Dump it Here

[divs4ever]

but a 'ten -bagger ' cancels 8 losers and you still have a profit

 

[Captain_Chaza]

but a 'ten -bagger ' cancels 8 losers and you still have a profit

But if you don't get that 10 bagger I figure you are a 9 time loser
if my math is correct?

 

[divs4ever]

But if you don't get that 10 bagger I figure you are a 9 time loser
if my math is correct?

Commsec seems to think otherwise , although sometimes i jump out too early and miss the extra gains ( like BCT )

my math calculates the associated costs ( brokerage , etc ) luckily i don't have paid subscriptions , otherwise i might need one ten-bagger for every 7 duds , depending on where i subscribed to

 

[divs4ever]

PS ... i count any stock bought under $1 as a 'penny stock ' ie 100 'pennies' in a dollar

that has netted me a fair number of triple-baggers ( and more without hitting the magical ten )

so one lucky pick ( like PME up more than 48,000% ) makes an overall loss rather difficult

sadly there is one one lucky strike like that , but DTL ( up 600%) and KPG ( up 350% ) and CLV ( up 300% ) balance the duds like TOY , TEG , PAN

 

[Skate]

I believe it is all about Technical verses Technical

One thing that most people don’t understand about mechanical system trading is that it is not a guarantee of success or a shortcut to wealth creation. While this can have some advantages, such as eliminating emotions, biases, and errors, it also has some disadvantages, such as technical glitches, poor coding, and market changes.

Mechanical system trading requires a lot of research, testing, and evaluation to develop and maintain a profitable system as well as the ability to monitor and adjust the system as needed. Mechanical system trading is simply a tool that can help traders execute their strategies more efficiently and consistently, but it also requires discipline, patience, and skill.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

DTL ( up 600%) and KPG ( up 350% ) and CLV ( up 300% )

@divs4ever, I admire your trading skills and results. My highest closed profit percentage is nowhere near your lowest one.

Open and closed profits are different
Open profits can change or vanish, closed profits are yours to keep. This mindset can help you deal with volatility, which can create large swings and uncertainty in the market. Volatility can be a source of both risk and reward, depending on how you handle it.

Remember
“Open profits belong to the market, closed profits belong to you”.



Skate.

 

[divs4ever]

@divs4ever, I admire your trading skills and results. My highest closed profit percentage is nowhere near your lowest one.

Open and closed profits are different
Open profits can change or vanish, closed profits are yours to keep. This mindset can help you deal with volatility, which can create large swings and uncertainty in the market. Volatility can be a source of both risk and reward, depending on how you handle it.

Remember
“Open profits belong to the market, closed profits belong to you”.

View attachment 163056

Skate.

not so much 'trading' as looking in unloved ( at the time ) sectors or unloved stocks in popular sectors

take the 'tech stocks'i did nicely on i had a hobby with computers and prefer the hardware side of things ( so am amazed how many shifted to 'cloud ' and abandoned any hope of security ) so veered towards hardware/services providers , now 'cloud' is the craze , i veer new money into REITs that focus on industrial sheds ( they will eventually wake up they DON'T need all that fancy flooring and air-refrigeration ( thanks EB games for that lesson ) any highly secure shed with power will do .

outside of that i had some 'grey nomad'friends ( not the ASF member with that NIC ) and they traveled their last days ( both are now deceased) along the East Coast of Australia and declared in fundamentally stuffed ( since they were retired tradesmen ( and business owners) i took that as a tip , in 2012 i had some stuff to do interstate and had a look myself ( NSW , ACT , SA and WA ) now SA had it's possibilities , but WA at the time had all the growth potential , so spotted some WA based stocks ( FWD being the dud ) and also came across some WA focused LICs ( WIC and it's stable mate ) and that went fairly well

half my success ( apart from sheer luck ) is looking and thinking , you go into Bunnings as a BWP /WES shareholder ( part owner ) and LOOK , what is staff morale like , what are the shelves like ( full, messy , half-empty ) is the site old and in need of maintenance , etc. etc etc , shopping/visiting the business ( outside of AGMs ) can tell you much ( that doesn't make the presentation brochure )

got to see the 'closed door parts of TPG when David Teoh ran things , and it looked tight and efficient ( so i bought some shares ) when David left i sold ( at a nice profit ) but kept the TUA entitlement and bought some more with the TPG profits ( the Australian telco regulator is a minefield of problems , no more Aussie telcos for me , i hold SPK and TUA )

