Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[Chronos-Plutus]

My understanding is that smoking kills ~50% of regular smokers and brings about misery and suffering to about half the rest. So a 75% chance that it stuffs you - no prizes for guessing I don't smoke (well, I'll likely emit smoke if I'm set on fire but that's not a routine occurrence thankfully).

That said, well I can choose to not smoke and thus avoid the serious hazards caused by it. It seems somewhat harder to avoid the risks of COVID-19 if it becomes widespread in the community. If it turned people bright green or something then that would make identification and avoidance far easier but unfortunately it doesn't do that.

I think part of the trouble here is that verified facts seem rather hard to make sense of. Eg Australia has a death rate of just under 1.5% versus over 11% in the US.

Assuming it's the same virus, then either the US health system truly is an absolute basket case or something's going on here?

The medical evidence suggests so on the smoking and alcohol; however Winston Churchill smoked cigars and drank spirits everyday of his life.

 

[Smurf1976]

Looking more like an upside breakout in COVID-19 in the US.

19 June = 33,539 new cases in the US.

That's the highest since 1 May and the 8th highest day since the whole pandemic started, the highest being 39,072 on 24 April.

How the markets respond I don't know.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

[wayneL]

Re reserve status of USD.

I may be wrong but the US cemented it's status via the importance of oil and some strategic alliances (the Saudis primarily), vis a vis the petrodollar.

Cryptos may have changed everything however (plus the US's declining influence). Having failed to stymie bitcoin etc, the word is that CBs are desperate to climb onto that bandwagon... not bitcoin itself, but their own electronic currency whether or not on blockchain.

Reserve currencies tend to change because of conflict... war. Let's hope that first happen.

Disclaimer: these are basically fag ends I've managed to pick up following the macro folks, and may be way off... but does seem to tie in with CP's view.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Re reserve status of USD.

I may be wrong but the US cemented it's status via the importance of oil and some strategic alliances (the Saudis primarily), vis a vis the petrodollar.

Cryptos may have changed everything however (plus the US's declining influence). Having failed to stymie bitcoin etc, the word is that CBs are desperate to climb onto that bandwagon... not bitcoin itself, but their own electronic currency whether or not on blockchain.

Reserve currencies tend to change because of conflict... war. Let's hope that first happen.

Disclaimer: these are basically fag ends I've managed to pick up following the macro folks, and may be way off... but does seem to tie in with CP's view.

War is certainly a major constant element to consider when looking at the change in reserve currency; however, I think there is more to look at like the trajectory of GDP, government debt, international trade deficits etc.

I think an in-depth look at the Dutch Golden Age and its demise is worthwhile here. Was the Dutch economy running huge trade deficits by the late 17th/early18th century?

 

[over9k]

The USA was set-up on the ideals of the American Founding Fathers.

I am not sure why you believe that the USD reserve currency status is eternal? Currencies rise and fall, it is the nature of economics; such a statement is akin to believing that the economic boom and bust cycle can be avoided.

The best thing that the USA can do is to prepare for the inevitable demise of its currency, not stick their head in the sand.

It is world trade that keeps the power of the USD's reserve status. When the world stops trading in USD, it will lose its value.

Yes and the world is *not* going to stop trading in USD. No if's, no but's, it isn't.

Please watch the videos.


wayne - it was the fact that USA was the only thing left after ww2 aside from soviets and the imposition of the bretton-woods system combined with the USD being backed by gold.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Yes and the world is *not* going to stop trading in USD. No if's, no but's, it isn't.

Please watch the videos.


wayne - it was the fact that USA was the only thing left after ww2 aside from soviets and the imposition of the bretton-woods system combined with the USD being backed by gold.

There is a clear trajectory of USD reserve currency decline, noting a CNY and JPY reserve currency increase over the last few years. The USD reserve currency abandonment will take many decades, but the trajectory is obvious looking at the IMF data:

 

[wayneL]

Please watch the videos.

wayne - it was the fact that USA was the only thing left after ww2 aside from soviets and the imposition of the bretton-woods system combined with the USD being backed by gold.

I watched them. Great and interesting perspective, thanks.

In fairness, the macro dudes I've been listening to think the possibilities lie in a US centric "digital dollar"... Crypto electro dollar, or some such system, rather some foreign currency.

 

[moXJO]

I watched them. Great and interesting perspective, thanks.

In fairness, the macro dudes I've been listening to think the possibilities lie in a US centric "digital dollar"... Crypto electro dollar, or some such system, rather some foreign currency.

