Dump it Here

[Skate]

Good evening, Professor.
As I have been following this Investment Trip of yours to date, I thought why don't I do something similar on paper to see if I can emulate you just a little bit.
So, from July 1, I am thinking I will try and give it a go.

@farmerge, the results showcased in my “Real-life Investment Strategy” offer a limited view, providing insufficient data to fully evaluate the effectiveness of investing for dividends and franking credits as a sustainable passive income source. However, your interest prompts me to share the initial modelling that guided my decision to begin investing. It’s important to note that I’ve made several adjustments to my model, including replacing MFG and MQG, as they did not meet my criteria for franking credits.

Harnessing Modelling to Guide Decision-Making
Leveraging modelling with real-world data is a powerful approach to gaining insights that inform sound decisions. Modelling allows us to anticipate outcomes, despite their annual variations. The results of my modelling, detailed below, have been instrumental in my shift towards investing to cultivate a steady passive income.

Modelling results from the 1st July 2023 to present
The modelling below displays the "Dividends and franking credits" from the positions listed. Notably, "capital gains" remain outside the scope of this analysis.



Skate.

 

[Skate]

A Sea of Red
If nothing else, this exercise displays consistency of dismal results.

# Disclaimer - This is a theoretical investment exercise
In this exercise, we put "Google (AI) Gemini" head-to-head with seasoned fund manager Dr. Don Hamson from Plato Investment Management. Both were tasked with providing their "top five growth and income stocks" for the next 12 months on the ASX.

First Place -$32
# Dr. Don Hamson (Expert) - BLUE line on the equity chart

Second Place -$275
# Skate - BROWN line on the equity chart

Third Place -$1,581
# Google Gemini (AI) - RED line on the equity chart






Skate.

 

[divs4ever]

@farmerge, the results showcased in my “Real-life Investment Strategy” offer a limited view, providing insufficient data to fully evaluate the effectiveness of investing for dividends and franking credits as a sustainable passive income source. However, your interest prompts me to share the initial modelling that guided my decision to begin investing. It’s important to note that I’ve made several adjustments to my model, including replacing MFG and MQG, as they did not meet my criteria for franking credits.

Harnessing Modelling to Guide Decision-Making
Leveraging modelling with real-world data is a powerful approach to gaining insights that inform sound decisions. Modelling allows us to anticipate outcomes, despite their annual variations. The results of my modelling, detailed below, have been instrumental in my shift towards investing to cultivate a steady passive income.

Modelling results from the 1st July 2023 to present
The modelling below displays the "Dividends and franking credits" from the positions listed. Notably, "capital gains" remain outside the scope of this analysis.

View attachment 177107

Skate.

ummm it has been a few years since MQG last paid a fully franked div. , too much income from international sources
and ANZ might not be fully franked in the future either ( but should stay over 80% franking credits )

but always interesting to see a 'model' ( backtest ) compared to the real results ( after they have occurred )

 

[TimeISmoney]

My AI picks are doing fairly well considering the market sediment ATM, I reckon if you swing traded the picks you would do even better.

 

[Skate]

Being a father of 3 boys - I was more of a “referee” than a dad
When my three boys were little, they went through a swearing phase, so I decided it was time to nip it in the bud.

I asked my eldest boy what he wanted for breakfast, and he said, “Friggin’ Cornflakes.” That resulted in a bit of discipline.

Next, my middle boy sat down, and I posed the same question. He quickly said, “Friggin’ Cornflakes,” and he was disciplined as well.

Finally, my youngest son sat down, and I asked him what he wanted for breakfast. Without missing a beat, he shouted, “Not friggin’ Cornflakes.”

His quick-witted response caught me off guard and brought a smile to my face. While his choice of words was still not ideal, I couldn't help but appreciate his "quick thinking".

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Birthday wish
My wife asked what I’d like for my birthday, hinting at something extraordinary.

I replied, “How about a broken drum kit?”

Perplexed, she inquired, “Why on earth would you want that?”

With a grin, I said: "You can't beat that"

Skate.

 

[farmerge]

View attachment 177200
Birthday wish
My wife asked what I’d like for my birthday, hinting at something extraordinary.

I replied, “How about a broken drum kit?”

Perplexed, she inquired, “Why on earth would you want that?”

With a grin, I said: "You can't beat that"

Skate.

Ah Professor, what a wicked sense of humour.

