Dump it Here

[Skate]

@divs4ever, the questions below might seem straightforward but can easily lead to hasty conclusions that even the best of us can fall for. This post is a bit of fun to show that not everything is as it seems, much like in trading.

Question 1: If there were 6 apples on a table and you took two away, how many would you have?

ANSWER:

Question 2: A bat and a ball cost $1.10 in total. The bat costs $1.00 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost? _____ cents

ANSWER:

Question 3: Look at the graphic below. Which table is bigger, or are they the same size?

ANSWER:



Skate.

 

[entropy]

View attachment 186891

@divs4ever, the questions below might seem straightforward but can easily lead to hasty conclusions that even the best of us can fall for. This post is a bit of fun to show that not everything is as it seems, much like in trading.

Question 1: If there were 6 apples on a table and you took two away, how many would you have?

ANSWER:

Question 2: A bat and a ball cost $1.10 in total. The bat costs $1.00 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost? _____ cents

ANSWER:

Question 3: Look at the graphic below. Which table is bigger, or are they the same size?

ANSWER:

View attachment 186892

Skate.

2, 5 cents, same

 

[entropy]

2, 5 cents, same

Couple or so for you Skate:

Epicaricacy is an English word been around for several centuries, little used little known but instead of using the word we prefer a German word (sic), what word?

I believe you are something of a Bible scholar: In the King James translation Jonah is reported to have been consumed by what?

When were Australians first declared Australian citizens?

PS: I appreciate your posts.
Your graphs of ST are of interest.
My eyes are not as sharp as they could be, any chance of adding some legend/explanation to them?

 

[dyna]

plan ? , nah not me

Now this is important .

With all due respects to Peter Lynch , I'll bet the great man himself has done his own fair share of market timing !

Mr Skate . You too , I'll bet .
For long term investing it is .......soooo easy .
It works , you know that and it's good fun , too !

 

[divs4ever]

View attachment 186891

@divs4ever, the questions below might seem straightforward but can easily lead to hasty conclusions that even the best of us can fall for. This post is a bit of fun to show that not everything is as it seems, much like in trading.

Question 1: If there were 6 apples on a table and you took two away, how many would you have?

ANSWER:

Question 2: A bat and a ball cost $1.10 in total. The bat costs $1.00 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost? _____ cents

ANSWER:

Question 3: Look at the graphic below. Which table is bigger, or are they the same size?

ANSWER:

View attachment 186892

Skate.

WHEW !

i thought you were going to ask me the procedure for requisitioning ballpoint pens at Telstra ( as an employee )

hint ! the wrong answer was .. if it takes this much paperwork to get some pens , i don't think i want to work here

( now i didn't say this during the entrance exam , but so many applicants laughed at the comment ... none of us got a job offer , )


of course , if you already had a pen .... you wouldn't need to requisition some from the stores ( just saying )

 

[divs4ever]

Now this is important .

With all due respects to Peter Lynch , I'll bet the great man himself has done his own fair share of market timing !

Mr Skate . You too , I'll bet .
For long term investing it is .......soooo easy .
It works , you know that and it's good fun , too !

the problem with my plan was ... i had 10 years ( and no previous experience ) to build an income fund around a portfolio of 4 inherited stocks

( plan for long term BUT HURRY )

now if WOW had of avoided just half the stumbles it has made in the last 12 years ... things might have been easier

 

[Skate]

Schadenfreude (German)
There is no equivalent English word for "Schadenfreude" but the feeling of this unique form of pleasure does exist even if we don't realise it.

I'll be here all-day
Listing every part of the Bible that either contradicts itself or is factually not true would consume this thread. From a talking donkey to a man being eaten by a giant fish to the story of Lot's incest with both daughters. I'm sure when the 66 books of the Old & New Testament were written they never thought they would be picked over with a fine tooth comb.

@entropy, I didn’t do as well as you. 1 out of 3.

I’ve written a few posts containing the answers to two of your questions (see my posts above), but I only knew the answer to one off the top of my head.

