Dump it Here

[Skate]

To summarise (Monthly)
The few turnkey strategies promoted by "The Chartist" are sound in their methodology. Whether you elect to trade a "Monthly Momentum Strategy" that requires little "time & effort" might be the perfect strategy to have a go at trading, dipping a toe in to start.

To summarise (Daily or Weekly)
Trading a weekly strategy gives you additional "time to think" over a daily strategy because you make all your trading decisions over the weekend rather than being reactive to daily moves. Daily strategies are not for the faint-hearted as emotional pressure will constantly keep hitting you in the back of the head driving you to override your system during the day.

Day trading
If you are considering Day Trading then be "Very, Very, Careful" as there are sharks in them waters!

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Trading Crypto's
Now, this is my opinion, don't do it. Those beginning their trading journey should not start off trading cryptocurrencies. I'm amazed at the amount of enthusiasm that cryptocurrencies have. If enough believe crypto has value, I guess that's all it takes. I have trouble wrapping my head around that "nothing" has a tradable value. The (CIO) of Magellan, Hamish Douglass remarked that crypto is not an asset but is an illusion, imaginary & absolutely nothing. Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chairman Charlie Munger called bitcoin a "turd" that's “disgusting & contrary to the interests of civilization.” that's been "invented out of thin air”. (Their descriptions are in line with mine)

Bitcoin is built on the enthusiasm of others
Bitcoin has no intrinsic value but the adoption & investment in bitcoin shows no signs of letting up anytime soon. Bitcoin is currently in unchartered territory taking a pause before the next big move. I have no idea if that move will be down or up.

@ducati916 recently said
"Bitcoin is a fool's investment of those who trade hoping to offload it on someone dumber than them who will pay more for it".

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Stimulate discussion
I've made a lot of posts to stimulate members to open up & express their point of view, alternative trading ideas. I've found it hard to keep my posts short & snappy.

Trading is confusing for the best of us
I know from experience that trading can be extremely confusing when you are just starting out on your personal trading journey. New members visit our community looking for answers every day. With seasoned members, it's something to read, but when those members express alternative opinions or make a post on the subject matter it gives them something to think about on a deeper level.

Strategy Evaluation
I want to talk about the frustration of trying to evaluate a trading strategy. It's amazing the amount of effort & clarity of thinking that is required to choose a strategy knowing how trading can get "Batshit crazy" when your money is on the line. It's similar to the frustration you will experience when reading my next series of posts - that if you get to the end. Those who haven't visited for a while & catching up will certainly think "is it worth the effort". It's a sign of the times, "our tolerance for others & our attention span" is getting shorter as the years' pass.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Strategy Evaluation & Backtest Results
Even posting a series of backtests results can be tiresome while adding a level of frustration to others. Today we are conditioned to read & hear "sound bytes" with little interest in the full story. Frankly, with so much information it's little wonder that anyone has time or patience for anything more these days.

Today is one of those days
I'll be asking a simple question in regards to three different strategies. So you can make an informed decision the series of backtests will be from 1st July 2015, the "date I started trading", no further back. Also, you won't have you rely on one or two backtests to make an informed judgment or decision as I'll be uploading many reports.

It's a simple question
If you could only pick one strategy to trade which would it be? - I'm really not expecting many answers if any as it involves a bit of effort.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Strategy Development
But before I start uploading reports I want others to think about the extensive testing that goes into strategy development & the ongoing re-testing fine-tuning.

You can listen to too many
Reading various trading threads here at ASF sounds good in theory, but the problem is that getting so many different trading opinions & trading styles becomes confusing & in the end, you won't know what to believe thus putting a handbrake on your trading.

Using the ideas of others
Over time I've used the ideas of others to determine if there is an "edge" that I can garner for my style of trading. I spend all my day crunching numbers looking to ride off the "experience" of others.

Skate.