 

[Captain_Chaza]

not so much 'trading' as looking in unloved ( at the time ) sectors or unloved stocks in popular sectors

take the 'tech stocks'i did nicely on i had a hobby with computers and prefer the hardware side of things ( so am amazed how many shifted to 'cloud ' and abandoned any hope of security ) so veered towards hardware/services providers , now 'cloud' is the craze , i veer new money into REITs that focus on industrial sheds ( they will eventually wake up they DON'T need all that fancy flooring and air-refrigeration ( thanks EB games for that lesson ) any highly secure shed with power will do .

outside of that i had some 'grey nomad'friends ( not the ASF member with that NIC ) and they traveled their last days ( both are now deceased) along the East Coast of Australia and declared in fundamentally stuffed ( since they were retired tradesmen ( and business owners) i took that as a tip , in 2012 i had some stuff to do interstate and had a look myself ( NSW , ACT , SA and WA ) now SA had it's possibilities , but WA at the time had all the growth potential , so spotted some WA based stocks ( FWD being the dud ) and also came across some WA focused LICs ( WIC and it's stable mate ) and that went fairly well

half my success ( apart from sheer luck ) is looking and thinking , you go into Bunnings as a BWP /WES shareholder ( part owner ) and LOOK , what is staff morale like , what are the shelves like ( full, messy , half-empty ) is the site old and in need of maintenance , etc. etc etc , shopping/visiting the business ( outside of AGMs ) can tell you much ( that doesn't make the presentation brochure )

got to see the 'closed door parts of TPG when David Teoh ran things , and it looked tight and efficient ( so i bought some shares ) when David left i sold ( at a nice profit ) but kept the TUA entitlement and bought some more with the TPG profits ( the Australian telco regulator is a minefield of problems , no more Aussie telcos for me , i hold SPK and TUA )

NB: I don't do Unloved Stocks !!!!

It has NEVER worked for me In the Short Term
NEVER in the Medium term and
NEVER and the Long term

IMHO You Are Extremely Lucky
'nuf said"

 

[divs4ever]

IMHO You Are Extremely Lucky

yes , i jokingly call it my super-power

that art is to know when to take SOME profit along the way

 

[Captain_Chaza]

yes , i jokingly call it my super-power

that art is to know when to take SOME profit along the way

As by your own declaration that you do not spend ONE Cent on paid Data
You must be very rich saving all those expenses over the decades?

Where do you get your Art Form/ discipline in Selling without any data what-so-ever?
This is truly beyond my scope of imagination

As the Great Capn Skate always says
If it works for you Don't Change a Thing!

 

[divs4ever]

As by your own declaration that you do not spend ONE Cent on paid Data
You must be very rich saving all those expenses over the decades?

correct , but have only been interested in shares since very late 2010

all those 'savings assume i was well-paid in my working life , now occasionally that was so , and sometimes a job would have a nice side-hustle ( listen to the trots/dogs while working in a factory , and punting with reasonable success ) stuff like that

but mostly just got used to living within my means and not using credit cards

for instance 'my trusty calculator ' was a solar-powered pocket calculator a relic from my high school days ( bought with my paper-round money ( i still use it to triple-check any math before buying/selling shares )

 

[Captain_Chaza]

correct , but have only been interested in shares since very late 2010

all those 'savings assume i was well-paid in my working life , now occasionally that was so , and sometimes a job would have a nice side-hustle ( listen to the trots/dogs while working in a factory , and punting with reasonable success ) stuff like that

but mostly just got used to living within my means and not using credit cards

for instance 'my trusty calculator ' was a solar-powered pocket calculator a relic from my high school days ( bought with my paper-round money ( i still use it to triple-check any math before buying/selling shares )

'nuf said
You are a Genius!
I only wish I was so LUCKY!

