Dump it Here

[Skate]

Skate's Trading Rules
# If positions aren't executed at the open "the position stays open during the day" & purged after the close.

Important
"Never buy at the market", the position needs to be executed at the "Offer" or not at all.

The Buy Rules
1. The "Buy offer" is good for one day only
2. Never chase the price.
3. There are some positions that you will miss because of a gap-up
4. Positions not executed during the day need to be purged after the close
5. Do not "carry over" orders (positions need to be executed on the same day)
6. The buy rules are not flexible

The Sell Rules
1. Never sell before a signal is given
2. Sell in the pre-auction at the "Offer"
3. If the position is not sold in the pre-auction wait till 10:30 am for the market to settle
4. If the position is still open after 10:31 am - sell immediately "at the market"
5. The sell rules are not flexible

Skate.

 

[Skate]

The Exploration Analysis
Using the parameters from the above produces the analysis below. All I have to do is follow along. Buy the number of shares @ the "buy offer" to be placed in the "pre-auction". The cost column denotes the "maximum investment cost" of buying the number of shares at the "buy offer".



The Exploration Analysis
Using the parameters from the above produces the analysis below. All I have to do is follow along. Buy the number of shares @ the "buy offer" to be placed in the "pre-auction". The columns are in the same order as the CommBank order form. The colour coding denotes a buy or a sell. The exit colour denotes what generated the exit. In this case, it is a stale exit.




Today's exit signal
As a chart example, (ASX:ANN) wasn't purchased because it was excluded by "PositionScore". The (VWMA Strategy) is a 10-position, $10k PositionSize Strategy"



Skate.

 

[Skate]

Gambling
I say go for it if you can handle the worst-case scenario.


Skate.

 

[DaveDaGr8]

OMFG

That is going into my next safety meeting !!!

 

[Skate]

"Jeremiah was a prophet"
Was a new song pitched by "Three Dog Night" but frankly no one liked it. A member of the band said that we needed a "silly song" to help bring the band back together & that's how "Jeremiah was a Bullfrog" came about.

Let's feel good, before the markets open
After reading @bigdog's post a short while ago, a feel-good song might be the order of the day to cheer me up considering we are looking at a down day.



Skate.

 

[qldfrog]

"Jeremiah was a prophet"
Was a new song pitched by "Three Dog Night" but frankly no one liked it. A member of the band said that we needed a "silly song" to help bring the band back together & that's how "Jeremiah was a Bullfrog" came about.

Let's feel good, before the markets open
After reading @bigdog's post a short while ago, a feel-good song might be the order of the day to cheer me up considering we are looking at a down day.



Skate.

How should I take that song?

 

[Skate]

How should I take that song?

@qldfrog as a trend trader, I'm expecting to feel some pain today & listening to a great song will put me in the right mood to accept whatever comes my way. I'm having a good week & a big November, giving back some is expected. Basically, the song was to start my day on a positive note, putting me in a positive mood, that's the power of listening to a feel-good song.

Skate.

 

[qldfrog]

@qldfrog as a trend trader, I'm expecting to feel some pain today & listening to a great song will put me in the right mood to accept whatever comes my way. I'm having a good week & a big November, giving back some is expected. Basically, the song was to start my day on a positive note, putting me in a positive mood, that's the power of listening to a feel-good song.

Skate.

I just like the frog video with the wine bottles and was kidding there.
I felt the pain yesterday actually on the system and do not expect a great day today either but that is part of the game

 

[Skate]

"Hey Dad, can you do anything with $20k"
The phone call last night started out well but with my reply, his enthusiasm started to wane. Trading such a low amount & expecting a decent return is nearly impossible. Even the markets are having trouble finding a direction.

Without ideal conditions "trend trading" struggles.
"Okay, I'm sure the money will have a better chance with you than throwing it into the bank".
Don't be so sure, at least in the bank it won't devalue.
"Nah, do your best, I'll be happy, no matter the outcome".

