Dump it Here

[Skate]

Is there is one that is interested in following along.

The Weekly Progress of the "ASX20 Investment Strategy"
Tracking the weekly performance of the "ASX20 Investment Strategy" is an important exercise for me. I will continue to diligently update the weekly results, as this information is valuable regardless of whether the companies in the report are the "current constituents" or not.

If others are interested in following along, I would happily post the weekly progress updates on Sunday mornings. Even if just one member is interested, let me know.

Skate.

 

[divs4ever]

The Cost of the Dream
The ASX Top 5 Strategy is not free, costing $588 annually. This raises the question of who truly benefits - the traders seeking profits or the strategy's creators guaranteed to earn the fee, regardless of the strategy's actual performance.

which is why bought and kept the SOL holding as i only had to pay the ( subscription ) fee once , and even get a trickle of divs and franking

now buying into other LICs in the earlier days was equally educational , but trending to be less informative currently ( many listing the top holdings in alphabetical order )

however the traders among us might find some ideas in the white paper and tweak from there

as in all investing it is all about risk ( the cost of participating ) v. the returns received , and that includes returns on services paid for

 

[divs4ever]

View attachment 177987
The Weekly Progress of the "ASX20 Investment Strategy"
Tracking the weekly performance of the "ASX20 Investment Strategy" is an important exercise for me. I will continue to diligently update the weekly results, as this information is valuable regardless of whether the companies in the report are the "current constituents" or not.

If others are interested in following along, I would happily post the weekly progress updates on Sunday mornings. Even if just one member is interested, let me know.

Skate.

am particularly interested on how this exercise compares to a standard TOP 20 ETF ( equal weight vs market cap. weighting )

cheers

it is examining differences like this , that help design a better mouse-trap

 

[divs4ever]

PS because i started my investing adventure , later in life ( 2011ish ) i realized i had to tweak and adapt as i learned

 

[Skate]

Skate, I'm not sure if you've raised this before but is your ASX20 Strategy going to go any better than buying the iShares ETF - ILC? The difference is the weighting. I wonder how much of a difference that makes?

am particularly interested on how this exercise compares to a standard TOP 20 ETF ( equal weight vs market cap. weighting )

@divs4ever, @Sean K kindly posted a link for those interested in such comparisons.

iShares S&P/ASX 20 ETF | ILC

The fund aims to provide investors with the performance of the S&P/ASX 20 Accumulation Index, before fees and expenses. The index is designed to measure the performance of the 20 largest Australian securities listed on the ASX.

www.blackrock.com

Skate.

 

[investtrader]

ASX Top 5 Portfolio

ASX Top 5 Portfolio - Market Index

ASX Top 5 Portfolio

www.marketindex.com.au

https://files.marketindex.com.au/files/asx-top-5/asx-top-5-whitepaper.pdf

A very simple rotational strategy. But drawdown of 60% is not the idea of trading. Trading is more about risk and 99% would not follow this strategy even if they thought they could.

 

[divs4ever]

A very simple rotational strategy. But drawdown of 60% is not the idea of trading. Trading is more about risk and 99% would not follow this strategy even if they thought they could.

was more interested on stock selection and IF such a strategy suited me ( at least for part of the portfolio )

i normally associate 'growth ' with higher potential capital gains ( and maybe increasing divs. later )

and since we are talking monthly reviews of positions that might be a little costly , and demand extra discipline

 

[DaveTrade]

@Sean K, to follow up, I wish to add to my previous post.

The "ASX20 Investment Exercise" is a purely hypothetical measure of the performance of Australia's "current" top 20 listed companies as of the 1st May 2024. The results focus on capital gains and dividends for the current financial year, with additional information on market capitalisation, dividend yield, and franking credit percentages.

The objective of this exercise was to explore a simple hypothetical scenario of investing $5,000 in each of the "currently listed" companies in the ASX20 index, with the start date backdated to the 1st of July 2023. Using the index's constituents as of the 1st May 2024, the aim is to determine the year-to-date returns, including both capital gains and dividends, of this $100,000 investment.