 

[divs4ever]

'nuf said
You are a Genius!
I only wish I was so LUCKY!

much more lucky than genius , but don't get too frustrated sometimes the luck goes the other way , i have plenty of ( physical and financial ) scars to show for that

the key lesson is not to be overly greedy ( i believe 'greed is good ' as long as you keep it under control )

also there is a massive crash/correction coming ( maybe during my life-time ) 2011 up to now has basically been a bull market , normally 2020 would have tested my strategy but government stepped in to pick winners , so maybe the strategy still has major flaws ( a rising tide lifts all boats )

 

[Skate]

Mr @Skate and other fellow trend systems builder will be interested in the priceactionlab link above

I've had my say in "Duc's thread"
@qldfrog being a fellow trend trader referenced @ducati916 hyperlink to a blog that I found interesting, not because I agreed with the content matter but because it wasn't in line with my current thinking.

The "Price Action Lab" Blog
I found one of the articles on trend following and the "Sharpe ratios interesting". The author argues that trend following is a Sharpe maximisation strategy that trades off returns and volatility. They backtested a simple trend-following strategy on S&P 500 stocks and found the Sharpe ratio peaked at around 0.55 for a maximum of 400 stocks.

The article raises a few questions for me
(a) Is there a sweet spot for the number of stocks to trade?
(b) How do you balance the trade-off between returns and volatility?

Trend-Following Many Markets Maximizes Sharpe – Price Action Lab Blog

www.priceactionlab.com

Skate.

 

[Skate]

bought a small position last week when it was running at 38$ , oil price seems to have recovered back above 91$ now but why is woodside getting sold down? Is some major shareholder selling out or just the ex-dividend effect?

It's the question that irritates us the most - When do we buy and when do we sell?
It's a question that may irritate us, but with a clear strategy, we can all make informed decisions to achieve success in the markets. The decision to buy or sell a position is based on various factors, including market conditions, trends, risk tolerance, or simply a personal decision based on other metrics. I'm sure @divs4ever and @Captain_Chaza would be in agreeance that "there is no one-size-fits-all answer to this question", and the best approach will depend on you.

From a technical perspective
When do you buy and sell? Utilising technical analysis it becomes a little clearer as this decision is taken from you as the system determines the appropriate timing. The chart below displays an example where the position ran out of steam and the momentum went "stale" very early in the trend. When this happens funds are better directed elsewhere.



Skate.

 

[divs4ever]

. I'm sure @divs4ever and @Captain_Chaza would be in agreeance that "there is no one-size-fits-all answer to this question", and the best approach will depend on you.

in my opinion ABSOLUTELY, ( agree )

i normally don't count on being agile enough to 'trade the dip ' , NORMALLY i calculate an acceptable price submit the order and wait

now sometimes a big drop is obvious so i try to wind the order lower as the share slides ( or when it bounces on the way down like ILU often does )

now depending on the stock ( say BHP ) i leave enough reserve cash for a second bite ( or to take an opportunity elsewhere ...say an index ETF that is heavy with BHP )

i wouldn't call timing my strong suit , but understanding i often move early teaches me to prepare for a second opportunity , half of a terrific deal beats waiting too long , IMO

 

[DrBourse]

It's the question that irritates us the most - When do we buy and when do we sell?
It's a question that may irritate us, but with a clear strategy, we can all make informed decisions to achieve success in the markets. The decision to buy or sell a position is based on various factors, including market conditions, trends, risk tolerance, or simply a personal decision based on other metrics. I'm sure @divs4ever and @Captain_Chaza would be in agreeance that "there is no one-size-fits-all answer to this question", and the best approach will depend on you.

Hi Skate....

May as well add my mantra to the "When to Buy/Sell Conundrum"....

One of the problems traders continually have trouble with is, "To Sell, or not to Sell & to Buy, or not to Buy"- So Traders should IMO, ask themselves the following Questions.

Lets assume you currently hold a particular stock, then you should, after doing your research, ask yourself the following Questions -
"If I did not own this stock right now, would I buy it", - If the answer is that you would buy, then you should probably hold - HOWEVER, if the answer is that you would not buy now, then you should probably Sell ASAP......

OR....

Lets assume you currently do Not Hold a particular stock, then you should, after doing your research, ask yourself the following Questions -
"If I did own this stock right now, would I Sell it", - If the answer is that you would Sell, then you should probably not Buy - HOWEVER, if the answer is that you would buy now, then you should probably Buy ASAP......