Question 1: Epicaricacy is a word I’ve never heard before, so thank you for that. I posted and believed there wasn’t an equivalent English word. Now I know I would have gotten that one wrong after looking up the word. It’s always interesting to learn about these lesser-known English words. (I got this one WRONG)

Question 2: Eaten by a big fish. The original Bible story was that Jonah was eaten by a whale with a throat the size of an orange. I’m a bit perplexed by your use of the word “consumed.” On board the ship, everyone was consumed by fear for different reasons. Jonah was scared and consumed by fear of having to go to Nineveh, and the crew members were consumed by fear as the vessel experienced rough seas, leading to Jonah being thrown overboard. I believe I got the correct answer either way. (Did I get this one CORRECT)

Question 3: When were Australians first declared Australian citizens - This was a real eye-opener as I had to look that one up. I thought I would have been correct in saying at Federation in 1901. Now I know I would have gotten that one wrong. (I got this one WRONG)

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Now this is important .

With all due respects to Peter Lynch , I'll bet the great man himself has done his own fair share of market timing !

Mr Skate . You too , I'll bet .
For long term investing it is .......soooo easy .
It works , you know that and it's good fun , too !

@dyna, you are correct. Aside from this year, I have been a trader and I’ve often emphasised the importance of timing in systematic trading. Over the years, I’ve repeatedly mentioned that timing is crucial, especially the "timing of the exit", as that’s where the money is made. When it comes to investing, making 9% (including dividends and franking credits) is an easy ride, but it feels like you are doing nothing to achieve a good return. In trading, you can make multiples of that - well, I did.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Your graphs of ST are of interest.
My eyes are not as sharp as they could be, any chance of adding some legend/explanation to them?

@entropy, thank you for reading my posts. The charts I’ve posted recently were all about the visuals to give you an idea of how effective the strategy is in picking trends. Trading is all about riding trends - knowing when to get “on and off” is the holy grail as far as I’m concerned.

I’ll post a few charts of (ASX:ALL) zooming out over a few years
Recent signals are important, but zooming out allows you to visualise the signals that came before. With system trading, you just need to follow the signal religiously, knowing that half the picks will be duds. We don’t hold onto dud picks, but when the pick turns out to be correct, we ride the trend until it ends.

Reading the charts:
1. The shading indicates the ride (trend).
2. The green line between the buy and sell points represents closed trades. This line only appears once the position is closed.
3. On the chart, there is a “Signal line” indicating “buy at the next open,” and the “buy” bar shows when the purchase occurs.






















Skate.

 

[entropy]

@entropy, I didn’t do as well as you. 1 out of 3.

I’ve written a few posts containing the answers to two of your questions (see my posts above), but I only knew the answer to one off the top of my head.

Question 1: Epicaricacy is a word I’ve never heard before, so thank you for that. I posted and believed there wasn’t an equivalent English word. Now I know I would have gotten that one wrong after looking up the word. It’s always interesting to learn about these lesser-known English words. (I got this one WRONG)

Question 2: Eaten by a big fish. The original Bible story was that Jonah was eaten by a whale with a throat the size of an orange. I’m a bit perplexed by your use of the word “consumed.” On board the ship, everyone was consumed by fear for different reasons. Jonah was scared and consumed by fear of having to go to Nineveh, and the crew members were consumed by fear as the vessel experienced rough seas, leading to Jonah being thrown overboard. I believe I got the correct answer either way. (Did I get this one CORRECT)

Question 3: When were Australians first declared Australian citizens - This was a real eye-opener as I had to look that one up. I thought I would have been correct in saying at Federation in 1901. Now I know I would have gotten that one wrong. (I got this one WRONG)

Skate.

Q2 correct Skate, well done! 99.99% say whale but in the KJB the passage heading says "...a Great Fish" no mention of whale anywhere.

 

[entropy]

@entropy, thank you for reading my posts. The charts I’ve posted recently were all about the visuals to give you an idea of how effective the strategy is in picking trends. Trading is all about riding trends - knowing when to get “on and off” is the holy grail as far as I’m concerned.

I’ll post a few charts of (ASX:ALL) zooming out over a few years
Recent signals are important, but zooming out allows you to visualise the signals that came before. With system trading, you just need to follow the signal religiously, knowing that half the picks will be duds. We don’t hold onto dud picks, but when the pick turns out to be correct, we ride the trend until it ends.

Reading the charts:
1. The shading indicates the ride (trend).
2. The green line between the buy and sell points represents closed trades. This line only appears once the position is closed.
3. On the chart, there is a “Signal line” indicating “buy at the next open,” and the “buy” bar shows when the purchase occurs.