So what do you want to trade?
"I'll leave it up to you".
As I've been posting recently about the (VWMA) indicator & the (20-period breakout strategy) I'll combine both strategies, adding a strong selective buy filter.
"That'll be the go"
Just to be clear, this strategy will only take positions when trading conditions improve, it may be a while before we buy anything.
"That's okay"
With so little money, the portfolio will be restricted to 4 positions.
"Whatever you think, I'll do the transfer"

If it's okay with you
I'll post your results in this thread as others starting off with a similar amount might be interested in how the trading pans out.
"Sure no problem, thanks Dad"
(call ended)

Skate.

 

[qldfrog]

T

"Hey Dad, can you do anything with $20k"
The phone call last night started out well but with my reply, his enthusiasm started to wane. Trading such a low amount & expecting a decent return is nearly impossible. Even the markets are having trouble finding a direction.

Without ideal conditions "trend trading" struggles.
"Okay, I'm sure the money will have a better chance with you than throwing it into the bank".
Don't be so sure, at least in the bank it won't devalue.
"Nah, do your best, I'll be happy, no matter the outcome".

So what do you want to trade?
"I'll leave it up to you".
As I've been posting recently about the (VWMA) indicator & the (20-period breakout strategy) I'll combine both strategies, adding a strong selective buy filter.
"That'll be the go"
Just to be clear, this strategy will only take positions when trading conditions improve, it may be a while before we buy anything.
"That's okay"
With so little money, the portfolio will be restricted to 4 positions.
"Whatever you think, I'll do the transfer"

If it's okay with you
I'll post your results in this thread as others starting off with a similar amount might be interested in how the trading pans out.
"Sure no problem, thanks Dad"
(call ended)

Skate.

The big issue i see is the 4 positions only.you add a lot of "luck" in the game
One black swan specific to one of your 4 positions and 25% of your assets go in smoke because of an explosion in a mine, or a revolution in 1 overseas assets..you see what i mean, something outside the market expected fluctuations
What about 8 positions but a cheaper broker?

 

[Skate]

The big issue i see is the 4 positions only.you add a lot of "luck" in the game

The Value Weighted Trend Trader Strategy (VWTT)
@qldfrog I understand where you are coming from but I'll stick with (4 X $5k) positions otherwise trading anything less & the commision becomes a strategy killer.

The VWTT Strategy
The Equity curve below is from a backtest since COVID-19 (1st of January 2020 to the 17th of November 2022)



Skate.

 

[Skate]

"luck"

@qldfrog, I've also slipped the word "luck" into a few of my posts as well but after reading a recent Twitter exchange, I'll reconsider doing so.

One of our members mentioned "Luck" in his Twitter post
He was quickly taken to task for using the word "Luck" in trading.

Trading psychology
Paula Webb is highly respected in the field of trading psychology & specialises in the field of "mental thought processes" & how they can be put into practice for those who want to create & sustain a rising equity curve.

Day Trading Psychology - Trading Mindset Mastery

Unlock the winning mindset for super traders with their expert guidance on day trading psychology. Learn how to overcome fears.

paulatwebb.com

https://twitter.com/_MarkDouglas_?lang=en

This is how the exchange panned out
It started with a simple statement, that I personally agree with, by the way.













Skate.

 

[Skate]

Mark Minervini
Quote of the day.



Skate.

 

[ducati916]

Something for the systems chaps to test:



jog on
duc

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Something for the systems chaps to test:

View attachment 149360

jog on
duc

Reminds me of Bulkowski.

For a long time he has maintained a collection of stats related to what he calls "busted patterns", and even "double busted patterns". So a falling wedge breaks out to the upside, adds a few ticks then starts falling - that's a busted pattern. He reckons a lot of busted patterns have better stats than normal patterns.

Also reminds me of "a failed sell signal is a good buy signal".

It makes perfect sense. If 90% of traders fail in the long term, then you can't afford to be buying the same patterns that the 90% are buying. If it's obvious, it's likely to bust.

 

[ducati916]

@qldfrog, I've also slipped the word "luck" into a few of my posts as well but after reading a recent Twitter exchange, I'll reconsider doing so.

One of our members mentioned "Luck" in his Twitter post
He was quickly taken to task for using the word "Luck" in trading.

Trading psychology
Paula Webb is highly respected in the field of trading psychology & specialises in the field of "mental thought processes" & how they can be put into practice for those who want to create & sustain a rising equity curve.

