Dump it Here

[Skate]

@Skate FFX this time instead of LKE - nick doesn't give much away though

FFF+View attachment 144063

Sorry @soren_lorensen but I have to call bullsh!t on this one
For a start that's a "Daily Chart" so it's not Nick's WTT with a Radge tweak. Mate, I can tell you exactly what he has done to his code to achieve that results, it's not rocket science, boarding on being sloppy.

I'm shouting !!!
Nick has posted that chart with a motive.

Proof
This is my version of not Nick's (WTT) Strategy but a mongrelised Daily version (DTT) to replicate Nick's buy & sell signals. I believe Nick should be called out. I'm replying to your post so others can understand how he is manipulating the charts he's posting in his Twitter Feed.

Why is Nick doing it?
Well, that's for him to explain. It's not the first time he has posted misleading information & charts. @Sean K called him out years ago for posting unaudited results & to be fair Nick is registered & in the industry.



Skate.

 

[Skate]

....but likes to show his cherries

Yes @Sir Burr, I have to agree
Nick blatantly misled " 6Fanboi" when he replied that the signals were from his WTT, which stands for (Weekend Trend Trader) BTW & not (DTT) which stands for (Daily Trend Trader). Nick also said it was the (WTT) with a Radge twist. Nah, that's "Bullsh!t".

I may be wrong
But I don't think so. The chart Nick has posted is a mongrelised version of his WTT but trading on a daily periodicity. Just to be clear & their is no confusion, the chart Nick posted in his Twitter feed is a "DAILY CHART". You can also tell by his Index Filter Ribbon colour.

ASIC is cracking down on those who mislead or deceive

Discussing financial products and services online | ASIC

asic.gov.au

Misleading or deceptive (from the hyperlink above)​

The law prohibits conduct that is misleading or deceptive, or likely to mislead or deceive, in relation to financial products or services. It doesn’t matter whether or not you intend to mislead people – it’s about the overall impression your post creates when it’s viewed.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

My two biggest peeves
1. Getting unsolicited emails.
2. Reading blatant sales information that is designed to deceive.

Before anyone challenges me, it's not about Nick or any ASF member
The comments below are not directed at anyone, in particular, they are general in nature. I'm making this post as a follow-up warning so others understand that not everything they read is to be relied upon to make a financial decision to purchase a product or service that they may later regret.

Misleading or deceptive conduct
Most of us would understand the term “misleading or deceptive” to some degree. Whether you use the phrase "misleading or deceptive" or "likely to mislead or deceive", is just splitting hairs. Those phrases will be used by ASIC to determine if follow-up action is required. Basically, it means ASIC wants those within the industry to clean up their act as well as financial influences

It's clear to me
There are some who try to influence others to buy financial products by posting questionable material. I'm just saying, those who post financial material have an obligation to ensure whatever claims they make are able to be substantiated. Don't forget it also has to be "true & accurate" information as well.

Failing to provide correct information can also be misleading & deceptive
Failing to provide correct information or simply answer a question "incorrectly" can be found to be "misleading or deceptive".

Misrepresentation can influence purchasing decisions of products or services
Incomplete or misleading information also contravenes ASIC guidelines as the information being posted can be mistaken for an accurate & true representation of financial services or products being offered for sale. It's also “misleading or deceptive” if you don't take the steps to correct the mistaken belief others may form while reading the material.

In summary
1. Apply common sense when buying financial products or services.
2. Ensure any claims are properly substantiated.
3. Never remain silent if there is any indication that the claim smells of "Bullsh!t".
4. Don’t be afraid to challenge a provider if you believe the information they are distributing is misleading or deceptive.
5. If you are concerned that posts are misleading or deceptive "report them".

Skate.

 

[Skate]

@Skate FFX this time instead of LKE - nick doesn't give much away though

FFF+View attachment 144063

I forgot to mention
I usually respond quickly if posts reference me by name or make a reference to one of my posts.

A slow response
In my defense, I only read @soren_lorensen post after the "State of Origin", thus the delay in correcting the error "as I saw it" in respect of a repost of Nick's Twitter feed. I have put my case "why" I called the "repost" bullsh!t.

Skate.

 

[qldfrog]

I forgot to mention
I usually respond quickly if posts reference me by name or make a reference to one of my posts.

A slow response
In my defense, I only read @soren_lorensen post after the "State of Origin", thus the delay in correcting the error "as I saw it" in respect of a repost of Nick's Twitter feed. I have put my case "why" I called the "repost" bullsh!t.

Skate.

