Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[qldfrog]

Massive virus spike in cases across the US Sun Belt states, particularly Florida and California.

Honestly, the only figure s of importance are number of admissions in hospital and number of deaths, the rest is self scare
Does anyone believe we can control this anymore?
so smooth the curve, we need a minimum of 60pc contamination to stop propagation assuming immunity is acquired
The more the better/ shorter.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Massive virus spike in cases across the US Sun Belt states, particularly Florida and California.

 

[over9k]

Yep - and these are the ones full of retirees too, so expect winnebago & thor to be a bloodbath on monday.

 

[MrChow]

My reading based on current U.S strategy is they are willing to have and tracking for 500k-1m deaths on a mimimal disruption strategy in order to save the economy.

So if a NYC happens in Texas or Florida or California and there's little national response it's not a bluff it was always plan A to take the hit on health and win the election on the economy.

 

[jbocker]

[QUOTE="basilio, post: 1078178, member:]... All Essendon players are in iso for 48 hours ... [/QUOTE]
Why 48 hours, shouldn't it be 2 weeks?? Wipe them from the competition for 2020 and put the rest of the Vic teams on notice.

 

[Smurf1976]

Honestly, the only figure s of importance are number of admissions in hospital and number of deaths

In my view if someone’s permanently harmed and never makes a full recovery then that’s also rather serious.

 

[Smurf1976]

Does anyone believe we can control this anymore?

In Australia I’m not convinced that it can’t be done so long as we can maintain a sensible approach.

A particular threat is that, well, we have a % of the population that can’t even complete a course of antibiotics once the symptoms diminish and we have others who are against vaccination and science generally.

I see no reason why such people should be allowed to endanger others.

For those who’ve gone out in public knowing they were infected, have failed to observe required quarantine or who’ve attended illegal mass gatherings they owe everyone else big time. If they aren’t heavily punished then something’s very wrong there.

 

[qldfrog]

In Australia I’m not convinced that it can’t be done so long as we can maintain a sensible approach.

A particular threat is that, well, we have a % of the population that can’t even complete a course of antibiotics once the symptoms diminish and we have others who are against vaccination and science generally.

I see no reason why such people should be allowed to endanger others.

For those who’ve gone out in public knowing they were infected, have failed to observe required quarantine or who’ve attended illegal mass gatherings they owe everyone else big time. If they aren’t heavily punished then something’s very wrong there.

I agree yes we could in Australia and then?
Even if vaccination was working and available, from Asia to Africa to Latin America, the virus is out and will stay with us.we are still having tuberculosis after decades and decades of both working vaccines and treatments
Facts:

• A total of 1.5 million people died from TB in 2018 (including 251 000 people with HIV). Worldwide, TB is one of the top 10 causes of death and the leading cause from a single infectious agent (above HIV/AIDS).
• In 2018, an estimated 10 million people fell ill with tuberculosis(TB) worldwide. 5.7 million men, 3.2 million women and 1.1 million children. There were cases in all countries and age groups. But TB is curable and preventable

So 10pc mortality rates if using same criteria as used for covid19
Aka death per detected sick person
Covid19 is sxxit but the reaction is disproportionate now that we have figures.any death is a death too much but do we agree that more than 1pc of smokers die from smoking?
If so smoking is order of magnitude worse for health than covid-19
@Smurf1976 i trust you trust facts and numbers, we share that.
As is, right now, there is no justification to destroying our economy and having collateral deaths for that pretext.
Unless this is just that a pretext....something to blame for the fuckups accumulated since the GFC.
Anyway will not enter in fruitless debate.facts numbers have long lost any meaning as BLM has proven again..just most recent example
Mitigate wear masks etc

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Honestly, the only figure s of importance are number of admissions in hospital and number of deaths, the rest is self scare
Does anyone believe we can control this anymore?
so smooth the curve, we need a minimum of 60pc contamination to stop propagation assuming immunity is acquired
The more the better/ shorter.

We will still need to address the 10s of trillions of global stimulus that governments and Central Banks have pumped into the system, which has artificially pumped up the markets. How does the FED unwind their balance sheet now without inducing a financial apocalypse? The FED is also still holding all the toxic assets from the last GFC.

 

[over9k]

Being USD, they can literally just print it.

People really underestimate just how much the USD can be abused on account of its global trade/reserve currency status. There is no other currency with which you can do this. It is unique.

