This is a mobile optimized page that loads fast, if you want to load the real page, click this text.

Dump it Here

What's the point of today's posts?
Well, for one It proves none of us have a crystal ball or a strategy that works all the time. IMHO, @peter2 has nailed his style of trading as his main structure is built around capital preservation & his results for the last 12 months demonstrate how successful he has been.

Death by a thousand cuts
Nick on the other hand believes to be profitable you need to remain disciplined & focused on the long game. I'm sure Nick would be doing a bit of soul searching to establish if he could have done better while sticking with the long game. Nick focuses on percentages & goes to extreme lengths to explain the emotional pull concentrating on dollar figures can have on your trading. His advice is to focus on the process & you'll be a much better trader

It’s tough to be a trend follower
The truth is, most traders give up or don’t take the next signal after a series of losses whereas Nick keeps pulling the trigger even after a multitude of losing trades.

Skate.
 
Last edited:
Back-testing to me has always been a waste of time as it can only be repeated in the exact same conditions
I did Chemistry in my Matriculation year and as any Chemist will tell you
All testing can only be done in a vacuum
Ie:No Weather and Sea Variations
ie No Climate Change
No Political Changes / Wars
No Covid /Bird Flu and Plagues etc
and then
Most importantly you have the Mental Health of each Captain ,his Crew their Wives and Children ,extended families and close friends

Come to think about it a lot more
"I don't think you could even do a respectable Back-test on trading in a Vacuum"

Crikey!
I hear People in NSW and QLD are experiencing 100 year floods based on statistics and some have had THREE (3) 100 year floods this year

So much for making the same % gains/losses as yesterday/ yester-month yesteryear/ and even decades ago

Has anyone here ever learnt anything from Back-testing?

 
Has anyone here ever learnt anything from Back-testing?

@Captain_Chaza,I definitely have. All my trading strategies are built around the results. The correct procedure in carrying out a Backtest will make a great topic for another day

For all others
The Rugby is about to start. Go the wallabies. The opening was spectacular to say the least.

Skate.
 
Good morning Skate,
Unfortunately Wallabies, lost to England 21 - 17. Do note however, Ireland beat the All Blacks in a 3 test series on NZ soil. Unbelievable, doesn't normally happen. Great effort to the Irish!!!

Aussie, Michael Matthews claimed the 14th stage of the 2022 Tour de France.

Kind regards
rcw1
 
Thanks for the info, investtrader!
I'm a newby to trading and still have my trainer wheels on so happy to hear Nick is worth listening to.
I will check out his site and add what I can to my knowledge base.
I took quite a few pages of notes from the podcast and from these notes a ticked a few avenues to explore.
For example Nick's focus on "only industrials and not top 100 stocks but within top 500" is worth following up.

At present I am working my way through Dr Bandy's Quantitative Technical Analysis.
I like his rigorous scientific approach to building models and that he speaks from a lot practical experience and that he has high academic qualifications.
So far I have got two models up and running in Python, one that scans many stocks looking for possible candidates.
The other model has a Dashboard that displays some technical indicators and provides Buy/Sell/Do Nothing flags and allows me to focus on a particular stock.
It's early days and I can't brag about any spectacular results yet, just promising results.
If the model loses at least I can say I lost systematically rather than haphazardly!
 
Is there a period in history similar?
Rising inflation, limited trade, shortages, covid disruption, European war.

Maybe the late 70s if you treat strikes as similar to covid, not really though.
Unique times.
 
"This country is run by 46 dictators who run pension funds. I’ve got to conform my business practices to suit them – otherwise I get sacked."

That quote is possibly the problem with the whole of the developed world these past 20 years.

 
G’day boys and girls—been out of the loop recently and just checking back in. Seems to be a few posts about Nick here. Coincidently I notice from Nick’s twitter feed tonight he isn’t a happy Jan as someone on a “forum” has been slagging off at him…hope it isn’t ASF ?
 
