Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[Chronos-Plutus]

Sure. Or the equivalent in ETF. What size are we talking? You set on 10 years or do you want to bring the time horizon forward a bit?

Excellent.

I would like to settle on physical silver 1kg Perth Mint cast bar; no ETF or transfer of securities. I am happy with the 10 year time horizon.

The only thing we need to agree on now is which entity will have the say on the US economic standing relative to the rest of the world.

Would you like the IMF, World Bank, or UN?

Will all of these entities have to have the USA as being dethroned, or just a majority, or just 1?

Also we are taking nominal GDP right? Not GDP PPP, because China are already ahead.

 

[over9k]

I say we go with majority verdict 2/3. Nominal gdp.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

I say we go with majority verdict 2/3. Nominal gdp.

I am happy to take all three or lose on this bet. That way there will be no push or stand-off.

 

[over9k]

Ok - we'll keep chatting about it in the other thread as it seems more related to the title.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Ok - we'll keep chatting about it in the other thread as it seems more related to the title.

Yeah, our bet is locked in now and we can let that stay on the other thread.

However, the virus is showing no signs of abating:


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

[sptrawler]

The current new wave of coronavirus infection in Beijing is throwing a cat among the canaries. The degree to which the government is closing down the area and testing everyone in sight shows deep concern.

It seems to be a new strain of COVID 19 and seemingly more contagious and more virulent.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...break-travel-restricted-china-severe-measures

As long as it doesn't have a higher mortality rate.

 

[basilio]

As long as it doesn't have a higher mortality rate.

Too early to tell yet.
In any case I think the new evidence that at least some people who fall severely ill with COVID 19 but eventually recover still have severe health problems.

 

[Smurf1976]

This is worth watching in my view, especially given it's from someone who knows what they're on about with economics and markets.

In short - he's saying it's not over, there's a lot of economic pain to come, and he's urging that Australia make much broader economic reform since what worked in the past isn't coming back anytime soon.

 

[sptrawler]

This is worth watching in my view, especially given it's from someone who knows what they're on about with economics and markets.

In short - he's saying it's not over, there's a lot of economic pain to come, and he's urging that Australia make much broader economic reform since what worked in the past isn't coming back anytime soon.

One comment I will make smurf, on the weekend I was talking to the owner of a large popular coffee shop and asked him when he will be fully opening the food side.
He said September when jobkeeper stops, the chef doesn't want to start yet.

 

[greggles]

COVID-19 may be under control in Australia and New Zealand but it's pretty clear from the statistics that it is not under control globally.

New daily infections hit 142,557 on 16 June, which appears to be close to double the amount of daily infections during April. This pandemic is far from over yet global markets do not appear to be reflecting that.

If I was a betting man, I would have my money on further catastrophic falls on global markets, similar to what we saw back in March, at some point in the next couple of months. I just don't think that the full longer term economic effects of this pandemic are being appreciated by those who have been jumping into the market in the last month.

2020 is going to be a very memorable year for global financial markets, but not in a good way.

 

[IFocus]

COVID-19 may be under control in Australia and New Zealand but it's pretty clear from the statistics that it is not under control globally.

New daily infections hit 142,557 on 16 June, which appears to be close to double the amount of daily infections during April. This pandemic is far from over yet global markets do not appear to be reflecting that.

If I was a betting man, I would have my money on further catastrophic falls on global markets, similar to what we saw back in March, at some point in the next couple of months. I just don't think that the full longer term economic effects of this pandemic are being appreciated by those who have been jumping into the market in the last month.

2020 is going to be a very memorable year for global financial markets, but not in a good way.

View attachment 104937

I am standing aside at the moment due to the conflict I find myself in.

! was in the next leg down camp but unfortunately so was everyone else so that was never going to come soon.

Market is rising strongly against the dire economic back ground for as far as can be reasonably be projected.

Central banks / governments action seem to be skewing fundamentals.

Still a reasonable amount of uncertainty regarding the virus.

The daily range is still quite high

What happens with all the debt?

US election year where is that going?

Hmmmm

 

[wayneL]

US election year where is that going?

Hmmmm

This skews everything until Nov 8

I've got a few things I'm trying to wind up and hope I can get it done before then.

 

[sptrawler]

I am standing aside at the moment due to the conflict I find myself in.

