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There's only one way to test the robustness of a system, and that's to run a walk-forward analysis. I've only managed a successful WF analysis once, and it was a system that eventually broke down! So even passing a WF is not an ironclad guarantee. A good mechanical system will probably generalize quite well to other exchanges, like NYSE or NQ. Being a momentum system, I'd assume SAP maintains profitability on American markets.

Discretionary systems can only be tested with paper trading, which is what I'm doing currently. Slow porcess. The aim is to get to a point where there's no tweaking or changing of anything. It should begin to approximate a mechanical system, even if it's something that cannot be easily coded. I know everything can be coded, but only in theory. It costs a lot of money and all platforms have limitations, especially in regards to working with tick data.
 
"Trading for Beginners - Skate's Practical Guide to Profitable Trading"
A daily series of posts aimed at those just starting out on their trading journey.

57. Trading is all about trends
Trading is a sophisticated and dynamic endeavour that necessitates keeping up to date with market and economic events. Traders should use caution when making decisions based simply on short-term news and statistical data. Traders can increase their chances of success by employing a systematic approach with a trading strategy that incorporates both long-term trends and current market conditions.

It is critical to recognise that the market is not always predictable, and it can be difficult, if not impossible, to predict or understand why the market is acting in a particular way. Political developments, trader emotions, and economic data are all factors that might impact market volatility. As a result, traders must be prepared to adjust their strategy in response to changing market conditions.

Traders usually mimic the actions of other traders, which can lead to herd mentality and momentum trading, which is one explanation for market behaviour. Even if there is no evidence for the movement, this can present an opportunity for traders who can capitalise on these patterns.

Fear can also have a large influence on the market because traders may get apprehensive about the status of the economy, political uncertainty, or other variables that could damage the value of their portfolio. This concern, as well as many other influences, may trigger fear and a selling spree. As a result, traders must remain patient and avoid making rash, impulsive decisions based on short-term market swings.

It's critical to remember that the market can be unpredictable and prone to sharp volatility for a variety of causes. As a result, rather than attempting to predict the market's precise movements, it is critical to maintain discipline and focus on developing a good long-term trading plan and trading strategy that can pick these moments. This can assist traders to lower risk and boost their chances of long-term success.

Traders should also utilise technical analysis to discover probable entry and exit points and analyse market patterns. Technical analysis entails examining past market data, such as price and volume, to identify patterns and trends that can be used to forecast future market moves. This method is very beneficial for recognising short-term trends and making sound decisions based on technical indicators.

Ultimately, trading entails some risk, and no software or technology can guarantee success. It's critical to comprehend market dynamics and to design a trading strategy that takes into consideration market behaviour, and risk tolerance, to give you a fighting chance of survival in this strategic game. Because there are numerous factors that can influence stock prices, probability software can be a valuable tool in analysing trends and patterns to make well-informed trading decisions.

To summarise, trading is not solely about just following trends, successful traders must be knowledgeable about market and economic events, maintain discipline, employ technical analysis, and avoid making hasty decisions based on short-term market swings.

Skate.
 
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Charts tell a story and sometimes it isn't pretty
Charts can be a useful tool for traders since they can provide insight into a position's historical price performance. It is crucial to note, however, that charts cannot convey the entire picture and should be used in conjunction with other technical analysis techniques.

Traders should also be mindful of the limitations of chart analysis. Not all signals will work, and prior performance is no guarantee of future outcomes. As a result, it's critical to have a well-defined trading strategy that incorporates risk management tools like stop-loss orders to help minimise losses in the event of a losing trade.

Overall, charts must be utilised in conjunction with other types of analysis and within the framework of a well-defined trading strategy.

The position taken today (ASX:HAW)
A picture paints a thousand words and (HAW) is worthy of a separate post.



Skate.
 

Captain_Chaza said:
Do you invest /bet the same amount of money on a heavyweight as you do on a Lightweight
What is your "Ship Design" when it comes to the " Size of Sails" ??
Click to expand...

Pyramiding "PositionSize"
I use a technique called pyramiding to ensure that I'm putting every dollar to work in the markets. Pyramiding involves re-balancing my position sizes to reinvest profits and unspent funds. I will also resize down due to losses.

Today's purchases resulted in (-$1,955.13) not being allocated leaving a balance in my trading account of $141,955.13 to be equally divided by the remaining 7 outstanding positions.



