Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

The current new wave of coronavirus infection in Beijing is throwing a cat among the canaries. The degree to which the government is closing down the area and testing everyone in sight shows deep concern.

It seems to be a new strain of COVID 19 and seemingly more contagious and more virulent.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...break-travel-restricted-china-severe-measures

At least they appear to be telling the world what is happening and not trying to cover up the severity.
 
The current new wave of coronavirus infection in Beijing is throwing a cat among the canaries. The degree to which the government is closing down the area and testing everyone in sight shows deep concern.

It seems to be a new strain of COVID 19 and seemingly more contagious and more virulent.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...break-travel-restricted-china-severe-measures

I guess we can expect to see more mass outdoor sterilisation & citizens convulsing and dropping dead in the streets again.
 
I guess we can expect to see more mass outdoor sterilisation & citizens convulsing and dropping dead in the streets again.
Hopefully not and hopefully not with a direct connection between the sterilisation and the convulsing and dropping dead.:D

Clearly China wants to stop this outbreak before it becomes as disastrous as the Wuhan experience.
 
At least they appear to be telling the world what is happening and not trying to cover up the severity.

Interesting to compare this approach with Trump saying that the US they would have far fewer COVID infections if they just stopped testing people. :eek:
And tehn deciding to have a mass political rally to promote himself in a State that is seeing steep increases in COVID infections.
And of course anyone who comes to the rally has to sign away any right to sue if they fall sick.
Naturally..:)
 
The current new wave of coronavirus infection in Beijing is throwing a cat among the canaries. The degree to which the government is closing down the area and testing everyone in sight shows deep concern.

It seems to be a new strain of COVID 19 and seemingly more contagious and more virulent.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...break-travel-restricted-china-severe-measures
Yeah it was a reeeeally choppy day.

U.S didn't care about chinese virus cases over the weekend like AU did though - AU tanked on monday, U.S didn't.
 
Nah take a look at FMG, RIO and BHP - aside from one big dip, they were all flat early april-early/mid may and then took off. Iron ore took off late april/early may.

Also worth thinking about what made iron ore take off - precisely because of a realisation of a future collapse in brazilian supply perhaps?

The play for me is gold and silver developing and/or producing stocks. This is where I want to be for the next decade. At the moment I only hold 2 stocks; one an explorer in Peru, and the other a developer in Myanmar that will mine one of the world's largest silver mines with about ~30% silver leverage to their revenue based on the PFS.
 
Yeah it was a reeeeally choppy day.

U.S didn't care about chinese virus cases over the weekend like AU did though - AU tanked on monday, U.S didn't.

It was the FED, as usual, that stepped in to calm the markets with their announcements. The FED will never be able to raise rates now, and I mean absolutely never. They are completely backed into a corner of currency debasement, in perpetuity, so long as the FED is a functioning institution.
 
It was the FED, as usual, that stepped in to calm the markets with their announcements. The FED will never be able to raise rates now, and I mean absolutely never. They are completely backed into a corner of currency debasement, in perpetuity, so long as the FED is a functioning institution.
The thing is that with the USD being the world's trading/reserve currency, it doesn't even really debase it. The fact that it's the trading/reserve currency is precisely why they're able to get away with abusing it like they do.

And when you consider the upside down demographic nightmares that the rest of the world has, money's going to continue to flow into the U.S for decades yet on account of the rest of the world being an even worse option.

The 30 year bond rate is as low as it is for a reason.
 
Oh and it might be worth taking a crack at some gold miners - I made some tidy return in the GFC buying a couple of penny stock gold miners. Currently I hold DEG & MGV, will probably buy SLR again too as it's in a nice dip at the moment. If you run the graph out to max, you'll see how that yielded a 10-20 fold return if you bought around the gfc era & sold in the wake of it.
 
The thing is that with the USD being the world's trading/reserve currency, it doesn't even really debase it. The fact that it's the trading/reserve currency is precisely why they're able to get away with abusing it like they do.

And when you consider the upside down demographic nightmares that the rest of the world has, money's going to continue to flow into the U.S for decades yet on account of the rest of the world being an even worse option.

The 30 year bond rate is as low as it is for a reason.

Don't get me wrong, I actually support the USA here; however there is a major decoupling of economic and military power taking place. The USA have the most powerful military force this world has ever seen, yet the economic might of the USA is waning. As the economic might wanes, so does the currency.

We are talking about a multi-decade play, not a couple of years. That is why a portion of my assets are allocated to physical precious metal bullion, as I am only in my mid 30s.
 
Oh and it might be worth taking a crack at some gold miners - I made some tidy return in the GFC buying a couple of penny stock gold miners. Currently I hold DEG & MGV, will probably buy SLR again too as it's in a nice dip at the moment. If you run the graph out to max, you'll see how that yielded a 10-20 fold return if you bought around the gfc era & sold in the wake of it.
When did you get into DEG?

A decent pullback in the gold and silver miners looks to be on the cards. That will be the time to enter.
 
Chronus - nah not correct. I actually used to think this myself. Do yourself a favour and watch this video:

And then this one:



And then this one:



It's a half day of time, but it'll blow your freaking mind.

Also, I'm in my 30's too, but I'm one of those guys that's been trading since his teens. I kind of had no choice but to run penny stocks all those years ago!
 
Chronus - nah not correct. I actually used to think this myself. Do yourself a favour and watch this video:

And then this one:



And then this one:



It's a half day of time, but it'll blow your freaking mind.

Also, I'm in my 30's too, but I'm one of those guys that's been trading since his teens. I kind of had no choice but to run penny stocks all those years ago!



What's not correct buddy?

Don't just flick a few videos and tell me to watch them.
 
American economic power waning. Almost the entire rest of the planet (certainly all of the first world aside from AU & NZ) has upside down population pyramids - america's the only one even close to positive at roughly chimney shaped.

America has also been securing global trade since the end of ww2 and it's basically just no longer bothering because it's now oil independent and self reliant for absolutely everything, so the whole planet can burn and they won't even notice, hence no longer securing all the trade.

Not being funny/patronising here - watch the videos.
 
American economic power waning. Almost the entire rest of the planet (certainly all of the first world aside from AU & NZ) has upside down population pyramids - america's the only one even close to positive at roughly chimney shaped.

America has also been securing global trade since the end of ww2 and it's basically just no longer bothering because it's now oil independent and self reliant for absolutely everything, so the whole planet can burn and they won't even notice, hence no longer securing all the trade.

Not being funny/patronising here - watch the videos.

Patronising?

I wasn't thinking that at all.

I am happy to make a bet with you then. I will bet you 1 Perth Mint silver cast bar, that in 10 years, the USA will no longer be the largest economy in the world. Payment will be due in precisely 10 years from today.

Just post it to a dedicated PO BOX. Deal?
 
Sure. Or the equivalent in ETF. What size are we talking? You set on 10 years or do you want to bring the time horizon forward a bit?
 
The play for me is gold and silver developing and/or producing stocks. This is where I want to be for the next decade. At the moment I only hold 2 stocks; one an explorer in Peru, and the other a developer in Myanmar that will mine one of the world's largest silver mines with about ~30% silver leverage to their revenue based on the PFS.
Not MYL I hope.

gg
 
Lots of people were pushing gold and silver during the GFC, people bought in expecting price rises to 3-10k USD. That never happened.
All the while they kept trying to reassure themselves that they were correct as, in their minds, the society was enslaved to the markets - as if the markets were deities that made their own unbreakable rules.
Then reality hit.
Markets are enslaved to society. Humans decide how and why markets behave for the betterment of other humans.
 
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