! was in the next leg down camp but unfortunately so was everyone else so that was never going to come soon.

Market is rising strongly against the dire economic back ground for as far as can be reasonably be projected.

Central banks / governments action seem to be skewing fundamentals.

Still a reasonable amount of uncertainty regarding the virus.

The daily range is still quite high

What happens with all the debt?

US election year where is that going?

Hmmmm

I'm with you and think the next 6 months will be interesting, I'm definitely thinking of lightening up before the reporting season, the debt thing doesn't worry me too much with fiat it is only numbers on the Gov spreadsheet.

 

[sptrawler]

Another winner in the corona virus saga.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...ent-on-lockdown-spending-20200618-p553rn.html

 

[Smurf1976]

Looking more like an upside breakout in COVID-19 in the US.

12 June - a higher high occurred.

14 - June - higher bottom than the previous bottom.

18 June - higher high than the 12 June high.

It's not a huge trend but on a chart it looks like we've made the lows and now turning up. 7 Day moving average bottomed on 9 June.

Data from here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

[sptrawler]

I personally am hoping for another surge, to lighten some of the positions taken in March, I'm kicking myself for not lightening up when we surged past 6,000 on the asx.
Left $20k on the table with VUK, I looked at the charts and said sell, the little green monster on my shoulder said "one more day". F$#k
I have to go and re read Skate's 'dump it here' thread.

 

[over9k]

Looking more like an upside breakout in COVID-19 in the US.

12 June - a higher high occurred.

14 - June - higher bottom than the previous bottom.

18 June - higher high than the 12 June high.

It's not a huge trend but on a chart it looks like we've made the lows and now turning up. 7 Day moving average bottomed on 9 June.

Data from here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I've been saying that they're going to see a 2nd wave for weeks now. If you don't have the jitters, you should.

I've torched all my non tech & etail positions. I hold ebay, amazon, paypal, zoom, skyworks, cisco, nvidia, docusign, zscaler, crowdstrike, and now a little bit of microsoft. I'm still on the fence about slack.

I'll be getting into pfizer as a long position eventually but that still has plenty of melt to go. Same with industrials like boeing & GE. Thor & winnebago are a nice bounce but I can see them in trouble once the virus data gets really bad and the old farts start changing their behaviour.

Lots of chop yet until the mask factories come online in august.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

I've been saying that they're going to see a 2nd wave for weeks now. If you don't have the jitters, you should.

I've torched all my non tech & etail positions. I hold ebay, amazon, paypal, zoom, skyworks, cisco, nvidia, docusign, zscaler, crowdstrike, and now a little bit of microsoft. I'm still on the fence about slack.

I'll be getting into pfizer as a long position eventually but that still has plenty of melt to go. Same with industrials like boeing & GE. Thor & winnebago are a nice bounce but I can see them in trouble once the virus data gets really bad and the old farts start changing their behaviour.

Lots of chop yet until the mask factories come online in august.

Massive virus spike in cases across the US Sun Belt states, particularly Florida and California.

 

[over9k]

Yeeeep. It's my AU holdings I'm jittery about - AU is not going to get a 2nd wave anything like USA (and several other countries) so I still have positions in AIA, DEG, KGN, MGV, QAN, STO, WEB, but I sold off FLT, SYD, & ORG last week as poor performers and nuked all my positions in FMG, RIO & BHP due to an anticipation of serious drops in response to infection rate spikes, particularly once more bad data comes out of china.

I plan on pumping everything from my sold positions into/back into the big three miners once I think the next dip we are now undeniably going to see has levelled out. Since selling, so far, there's been nothing but red (except for FLT) for what I held so I'm cautiously optimistic that I got my timing right, which is everything in a market this ridiculously volatile.

There's been lots of ugly virus data out this weekend already and there's another day to go yet.

 

[basilio]

First AFL player to return a positive COVID result today. Essendon's Coner Mckenna showed a postive result from a Friday test
The game against Melbourne on Sunday has been postponed (to when ??). All Essendon players are in iso for 48 hours . Essendon needs to see if any of the other players officials and associated families have been infected.

It has already had an impact on this weekends games. The ongoing risk is that the 2020 season which is already compromised could be broken if teams cannot compete.

The financial impact on the AFL and Seven Media and the clubs would be ........
https://www.afl.com.au/video/455319...dal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1592643764001