The SAP Strategy Parameter Setting
1. The parameter setting (CBA Funds - $) is pre-populated with the outstanding trading account balance.
2. The parameter setting (Positions Required) is pre-populated with seven positions to buy out of a maximum of ten.



To determine the size of my next bet or series of bets
I use a position-sizing technique that calculates the bet size based on the balance of my trading account. The formula for re-balancing is Trading Bank Balance divided by the number of outstanding positions required to fill the portfolio = new PositionSize.

Parameter rebalancing feature
The parameter feature shown above calculates the number of shares to purchase as well as the offer price without any intervention. Trading in my opinion couldn't be simpler.

By using this system of rebalancing, the parameter rebalancing feature adjusts the size of my next bet or series of bets to take advantage of every dollar un-spent. This ensures that my funds are always in the market and that I'm fighting the good fight with every trade.

Skate.
 
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The "Dump it Here" Thread is a Knowledge Sharing Hub
The major purpose of which is to establish an environment in which we can exchange knowledge and ideas in order to improve our trading experiences. Everyone has something meaningful to contribute to the debate as a diverse group of individuals with varying levels of skill.

To maintain a positive and productive atmosphere
Please remember the T.H.I.N.K. principle before posting:

T is for True - Is your information accurate?
H is for Helpful - Does your post contribute positively to the discussion?
I is for Inspiring - Does your contribution encourage others to share their ideas?
N is for Necessary - Is your input relevant to the topic at hand?
K is for Kind - Are you communicating respectfully with others?

While trading is not a "get rich quick" scheme, it has the ability to change your life. The idea is to focus on sharing and learning from one another's experiences rather than proving who is correct or incorrect.

I'm sure all members value varied perspectives in the "Dump it Here" thread and we should encourage all members to step up and have their say. Remember, the purpose is not to confront or mock others, but to create a collaborative environment in which everyone feels comfortable sharing their ideas.

In order for posts to be relevant and evidence-based, supporting information or the rationale behind the comments goes a long way for others to understand your point of view. This technique will enhance the thread's integrity.

When delivered appropriately, constructive criticism can be a wonderful tool for growth. We encourage all members to provide constructive and respectful feedback. By doing so, we can maintain a welcoming and productive environment for all members.

Remember, nobody knows everything, and there's always something new to learn. Let's look at the "Dump it Here" thread as a chance for growth and development while working together to build a dynamic knowledge-sharing hub that benefits everyone, regardless of experience or trading expertise.

Skate.
 


The phone rang and the first words were "How did we go today"?
Just think for a moment how you'd feel if you had a win on the very first day you started trading. It's difficult to express the rush of excitement and enthusiasm I received at the end of the phone when I said we had a small win.

As a non-trader
When he discovered that he had a win, even with a modest profit seemed as though it was a game changer for him. Suddenly, the prospect of generating money in the market became a reality. It was the very same guy who would argue that trading is nothing but gambling & not for him.

The thrill of a win can be very addictive
It was not just about the money, it was more about the sense of success and satisfaction that comes from making a wise financial decision and now he is anxious to repeat the process.

I had to remind him of an old English saying
"One swallow doesn't make a summer" and then I had to explain to him that a "single instance" of something is just that, "it doesn't indicate anything meaningful" (yet).

For those also wondering












Skate.
 
"Trading for Beginners - Skate's Practical Guide to Profitable Trading"
A daily series of posts aimed at those just starting out on their trading journey.

58. There is more to trading than buying a position
Trading is an exciting and dynamic endeavour that requires a high level of commitment, knowledge, and discipline. Many people believe that trading is simply buying a position and waiting for its value to rise, but this is only the tip of the iceberg.

In truth, trading is much more than simply buying a position. Successful trading also requires risk management, monitoring the market and economic trends, whilst having a great deal of self-control. Grasping these subtleties can mean the difference between success and failure in this game.

Unfortunately, there are numerous trading horror stories, with some traders making poor decisions or lacking a solid trading plan or approach, while others may simply have lost focus. Traders can boost their chances of success and reduce their risk exposure by staying on top of everything they do.

One of the most crucial aspects of trading to comprehend is that "trading" is all about risk management. This means that traders must carefully control their risk exposure to avoid losing more money than they can afford.

