Dump it Here

[Skate]

The intention of the code wasn't to be a profit taker, ill put that down to good luck .

@othmana86 let's not mention the word "luck" again as it flames a different range of opinions. Let's use the words "good fortune" instead of "luck" as it might be more palatable to some. In hindsight, I should have selected a more appropriate word to express my opinion. I'm glad you & @DaveTrade have shifted the conversation to trading & trading ideas as it gives me a segue to change the conversation.

Trading ideas
Profiting from the stock market is exceedingly difficult to do consistently over a long period of time. We all have opinions of what works & what doesn't when it comes to trading but always find it difficult to have the confidence in putting our money on the line trading our own idea(s). Very few people succeed in this process as the learning curve is too steep, time-consuming & at times hard to implement with confidence. Outsourcing the process as @Cam019 & @Warr87 have done is an alternative to going it alone.

You need a certain amount of "Good Fortune"
No matter how smart we are, or how hard we work, we will regularly be hit by unforeseen, unknowable new information. No matter the amount of backtesting can foresee unpredictable & unpreventable events as @qldfrog often refers to. Skilled traders are nothing more than calculated risk-takers.

Timing is critical at each stage of trading
Your trading ability comes from within by executing your trading plan consistently with confidence. Getting the entry & exit timing correct is the bread & butter of a mechanical system trader. It also pays to remember with system trading there are no "good trades" or "bad trades". There are only trades that "work" & trades that "don't".

Skate.

 

[MovingAverage]

@othmana86 let's not mention the word "luck" again as it flames a different range of opinions. Let's use the words "good fortune" instead of "luck" as it might be more palatable to some. In hindsight, I should have selected a more appropriate word to express my opinion. I'm glad you & @DaveTrade have shifted the conversation to trading & trading ideas as it gives me a segue to change the conversation.

Come on--doesn't trigger me does it

Can you tell there isn't much going on in the market for me today

 

[Skate]

Cutting trades early is the secret of being a profitable trader
It's a perfect time to remember that trading is not always a bed of roses, losing streaks are inevitable. Even after you have learned to trade successfully, you will still take your hits. @peter2 is the master of "cutting trades" where @othmana86 recently found out by accident that cutting trades using a "Take Profit" stop has benefits. Grabbing profits before they dissolve is certainly a skill.

Trading is a very emotional experience
At times these emotions can sometimes sabotage the best of plans, even when trading is traveling nicely we fail to capitalise by not grabbing profits on offer. Most losses can be attributed to not "taking profits" or not "cutting your losses" at the appropriate time. There are other times when losses can be attributed to your inability to follow your trading plan. Trading is simply buying a position in the hope of offloading it to someone else at a higher price than it was brought. Sometimes it works, sometimes times it doesn't.

Skate.

 

[Sir Burr]

Grabbing profits before they dissolve is certainly a skill

Crossing an upper bollinger band or X times ATR.

 

[Sir Burr]

strategies that can be purchased knowing full well they have all been professionally coded with backtest results for all to see.

Hi Skate, not all may be sunshine and roses.

Once bought, there was no guarantee of any updates if errors are found.

After purchase, maybe a year later found issues trading live and the code had been updated without my knowledge. This happened twice with the same code over a few years. If I had said nothing I would not have received the updated code. Having knowledge of Amibroker coding and being able to pick up problems is still something required as far as I'm concerned.

I believe that code (think I paid $660) has been removed.

 

[barney]

You need a certain amount of "Good Fortune"
Timing is critical at each stage of trading

Been off the air for a while, but just bounced in on your last post @Skate (sorry no time to read the bulk of the last few pages unfortunately)

As always, good advice for a bearded bush-ranger

I'm 100% discretionary, so my two bobs worth is possibly not often applicable for this thread, however,

Your two short statements above are important whether we trade with tea leaves or with a science degree.