View attachment 187019





View attachment 187013


View attachment 187014


View attachment 187015


View attachment 187016


View attachment 187017

Skate.

Thanks Skate, brilliant! I don't have TradingView but roll my own plots with Python code. Bit ordinary compared to yours.
Kudos for showing ALL stock plots. I have been regularly adding to my shares in ALL, is now my largest holding. I was late to get on board, thought (wrongly) the anti-gambling publicity would depress the price. Perhaps their O/S business is buoyant?

 

[Skate]

Thanks Skate, brilliant! I don't have TradingView but roll my own plots with Python code. Bit ordinary compared to yours.
Kudos for showing ALL stock plots. I have been regularly adding to my shares in ALL, is now my largest holding. I was late to get on board, thought (wrongly) the anti-gambling publicity would depress the price. Perhaps their O/S business is buoyant?

@entropy, sex and gambling are often considered recession-proof industries. However, I’m currently focusing on dividend investments, and Aristocrat Leisure (ALL) doesn’t quite meet my criteria on that front.

Zooming out over multiple charts for (ASX:ALL) was meant to illustrate that repeatedly "buying the trends" can be an effective alternative to a "buy and hold" investment strategy. Plus, the chart visuals convey that this strategy isn’t too shabby.

IMHO, Trend trading works.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

The article by Chris Conway of Livewire Markets, which inspired this exercise, highlights the evolving capabilities of (AI) in stock picking. As (AI) technology continues to improve, it will be interesting to see how it compares to humans in the field of finance.

Explanation - Fundie vs AI: The best ASX "Income" stocks for the next 12 months
This is a theoretical investment exercise pitting Google's (AI) Gemini against Dr Don Hamson from Plato Investment Management in selecting five "Income" stocks for the next 12 months.

Fundie vs AI: Who is the better stock picker? (and 10 ASX stock ideas for your trouble)

AI is getting better, faster, & stronger. Will it ever be able to pick stocks like a human? We take a step towards answering that question.

www.livewiremarkets.com

Results after 41 weeks
We recognise that this is nothing more than a fun, but nonetheless important, thought experiment. Ultimately, (AI) will likely become a tool that all use to make more informed decisions, across a broad range of topics.






Skate.

 

[Skate]

I have been regularly adding to my shares in ALL, is now my largest holding. I was late to get on board, thought (wrongly)

Well, this was an eye-opener!
Recently, @entropy expressed interest in (ASX:ALL) a position he currently holds, which led me to explore whether a "buy-and-hold strategy" would outperform a "trading strategy" focused on capturing trends.

The results surprised me
Investment Overview - Starting with a $10,000 investment in Aristocrat Leisure Ltd (ASX:ALL) on the 22nd of October 2012, when the stock was priced at $2.95, and selling it yesterday, the 1st of November 2024, yielded a profit of $189,734.

Trading Signals Performance
In contrast, trading the strategy signals over the same period generated a profit of $161,171. The buy-and-hold strategy proved more profitable than active trading, resulting in higher returns despite increased commission costs from trading.

Key Takeaways
#1. Buy-and-Hold Strategy would have grown to $199,734 by the 1st of November 2024, resulting in a profit of $189,734.
#2. Trading based on the signals resulted in a profit of $161,171 over the same period.

Conclusion
The buy-and-hold strategy outperformed trading the signals as presented, yielding higher profits and lower commission costs. It’s fascinating to see how different strategies can lead to varying outcomes.




Buy-and-Hold Strategy
The Dashboard performance results of the buy-and-hold strategy




Trading the signals
The Dashboard performance results of trading the signals that are displayed on the chart above.









Skate.

 

[Skate]

McMillan Shakespeare Ltd (ASX:MMS)
Despite recent price drops indicated by technical analysis, McMillan Shakespeare Ltd (ASX:MMS) remains a compelling choice for long-term, income-focused investors. The company’s solid dividend yield and strong sector potential highlight its fundamental strengths, making it a viable option for those seeking stable returns.



Skate.

 

[divs4ever]

although ALL was a good stock to hold ( and good on @entropy if he/she bought and held .. i didn't )

now QBE was a stock to trade rather than hold long term ( i hold/trade QBE )