It was getting late Mr Skate
As i read it @soren_lorensen who i do not really know, just seem to repost this data to give you one more ticker to compare?
So i am surprisingly kinder on that Soren'spost
Do not shot the messenger?
But yes,if this can put ASF in trouble, let's remove it
Well spotted from you to detect the misleading statement from Nick Radge, and yes a bit saddened as i respect Nick as the author of the unholy grail book .
Note: i have no $ interest /feud with fellow local Nick Radge, nor am a customer of his online products.just bought his book.
His systems got hit severely recently by the market. He is not alone, i have been smashed..and he might maybe be in a PR overdrive. .overreached..
Human even if not excusable

 

[Skate]

@soren_lorensen, I'm calling for your post to be removed
@Joe Blow, I request @soren_lorensen repost of "The Chartist" Twitter feed be removed

Resolution
I have just been informed that the post in question has been removed.



Skate.

 

[Skate]

For Comparison
We all know capturing a move is hard, & getting off promptly when momentum changes is even harder.

For this example
I'm posting 3 Daily charts for (ASX:FFX) so you can be the judge. In saying this, the "Ducati Blue Bar Strategy" is uncanny in picking such moves.

#1. WTT with Radge Tweaks
In @ $0.374 - Out @ $0.514




#2. Skate's DDT using the same Radge's Tweaks
In @ $0.374 - Out @ $0.514




#3. "The Ducati Blue Bar Strategy
In @ $0.31 - Out @ $0.514



Trading is all about profitability
Let me walk you through two examples - the first two charts in order (#1. WTT with Radge Tweaks & #2. Skate's DDT using the same Radge's Tweaks) versus "The Ducati Blue Bar Strategy" - shown in Chart #3.

Trade Profit
1. For a $10,000 investment with (Charts #1 & # Chart 2) - the opening price would have purchased 26,737 shares @ $0.374 & selling those shares @ $0.514 - this would have netted a profit of $13,742
2. For a $10,000 investment with (Chart #3) - the opening price would have purchased 32,258 shares @ $ $0.31 & selling those shares @ $0.514 - this would have netted a profit of $16,500

Summary
I'm calling "The Ducati Blue Bar Strategy" the winner.

Skate.

 

[peter2]

Note: FFX demerged a significant part of their business and floated LLL (Leo Lithium). Record date 6th June 2022.

The price bars do represent the historical price action but the values do not.
The prices shown in all the FFX charts (prior to 6 June 2022) in the prior posts have been adjusted DOWN as a result of this demerger.
The percentage increases shown in the example trades are in fact misleading as the price of FFX at the time was much higher.

 

[soren_lorensen]

hey guys, just posted for comment on Nicks tweet for info/further comment etc - I though you guys would be interested..

if that post has broken any rules then i'm happy for it to be removed as necessary..

i read the posts here on nick's LKE post on twitter and thread here back a bit and was providing a screencap for a new comparison on FFX

my trading twitter handle is @6fanboi, that is me; i wanted 61.8fanboi but for some reason twitter doesn't like the period or lenght

I asked nick as i follow him on twitter and very occassionaly ask him a question or comment on his posts there, in fact when i was reading the posts in here a few pages back, i was thinking why doesn't skate just tweet to Nick to ask him - rather that waste all that time reverse engineering - but some people love that, I guess skate is one of those people.

My question to N.Radge was in connection to whether his uses 20% stop based on highest high or close of weekly bar and my comment - 'he doesn't give much away' meant he only replied in general (which is fair enough) he calls his radge tweak. Highest high was mentioned by one of the members in here, but i dont remember if that a part of the WTT book method?

fyi i don't sub the chartist or use any of their systems, though i have bought the wtt 20 or 30page ebook and created my own code.

incidentally nick posted today about LKE (same ride em up not down etc) as there's been some activity on that stock with JCAP short report and response by LKE this morning, LKE has been smashed recently with the director moving on and selling shares.

anyway apologies and carry on, look forward to future discussions.

i'm not on here often so sorry if delayed.

 

[entropy]

Thanks for the interesting discussion Skate!

As a newby I'm always appreciative of the time and effort put in contributors like you and others in this thread.

Apologies in advance if my ramble strays a bit from your central points.

I knew nothing of Nick Radge so Google led me to his site and then to an hour and a half Q&A podcast in a series "Chat With Traders" 178. The Blueprint: How To Create A Simple Trend Following System.

