Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[over9k]

Interesting thesis, but a lot of the asian market is soon about to vanish.

I can see the canada-usa connection though. As for how much that benefits britain is another matter however.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Interesting thesis, but a lot of the asian market is soon about to vanish.

I can see the canada-usa connection though.

It is logical for the UK to reestablish their strong historical Commonwealth ties with Australia, New Zealand and Canada. The potential is enormous with UK FDI in Australia: for example; we can build and establish an ethanol industry in FNQ and supply the UK directly with ethanol to power their economy.

Not sure why you think the Asian market is going to vanish; ASEAN are a huge consumer market with significant growth.

Hong Kong is in trouble, which will see massive capital and business flight to Singapore; perhaps Sydney and Tokyo will benefit somewhat, but Singapore is going to be the main beneficiary.

 

[Smurf1976]

EU's demographic pyramid is upside down, as is china's, the UK's and japan's. India's a big country but wealthy it is not.

That doesn't mean they aren't a big consumer though.

Not a growing one perhaps, but still a big consumer nonetheless.

Taking just one product, oil, well 80% of the world's consumption takes place outside the US.

 

[over9k]

It is logical for the UK to reestablish their strong historical Commonwealth ties with Australia, New Zealand and Canada. The potential is enormous with UK FDI in Australia: for example; we can build and establish an ethanol industry in FNQ and supply the UK directly with ethanol to power their economy.

Not sure why you think the Asian market is going to vanish; ASEAN are a huge consumer market with significant growth.

Hong Kong is in trouble, which will see massive capital and business flight to Singapore; perhaps Sydney and Tokyo will benefit somewhat, but Singapore is going to be the main beneficiary.

Simple demographics. Baby bust = no consumers. Lots of old farts = lots of cost of caring for them.

That doesn't mean they aren't a big consumer though.

Not a growing one perhaps, but still a big consumer nonetheless.

Taking just one product, oil, well 80% of the world's consumption takes place outside the US.

That is now. I'm talking about years from now.


50 years from now for example there will be 500 million fewer chinese people in the world. 500 million!

 

[Smurf1976]

It is logical for the UK to reestablish their strong historical Commonwealth ties with Australia, New Zealand and Canada

I take a only a casual interest in UK domestic news but there do seem to be definite moves in that direction from what's being reported about politics etc. They clearly seem to be looking to their historical ties once again at least in terms of what's being said.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Simple demographics. Baby bust = no consumers. Lots of old farts = lots of cost of caring for them.



That is now. I'm talking about years from now.


50 years from now for example there will be 500 million fewer chinese people in the world. 500 million!

What are you talking about? Look at the demographics of the ASEAN nations; look at Indonesia.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

I take a only a casual interest in UK domestic news but there do seem to be definite moves in that direction from what's being reported about politics etc. They clearly seem to be looking to their historical ties once again at least in terms of what's being said.

Absolutely; without a doubt. As an Australian, I welcome it.

 

[Smurf1976]

50 years from now for example there will be 500 million fewer chinese people in the world. 500 million!

That might be true but I was assuming that most investors would have a somewhat shorter timeframe than that.

In 50 years anything could happen. Go back 50 years and the entire concept of what you're doing right now would have made no sense at all to anyone back then for example given that the only electronics the average person owned was an AM radio, a turntable and a B&W TV.

 

[over9k]

What are you talking about? Look at the demographics of the ASEAN nations; look at Indonesia.

Sorry, I should have specified asia more generally. However, like the mention of india, size does not necessarily mean wealth.

The long & the short of it is that an export market needs to be found to replace china/japan. Indonesia is not going to become the world's workshop that china has been for the past 3 decades. India is the one that actually has the best shot IMO.

This is all ignoring the geopolitical instability that zeihan predicts however - do you reject that thesis? Because shots were fired/people were killed on the india-china border just this weekend.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Sorry, I should have specified asia more generally. However, like the mention of india, size does not necessarily mean wealth.

