DYL - Deep Yellow

[sptrawler]

It sounds like the % of resource in ore might be too low to give a decent recovery rate.
I presume Mulga Rock is in Australia, the cost of mining ore is high.
The only exposure I have is to Paladin and they aren't doing great.
IMO uranium isn't yet on the big screen, that wont happen until the left accept that renewables don't have the grunt, how long that takes is anyone's guess.
To put in renewables takes time, to put in the storage to support the renewables takes longer, to finally acknowledge that enough can't be put in takes longer still.
So IMO those that have a producing mine, will be the ones the money flows to first, as the uptake of nuclear will be slow, initially.
Japan has only just overturned its decision to ban nuclear, they are at the forefront of realising options are very limited.

 

[Sean K]

This is uninspiring. Lucky they now have Mulga Rock. These U players doing DFS with a $65 POU assumption is just a waste of time, IMO. Is there another rock that companies do a DFS on 20% higher than spot? What gold explorer has recently done a PFS on POG at $2400? Grrrrrrr.

 

[MovingAverage]

I've nominated DYL for April's stock tipping comp. No idea what this company does but given their name I suspect they're into uranium. Reason for picking DYL is based entirely on the charts. Current price is around a longer-term support level and add to this both longer term and shorter term DYL appears to be oversold but price action past few weeks has been positive so hoping to capture the rebound. Quarterly report due out 18 April so fingers crossed.

 

[Sean K]

I've nominated DYL for April's stock tipping comp. No idea what this company does but given their name I suspect they're into uranium. Reason for picking DYL is based entirely on the charts. Current price is around a longer-term support level and add to this both longer term and shorter term DYL appears to be oversold but price action past few weeks has been positive so hoping to capture the rebound. Quarterly report due out 18 April so fingers crossed.

Good timing. Not sure what went on yesterday but the stock jumped on considerable volume. This 6mth 1hr chart doesn't show the jump for some reason but does on the 1yr. Something fishy.

 

[MovingAverage]

Good timing. Not sure what went on yesterday but the stock jumped on considerable volume. This 6mth 1hr chart doesn't show the jump for some reason but does on the 1yr. Something fishy.

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I've been watching DYL on the weekly chart for past month. Volume has steadily been increasing through 2023, but past three weeks, while higher than recent volume, it has been on the decline. Haven't looked closely but would like to see trend of trade numbers as opposed to volume. Wonder if people are expecting a solid quarterly report later this month? For what it's worth this morning's IAP is down a little over 3%, but that could turn around quickly on open.

 

[Sean K]

I've been watching DYL on the weekly chart for past month. Volume has steadily been increasing through 2023, but past three weeks, while higher than recent volume, it has been on the decline. Haven't looked closely but would like to see trend of trade numbers as opposed to volume. Wonder if people are expecting a solid quarterly report later this month? For what it's worth this morning's IAP is down a little over 3%, but that could turn around quickly on open.

I think the only thing really going to turn this around longer term is a sustained increase in the POU. The incentive price was $65 but with inflation I think opex increases will mean more like $70. Having said that McArthur River is restarting and Kazatamprom have increased output I think. But, for junior restarts with lower quality deposits they really need a significant jump in uranium.

Mulga Rock is now DYLs best asset IMO and they need to get their arse into gear to sort out if it's worth making it a multi mineral mine, or just focus on uranium. I'm a little skeptical as to why they've been diverted from just focussing on uranium. Perhaps it wasn't as good as they thought when they bought it.

 

[Sean K]

Drilling update out. It sounds like it's going to take a long time to make a decision to take any of these things into development. The management team can obviously do it, but it seems like they just want to keep drilling and drilling and drilling. Perhaps until the suitable POU is hit, or MOU for contracts and offtakes can be signed. Just sounds like there's a lot of work to be done. And, drilling again at Tumas after the DFS. I assume that will eventually mean an 'enhanced DFS' will have to be completed after this drilling has expanded the resource...

 

[MovingAverage]

Past few days have been horrendous for DYL--has dropped around 14%. Still, my focus is on the weekly chart and despite the sell off the past few days I'm still ok with how DYL looks on the weekly. I might have a different opinion early next week, but for now I'm remaining positive.

 

[Sean K]

These guys should change their name to deep turtle. Or, yellow glaciar. Something extremely show moving and most likely going to miss the next uranium bull market.

I'm not even sure if this project is viable. Isn't in Arnhem Land? The Voice won't be happy with that.

 

[peter2]

Leave the NT project to the local alligators. The flagship project is still the Tumas project in Namibia. The DFS is out and although the projected economics are good there are still some problems ahead. The DFS indicates capital costs and ongoing production costs have risen significantly since the Pre-Feasability Study (2021). I also notice their assumption relies on a Uranium price of US$65/lb. The U308 price remains lower.