Factor in demographics resulting in there soon being no good options left for money to run to, and the USD being far & away the best of all these bad options, and you have a massive flood of credit into the USA as well. Expect 0% interest rates for the USA for quite a while yet. This credit flood had actually already begun long before coronavirus hit.





USA, AU, NZ will soon be the only non "post-growth" economies left. Maybe india too.

 

[basilio]

[QUOTE="basilio, post: 1078178, member:]... All Essendon players are in iso for 48 hours ...

Why 48 hours, shouldn't it be 2 weeks?? Wipe them from the competition for 2020 and put the rest of the Vic teams on notice.[/QUOTE]

Officicals will be going through training tapes and identifying players who spent significant periods of times with Coner McKenna. These players face 14 days isolation. One of the consequences for Essendon would be playing the next two matchs with a depleted squad.

Could be a very character building couple of weeks for the club.

The AFL couldn't wipe Essendon out for the season. It would trash an already severely compromised fixture and more crucially the TV rights.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/455889/-the-rules-are-pretty-clear-dons-could-play-with-bare-minimum

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Being USD, they can literally just print it.

People really underestimate just how much the USD can be abused on account of its global trade/reserve currency status. There is no other currency with which you can do this. It is unique.

Factor in demographics resulting in there soon being no good options left for money to run to, and the USD being far & away the best of all these bad options, and you have a massive flood of credit into the USA as well. Expect 0% interest rates for the USA for quite a while yet. This credit flood had actually already begun long before coronavirus hit.





USA, AU, NZ will soon be the only non "post-growth" economies left. Maybe india too.

I also like to look at China's FDI into other global regions. Africa is interesting: "According to the 2018 UNCTAD World Investment Report, China held the fourth largest FDI stock in Africa in 2016 at $40 billion, behind the US at $57 billion, the UK at $55 billion, and France at $49 billion. If including Hong Kong, China’s investment stock in Africa rises to $53 billion. This is a dramatic improvement from 2011, when China’s investment stock in Africa was only $16 billion, placing it at the same level as Singapore and India." (https://chinapower.csis.org/china-foreign-direct-investment/)

Little doubt that China will hold the largest FDI stock in Africa within the next decade; considering that their FDI stock held is ~2.5 times greater in just 5 years, and if their FDI trajectory is maintained.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Being USD, they can literally just print it.

People really underestimate just how much the USD can be abused on account of its global trade/reserve currency status. There is no other currency with which you can do this. It is unique.

Factor in demographics resulting in there soon being no good options left for money to run to, and the USD being far & away the best of all these bad options, and you have a massive flood of credit into the USA as well. Expect 0% interest rates for the USA for quite a while yet. This credit flood had actually already begun long before coronavirus hit.





USA, AU, NZ will soon be the only non "post-growth" economies left. Maybe india too.

Reserve currency status isn't eternal.

There is talk that there will be an IMF SDR (basket of currencies), including ~5% gold, to replace the US reserve currency in time.

 

[over9k]

Sure but the U.S bretton-woods system is all encompassing. It's orders of magnitude greater than the empires of old. Then factor in demographics meaning the U.S is the only consumer economy left, america's overwhelming military might...

No shortage of actors have been trying to replace the USD for quite some time. Be it individual countries, the euro, whoever. None of them have ever even stood a chance.

I really wish you'd watch the videos I linked the other day :/

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Sure but the U.S bretton-woods system is all encompassing. It's orders of magnitude greater than the empires of old. Then factor in demographics meaning the U.S is the only consumer economy left, america's overwhelming military might...

No shortage of actors have been trying to replace the USD for quite some time. Be it individual countries, the euro, whoever. None of them have ever even stood a chance.

I really wish you'd watch the videos I linked the other day :/

Here is the history of reserve currencies:


(https://philosophyofmetrics.com/history-of-world-reserve-currencies/)

The US Dollar will fail, just like the rest of them. I am not against the US, I am just a realist.

If anything, I am a monarchist; God Save The Queen.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Reserve currency status isn't eternal.

There is talk that there will be an IMF SDR (basket of currencies), including ~5% gold, to replace the US reserve currency in time.

CP.
You took out that historical graph. Tant pis.