Mind bending stuff - Bit like the 1950's Abbott & Costello performance of "Who's on First"...

BUT DYOR.

 

[divs4ever]

@divs4ever, to save clogging "Duc's thread" let me give you an example in the "Dump it here" thread. The most common question I get asked is when to buy and rarely "when to sell".

There was good banter in the WDS thread and I'll use this company as an example.

Buying good companies is the name of the game but buy them too early or too late in the cycle and you'll be in for a great deal of pain.

Skate.

now selling :-

first my initial aim in buying is to hold SOME 'forever ' ( however circumstance may change that )

normally , a successful selection will climb to a 140 to 150% gain and i start thinking .. 'should i take the cash risk out ( i do not do this everything but say 85% of the time ) so i aim to sell 40% of the holding to cover the cash investment and other costs and keep 60% ( letting the winner run )

but what about the mediocre ones ?

sometimes i will decide a business is taking a turn i don't like ( BLD , CTX , ORG as examples ) check i am running in some profit .. and kick them out the door ( WBC i messed up the timing of that kick ) , with IPL , they entered into an agreement with CTP ( a stock i was learning a lot from , and not good things ) and bang they were gone , the profit was almost accidental

now weird examples .. a fair while back i bought some BKL ( Blackmores ) as 'a bottom drawer ' stock say around $25 and then despite expectations it took off even pushing into the to 200 , so i am looking at this farcically over-priced stock ( ex-div. to boot ) and thinking this madness has to end , sometime and the WES ( cum. div ) caught me eye so grabbed out the calculator crunched some numbers and realized i could swap each BKL for ( roughly ) 3.1 WES , now just by expected div. yield that that was compelling ( no mention of the COL divestment back then )

so you also have to be able to spot an opportunity and be willing to take it

 

[Captain_Chaza]

@divs4ever, to save clogging "Duc's thread" let me give you an example in the "Dump it here" thread. The most common question I get asked is when to buy and rarely "when to sell".

There was good banter in the WDS thread and I'll use this company as an example.

Buying good companies is the name of the game but buy them too early or too late in the cycle and you'll be in for a great deal of pain.

Skate.

now selling :-

first my initial aim in buying is to hold SOME 'forever ' ( however circumstance may change that )

normally , a successful selection will climb to a 140 to 150% gain and i start thinking .. 'should i take the cash risk out ( i do not do this everything but say 85% of the time ) so i aim to sell 40% of the holding to cover the cash investment and other costs and keep 60% ( letting the winner run )

but what about the mediocre ones ?

sometimes i will decide a business is taking a turn i don't like ( BLD , CTX , ORG as examples ) check i am running in some profit .. and kick them out the door ( WBC i messed up the timing of that kick ) , with IPL , they entered into an agreement with CTP ( a stock i was learning a lot from , and not good things ) and bang they were gone , the profit was almost accidental

now weird examples .. a fair while back i bought some BKL ( Blackmores ) as 'a bottom drawer ' stock say around $25 and then despite expectations it took off even pushing into the to 200 , so i am looking at this farcically over-priced stock ( ex-div. to boot ) and thinking this madness has to end , sometime and the WES ( cum. div ) caught me eye so grabbed out the calculator crunched some numbers and realized i could swap each BKL for ( roughly ) 3.1 WES , now just by expected div. yield that that was compelling ( no mention of the COL divestment back then )

so you also have to be able to spot an opportunity and be willing to take it

I gave you a sad face because I don't know what you are trying to say

Sometimes you do this and Sometimes I do that
Do you do This and a That in Bull Markets ?
Do you that and then a This in Bear Markets

IE o you really Know what you are doing ?


What sort of advice is this?

 

[divs4ever]

i often have several plans on the shelf but stay flexible , ready to snatch an opportunity IF it passes and looks good

there is no point staring at the screen for a year , waiting for a target price so i lob in an order and look around to see what else is on offer

and yes i try to catch ( some ) falling knives , sometimes i get cut , sometimes the knife goes into my foot ( SGH was one of those ) and sometimes i get it right ( LNC Linc Energy was one of those )

my advice is .. do what is best for YOU ( and try to educate yourself first if possible )

cheers