 

[Rabbithop]

Good evening, Professor.
As I have been following this Investment Trip of yours to date, I thought why don't I do something similar on paper to see if I can emulate you just a little bit.
So, from July 1, I am thinking I will try and give it a go.

farmer...I am also following Skate on his trip..Holding 3 out of his 5 stocks in my portfolio n am seeking n waiting for another 3 for price drop.

 

[Skate]

farmer...I am also following Skate on his trip..Holding 3 out of his 5 stocks in my portfolio n am seeking n waiting for another 3 for price drop.

@Rabbithop, would you be open to sharing the three stocks you currently hold, as well as the other three you’re monitoring, including the target entry price you have in mind?

Skate.

 

[divs4ever]

@Rabbithop, would you be open to sharing the three stocks you currently hold, as well as the other three you’re monitoring, including the target entry price you have in mind?

Skate.

i hold BHP and WDS ( both at reduced cash risk )

my watch list is extensive so that won't help much

 

[Rabbithop]

@Rabbithop, would you be open to sharing the three stocks you currently hold, as well as the other three you’re monitoring, including the target entry price you have in mind?

Skate.

Good morning.
I hold BHP, FMG, WDS in my portfolio. I took an interest after reading your post, your frankness in sharing your new test . I took it on face value on your sincerity, bonus point to it, I hold 3 stocks out of your 5.
I do have my reservation in posting here, not everyone share my opinion on stock entry price that I am willing to pay.
Just like divs4ever, I do have an extensive list to mention. However, I will post some of it here depending on who will get my money when the price fits my asking.
ANZ or MQG, COL or TRS( newly added on this am), STO or WDS(more to top up).
I was going to mention 2 of my lithium stocks instead of COL n TRS but the later 2, I hold none so it would be a challenge for me.
You gave me an idea to put my pot (selling off investment property portfolio) into divs earning stocks for pocket money/holidays expenditure.

 

[Skate]

Good morning.
I hold BHP, FMG, WDS in my portfolio. I took an interest after reading your post, your frankness in sharing your new test . I took it on face value on your sincerity, bonus point to it, I hold 3 stocks out of your 5.
I do have my reservation in posting here, not everyone share my opinion on stock entry price that I am willing to pay.
Just like divs4ever, I do have an extensive list to mention. However, I will post some of it here depending on who will get my money when the price fits my buying.
ANZ or MQG, COL or TRS( newly added on this am), STO or WDS(more to top up).
I was going to mention 2 of my lithium stocks instead of COL n TRS but the later 2, I hold none so it would be a challenge for me.

@Rabbithop, I've been contemplating a trading strategy centred around building a high-quality portfolio consisting of the top 20 companies listed on the ASX (ASX20). To ensure an objective selection process, I've decided to adopt @peter2's recommendation and utilise Alex Spiroglou's MACD-V indicator to assess the performance of these companies. The accessibility of TradingView's free platform makes this approach even more appealing.

The strategy itself is simple and clear-cut
I plan to closely follow the MACD-V signals and execute trades promptly based on those generated signals. To evaluate the effectiveness of this strategy, I'm eager to conduct a retrospective analysis of its performance since July 1st, 2023. I intend to document this analysis thoroughly, recognising its potential as a valuable guide for individuals interested in trading high-quality companies.

It's worth noting
The main drawback of this portfolio strategy is that inactive funds will remain in cash, potentially earning a 4% interest rate. The final results of the analysis will not factor in Dividends, Franking Credits, and accrued Interest, but these can be regarded as an added bonus.

Skate.

 

[peter2]

@Skate We've noticed that the MACD-V isn't the quickest to spot a trend. I think your %-UP filter is as good as any.

The MACD-V is an indicator that can be used to sort the early movers from the rest. After a market dip and your %-Up gives the OK to buy the MACD-V can be used to find the early movers from the laggards.

 

[Skate]

@Skate We've noticed that the MACD-V isn't the quickest to spot a trend. I think your %-UP filter is as good as any.

The MACD-V is an indicator that can be used to sort the early movers from the rest. After a market dip and your %-Up gives the OK to buy the MACD-V can be used to find the early movers from the laggards.

@peter2, I appreciate your insightful comments. I’ve observed that entry and exit points tend to lag, which is a significant consideration. Personally, I would not opt for the MACD-v for trading. Instead, I favour a more streamlined approach, such as my “Trend Momentum Strategy,” which integrates the “Percentage Up” Filter for enhanced efficiency.