I've been thinking about mercantilism
/ˈməːk(ə)ntəˌlɪz(ə)m,məːˈkantɪlɪz(ə)m/

noun

1. belief in the benefits of profitable trading.
   • HISTORICAL
     the economic theory that trade generates wealth and is stimulated by the accumulation of profitable balances, which a government should encourage by means of protectionism

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

CP.
You took out that historical graph. Tant pis.

I've been thinking about mercantilism
/ˈməːk(ə)ntəˌlɪz(ə)m,məːˈkantɪlɪz(ə)m/

noun

1. belief in the benefits of profitable trading.
   • HISTORICAL
     the economic theory that trade generates wealth and is stimulated by the accumulation of profitable balances, which a government should encourage by means of protectionism

I posted the historical graph again.

Trade balance has always been central to economic prosperity. Running continuous and unsustainable trade deficits is a path to economic destruction.

To validate my statement above; we would need to carry out a historical analysis of all the economic powers before the USA, who held reserve currency status, focusing on their trade balance to see if it was a major element of their demise.

 

[over9k]

Nah no way, USD isn't going anywhere.



This graph is a similiar story basically everywhere - china, japan, wherever.



I've linked this from the most important point to watch from - you need only watch for ten mins to get an idea of why the world is going to continue using the USD for a long time yet.

However, I urge everyone to watch the following video in its entirety:

Of particular relevance to this discussion is from 21.00 onwards. With the USD accounting for about 95% of global trade and the other measly 5% really just being the euro, combine this with the united states soon being the only consumer market left and you have a world in which the USD isn't going anywhere.



The united states is also one of the least trading economies in the world as a percentage of GDP - but its trade security was never set up for its interests, it was set up to fight the cold war. Any trade benefits were just a bonus.

What I keep trying to say here is that the normal rules of macroeconomics, trade etc do not apply to america. I used to think the exact same way as you guys before this was all explained to me.

PLEASE watch the videos I linked.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Nah no way, USD isn't going anywhere.



This graph is a similiar story basically everywhere - china, japan, wherever.



I've linked this from the most important point to watch from - you need only watch for ten mins to get an idea of why the world is going to continue using the USD for a long time yet.

However, I urge everyone to watch the following video in its entirety:

Of particular relevance to this discussion is from 21.00 onwards. With the USD accounting for about 95% of global trade and the other measly 5% really just being the euro, combine this with the united states soon being the only consumer market left and you have a world in which the USD isn't going anywhere.



The united states is also one of the least trading economies in the world as a percentage of GDP - but its trade security was never set up for its interests, it was set up to fight the cold war. Any trade benefits were just a bonus.

What I keep trying to say here is that the normal rules of macroeconomics, trade etc do not apply to america. I used to think the exact same way as you guys before this was all explained to me.

PLEASE watch the videos I linked.

The USA was set-up on the ideals of the American Founding Fathers.

I am not sure why you believe that the USD reserve currency status is eternal? Currencies rise and fall, it is the nature of economics; such a statement is akin to believing that the economic boom and bust cycle can be avoided.

The best thing that the USA can do is to prepare for the inevitable demise of its currency, not stick their head in the sand.

It is world trade that keeps the power of the USD's reserve status. When the world stops trading in USD, it will lose its value.

 

[Smurf1976]

Covid19 is sxxit but the reaction is disproportionate now that we have figures.any death is a death too much but do we agree that more than 1pc of smokers die from smoking?
If so smoking is order of magnitude worse for health than covid-19
@Smurf1976 i trust you trust facts and numbers, we share that.
As is, right now, there is no justification to destroying our economy and having collateral deaths for that pretext.
Unless this is just that a pretext....something to blame for the fuckups accumulated since the GFC.

My understanding is that smoking kills ~50% of regular smokers and brings about misery and suffering to about half the rest. So a 75% chance that it stuffs you - no prizes for guessing I don't smoke (well, I'll likely emit smoke if I'm set on fire but that's not a routine occurrence thankfully).

That said, well I can choose to not smoke and thus avoid the serious hazards caused by it. It seems somewhat harder to avoid the risks of COVID-19 if it becomes widespread in the community. If it turned people bright green or something then that would make identification and avoidance far easier but unfortunately it doesn't do that.

I think part of the trouble here is that verified facts seem rather hard to make sense of. Eg Australia has a death rate of just under 1.5% versus over 11% in the US.

Assuming it's the same virus, then either the US health system truly is an absolute basket case or something's going on here?