]

labor have to appeal to middle australia. after watching 4 corners the other night you can see how they need to appeal to the stupid and selfish as well.

they cannot do all these good things if they dont get over the line, and they need to pretty well match the govt in handouts to do this.

its the price we pay in a democracy inhabited by citizens whose only consideration is how to pay the next bill. its not these people we should blame, but the ones who want more, regardless how much they get.

 

[2020hindsight]

"But as I keep telling you, the media, everyone else - including my own party - I'll stay as long as they want me!!"

must be a moral here for all of us
never overestimate your own importance?
never think that the sky will fall when you step down?

(you wonder if it was more about his friendship with Bush... a concern that Costello would be more moral? (who knows on that score - unlikely to be less so)

that Costello might even apologise to the abs - just for instance - since he walked in the march.

I just hope that Aus one day recovers its old image of a bit less selfish, bit more genuine concern for the planet, bit less inclined to take on preemptive strikes on falsified grounds, bit more heart and a little less concern about wallets - especially the big guy's wallets.

PS "And I'll deny admitting in pulbic that there was ever a deal to hand over to Costello after a reasonable time - even if it means making him look an idiot"

 

[2020hindsight]

Interesting that Turnbull might get in on a technicality
I'm sure we haven't heard the last of that one yet.
Although worst case appears to be that it goes to bi-election?

(or as they say in Wentworth , a "buy-election" )

 

[Aussiejeff]

Interesting that Turnbull might get in on a technicality
I'm sure we haven't heard the last of that one yet.
Although worst case appears to be that it goes to bi-election?

(or as they say in Wentworth , a "buy-election" )

"Bi-election" is pretty appropriate terminology for the Liberals new "Voice For Gay Rights" - Malcolm Turnbull.




AJ