 

[divs4ever]

well i would have participated more , but i don't see 'trading ' as a talent of mine

i see trading as the buying and selling of shares to generate both a profit AND a regular income ( whereas i see an opportunity and decide to take it , or not )

so trading to 'pay the bills ' would be more accidental for me rather than predictable , add to that a capital gain is not my primary focus , more a consolation prize for making a disappointing choice

all that said. does NOT mean this thread hasn't provoked some extra thinking and added some potentially useful ideas to my skill set ( trying to escape a poor choice but still in profit , is not always so easy , and neither is picking a good time to dump an obvious tragic )

 

[Skate]

Why do we need a trading system?
I tend not to believe those who think they know what the future holds. Most traders can’t predict if the market will open higher or lower tomorrow let alone what a company’s price movement might do in the future.

Find your comfort level
With the passing of time, you will gain experience by reading various trading threads to work out what will work for you that suits your personality. The hardest part is finding yourself a setup you like, one that's simple you will follow according to your mindset. When you start trading you will not believe the voices in your head, the uncertainty that you will feel - this is the reason you need a trading strategy you can trust.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

this thread hasn't provoked some extra thinking and added some potentially useful ideas to my skill set

Crystal ball
Unfortunately, @divs4ever no one has a crystal ball, that's why I need an indication of what might happen or the probability of what might happen. I believe we can enhance our odds trading using a mathematical model rather than what I feel. Admittedly any strategy in the real market may behave differently from the backtest results but it's ultimately up to you to decide if you want to trade it on past performance or not.

Take the good with the bad
Every trader has bad weeks & good weeks but if the good weeks out way the bad "it's a good strategy" by my standards. I'll be including a variety of starting dates for the backtests of the three strategies in question because I know the starting date can have a big bearing on the performance of any strategy under evaluation. I'm just saying relying on the information is all we have in the development of any strategy. The more information & results you have will build confidence in taking the strategy to the next level of development.

Skate.

 

[divs4ever]

It's a simple question
If you could only pick one strategy to trade which would it be? - I'm really not expecting many answers if any as it involves a bit of effort.

i have a very crude 'channel trading system ' which will NOT suit many simply because trading moves might not happen for years

and i can't really call it 'successful ' because only one of the three targeted stocks selected has generated the desired moves

'failure ' 1 is BPT the original target price was sub 80c a share which took 3 years to get but BPT continued to plummet so was compelled to 'average down ' the lowest buy was just 40 cents five months later .. which left me uncomfortably over-weight as the stock recovered , so i recovered the invested cash ' so now the profits are running but now my new buy target is set at sub 60 cents ( does anyone want to hold their breath waiting for that )

so BPT a successful foray but the trading plan looks to be in tatters

' failure ' 2 SUN just doesn't hit my buy/reduce targets often enough to make to effort of watching worth it , if it wasn't for the DRP participation i would call it a bust ( or at best break-even )

' success ( ??? ) ' QBE the plan was buy below $11 and sell HALF the last buy(s) above $14 and participate in the DRP , now price action since 2013 has made the buy target of sub $10 ( more likely sub $9 since 2019 ) and REDUCE above $13 ( am still in the DRP)

and courtesy of the DRP additions this has been chugging along while my average share cost gets some downward pressure

HOWEVER the beauty of this plan ( if you select the right stock ) is you can leave the orders in for months/years and let the volatility work for you ( but ALWAYS read the anns that trigger the tumbles , eventually one will be scary enough to make you bail , completely )

DYOR

 

[Skate]

Looking for long term trends
Paper trading has the ability to qualify long-term trends. The issue with long-term trending systems is that they are hard to qualify as the returns could be down to sheer luck as this just adds complexities to evaluate a strategy correctly.

The backtest period is important
We have canvased the ideal of what length a backtest should be used to have meaningful results. Others have posted their views which is completely opposite to mine. As with @qldfrog I'm a believer in shorter-term backtests to evaluate the metrics as IMHO its usefulness diminishes the longer the backtest period. Performance results can be like “chalk & cheese” when conducting an evaluation over massive time frames. Performance observed in the past may offer little insight into the strategy performance in the short term. All I'm saying, markets have changed over the last 20 years.

Skate.

 

[divs4ever]

Crystal ball
Unfortunately, @divs4ever no one has a crystal ball, that's why I need an indication of what might happen or the probability of what might happen. I believe we can enhance our odds trading using a mathematical model rather than what I feel. Admittedly any strategy in the real market may behave differently from the backtest results but it's ultimately up to you to decide if you want to trade it on past performance or not.

