Dump it Here
- Thread starter Skate
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Well, someone not happy
It appears I've offended someone who is on Twitter. Someone is making up fake Twitter accounts. What does it achieve? it doesn't make any sense?
My ASF avatar has been lifted from my profile page
It is a simple procedure to find out who has accessed my profile page. I'll request this information from @Joe Blow.
Skate.
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'tis a curious thing, that there exist some, oblivous to the fact, that, they have publically declared their personal ignorance, by thinking they've delivered an insult, when what they've actually delivered, is, in reality, an unintended compliment in disguise.
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@DaveDaGr8 Have you looked at my code yet?
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Nick, have you looked at mine? What do you think of Dave's analysis?
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@Gringotts Bank
I'll take a look now.
I'll take a look now.
I did look at it last week, but I haven't run anything on it to actually TEST for future leaks. It's still a work in progress and i'm trying to see how to make it work the best with looping code.
The 2 main actors inside loops are
Code:
x = y[i+1];
Code:
Buy[i-1] = 1;However, your code isn't doing either of those 2 things. So provided you' have some sort of trade delays it looks good to me.
The only 3 errors i found were
Code:
trailArray[ i ] = 0.8*H; <=== I assume this is H[ i ]But I'm guessing the forum software did that. If you click on the 3 dots ( more options ) and wrap code up in code blocks it won't try and format it.
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ahhh...got it. Thanks. Here it is again.
function flipper_func(trail)
{
trailArray[ 0 ] = C[ 0 ];
for( i = 1; i < BarCount; i++ )
{
prev = (round(100*(trailArray[ i - 1 ])))/100;
if (C[ i ] > prev AND C[ i - 1 ] > prev)
{
trailArray[ i ] = Max(prev,0.8*H[ i ]);
}
else if (C[ i ] < prev AND C[ i - 1 ] < prev)
{
trailArray[ i ] = Min(prev,1.2*L[ i ]);
}
else if (C[ i ] == prev AND C[ i - 1] < prev)
{
trailArray[ i ] = 0.8*H[i];
}
else if (C[ i ] == prev AND C[ i - 1 ] > prev)
{
trailArray[ i ] = 1.2*L[ i ];
}
else if (C[ i ] < prev AND C[ i] > 1.2*L [ i ])
{
trailArray[ i ] = 0.8*H[i];
}
else if (C[ i ] > prev AND C[ i] < 0.8*H [ i ])
{
trailArray[ i ] = 1.2*L[i];
}
else if (C[ i ] < prev AND C[ i - 1 ] > prev)
{
trailArray[ i ] = 1.2*L[ i ];
}
else if (C[ i ] > prev)
{
trailArray[ i ] = 0.8*H[ i ];
}
else if (C[ i ] < prev)
{
trailArray[ i ] = 1.2*L[ i ];
}
else
{
trailArray[ i ] = 1.2*L[ i ];
}
}
return trailArray;
}
trail = 1;
trailArray = flipper_func(trail);
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Stimulating ideas
As a member found my last series of posts on the (VWMA) indicator interesting I posted the results of today's trading to motivate him to look at this indicator in more depth. The "Dump it here" thread allows me to post to stimulate interest in systems that make money or have the potential to make money. I've used the VWMA indicator in some of my strategies with outstanding performance. As the percentage buy filter was on with the Index Filter also on, the strategy was worthy of a flutter today.
Today was a flat day but profitable
The reason I'm posting actual results is to display that the "VWMA % Strategy" has potential. Even though today was flat, there were positions worth pursuing.
Fridays VWMA signals
These are the signals from the VWMA Exploration Analysis from Friday. They are posted so anyone can chart the positions. Having the analysis displayed in the manner below makes trading effortless. Meaning it displays the (a) ASX code to buy, (b) the number of shares to buy, (c) the pre-auction buy offer price with (d) the total (maximum) investment to buy that position. The trading plan is just as lean having few rules.
Today's net profit
VWMA Open Positions
Positions condensed for clarity.