Luck is definitely underrated (tick)

And timing (which is and should be also directly related to your position size and trading style)

Is, as you say, very important (tick)

Cheers M8 ... and I'll disappear into my rabbit hole again now

 

[Skate]

After purchase, maybe a year later found issues trading live and the code had been updated without my knowledge. This happened twice with the same code over a few years. If I had said nothing I would not have received the updated code.

@Sir Burr by posting your statement again (in which I'm in total agreement BTW) I hope gives added validity to an issue that purchases may not be aware of. I'm going from memory but I'm sure you have raised this issue years ago (without doing a search, I going from memory).

Caveat emptor
Yes, you are left vulnerable trading (with your money, I should say) when a strategy that you have purchased in good faith has been found with errors or omissions. Take it from me, you are contactable & it's should be done automatically as a matter of good faith.

I hope code sellers are reading this
I very much doubt they are reading this post but their "in-action" is their modus operandi. Amibroker afl code is "open source" & necessitates signing a non-disclosure statement. With all agreements, there is a history of purchase. All I'm saying is "if sellers want to hold credibility" they have a responsibility & ongoing commitment to the purchaser for error & omissions. Updating the strategy with "improvements" is another "kettle of fish" altogether. By keeping in touch with customers it facilitates another revenue stream for them to take advantage of.

Skate.

 

[Sir Burr]

I'm going from memory but I'm sure you have raised this issue years ago (without doing a search, I going from memory).

Hi Skate, fairly sure it was after Interstellar

 

[Skate]

From my first post
@Sir Burr I wasn't going to do a follow-up post but until I do I can't clear the image.

Let it go
Sometimes you can't let somethings go till you dump it on paper

Memorizing important information
I take pride in having a good memory & have a habit of posting information from a memory snapshot. Since your last post, it's been bugging me that something didn't quite gel. I've just now worked it out. It didn't gel because your avatar was different at the time you posted back in March 2019.

Avatar
Back then your avatar was of an "Elephant" playing in tropical green crystal clear waters with tropical hills in the background with a hint of beach sand at the side. After saying this it's only the "head of an Elephant poking out of the water". The older I get my recall can at times be a bit fuzzy.

Here is the post

Nick Radge's Weekend Trend Trader

Quick bump to this thread. Is anyone still trading the WTT and how has the performance been? Planning to do on the US universe, like the extremely simple rules and the logic behind the system makes a lot of sense. I’ve reached out to Nick the last few weeks and he’s been very helpful with...

www.aussiestockforums.com

20% Flipper
I remember reading your post at the time "assuming" you had purchased the 20% Flipper. This is a perfect example of "how our minds" make up stories to suit a narrative.

# I can now let this matter go.

Skate.

 

[qldfrog]

From my first post
@Sir Burr I wasn't going to do a follow-up post but until I do I can't clear the image.



Memorizing important information
I take pride in having a good memory & have a habit of posting information from a memory snapshot. Since your last post, it's been bugging me that something didn't quite gel. I've just now worked it out. It didn't gel because your avatar was different at the time you posted back in March 2019.

Avatar
Back then your avatar was of an "Elephant" playing in tropical green crystal clear waters with tropical hills in the background with a hint of beach sand at the side. After saying this it's only the "head of an Elephant poking out of the water". The older I get my recall can at times be a bit fuzzy.

Here is the post

Nick Radge's Weekend Trend Trader

Quick bump to this thread. Is anyone still trading the WTT and how has the performance been? Planning to do on the US universe, like the extremely simple rules and the logic behind the system makes a lot of sense. I’ve reached out to Nick the last few weeks and he’s been very helpful with...

www.aussiestockforums.com

20% Flipper
I remember reading your post at the time "assuming" you had purchased the 20% Flipper. This is a perfect example of "how our minds" make up stories to suit a narrative.

# I can now let this matter go.

Skate.

Our mind processes can be indeed tricky , weird. And to be back in the subject, can deeply influence our trading.
Ro the point where the market is first and foremost the product of a collective mind process.
System traders, quants are just piggy backing on this collective mind .
Nice post Mr Skate?

 

[MovingAverage]

This really cheeses me off...