Market analysis is another key aspect of trading. Traders must be able to analyse market patterns to optimise when to buy and when to sell positions. This requires a thorough understanding of technical analysis, as well as the ability to stay current on market news and trends.

There are no guarantees in trading, but using a disciplined approach to trading with a solid trading plan and strategy can help traders limit their risks and increase their chances of success. Traders can build a solid financial future by learning from the mistakes of others and avoiding common mistakes.

Successful traders have a set of trading rules that they follow regardless of how the market behaves. Fear, greed, and overconfidence can all play a role in why traders lose money when they trade. Humans are wired to react rather than respond to situations, which can lead to illogical behaviour and poor decisions.

Developing a solid trading strategy is one method to regulate emotions and limit risks. Having a defined trading plan allows traders to avoid rash decisions and adhere to their trading strategy. A successful trader needs to have a strong mindset to stay focused and disciplined in the face of adversity.

Another essential tool for traders is technical analysis, which allows them to define exact entry and exit criteria. Technical analysis entails examining past market data, such as price and volume, to identify patterns and trends that can be used to forecast future market moves. This method is very beneficial for recognising short-term trends and making sound decisions based on technical indicators.

System trading allows you to manage your emotions by alleviating some of the stress of trading. Emotional biases and illogical behaviour can cause traders to lose money but success can be increased by applying a "systematic approach".

To summarise, trading entails far more than simply purchasing a position. It's a complicated and exciting field that requires a high level of commitment. Successful traders must carefully control their risk exposure, analyse market trends, have a strong attitude to trading discipline, and staying dedicated to the process. Traders can boost their chances of success by recognising these intricacies by focusing on the big picture.

Skate.
 
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When I read something I like to highlight key points that I think are important and as an example I will do this with @Skate's previous post (58);

One of the most crucial aspects of trading to comprehend is that "trading" is all about risk management. This means that traders must carefully control their risk exposure to avoid losing more money than they can afford.

Market analysis is another key aspect of trading. Traders must be able to analyse market patterns to optimise when to buy and when to sell positions. This requires a thorough understanding of technical analysis, as well as the ability to stay current on market news and trends.

Traders can boost their chances of success by recognising these intricacies by focusing on the big picture.

New traders (all traders) can at times find themselves suffering from information overload, I have found that the above technique is one way to focus what you want to think about more deeply, and then after giving your highlighted points more thought a reread of the entire article can harvest a greater understanding.
 
DaveTrade said:
New traders (all traders) can at times find themselves suffering from information overload
Click to expand...

When you're new to trading, it's easy to get overwhelmed by the sheer amount of trading resources available. From YouTube to the barrage of Twitter comments, that can be intimidating. Unfortunately, not all of this information is correct or useful.

There are many self-proclaimed trading "gurus" out there selling something that does not work. Be aware of trading strategies or systems that guarantee unreasonable returns without providing an accurate detailed explanation of their performance.

To succeed in trading, stick to the basics, such as risk management, discipline, and patience. Trading is not a get-rich-quick scheme, and success requires hard work and dedication and it's a lot easier to do than others make it out to be. With time and experience, beginners will be able to filter out the noise and find the resources and strategies that work best for them.

So, tomorrow's daily post will be about "Unreliable Information" and how to avoid it.

Skate.
 
"Trading for Beginners - Skate's Practical Guide to Profitable Trading"
A daily series of posts aimed at those just starting out on their trading journey.

59. Unreliable Information
Trading is difficult and frequently unpredictable, and one of the most difficult obstacles traders confront is interpreting the amount of untrustworthy information available online. Traders have access to a tremendous amount of information in today's fast-paced and interconnected world, but not all of it is true or dependable.

When making financial decisions based on watching and reading what's posted on the internet, traders should exercise caution and be cautious, since incorrect information and sensationalised stories can lead to bad results and losses.

To reduce the hazards of untrustworthy information, traders should first recognise that not all information is created equal. Not all sources of information are reliable, and even those that are might be incorrect at times.

Before making any trading decisions, it is critical to assess the quality and dependability of the information. This can be accomplished by cross-referencing the information with other sources to validate its accuracy.

Furthermore, traders should seek out alternative thoughts and ideas while using discretion and discipline to assess the relevancy and quality of the information offered. It's also critical to be conscious of any potential biases in the information you're using. Look for information that is presented objectively and impartially and be wary of anything that appears to be advancing a particular agenda.