VWMA Open Positions
VWMA open positions expanded.
In Summary
I've posted today's results because a member found interest in my recent series of posts on the "VWMA indicator".
Skate.
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The posts below somewhat highlight the dangers of systematic trading
Just these two posts alone explain why system trading at some stage will fail. The information they hold belongs in the pure gold category. When you read posts by experienced members it's time to prick your ears & listen. After reading these comments it should be a wake-up call in making sure "the systems" that you are currently trading are still fit "for purpose" otherwise you may experience heavy losses & a world of pain until the penny drops.
In summary
If you believe the markets haven't changed, the trading environment certainly has.
Skate.
Just these two posts alone explain why system trading at some stage will fail. The information they hold belongs in the pure gold category. When you read posts by experienced members it's time to prick your ears & listen. After reading these comments it should be a wake-up call in making sure "the systems" that you are currently trading are still fit "for purpose" otherwise you may experience heavy losses & a world of pain until the penny drops.
In summary
If you believe the markets haven't changed, the trading environment certainly has.
Skate.
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For those interested in all things Crypto
This short 8-minute YouTube video explains why the FTX collapse is a very expensive lesson for the crypto ecosystem. Michael Saylor explains how instability in the crypto space could add to bitcoin’s strength. It should also be noted that Michael Saylor is never short of an answer to progress Bitcoin.
Skate.
This short 8-minute YouTube video explains why the FTX collapse is a very expensive lesson for the crypto ecosystem. Michael Saylor explains how instability in the crypto space could add to bitcoin’s strength. It should also be noted that Michael Saylor is never short of an answer to progress Bitcoin.
Skate.
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To me, robustness means having a system that:
1. Identifies different market regimes and trades accordingly, (eg. on/off index filter or dynamic position sizing)
2. Identifies factors in the market that are so deeply fundamental to the market that they must always function. eg. volatility expansion and contraction following each other like day and night.
I think if you have one or both of these, especially the second, you can mitigate the problems ducati mentions. Although exampes of the second are hard to find. What would be some other deeply fundamental factors that will always be functioning in the market?
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Price movements in the short term will always reflect the current sentiment (emotions) of the collective crowd that's currently involved in the market. Extreme emotions such as fear and greed will produce the largest price swings.
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What I think what we are talking about are tail events if you utilise a gaussian distribution.
Do I agree? Absolutely. In fact I would go further and state that not only withstand, but move to the enhanced position of profiting from the tail events.
Bedrock fundamentals: they are changing.
In 1971, the US went off of gold and onto the petro-dollar system. This provided a huge (unimaginable) advantage to the USD. The USD is managed by the Federal Reserve (a private bank) enabled by US legislation in 1913.
Since 1971 the market adage: 'Don't fight the Fed' has been the way to success in the markets.
So the Russian/Chinese and assorted allies, which are now de-dollarising, are breaking that US monopoly that has held world currencies in thrall and by extension (and most importantly) capital flows.
Given that the Arab world despise P. Biden, the move of OPEC+ to de-dollarise, removes the advantage that the US has enjoyed through the ability of the Fed. to dictate world monetary policy through the USD and Fed policy.
Markets (seem) not to have noticed fully, that the Fed. is finished. Paper, which has dominated since 1971, is about to be supplanted by real commodities, pre-dominantly energy.
From the above charts, you can see that there were 2 failed attempts at creating a Central Bank for the US. When they finally succeeded, of course it wasn't called a bank at all.
A free market, is a far more rangebound market (on aggregate) than a manipulated or controlled market. A controlled market is always inflationary as governments are profligate wasters of our paid taxes and always require more funding.
So the situation today is that the US must inflate. Or default. They will inflate (default over time) and to such an extent that they could actually destroy the USD as a currency, much as did the Weimar Republic, again, due to debt levels being unmanageable.
Inflation destroys the ability of businesses to efficiently allocate capital. Take 1 example: FIFO v LIFO accounting. In an inflationary environment, FIFO gives the impression of significant profitability. LIFO can result in losses or reduced margins. Of course the FIFO is illusion. Capital is likely being consumed.