Day Trading Psychology - Trading Mindset Mastery

Unlock the winning mindset for super traders with their expert guidance on day trading psychology. Learn how to overcome fears.

paulatwebb.com

https://twitter.com/_MarkDouglas_?lang=en

This is how the exchange panned out
It started with a simple statement, that I personally agree with, by the way.

View attachment 149351

View attachment 149357

View attachment 149352

View attachment 149355

View attachment 149353

View attachment 149356

Skate.

This lady is a victim of naive empiricism or the induction problem. She is confusing the seeing of white swans with the nonexistence of black swans.

Luck (bad luck) exists, hidden by the errors of confirmation, narrative fallacies, the distortion of silent evidence and the over focus on well-defined sources of uncertainty (probability).

jog on
duc

 

[Skate]

Luck (bad luck) exists, hidden by the errors of confirmation, narrative fallacies, the distortion of silent evidence and the over focus on well-defined sources of uncertainty (probability).

With System Trading
We use precise mathematical formulas to enter a position & from that point on "everything is out of our control" with what happens to the price going forward.

Words & expressions
We use certain words to convey our emotions & feelings, such as "happy", sad, lucky, unlucky, angry & the list goes on. Paula Webb failed to realise that the word "Lucky" can also apply to emotions or actions during trading. The attack was directed because she perceived it was a failure of not having the correct trading mindset whereas it was used to describe things that happen outside of our control "when trading".

I now want to make a quote about being Happy
When having a bath, all the dwarves were feeling "Happy", so "Happy" got out.

I'll make this my "Quote of the Day"



Skate.

 

[Trendnomics]

Skate's Trading Rules
# If positions aren't executed at the open "the position stays open during the day" & purged after the close.

Important
"Never buy at the market", the position needs to be executed at the "Offer" or not at all.

Are your systems really so senstitive (i.e. non-robust), that not following these ultra-strict rules would have a significant negative impact? Have you measured the impact of not following these rules?

 

[Skate]

Are your systems really so senstitive (i.e. non-robust), that not following these ultra-strict rules would have a significant negative impact? Have you measured the impact of not following these rules?

@Trendnomics, these rules work for me, instead of criticising, you have the right to express an alternative view.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

@Trendnomics, these rules work for me, instead of criticising, you have the right to express an alternative view.

Skate.

Weekly Results
It's early days for my "Value Weighted Moving Average Weekly Strategy" (VWMA Strategy). I'm not planning on posting weekly updates as @qldfrog & @peter2 have that area covered.

I started 3 new strategies on Monday
As I decided to trade the "VWMA Weekly Strategy" it was the perfect time to start trading two of my other strategies at the same time. All three strategies are uncorrelated with $100k invested in each.

The weekly results


What I want to discuss
Is why "PositionSize" recalculation is so important to me, which I call "Pyramiding" my next bet size.

Closed profits & the odd dollars left over
The $7,383 left over from this week represents the "dollar stragglers" that have now been "allocated" to the next round of buys, equally dispersed, of course, divided into the number of outstanding positions required to fill the portfolio.

The VWMA Strategy weekly results
The stats below explains how this portfolio is traveling. The results at the moment look good but over time the stats will normalise as they settle down.






Simplicity works for me
My trading plan has only a few rules & "Pyramiding position sizing" is one of them. My trading method works for me by ensuring all available funds are constantly in the markets. Most fail to realise "pyramiding" works both ways. When trading is not going well, position sizing decreases because of compounded losses. In a nutshell, when times are good, being in profit I take advantage of these conditions & increase my next bet size.

"Pyramiding" refers to PositionSizing
Pyramiding "PositionSize" is my re-balancing technique for the reinvestment of profits & odd funds. "Pyramiding (re-balancing) my PositionSizes" every dollar (soldier) is put into the battle to fight the good fight. Of the $100k (10 X $10k) bets allocated to trading the "VWMA Strategy" last Monday, $7,383 was left over. Why?, because the "Offer Price" was in excess of the opening price.

I need to get settled at the opening price
Not knowing the opening price, the price I need to snag, it's critical that the investment, which includes commission never exceeds the $10k bets, as nobody wants to be caught short of funds.



In conclusion
These are the current 10 open positions



Skate.