The long & the short of it is that an export market needs to be found to replace china/japan. Indonesia is not going to become the world's workshop that china has been for the past 3 decades. India is the one that actually has the best shot IMO.

This is all ignoring the geopolitical instability that zeihan predicts however - do you reject that thesis?

Sure; however I think that our Western corporations shouldn't put all their eggs in just India. We can look at demographic pyramids if you want to consider nations of interest, starting with India:


Indonesia

 

[over9k]

That's a good starting point - but there's obviously far more to consider, such as access to energy or the oceans, political environment, geography, etc etc.

I can't see a vast archipelago like the philippines becoming the world's workshop, but a land mass like india, that I can see. That workshop then needs a market to sell into too.

We're still talking about a three step brit-aus-india process though. What actually is britain going to sell to aus that aus is then going to process or engineer or refine further to sell into this hypothetical well-off india? Same goes for the britain-canada-america question that won't actually be a hypothetical.

Australia per se doesn't even sell anything other than raw commodities and food even now. Canada only sells oil.


Smurf - I was really just talking about 10 years from now. Chronos & I actually have a friendly wager on for 2030. I just mentioned the 50 year timeframe to demonstrate the immense shifts that a lot of countries are currently undergoing.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

That's a good starting point - but there's obviously far more to consider, such as access to energy or the oceans, political environment, geography, etc etc.

I can't see a vast archipelago like the philippines becoming the world's workshop, but a land mass like india, that I can see. That workshop then needs a market to sell into too.

We're still talking about a three step brit-aus-india process though. What actually is britain going to sell to aus that aus is then going to process or engineer or refine further to sell into this hypothetical well-off india? Same goes for the britain-canada-america question that won't actually be a hypothetical.

Australia per se doesn't even sell anything other than raw commodities and food even now. Canada only sells oil.


Smurf - I was really just talking about 10 years from now. Chronos & I actually have a friendly wager on for 2030. I just mentioned the 50 year timeframe to demonstrate the immense shifts that a lot of countries are currently undergoing.

The UK supplies Australia with the capital and skill/expertise, Australia supplies India with the resources and food, India supplies the world with the finished product like cheap textiles.

 

[over9k]

I can see capital flight (investment), but that's all, and there's nothing that's been stopping that before brexit or any kind of trade deal. Nothing's changed from that perspective.

The amount of actual *trade* between the countries is SFA.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

I can see capital flight (investment), but that's all, and there's nothing that's been stopping that before brexit or any kind of trade deal. Nothing's changed from that perspective.

The amount of actual *trade* between the countries is SFA.

The UK weren't allowed to negotiate trade deals with Australia, or any other nation, while they were shackled to the EU. The 10s of billions of pounds being poured into the EU each year can now be allocated to UK domestic and international development.

 

[over9k]

Sure, but I asked for what exactly and you basically said capital flight - which is a different thing.

What actual *trade* do you think is now going to occur?

 

[over9k]

Good discussion btw.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Sure, but I asked for what exactly and you basically said capital flight - which is a different thing.

What actual *trade* do you think is now going to occur?

The old EU funds will be used for UK innovation and industry, which will be unleashed domestically and internationally now. This will result in British capitalism flourishing throughout the world again. British companies will be supported by the UK government to invest domestically and abroad in nations like Australia, Canada and New Zealand; which will naturally induce trade between the nations.

 

[over9k]

Enough to make up the slack from whatever they lose out with reference the EU?

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Enough to make up the slack from whatever they lose out with reference the EU?

The UK has the Commonwealth support network of Australia, Canada and New Zealand. Combined we have enough resources, land, capital and skill/expertise to be a highly successful economic alliance.

 

[over9k]

I'm not entirely in disagreeance with your predictions reference the future, but enough to make up the difference from the losses from the EU I think is a hell of a stretch.

I think you're forgetting that aus, canada, nz all lost many of the same industries that the u.k did - many of them far more so. For example, I can't see U.K car companies or manufacturing coming to aus when aus doesn't even have a manufacturing sector any more.