I reckon this is the post @Skate ?
 

Nah, I read all the posts & there is no slagging him off
There isn't anything in the posts that would have upset him. Nick is either a current or former member of this forum & I'm sure he would be the first to correct any misunderstandings or false perceptions of any member. When posting in cryptic ways it's hard to understand a question let alone a response. It doesn’t matter whether or not you intend to mislead people – it’s about the overall impression your post creates when it’s viewed.

I reckon this is the post @Skate ?

@MovingAverage, I remarked that Nick answered "6Fanboi" who by the way is a member of this forum in a misleading way as his answer didn't bear scrutiny in my opinion. I believe the answer was misleading because his answer didn't make sense to me. If it didn't make sense to me, I'm sure it would confuse others. To avoid this I made a series of posts for others to under from where I was coming from.

It's there for all to see
The WTT is a weekly strategy displayed on a daily chart. So does anyone really believe his answer? I'm just saying if you post something on Twitter that's fine as long as what you claim can stand up to scrutiny.

@MovingAverage please give me your take
Looks at the chart & then read Nick's answer & tell me you understand it. I would love to hear your comments.

Read my full explanation here




Summary
No, I don't think there are any posts that would upset him in any way. It's most likely another forum.

Skate.
 
Last edited:
Is there a period in history similar?
Rising inflation, limited trade, shortages, covid disruption, European war.

Maybe the late 70s if you treat strikes as similar to covid, not really though.
Unique times.

This is a current chart for the ASX, All Ordinaries
I could have picked any index or any individual stock & the chart will all resemble each other in such a way the bars fluctuate "the bars go up & they go down". Pick any chart, any periodicity, or any period in the past & the "bar fluctuations" would all look the same. I could have blacked out the information & one chart would look like all others. Taking advantage of the blue bars & passing on the red is a simple concept when applying your funds in the markets.





Take this one




Or this






@entropy nailed it
If you trade haphazardly you are gambling. Trading systematically gives you a fighting chance.

If the model loses at least I can say I lost systematically rather than haphazardly!





In Summary
Trading is all about riding moves. Technical Analysis tries to time both the entry & the exit.

Skate.
 
The correct procedure in carrying out a Backtest will make a great topic for another day

Don't get fooled by those who post backtest results
Unless the methodology is explained, "what's the use". Backtest results can confuse & mislead easily. Recently I've noticed graphical representation of backtesting of systems over 10 or 20 years & the satistical accumulated profit is around 20 million dollars if not more. @Sir Burr & @debtfree recently discussed the true value of the backtest results when Tax was factored in. It's a good read & the post can be found here.


But leaving that aside
I would rather concentrate on why backtesting results are not to be relied on to make you extremely wealthy. Let's face it, we have all done these types of backtests & after a decade or so, it shows that by trading this system you would have accumulated an extreme amount, but in reality, it's rarely the case.

Skate.
 
Backtest & how to backtest has been done to death
I was intending to make a series of detailed posts on how to backtest correctly, then go on to explain how to analyse those results. Also, a separate topic would be to explain why "in sample & out of sample" testing is so important for the usefulness of their results as @entropy recently touch upon. Sometimes an explanation "why" out-of-sample (OOS) results are the only results worth taking notice of.

In saying this
Making a few posts in this manner about system analysis would not only be exhausting to read but extremely boring at the same time. Society is now conditioned to have information presented to them in smaller chunks (sound bites), as it's less time-consuming & easier to absorb because of the short attention span we all tend to have these days.

Skate.
 
Let's start off with "Position sizing" (Amibroker)
Position sizing defines the method that will be used by the "Monte Carlo simulator" during backtest, so be careful with this setting. When backtesting you can use any variety of methods to position size (the size of your next bet) but as a word of warning you use should use the method you are actually intending to trade.