 

[ducati916]

Duc: you and I have had a debate in the past on a similar randomness discussion so think we will always have differing opinions. But I will make the following comments -

No, you cannot use my same words for a coin flip--this is a completely incorrect and misleading statement. Over time a coin flip has a 50/50 chance of being heads or tails. There is absolute no bias in this outcome--there is absolutely no system or method you can use to predict the outcome of a coin flip over time to a point where you can beat the 50/50 split. So over time you will never be right more than 50% of the time when it comes to predicting the outcome of a coin flip.

Incorrect. A profitable system (martingale) can be profitable without any 'prediction' required. If you read my original post in response to your post, it should be clear that 'profitability' is what we were discussing.

Now let's look at just two of my systems--my swing system is right at predicting the outcome (I will make a profit) around 70% of the time. My weekly breakout system is right at predicting the outcome around 60% of the time.

Is it 'prediction' or simply risk acceptance and risk management?

Of course whether you are profitable is not just down to being right more than wrong--it also depends on your return or loss for each outcome. So again to your coin flip analogy. The question is how much do I get when I pick the right outcome and how much do I lose when I'm wrong. Let's keep it simple and with your coin flip reference so let's assume when you are right you get back 2* your stake and zero if you lose. Guess what, you'll only ever break even unless of course the "house" pays you back greater than 2* for picking the outcome and that will never happen. You coin flip analogy is nothing more than betting on black or red on the roulette table at the casino, but have you any idea why the 0 is on the wheel--it's gives the house a skew in their favour so that there is not a 50/50 chance of picking red or black.

Or you get a really good run of luck.

Bringing this back to my systems that 2* payback on the coin flip is nothing more than the profit factor of my systems. Both my swing system and my weekly both have profit factors in excess of 1. So in the case of my swing system when it picks a winner 70% of the time I make money and when my weekly picks a winner 60% of the time I make money.

Accepted.

If after the above explanation you still think a coin flip analogy is suitable for the market...then???

The coin flip analogy is an example to illustrate the function of pure randomness (luck). Are markets subject to randomness or luck? Yes they are.

I am absolutely not "essentially trading a coin toss". Anyone that is profitable is exploiting an edge. Some may do that knowingly and other may do that by pure lucky guess. But me personally, I am absolutely not trading a coin toss...I am exploiting an edge in my favour

Until your edge fails.

jog on
duc

 

[MovingAverage]

Incorrect. A profitable system (martingale) can be profitable without any 'prediction' required. If you read my original post in response to your post, it should be clear that 'profitability' is what we were discussing.

I was doing my best to ignore this but it is just wrong so can't.

If the outcome is 50/50 and the payoff is 2* your wager--martingale (or any other position sizing approach) will absolutely still be break even. The maths is very simple--so show me a worked example of how it works?

Martingale is a very simple and well documented "strategy"....why then do casinos keep making money off their roulette tables and why aren't they 50 deep with people busting to make their fortunes?

It is rubbish.

 

[ducati916]

I was doing my best to ignore this but it is just wrong so can't.

I guess I'm just lucky!

If the outcome is 50/50 and the payoff is 2* your wager--martingale (or any other position sizing approach) will absolutely still be break even. The maths is very simple--so show me a worked example of how it works?

2* is your calculation not mine.

Martingale is a very simple and well documented "strategy"....why then do casinos keep making money off their roulette tables and why aren't they 50 deep with people busting to make their fortunes?

It is rubbish.

Because generally your money runs out before your luck changes.

jog on
duc

 

[MovingAverage]

I guess I'm just lucky!



2* is your calculation not mine.




Because generally your money runs out before your luck changes.

jog on
duc

The only way Martingdale works is if you literally have infinite money and the pay on a win is unlimited. Hardly realistic. It is a little disingenuous to suggest it can work. Show me a real 50/50 system where the payoff is greater than 2* my stake--because you'll be showing me the path to financial freedom

 

[ducati916]

The only way Martingdale works is if you literally have infinite money and the pay on a win is unlimited. Hardly realistic. It is a little disingenuous to suggest it can work.

