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Skate said:
The previous posts confirmed that you had not followed your trading strategy but over-ridden your strategy with more information. It was a way to explain that nothing is set in stone. When we are talking about "strategy improvements" that's a different kettle of fish & you shouldn't confuse the two.
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If you look through my historical posts again you will see I have always said it is extremely easy to simply suggest you just keep plowing through your system trades based on sim results but it is a whole other thing to actually place loosing trade after loosing trade when you're live trading with money on the line--system trading can really mess with your head.


Skate said:
Bingo, that's my point
Strategy improvements never cease, why? because market conditions change & so should your strategy. I made this remark in my previous posts.

Also, "Kudos to you" for finding improvements on non-recent data. By the way, that's harder said than done & highly unusual.

Skate.
Click to expand...

Again, look through my historical posts and I have never advocated a "set and forget mentality"--but again I'm, not suggesting decisions be made on the basis of a few hundred or less historical trades--that is not enough to get a good understanding of your system.
 
Skate said:
Is turtle trading past its prime?
Turtle trading was innovative in the 1980s, but wouldn’t be effective now. Inflation was higher & there were more solid trades to follow in the 1980s than there are now. Dennis noted that mental discipline was just as important to turtle trading as following his rules.

Parker also said that the risk management strategy can be tweaked to adapt to today’s stock market
“We have a risk management concept that overlays the portfolio that’s based on marginal utility. So, we’re harvesting profits along the way which is very different than what we did learn in the original Turtle trading programs. We’re still doing the same things, just a little bit differently than we used to,” said Parker.

Skate.
Click to expand...

Originally, they would pyramid into their positions (increasing exposure) as price went in their favour. Clearly now, quite a different strategy.

jog on
duc
 
Seems to be lots of conjecture about whether market dynamics have changed in recent times, but I'm not so sure about that and at least based on a high level look of a couple of key market characteristics I'm not convinced todays market is any different to the market of 10 years ago. Being a system trader my comments are based on characteristics around technical indicators and I am not in the least bit interested in changes in fundamentals (don't trade based on them).

Below is the chart of XAO over the past 20 or so years. Let's start by looking at volume. Sure, since early 2020 we've seen a jump in volume and a lot of that is the big Covid sell off and the subsequent piling in of money trying to capture the post Covid rebound. But this volume is nothing we haven't seen before. Just look back at the 2008 through to 2012 period--higher volumes. So let's take a look at volatility--seems like there are lots of folks running around saying the market is more volatile than ever, but is it really? Looking at ATR as a proxy for volatility again we saw a rapid increase in volatility in early 2020 and that can be put down to the rapid Covid sell off, but after that sell off the volatility has continued to drop off. Yup, we've seen this volatility before. Just look at that high volatility and slow decline from around late 2008. Our current volatility is back to 2010 levels.

As far as price action goes, the XAO has been tracking sideways since July of this year, but that's nothing unusual and you don't need to be a skilled chartist to see sideways movement of XAO has happened on many occasions 10 years or more ago.

So I'm not entirely convinced (based on this cursory review of the market) our current market conditions are that dissimilar to that which we experienced 10/12 years ago. Clearly the XAO is at all time highs but several key old characteristics appear to be playing out again.

Market Dynamics.JPG
 
divs4ever said:
maybe it was because i was an investing novice 10 years back , but i suggest the markets are a LOT scarier now

higher yes , but also disproportionately riskier
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Maybe markets are a lot scarier now because you have more experience and better understanding of the market--as a novice ignorance is sometimes bliss
 
LUCK: I agree that the word "luck" can be applied to individual decisions, results and short term trading. However in the longer term the positive expectancy (profits) that my methodology generates is not due to luck. I disagreed that luck plays a part in my trading performance in the medium and longer periods. I didn't disagree (I agree) that luck can be applied to individual events.

Concerning the back tests of the three strategies. I agree with @MovingAverage that there isn't enough information to make an informed decision as to which is my preferred strategy. My main reason is that I'm unaware of the details of each strategy. As a part time analyst I yearn for more details because I can only develop confidence in a system if I know all the strategy details. I'll never buy a "black-box" strategy no matter how good the back-tests are. Knowing the details is an important aspect of my personality in regard to trading systems.