Take the good with the bad
Every trader has bad weeks & good weeks but if the good weeks out way the bad "it's a good strategy" by my standards. I'll be including a variety of starting dates for the backtests of the three strategies in question because I know the starting date can have a big bearing on the performance of any strategy under evaluation. I'm just saying relying on the information is all we have in the development of any strategy. The more information & results you have will build confidence in taking the strategy to the next level of development.

Skate.

oh , i inherited a crystal ball , but sadly i have never been able to get it to work , and my 1980's pocket calculator has been mega-useful in double-checking my mental arithmetic , so for a 'learning-by-the seat-of-his-pants ' novice , the outcome so far hasn't been that bad
BUT picking the good times to BUY and SELL are mega-important for all novices regardless of strategy chosen , so learn to eyeball those charts and graphs and understand the jargon and the math

the market is very capable distracting you from the correct timing of your moves ( which why i don't mind orders sitting in the market for weeks/months WAITING , it is easier to cancel an order than calculate and make a new order in the heat of the frenzy )

and yes don't forget the boring bit , go back to the moves you have made and try to learn the lessons from what went right AND wrong

 

[Skate]

Strategy evaluation
I'm not convinced that one strategy is better than the other without gathering more information. Indeed, even strategies with nearly identical construction rules & long-run average returns can deviate meaningfully through time. The lesson for mechanical system traders is to remain cautious when interpreting past performance results.

Back to the simple question
If you could only pick one strategy to trade which would it be? - I'm really not expecting many answers if any as it involves a bit of effort.

Strategies in question
(a) The Platinum Strategy
(b) The WTT Strategy
(c) The BBO Strategy

Thinking about it
When you start trading any strategy doubt will always creep questioning if you have made the correct choice in trading "The Platinum Strategy" over the others. At least the WTT Strategy & BBO Strategy are well tested & the methodology is sound, whereas "The Platinum Strategy" is yet to be tested.

The backtest period
1st July 2015 to 30th June 2021. The period from 2015 falls in line with the period I have been trading.



Skate.

 

[Skate]

Back to the simple question
If you could only pick one strategy to trade which would it be? - I'm really not expecting many answers if any as it involves a bit of effort.

Strategies in question
(a) The Platinum Strategy
(b) The WTT Strategy
(c) The BBO Strategy

The backtest period
1st July 2017 to 30th June 2021 (4 complete financial years).



Skate.

 

[Skate]

Back to the simple question
If you could only pick one strategy to trade which would it be? - I'm really not expecting many answers if any as it involves a bit of effort.

Strategies in question
(a) The Platinum Strategy
(b) The WTT Strategy
(c) The BBO Strategy

Let's just look at one financial year in isolation
The backtest period is the 2019/2020 financial year. This period encompasses the COVID flash crash.



Skate.

 

[Skate]

Back to the simple question
If you could only pick one strategy to trade which would it be? - I'm really not expecting many answers if any as it involves a bit of effort.

Strategies in question
(a) The Platinum Strategy
(b) The WTT Strategy
(c) The BBO Strategy

Let's look at the last financial year
The backtest period is the 2020/2021 financial year. This is the period where most struggled, not all but some.



Skate.

 

[Skate]

Back to the simple question
If you could only pick one strategy to trade which would it be? - I'm really not expecting many answers if any as it involves a bit of effort.

Strategies in question
(a) The Platinum Strategy
(b) The WTT Strategy
(c) The BBO Strategy

Let's feel the frustration of multiple charts
The next series of backtests is to display the difference that can occur when starting a new strategy. The next 11 posts will depict the results if we started the strategy at the start of each month in ascending order. Looking at a multitude of results can be confusing & contradictive at the same time. No wonder new to mechanical systems trading finds it difficult at first.

Backtest Period #1
1st January to today



Skate.

 

[Skate]

Backtest Period #2
1st February to today.



Skate.

 

[Skate]

Backtest Period #3
1st March 2021 to today.



Skate.

 

[Skate]

Backtest Period #4
1st April 2021 to today.



Skate.

 

[Skate]

Backtest Period #5
1st May 2021 to today.



Skate.