Correct.

But if you get lucky, it can work.

jog on
duc

 

[cynic]

I was doing my best to ignore this but it is just wrong so can't.

If the outcome is 50/50 and the payoff is 2* your wager--martingale (or any other position sizing approach) will absolutely still be break even. The maths is very simple--so show me a worked example of how it works?

Martingale is a very simple and well documented "strategy"....why then do casinos keep making money off their roulette tables and why aren't they 50 deep with people busting to make their fortunes?

It is rubbish.

Perhaps the casino's edge is more heavily founded upon something other than probability theory?!

Have you ever been the only player on a table,and suddenly noticed that half a dozen security personnel have materialised behind you?

 

[DaveTrade]

A problem to solve

I’ve been trading in a discretionary manner, looking at and evaluating each market individually. I have a number of tools that allow me to view a market in various ways and then decide if and how to trade it. This is a problem for a purely mechanical system because the mechanical system wants take the ‘one size fits all’ approach but in reality, markets are different and therefore do respond a bit differently. Maybe two different equity markets would respond in a similar manner but I found a problem between the first two markets that I selected due to the fact that one is equities and the other commodities. They have different personalities. I need to adjust how I’m trading these markets to find a compromised approach that will be good enough for both.

I know what you system traders are thinking right now, ‘and he thought it would be easy’. Well I wasn’t thinking that, maybe a little, I thought I could slap this this together in the background while I was doing other things. OK may I was thing that.

 

[Skate]

I'm just putting it out there
Strategy construction consumes so much of my time it's downright annoying when I hit a stumbling block nearing the final hurdle. Having a break & discussing one of the projects might clear my mind. The project is worth the effort even though I've been working on the idea for quite some time. To explain my current project it necessitates a lengthy post but in all fairness, the post is mainly taken up with backtest reports for those who are interested.

Marrying two ideas
Since COVID my sole focus has been on capital protection. With this in mind, it necessitated a rethink on how to construct & code a trading system that has the ability to capitalise on (a) breakouts (my preferred method of trading) & (b) pullbacks (a trading method @peter2 often posts about) marrying them within the same strategy.

The idea is simple enough
Recent turbulent times have required me to rethink & re-evaluate a new trading methodology. Trading breakouts with an "Index Buy Filter" helps with the downside risk to some extent but at times you can be sitting on the sideline for an extended period. Buying pullbacks, but only when the "Index Filter" is turned off allows me to have the best of both worlds.

Trading rules
1. Buy breakouts when the "Index Filter is on" &
2. Buy Pullbacks when the "Index Filter is off"

Summary
Trading has its compromises & this strategy is no different. The backtest results are within tradable limits for those wishing to have the extra comfort profiting from the markets no matter the prevailing conditions but the metrics indicate I've more work to do.

Backtest
The backtest results are from Norgate Platinum Data with "historical constituents" spanning from 1st July 2015 to now (the year & month I first started trading) & each year after that so a fuller picture of how this strategy would have handled a variety of starting dates.

1st July 2015 to now




1st July 2016 to now




1st July 2017 to now




1st July 2018 to now




1st July 2019 to now




1st July 2020 to now




1st July 2021 to now



Just keep in mind that this strategy is a "work in progress"

Skate.

 

[MovingAverage]

Have you ever been the only player on a table,and suddenly noticed that half a dozen security personnel have materialised behind you?

Actually, yes, but it was only 2 security and not half a dozen. When Crown first opened in Melbourne they were stupid enough to open with single deck blackjack and allowed $1000 per hand max wager. You didn't have to be the sharpest tool in the shed to go in there and realise some reasonable money could be had even if you were a mediocre card counter. I managed to do it for 4 weeks before 2 security staff escorted me out and asked me never to come back--kill joys.

In the early days of Crown there were a few card counting groups doing well out of Crown. I even know of one European syndicate that took them for a lot over a two week session.

8 deck auto shufflers put an end to all of that Argh, the good old days when Crown were stupid.