The ASX20 (XTL) index comprises the top 20 stocks by float-adjusted market capitalisation. Typically, the index undergoes quarterly rebalancing to account for changes in the market caps of the constituents. However, for this hypothetical exercise, I suggested the rebalancing should be performed annually, on the anniversary of the start date, to simplify the process. Meaning, that investing in the ASX20 can commence at any time, as the timing is irrelevant.

I acknowledge that my initial exercise failed to properly account for the changes in the index composition since July 1, 2023, which introduced survivorship bias in the analysis. Moving forward, the main goal of this experiment is not just about the returns, but about demonstrating how newcomers can engage in the markets with minimal stress.

The weekly progress is important to me and I'm still updating the weekly results. Knowing the companies in the report are the "current constituents" does it make much difference to this exercise? If others want to follow along, I'm happy to post the progress on Sunday mornings. Just let me know, if there is one that is interested in following along, consider it done.

Skate.

The ASX20 ETF currently is in a trading range and has no trend, see chart below. Obviously this requires trading in and out of positions.

 

[farmerge]

@farmerge, I make it a habit to quote the original post when responding, as it helps provide context. I always respond to comments directed at me, whether they are complimentary or not. Responding to every comment allows me to expand on and explain the reasoning and thoughts behind my original post.

Previously, I had posted an investment strategy of buying the ASX20 as an easy entry with low stress for those new to the markets. The Captain then made the point that the "Buy the ASX20" strategy should have been a "Buy the ASX19" strategy, dropping Telstra (TLS) from the list, and provided a compelling chart to support this suggestion. I then uploaded my own charts to demonstrate that even companies currently out of favour can still be traded profitably.

One question about my charts asked whether I buy at the close. I responded that when trading, I buy in the pre-auction to secure the opening price.

Yesterday, I took a small initial position in Rio Tinto (RIO) to add to my real investment portfolio, and I plan to make an additional top-up. The Captain then asked if this meant I was buying on Mondays open. My response was that I plan to make an additional top-up investment in the near future.

As a side note, I have a position size formula that I use for trading, and a separate one for investing. For trading, I need to calculate an offer price to secure the opening price, as the exact opening price is unknown when I place my order. For investing, my orders are placed during the auction, so I know the price, and my position sizing is calculated to ensure my entire funds buy the maximum number of shares, leaving only cents behind. This formula requires multiple inputs to ensure a precise process.

To follow the conversation

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/dump-it-here.34425/post-1280881

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/dump-it-here.34425/post-1280890

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/dump-it-here.34425/post-1281275

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/dump-it-here.34425/post-1281502

Skate.

professor thank you for the info.
Obviously, those of us have upset the Cap't beyond belief and so like mushrooms we are in the dark when it comes to his murmurings.

 

[TimeISmoney]

professor thank you for the info.
Obviously, those of us have upset the Cap't beyond belief and so like mushrooms we are in the dark when it comes to his murmurings.

Open up the page in incognito and all will be revealed.

 

[farmerge]

Open up the page in incognito and all will be revealed.


View attachment 177997

@TimeISmoney I am aware of finding out about posts from those that have put a block on. But I can't be bothered.

 

[TimeISmoney]

@TimeISmoney I am aware of finding out about posts from those that have put a block on. But I can't be bothered.

It's amusing how they stopped posting in their own thread and then come on here where they've blocked 90% of the posters.

 

[Skate]

@TimeISmoney I am aware of finding out about posts from those that have put a block on. But I can't be bothered.

It's amusing how they stopped posting in their own thread and then come on here where they've blocked 90% of the posters.

@farmerge and @TimeISmoney raise some important points around the two-way block. While such measures can help manage anxiety, they also limit the open exchange of ideas.

Vigorously expressing a point of view is one thing, but attacking the person rather than the idea is another. It can be difficult to know when someone has been offended and finding the right balance is a shared responsibility.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Disclaimer
This investment exercise is purely hypothetical and measures the performance of Australia's "current" top 20 listed companies from the 1st of May 2024. The results focus on "Capital Gains and Dividends" for the current financial year, with additional information on market capitalisation, dividend yield and franking credit percentages. It is important to note that the "composition of the ASX20 index" may change over time, and the results presented may not be reflective of the actual performance.