The daily chart however shows an attractive reversal opportunity (buy >0.55, iSL 0.46) but I'll pass on this due to the uncertain economics.

For uranium trading opps I prefer PDN and BOE. Even URNM may be safer.

 

[Sean K]

Leave the NT project to the local alligators. The flagship project is still the Tumas project in Namibia. The DFS is out and although the projected economics are good there are still some problems ahead. The DFS indicates capital costs and ongoing production costs have risen significantly since the Pre-Feasability Study (2021). I also notice their assumption relies on a Uranium price of US$65/lb. The U308 price remains lower.

The daily chart however shows an attractive reversal opportunity (buy >0.55, iSL 0.46) but I'll pass on this due to the uncertain economics.

For uranium trading opps I prefer PDN and BOE. Even URNM may be safer.

Agree.

I only bought this on management and the expected U bull.

I haven’t changed my mind on that yet but have a five year investment horizon.

Took profits after the crazy jump some time ago, so not really interested in selling or adding.

BOE the best pick at the moment I think.

 

[Sean K]

DYL forced to make a statement saying they have no idea about Namibian Government about to take forced stakes in mining and petroleum companies, whatever that means. PDN even into a halt after been smashed. Surely no change to their mining royalty/ownership laws...disaster.

 

[finicky]

Whether or not the rumour's true, given likely persisting doubt on sovereign reliability, doesn't this make BOE luck of the bunch?

 

[Sean K]

Whether or not the rumour's true, given likely persisting doubt on sovereign reliability, doesn't this make BOE luck of the bunch?

Yes, BOE should be a winner from this if it eventuates. Lucky DYL now have Mulga Rock, but Tumas is supposed to be the 'flag ship'. I don't think the Mines Minister is actually suggesting the entire industry be nationalised but the country just have a % stake of projects like they do in many jurisdictions, plus tax. DYL should go into a halt as well until there's some clarity on this. The Mines MInister might have just been spit balling.

 

[Sean K]

Well, they keep adding resources, but it's all academic unless POU goes well over $65 for DYL. Could even be $75 now with increased capital and operating costs.

Plus, this is definitely in Arnhem Land. Not sure how they get a ML in there. Maybe it just comes down to royalties. This is pretty high grade though for Australia. It's Athabasca Basin type stuff.

Fingers crossed Mulga Rock turns into a multi-metallic deposit of some scale.

 

[Sean K]

This is slightly unusual. An announcement regarding positive drilling results, with no results actually announced. Hmmm

 

[Sean K]

Another announcement about drilling completed but no results announced. There's lots in the lab but they must have some results to announce to the market. Does this meet continuous disclosure requirements?? The provide all the drill hole details in the appendix but no actual results.

DFS not till Q2 24.

Hopefully the analysis of 'critical minerals' that can be extracted with the U is worth the effort. I imagine capex and opex is going to be significantly higher than the 'refreshed' Vimy DFS which was supposed to be a 'simple' mining plan. Building a plant(s) that's going to remove copper, nickel, cobalt, zinc, and rare earths, particularly neodymium and praseodymium - is going to probably double the capex and make it much more complicated. I wonder if it will be even worth it.

Interestingly, I can't find the original and refreshed DFS on DYL's web page or anywhere else except for some news articles.

 

[Sean K]

Uranium is generally having a good few months. DYL MC approaching $700m and they are at least 5 years from baking a yellow cake.

 

[Sean K]

Some uranium stocks have been in a stealth bull run for the past few months. DYL up 100% since Apr. MC just under $700m, but I can see it possibly approaching ATHs at this rate, especially if POU puts on a couple more dollars. MC will be closer to a billion by then which I'm not sure is justifiable for something so far away from producing. Will be donning a parachute around the red line I think.

 

[Sean K]

Looks like Tumas is going to be a very long life project, if the POU ever gets to the right price for JB to hit the go button. That's not likely until POU gets closer to $100 by the sounds of his last interview. He won't even get out of bed for $65 which was the incentive price just last year.

I'm not a big fan of Tumas. It's big, but relatively low grade compared to the big players. Kazakhstan and Canada have stuff 1% U3O8 and this is mostly 2-300ppm. The higher grade stuff around 400ppm in Tumas 3 might be mined one day, but some of the rest of the project is just dirt. Tubas Red Sand would barely register on a radiographers radiation tag.

I'm banking on JB's previous success to make something happen with this baby. I suppose he's already turned it into a big company and will probably break the $1b MC threshold one day which is about my exit point.