Technical analysis is one method for filtering out the noise of untrustworthy information. The process of evaluating charts and other market data to discover trends and patterns is known as technical analysis. Rather than relying entirely on external sources of information, this can assist traders in focusing on underlying market trends and making more informed decisions based on actual market data.

To be effective in trading, you must also be enthusiastic and curious about the subject. When traders have a genuine passion for trading, they are more inclined to learn more and persevere through trading's ups and downs.

It is important to remember that trading is always risky, even with good information. While having good information might be beneficial, even seasoned traders can make mistakes and lose money. It is critical to implement a sound risk management strategy and to be willing to take losses when they arise.

You can avoid the traps of faulty information and establish a successful trading strategy by minimising your risk exposure and focusing on long-term success. Successful traders recognise the need for discipline, effort, and persistence in reaching their objectives.

In conclusion, trading with untrustworthy information might be difficult, but with the appropriate trading strategy and mindset, traders can boost their chances of success by being passionate and curious about trading. To stay up to speed with the latest information and trends, it's critical to constantly self-educate to successfully navigate the complexities of trading.

Skate.
 
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"Trading for Beginners - Skate's Practical Guide to Profitable Trading"
A daily series of posts aimed at those just starting out on their trading journey.

60. New Trading Ideas
While it's normal to be curious about other traders, it's crucial to also develop an interest in new trading concepts. A richer comprehension of the trading world might result from exploring new ideas and new ways of thinking about trading.

Before you start trading, you should learn the foundations of trading and gain a strong understanding of various trading strategies and techniques. Here are three typical old trading ideas that you can make new again using technical analysis.

Trend trading entails detecting and tracking a market's broad trend. This strategy assumes that the market will continue to go in the same way as it is now. Technical analysis is commonly used by trend traders to spot trends and make trading decisions. This method is suitable for those just starting out because it is simple to grasp and apply.

Swing trading involves holding positions for a few days to a few weeks, utilising technical analysis to recognise patterns and profit from short-term price fluctuations, although it does require a solid trading plan and strict risk management to avoid substantial losses.

Pattern trading also uses technical analysis to detect recurrent market patterns such as reverse head and shoulders or bullish flag patterns. Pattern traders use these patterns to find specific entry and exit points to make winning trades. This approach is useful for those just starting out because it is simple to understand and apply.

However, keep in mind that trading is always risky, and beginners should have a sound risk management strategy in place. Traders must also be willing to accept losses and learn from their mistakes in order to improve their trading performance.

Trend trading, swing trading, and pattern trading are common trading strategies. For those who want to dip their toe into system trading to hone their trading skills and abilities before moving on to something better is at least a start.

Beginners can lay a solid foundation for successful trading by beginning with these ideas and subsequently expanding their knowledge and expertise over time. As a final warning, to protect your capital and to reduce losses, always trade with caution and adopt a risk management strategy that you are comfortable with.

Skate.
 
I can not imagine how worry I would be to have such a phone exchange.
As we all know, there is no such thing as a linear win curve or a guaranteed win on any system.any period but on a term deposit
Having someone be it family, friend reacting like that would ring alarm bells right and left.
Not mature enough imho to handle any dd , let alone a loss on a multi week period I would dare to say:
"We are losing.." or
" we / you should have sold last week, I have lost 3k since...
Does not augure well and you will have to use all your pedagogic skills...
A reason I would never invest on behalf of anyone else, hard enough to play the common shared savings of our couple ...hope it will end well but concerned
 
After writing and reviewing today's post, I realised it lacked trading content. Despite having spent time composing the post, I've opted to leave it up in the hopes that it would be useful to others who share my worries.

Our education system needs a rethink
Traditional schooling may not always give the necessary skills and information to manage an ever-changing world, but education is critical for individual growth and development.

One of the old educational system's primary flaws is its emphasis on conformity and compliance rather than uniqueness and innovation. The current educational system places a great focus on memorisation, asking students to recite facts and figures without necessarily understanding the importance or context of their relevance.

Students capacity to think critically and creatively can be hampered by this emphasis on memorisation. Sticking to existing rules and conventions rather than trying out fresh ideas and ways of thinking has the potential to suppress creativity. Doing so impedes the development of critical thinking skills, both of which are required for innovation and problem-solving.