So you say, well a mechanical system ignores financial statements, leaves that boring task to others and we just follow our model. Well of course the model is badly broken and results in tail events increasing as expected results are not even close to reality.
This results in a 1970's style market:
Rangebound.
Of course, eventually Triffin's paradox took hold, allowing the Fed via the USD and UST reserves world wide, to take control of capital flows. There have been different primary providers: Europe (abdicated by creating the Euro) Japan and most recently China. The last resort is now the Fed itself, which is of course the end game for USD.
jog on
duc
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| Sailing the Good ship HMAS Skate |
|---|
Well Done Captain Skate
I have updated and Verified each and every Starting Price---------------------- Friday 11th Nov 2022 OPEN logs
Well Done!
Apologies for the Logs below
I am hopeless with Computers , Copy and Paste
| Code | Purchase Date | Purchase Price ($) | Last ($) | Units | Market Value ($) | Profit / Loss ($) | Change (%) |  |  | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WGO | 11/11/2022 | 0.180 | 0.215 | 52547 | 11,297.605 | 1,839.145 | 19.44 |  |  | BUY | SELL |
AGY | 11/11/2022 | 0.620 | 0.700 | 15127 | 10,588.900 | 1,210.160 | 12.90 | | | BUY | SELL |
QPM | 11/11/2022 | 0.170 | 0.180 | 55466 | 9,983.880 | 554.660 | 5.88 |  | | BUY | SELL |
STA | 11/11/2022 | 0.435 | 0.455 | 22691 | 10,324.405 | 453.820 | 4.60 | | | BUY | SELL |
BGL | 11/11/2022 | 0.875 | 0.890 | 10735 | 9,554.150 | 161.025 | 1.71 | | | BUY | SELL |
RNU | 11/11/2022 | 0.265 | 0.265 | 36977 | 9,798.905 | 0.000 | 0.00 | | | BUY | SELL |
TNG | 11/11/2022 | 0.090 | 0.090 | 99840 | 8,985.600 | 0.000 | 0.00 | | | BUY | SELL |
ALG | 11/11/2022 | 0.580 | 0.570 | 16640 | 9,484.800 | -166.400 | -1.72 | | | BUY | SELL |
TIE | 11/11/2022 | 0.760 | 0.745 | 13136 | 9,786.320 | -197.040 | -1.97 | | | BUY | SELL |
SYA | 11/11/2022 | 0.255 | 0.235 | 38400 | 9,024.000 | -768.000 | -7.84 |  |  | BUY | SELL |
Total | 98,828.565 | 3,087.370 | 3.225 |
She was extremely kind to you on the open Friday the 11th Nov 2022
I have seen this before many times
BUT almost never for ME!
Last edited:
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Dear Captain,
as i understand it, the system analysis is performed on Friday and the actual purchase performed at open on Monday.
As such, the purchase date should be the 14/11 with the matching price: so for example SYA opened at .25 and TIE opened at .74-> the latter being a win so far, etc
Sorry ...
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Well, this is interesting
The crypto exchange FTX saga continues. According to the Financial Times, FTX had less than $US1 billion in liquid assets against $US9 billion in liabilities before it went bankrupt. With the collapse of the FTX exchange customers scrambled to withdraw around $US5 billion in funds amid rumours of a liquidity crisis. This is the equivalent of a run on a bank.
Alameda Research
Regulatory probes in the US have now turned their attention to the central role of Alameda & its 28-year-old CEO Caroline Ellison. The YouTube video below has gone viral because of the flippant response from Caroline Ellison. In the interview about Alameda’s trading, Caroline Ellison said she could “absolutely pull it off without my math degree”. “You use very little math, you use a lot of, like, elementary school math,” she said.
Risk management
Caroline Ellison goes on to say, “Being comfortable with risk is very important. We tend not to have things like stop-losses, I think those aren’t necessarily a great risk-management tool. I’m trying to think of a good example of a trade where I’ve lost a ton of money … well, I don’t know, I probably don’t want to go into specifics too much.”