China was creating one apparently. They have a long term goal in mind of taking out the US.

 

[sptrawler]

I watched them. Great and interesting perspective, thanks.

In fairness, the macro dudes I've been listening to think the possibilities lie in a US centric "digital dollar"... Crypto electro dollar, or some such system, rather some foreign currency.

To be able to draw a genuine relativity between currencies and the underlying gdp supporting it, I would have thought it would in some way require a constant to a common currency, thsi is the problem with China not floating their currency.
So being no expert on the subject, I would have thought China will refuse to have the U.S dollar as the constant due to the abuse it has received.
Therefore to have a constant that all currencies agree to use as a base line, would require a neutral currency, which bring us back to a universal crypto currency maybe?
This would also enable the massive debt to be washed, in a transition, just a thought.

 

[over9k]

There is a clear trajectory of USD reserve currency decline, noting a CNY and JPY reserve currency increase over the last few years. The USD reserve currency abandonment will take many decades, but the trajectory is obvious looking at the IMF data:

View attachment 105084

This is going to change. There is a reason why so much cash is flowing into the USA now. The past few decades have not been "normal", historically speaking, and they are coming to a close.

Please watch the videos.

China was creating one apparently. They have a long term goal in mind of taking out the US.

Literally zero chance of this happening. Again, watching the videos I linked will explain why.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

This is going to change. There is a reason why so much cash is flowing into the USA now. The past few decades have not been "normal", historically speaking, and they are coming to a close.

Please watch the videos.



Literally zero chance of this happening. Again, watching the videos I linked will explain why.

OK I watched the videos. Peter is a good geopolitical strategist but his perspectives are clearly biased towards the USA.

I found it strange that the nation of Turkey were designated as a rising star on his World Stability Map; the nation is clearly far from stable, also Turkey are about to go to war with Egypt over Libya.

 

[over9k]

What bias or "unobjectivity" are you referencing specifically?

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

What bias or "unobjectivity" are you referencing specifically?

I don't really have time to critique his entire presentation; however the general feeling was that the USA will wipe the floor with the British on a trade deal, that the USA don't need the Canadians anymore.

Making these types of off-the-cuff remarks actually works against the USA.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

What bias or "unobjectivity" are you referencing specifically?

Then there is the comments that there is going to be a massive global brain drain and everyone is going to want to flock to the USA; example of German engineer being paid peanuts just to live in the USA.

It is slightly fantastical; however I did enjoy the watching it though.

 

[over9k]

Surely the U.S being the only significant consumer market left lends a tremendous amount of weight to the whole "everyone want access to our markets so we can bend them over the proverbial in exchange for it" argument?

Same goes with industry moving to USA to access said market and therefore that is where the jobs will be?

 

[Smurf1976]

Surely the U.S being the only significant consumer market left

The EU is a pretty big consumer then there's China, India and if we look at other countries like Japan, UK etc then collectively it's a big number.

Taking oil consumption as one measure, well 80% of it's not in the US (or 87% depending on which of the US Government's conflicting data is assumed to be correct - they state production at 13 million barrels per day, consumption at 20 million, and that they're self-sufficient. Um......).

 

[over9k]

EU's demographic pyramid is upside down, as is china's, the UK's and japan's. India's a big country but wealthy it is not.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Surely the U.S being the only significant consumer market left lends a tremendous amount of weight to the whole "everyone want access to our markets so we can bend them over the proverbial in exchange for it" argument?

Same goes with industry moving to USA to access said market and therefore that is where the jobs will be?

What I see as a major possibility is that there will be a Commonwealth revival with the UK reestablishing its strong historical ties with Australia, Canada and New Zealand. Australia is a great place for UK investment; we are a stable and friendly nation that is strategically and geographically well positioned to gain access into the high-growth Asian markets.

 

[over9k]

But asia's upside down as well?

Not to mention the necessity of trade security, which if you believe zeihan, is soon going to vanish. Remember back in december when the first shots were fired in the gulf and 8% of the world's oil supply was taken out in one strike?

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

But asia's upside down as well?

Not to mention the necessity of trade security, which if you believe zeihan, is soon going to vanish. Remember back in december when the first shots were fired in the gulf and 8% of the world's oil supply was taken out in one strike?

The UK is unshackling itself from the EU. London has essentially been the world's financial centre for centuries. The Commonwealth revival should see massive UK FDI into Australia, Canada and New Zealand. Australia and New Zealand are the springboard into Asia and Canada into the Americas.

The Empire Strikes Back old sport!