To ensure @Richard Dale is informed, the backtest covers the current calendar year, spanning a five-month period. This timeframe is sufficiently representative for the purposes of this discussion. The actual trading results are documented in Share Trade Trader. The minor discrepancies primarily stem from my unique pre-auction share calculation method, in contrast to Amibroker’s post-opening share number determination, which relies on the opening price.

In summary, both the backtest and the actual performance data align closely, affirming the strategy’s effectiveness and its systematic execution.






Skate.

 

[peter2]

Good, I knew you could do better than using the MACD-V. It's a useful indicator but needs a bit of help in a trading system.

 

[Skate]

Good, I knew you could do better than using the MACD-V. It's a useful indicator but needs a bit of help in a trading system.

@peter2, earlier today, I mentioned my intention to utilise Alex Spiroglou’s MACD-V indicator for evaluating the performance of actively trading the top 20 companies (ASX:20). As an alternative, I'm also going to compare this approach with a simple buy-and-hold strategy for the same set of companies. I’ll conduct this comparison later today, and I anticipate viewing the results.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

@peter2, earlier today, I mentioned my intention to utilise Alex Spiroglou’s MACD-V indicator for evaluating the performance of actively trading the top 20 companies (ASX:20).

Ideas in trading are why new traders seek out this forum
The essence of the "Dump it here" thread is to spark ideas among new traders. Rather than mere replication, my sole purpose is to inspire thoughtful engagement in the markets while safeguarding precious capital. Following @peter2’s recent suggestion, I’ve undertaken an evaluation of Alex Spiroglou’s MACD strategy. I’ve implemented the MACD-v in both Amibroker and TradingView and the results aren't too shabby.

While the MACD-v adheres to robust principles, it does reveal certain limitations. However, its simplicity in understanding and execution is noteworthy. My recent discussions and posts on the MACD-v serve as a springboard for others to evaluate. Sometimes, a fresh perspective on an old idea can yield remarkable results.

My contributions to the forum are grounded in strategies from my own trading experience. Occasionally, I introduce novel viewpoints to established methods and ideas. Above all, safety remains paramount in trading, with any successes along the way being a welcome bonus.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

@peter2, earlier today, I mentioned my intention to utilise Alex Spiroglou’s MACD-V indicator for evaluating the performance of actively trading the top 20 companies (ASX:20)

Trading the Top 20 Companies - A Strategic Analysis
Utilising Alex Spiroglou’s MACD-v indicator, I followed the generated signals of the companies making up the ASX20 and the results are in.

The approach was methodical
The portfolio consisted of (20) positions, each investment at $10,000, culminating in a total investment ceiling of $200,000.

Condensed Financial Outcome - Capital Gains
The fiscal year trading results returned a remarkable capital gain of $24,371. This performance not only surpasses traditional bank interest rates but also demonstrates the effect of trading a well-researched trading strategy.



Skate.

 

[Skate]

I'm also going to compare this approach with a simple buy-and-hold strategy for the same set of companies.

Navigating the Trading Learning Curve - A Practical Approach
For those new to trading, the initial learning curve can be daunting. Often, they’re eager to dive right into the markets without realising that a few years of education might be necessary. However, there’s an alternative approach that balances immediate involvement with ongoing learning.

One Suggestion is to "Buy the ASX20"
Allocate your trading funds equally across the top 20 ASX-listed companies. By doing so, you’ll experience the thrill and excitement that markets offer while simultaneously allowing yourself time to learn the intricacies of trading. This strategy provides a fighting chance for decent returns, even as you continue to build your knowledge.

Capital Gains and Dividends
The current fiscal year has been a testament to the success of strategic investing. The combination of capital gains and dividends has culminated in an impressive 17.9% return, amounting to a significant $35,740 in monetary terms. Notably, this figure has been achieved without factoring in Franking Credits, which could further enhance the calculated returns. This stellar performance not only outstrips the returns from traditional banking options but also highlights the benefits of investing in high-quality companies.




Skate.

 

[Skate]

I think, I got a hold for this WTT. It does hold a great potential.

@bettamania, I've made over 160 posts about "the Weekend Trend Trader" Search WTT by Skate if you want to read what I have written about this strategy.

Read this post: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/dump-it-here.34425/post-1233856

Read this post: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/dump-it-here.34425/post-1219324

Read this post: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/dump-it-here.34425/post-1219319

Skate.