Yield farming
Caroline Ellison said jokingly she was sceptical of yield farming which was a risky trading strategy that became one of Alameda’s biggest moneymakers. For those who don't know, Yield farming involves investing in cryptocurrencies that pay interest-rate-like rewards. Such tokens often have an initial run-up in price before crashing. For me, a lot of it was just about readjusting my expectations & being open to whatever happened. I think like every week or so something weirder than the previous week would happen.”
This YouTube video is a real eyeopener
When watching this short video clip, I'm sure you'll laugh along with Caroline unless you have money involved with the exchange.
Skate.
The crypto exchange FTX saga continues. According to the Financial Times, FTX had less than $US1 billion in liquid assets against $US9 billion in liabilities before it went bankrupt. With the collapse of the FTX exchange customers scrambled to withdraw around $US5 billion in funds amid rumours of a liquidity crisis. This is the equivalent of a run on a bank.
Alameda Research
Regulatory probes in the US have now turned their attention to the central role of Alameda & its 28-year-old CEO Caroline Ellison. The YouTube video below has gone viral because of the flippant response from Caroline Ellison. In the interview about Alameda’s trading, Caroline Ellison said she could “absolutely pull it off without my math degree”. “You use very little math, you use a lot of, like, elementary school math,” she said.
Risk management
Caroline Ellison goes on to say, “Being comfortable with risk is very important. We tend not to have things like stop-losses, I think those aren’t necessarily a great risk-management tool. I’m trying to think of a good example of a trade where I’ve lost a ton of money … well, I don’t know, I probably don’t want to go into specifics too much.”
Yield farming
Caroline Ellison said jokingly she was sceptical of yield farming which was a risky trading strategy that became one of Alameda’s biggest moneymakers. For those who don't know, Yield farming involves investing in cryptocurrencies that pay interest-rate-like rewards. Such tokens often have an initial run-up in price before crashing. For me, a lot of it was just about readjusting my expectations & being open to whatever happened. I think like every week or so something weirder than the previous week would happen.”
This YouTube video is a real eyeopener
When watching this short video clip, I'm sure you'll laugh along with Caroline unless you have money involved with the exchange.
Skate.
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This is a Mystery to me
What did Friday the 11th Pre-Market Calls mean on Captain Skates logs?
Did he Suggest opening price on Friday 11th or Monday 14th?
Only the Captain Skate himself can answer!
What did Friday the 11th Pre-Market Calls mean on Captain Skates logs?
Did he Suggest opening price on Friday 11th or Monday 14th?
Only the Captain Skate himself can answer!
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@Captain_Chaza over the last 4 years I've explained exactly how I trade as well as my trading rules.
I should have made this clearer from the get-go
I trade weekly systems with no manual interference. The buy & sell signals are triggered "after the close" on Friday. These signals are then placed in the pre-auction at the offer price that has a 3% premium to Friday's closing.
Just to confirm
All the signals are generated on Friday after the close. The signals are entered into Monday pre-auction. The date in the Amibroker Exploration Analysis is the date the report is generated. I generate the reports after the close on Friday & both, Buy & Sells are entered over the weekend waiting to snag the opening price on Monday. If the price "gaps" above the added premium of 3% I won't get settled. I don't chase the price.
Why after the close
All my research has been conducted under these test conditions. Trading the pre-auction using the (-/+ 3%) premium takes all the guesswork out of trying to time the purchase. Even with my conditional order placed in the pre-auction, you still run the risk that the position may fail to execute because of a gap-up. Something you have asked before.
I often repeat myself to reinforce a point
Sometimes reading it once it's hard to understand how I trade. Both entries & exits are always placed for Monday's pre-auction using the (+/- 3% premium). The 3% premium will either secure the opening price or it won't. A "buy order" not being executed has no consequence or bearing on the profitability of long-term strategy holding 10 or 20 positions in the portfolio.
Skate.
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