I do want to highlight one 'flaw" with the short term back-tests displayed earlier. It's my understanding that the Platinum System includes a market filter. When this filter turns on it tightens the trailing stops and prevents new entries. I don't believe that we can properly evaluate the effectiveness of a system with a market filter if the back-test period doesn't include one or more periods that turns the filter on.
 
peter2 said:
Just between you and I @Skate. Looking through the results of all the back-tests that you've posted, there's been one constant that I believe is responsible for the many outstanding profits.

I'm not going to reveal it here. I'll PM you with my opinion.
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Mr @peter2, can we narrow " results of all the back-tests that you've posted" to the last 3 recent BT posted..[Disclaimer:I have not analyzed these yet ]or more wide and generic..
Or is this too specific?
 
peter2 said:
Just between you and I @Skate. Looking through the results of all the back-tests that you've posted, there's been one constant that I believe is responsible for the many outstanding profits.

I'm not going to reveal it here. I'll PM you with my opinion.
Click to expand...
But, but, but......! :)
GRrrrrrrrrr!
 
LOL, sorry for the teaser. You know I can't resist one occasionally to stimulate some discussion.

We all know that @Skate 's main strategy is trend trading. They may have slightly different entries but all his systems are trend following in nature. This is important, if you want to make the big bucks trade the trends.

I'm not going to reveal what I think is @Skate 's system's secret sauce. I think you all know it already but I'm not so sure that you realise the importance of it.

What type of stocks do we need to include in our trading universe to make the huge percentage gains that we often see in @Skate's back-tests? How frequent are these big percentage gains? Are they frequent enough so that a back-test can produce an above market performance no matter when it's started?

The secret sauce is only one element of a great dish. A dish's main ingredient is the hero but the secret sauce elevates the experience. IMO without this secret sauce @Skate's systems would produce performances slightly above the market and not be as transcendent as they seem.
 
peter2 said:
I'm considering making some adjustments to my trading methodology. There may not be as many trading opportunities as we like. Have you noticed that @Skate 's Platinum System now only carries 10 positions instead of 20? I may trade fewer positions also. So, in order to get the performance I desire I may have to risk a little more in each trade. I'm probably going to be quicker on the exits as well.
Click to expand...

Let's talk about trading methodology
We tend to trade in a similar way over & over again & we rarely deviate from the recipe we have traded in the past.

In the past
I've traded up to 53 positions in a portfolio & explained why I traded such large numbers. @peter2 to his credit gave the idea ago, thinking it wouldn't work but to his amazement, it did. Peter gave a great explanation why trading such a large number of positions was advantageous "at the time". If you trade a large number of positions in your portfolio today it would end in heartbreak.

Why concentrate only on 10 positions?
In these trying trading conditions, you need to keep your positions tight & only select the positions that can have a decent bonce through the power of percentages as we are seeking a percentage increase & not a currency increase. Having increased bets concentrated on a few positions insures when you have a "win" you have a "decent win". It's also wise to reduce the number of positions & exit the suckers that don't perform quick smart. I've adapted to this new trading environment & so should you. Peter eloquently expressed this in his last post of which is quoted above.

Skate.
 
Last edited:
When do we exit a position?
I could make a series of lengthy posts that would become repetitive in nature or I can post a capture of a 365 day backtest of "The Platinum Strategy" as a picture paints a thousand words. Profits can build & dissipate quickly so with the current trading environment it's advantageous to grab profits while they are on offer. A few years ago I wouldn't have considered doing this as my research back then proved it was not the correct exit strategy to employ.

Exploration Mode
I have 5 different exploration modes. Sometimes additional reports allow you to look at the same information from different angles as trading "depends" on information from a variety of sources, let alone being able to debug your code efficently.

(1) Basic - to give basic information, the information that I need in a condensed format
(2) Custom - a little more detailed
(3) Verbose - more information than are needed but still an important format
(4) Debug - with experience at times coding needs to "Debug" to find faults
(5) All - What the heck, at times I'll throw them all up on the one analysis. Sometimes "more" is better.

365 day Backtest.jpg

Skate.
 

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