The Objective of this Exercise
The objective is to explore a simple hypothetical scenario of investing $5,000 in each of the "currently listed" companies in the ASX20 index. Using the index's "current constituents", I have backdated the start date to the 1st of July 2023. The aim is to determine the year-to-date returns, including capital gains and dividends, of this $100,000 investment.

Rebalancing the ASX20
The index typically undergoes quarterly rebalancing to account for changes in the market caps of the constituents. However, for this hypothetical exercise, the rebalancing will be performed annually, on the anniversary of the start date, to simplify the process.

Important Notice
In my previous analysis, I failed to account for changes in the ASX20 index composition since the 1st of July 2023, introducing survivorship bias. Moving forward, the primary goal extends beyond returns to demonstrate a simplified approach that enables newcomers to participate in the markets with ease and reduced anxiety.



Skate.

 

[DaveTrade]

One of price action for the ASX20 ETF;

 

[Skate]

Skate, I'm not sure if you've raised this before but is your ASX20 Strategy going to go any better than buying the iShares ETF - ILC? The difference is the weighting. I wonder how much of a difference that makes?

One of price action for the ASX20 ETF

@DaveTrade, buying ILC rather than the entire ASX20 removes the thrill of being directly involved. Buying the ASX20 was proposed as a safe way to enter the markets, and my series of posts were oriented in that direction. There are similarities between nose-picking and investing and I should make a post about that.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Picking Noses
Investing is far from a casual nose-picking adventure. Although both may involve a degree of trial and error, the similarities cease there. Investing demands rigorous research, and comprehensive analysis, and extends beyond a mere casual probe.

Indeed, at times you might select winners, and at other times, you may not. However, successful investing isn't anchored in blind speculation, but rather, in disciplined decision-making.

Naturally, the strategy I've promoted "buying the entire ASX20" bypasses the entire "picking" dilemma and in doing so, your financial future isn't hinging on a single impulsive flick of the wrist.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

More on picking
Instead of heeding my own advice about buying the entire ASX20 index, I instead set out to handpick individual companies that met certain criteria. My goal was to build a portfolio focused on steady, passive income - companies with proven track records in that regard.

Picking can have consequences
My selected holdings ended up including the likes of ANZ, BHP, CBA, FMG, RIO, and WDS. Stripping out the two banks, this portfolio is now dangerously concentrated in the resource and materials sectors. It has the potential to be either a feast or famine.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Navigating Investment Risks
Investing carries risk and opportunity. My portfolio’s vulnerability lies in the potential for commodity prices to dip below expectations, economic growth to falter, and currency values to fluctuate unfavourably. Conversely, there lies the risk. It’s a delicate balance where the scales of market dynamics can tip in either direction, impacting my investment portfolio’s performance.

While these risks are present, I believe my portfolio provides opportunities for long-term growth whilst delivering a passive income through dividends and franking credits.

Skate.

 

[TimeISmoney]

@farmerge and @TimeISmoney raise some important points around the two-way block. While such measures can help manage anxiety, they also limit the open exchange of ideas.

Vigorously expressing a point of view is one thing, but attacking the person rather than the idea is another. It can be difficult to know when someone has been offended and finding the right balance is a shared responsibility.

Skate.

The charts that they posted on their own thread are incomprehensible on their own, and a lot of it was questionable as to whether or not they were spruiking their own stocks. Some of us questioned the charts and the stock choice only to be ignored or criticized for one thing or another, we tried to make it subtle so as not to offend the person and we all got blocked.

I understand that trading has a large spectrum of styles, everyone has their own individual forte, whether it's accounting skills, engineering, skills, critical thinking skills and so on, so basically everyone has something to bring to the table.

The last few people I've seen criticize your trading style apart @divs4ever and @ducati916 who have put in much effort on independent threads to inform new traders on here have done nothing to basically help new traders.