Critical thinking is also a skill that can be polished and improved with practice. Teachers may encourage critical thinking in their students by asking open-ended questions, encouraging them to analyse and evaluate information, and allowing discussion and debate.

To overcome these issues, the educational system must rethink and alter its method of teaching in order to foster active learning, critical thinking, and problem-solving. Pupils should be encouraged to think for themselves, to ask questions, and to question accepted conventions and ideas.

In order to encourage actual learning, the learning process must be engaging and entertaining. It is not enough to simply give knowledge, students must be actively involved and interested in the topic in order to really absorb and retain it. Hands-on activities, group work, and project-based learning might all be incorporated into the curriculum.

Finally, the educational system must be altered in order to provide students with the skills and information they need to navigate a complex and rapidly changing world. Encouraging critical thinking, active learning, and creativity will result in a more dynamic and successful educational system that supports the growth of creative and independent thinkers.

Skate.
 
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"Trading for Beginners - Skate's Practical Guide to Profitable Trading"
A daily series of posts aimed at those just starting out on their trading journey.

61. Using technology
Anyone can now become a trader thanks to technological advancements. For advice and information on the investment process in the past, the typical trader had to rely on brokers, financial advisors, social media, and the media. But with the emergence of internet trading platforms, people now have more access to information and resources that can aid in their decision-making.

The decisions we make about our finances are ultimately our own. While it may be tempting to follow other's advice, it's crucial to take responsibility for our own financial destiny and make deliberate decisions in light of our own research and analysis.

Technology & the internet creates new options for people to take charge of their financial future. Anyone may become a successful trader and reach their financial objectives by fusing technology with education and personal responsibility.

Many traders aren't aware of the different trading tools they can employ, and some may not even know how to do so. Missed opportunities and poor trading decisions may result from this. Traders should familiarise themselves with the many possibilities available and look for information and tools that will assist them in making trading decisions.

It's vital to understand that there are chances for smaller traders. Traders who have the correct information and trading strategy can make good returns on even small investments.

When it comes to trading, it's crucial to have reasonable expectations. While big profits are possible, doing so often entails taking on higher amounts of risk. Instead of trying to strike it rich with a single trade, traders should strive to make stable, consistent gains over the longer term.

Successful trading involves self-control and a long-term perspective as traders should concentrate on creating a strong trading strategy, adhering to it, and resisting the need to act on impulse or out of emotion.

After buying a position, many traders fail to recognise the significance of effectively managing them. But doing this can be crucial to succeeding in the stock market. As I maintain, selling at a precise time determines how profitable a trader you will be.

Skate.
 
the powers in charge definitively do not want this to happen..look at the covid saga and ongoing laws, coming minister of truth etc.
The dummer the population the easier to manipulate and rob , nothing new in the scale of history as demonstrated by various royalties and religion leaders since BC but a sad trend after the latest 100y of what will be remembered as the golden age
 
"Trading for Beginners - Skate's Practical Guide to Profitable Trading"
A daily series of posts aimed at those just starting out on their trading journey.

62. Managing trading positions
It is critical to overcome the fear of selling in order to efficiently manage trading positions. Rather than holding onto a position in the hope of seeing it improve, it is best to sell when it is no longer performing as expected. This requires a well-defined exit strategy that corresponds to your risk tolerance and personal preferences.

It is important for traders to understand that there is no one-size-fits-all method to trading and it's imperative to develop their own strategy appropriately. Long-term success requires learning from losses and altering strategies in response to changing market conditions. Strategy improvements are always ongoing.

While knowledge is vital, putting that information into practice is what produces outcomes. Trading success, like success in every other field, needs not only knowledge but also action.

Traders should expect losses, trading errors, and setbacks along the way. Learning from these experiences and fine-tuning their strategy accordingly can go a long way to achieving long-term trading success. The ability to adapt based on knowledge and experience is a valuable asset for building wealth over time.

Despite the number of trading analysis resources available, such as trading books, YouTube, Twitter, and dedicated websites, many traders struggle to regularly earn a profit. Nonetheless, traders can boost their chances of success and reach their trading objectives with dedication, enthusiasm, and gained experience.

The truth is that most traders who try to make money through trading will fall short. This is caused by a variety of reasons, including the market's high degree of unpredictability, the complexity of the market, and the impact of emotions on a trader's decision-making process.

Skate.
 
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