The biggest mistake when backtesting
Is using a "percent of portfolio equity" to position the size of your bet. Why? because after a few years of profitable trading the next size of your next bets will accumulate to an unrealistic figure, an amount you wouldn't be able to execute. I'll post an Equity curve to demonstrate the results achieved using both methods later.

Skate.
 
# Fixed Dollar Size #
Using a fixed dollar amount should be the standard when backtesting as it allows you to maintain a constant value across all bets when opening a trade. Doing it this way the results will be more realistic & achievable.

# Percent of equity #
This uses a defined percent of the current simulated equity value. Be careful when using this setting as it causes the position size to be dependent on profits on previous trades (compounding profits) & creates serial dependence. It may also lead to an extra compounding effect when you have overlapping trades in your original backtest as bootstrap performs trades sequentially (so they don't overlap). For this reason, its use is limited to cases when no overlapping trades occur.



Same Strategy same Backtest
The backtest is from 2015 to today, Why? It's the period I have been trading. It should be easy to spot the difference "Position Sizing" makes to the backtest results. One is realistic where the other isn't.




The Equity Curve comparison
Since 2015, I would have accumulated millions in profit whereas, in reality, this figure would "slightly" differ.



Skate.
 
Best practices
To remove risks of serial correlation affecting the results of Monte Carlo simulation it is highly encouraged to use fixed position sizing (fixed dollar value of trades), so it does not affect the profit/loss due to compounding.

Summary
Just make sure that you use fixed-position sizing for the calculations when backtesting to eliminate the effect of compounding. Eliminating the compounding effect, the results will be accurate, constant, believable & achievable.

Skate.
 
I assume for the second run you have used Max Positions also? This also give unrealistic results. The drawdown in later years is wrong IMHO. You have 500k of capital and only investing 100k. Check the exposure figure to confirm.
 
I assume for the second run you have used Max Positions also? This also give unrealistic results. The drawdown in later years is wrong IMHO. You have 500k of capital and only investing 100k. Check the exposure figure to confirm.

@investtrader, thank you for taking an interest in my posts today
I just want to say, in today's posts I'm talking about backtesting, & strategy analysis. I also pointed out that you can fall into the trap of achieving inaccurate, overstated results through one option setting.

I prefer when backtesting to use a fixed dollar amount
But when I'm live trading, I use another method to overcome the issues you have raised. I explained earlier that I would keep this series of posts short & snappy, without going into detail as it just turns people off reading them.

I'm now talking about live trading & position sizing
There are different ways to position size other than fixed dollar amounts when you are trading a live account. The benefits are there when you have a limited supply of trading capital. Like most, I have my way of "rebalancing my position size". Let's call it my next "bet size" as it's less confusing using this terminology. I've made over 20 posts on how I rebalance my next series of bets (with graphics) for those interested. All you have to do is search so I don't have to explain it again.

Amibroker "Exploration Analysis"
Allows you to modify your next bet size with a simple line of code no matter the balance of your outstanding funds not in the markets. Rebalancing is simply calculating the dollar size of the next bet or series of bets & it works both ways, the bet will either increase or decrease according to the trading funds available.

Skate.
 
What is a trading system?
Basically, when it comes to system trading using technical analysis it's simply your trading rules mathematically coded to help you time the entry & when to exit a position. As @investtrader just pointed out there is much more to consider when your money is on the line. But, the best part is you get to create all rules that fit your own risk profile.

Blatant plug
If you are a beginner take advantage of my free eBook if you are thinking about becoming a trader. The eBook, "Trading Fundamentals - Skate's Beginners Version" explains the dangers of trading & a lot more. Also, reading it might give you ideas before you begin your journey. If my eBooks get you excited, keep your interest & read this thread as I'm sure the additional tips from others will help you become a successful trader.

Trading Fundamentals - Skate's Beginners Version (eBook link below)
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1014728/

Skate.
 
Cookies are required to use this site. You must accept them to continue using the site. Learn more...