Nick came across as a pleasant personality and I took a few notes as he discussed his methods.
He thought share prices were "a fractal" and disclosed that he was a long-only equity trend follower whose goal was to beat the buy/hold strategy using an automated systematic approach.

His method he said did not look at any charts.

He said he used a "Regime Filter" so that he avoids trading if a broad index is falling.
He trades the smaller cap industrial stocks only: those stocks outside the top 100 list but within the top 500 list.
To be a trade the stock must meet some minimum volume criteria over the preceding 50 days.

Some discussion around "using linear numbers" as inputs was confusing for me.

A jarring note for me was when the interviewer asked him about how he used in-sample data and out-of-sample data
in establishing his model validity.
Nick's reply was that "was optimization" and he did not do this.
I found this a big worry.
Anyone doing basic statistics and machine learning knows the vital need to use hold out samples to check your model.
Industry standard in machine learning is two holdout samples one for model development (validation sample) and the other a final sample (test sample) that is completely quarantined from the rest of the data.

Harking back to my forensic days I like to poke about so the disclosures on his site:

THE CHARTIST PTY LTD, PO BOX 721 NOOSA HEADS QLD 4567

THE CHARTIST PTY LTD IS A CORPORATE AUTHORISED REPRESENTATIVE (CAR NO. 1282007) OF SHARTRU WEALTH MANAGEMENT PTY LTD ABN 46 158 536 871, AFSL 422409.

led me to

Shartru Wealth Management Pty Ltd (SWM) is licenced by ASIC with Australian Financial Services Licence Number 422 409.
If you are not inclined to operate your own licence, then SWM can authorise you to operate under its licence.

Dun & Bradstreet shows:
Shartru Wealth Management Pty Ltd
Address: 14 MACQUARIE STREET BELMONT, NEW SOUTH WALES, 2280 Australia

so it appears Nick does not have his own Australian Financial Services Licence but operates under SWM.

 

[elbee]

Trade Profit
1. For a $10,000 investment with (Charts #1 & # Chart 2) - the opening price would have purchased 26,737 shares @ $0.374 & selling those shares @ $0.514 - this would have netted a profit of $13,742
2. For a $10,000 investment with (Chart #3) - the opening price would have purchased 32,258 shares @ $ $0.31 & selling those shares @ $0.514 - this would have netted a profit of $16,500

You should check your maths or your understanding of "profit".
Your post is somewhat misleading.

 

[investtrader]

@entropy wrote -

"A jarring note for me was when the interviewer asked him about how he used in-sample data and out-of-sample data
in establishing his model validity.
Nick's reply was that "was optimization" and he did not do this.
I found this a big worry.
Anyone doing basic statistics and machine learning knows the vital need to use hold out samples to check your model."

I think you are barking up the wrong tree here. You are implying Nick has no idea what he is doing in regards to system testing which is just misleading. I hung out on the old Reefcap forum many years ago and there is no way you are interpreting what he said correctly. I am sure @tech/a will back me up on this also.

I am concerned with Nicks tweets as @Skate has been discussing. But I don't like to see someone 'piling' on by writing clearly incorrect statements. I don't subscribe and I haven't bought any of his systems.

Being an authorised rep for another firm's AFSL is a standard practice in this industry.

 

[Skate]

You should check your maths or your understanding of "profit".
Your post is somewhat misleading.

@elbee thank you for bringing this to my attention, subtracting the initial investment would have been handy. I've remarked previously that I have a failing of not proofreading. I know if I get most of the posts correct, members will surely work out the rest.

When I get it wrong
There are plenty lining up to point out my shortcomings. I should proofread my posts but at my age, I don't have the time. As Sweet Brown famously said "ain't nobody got time for that"

Why don't I proofread
It's much better expressed by Ms Sweet Brown. I'm absolutely amazed how she made a ton of money from this one interview?


The original interview




The mixed version of the interview



Skate.

 

[investtrader]

@Skate - that gives me the perfect opportunity to post barking dog man and succulent chinese meal guy !

 

[entropy]

@entropy wrote -

"A jarring note for me was when the interviewer asked him about how he used in-sample data and out-of-sample data
in establishing his model validity.
Nick's reply was that "was optimization" and he did not do this.
I found this a big worry.
Anyone doing basic statistics and machine learning knows the vital need to use hold out samples to check your model."

I think you are barking up the wrong tree here. You are implying Nick has no idea what he is doing in regards to system testing which is just misleading. I hung out on the old Reefcap forum many years ago and there is no way you are interpreting what he said correctly. I am sure @tech/a will back me up on this also.

I am concerned with Nicks tweets as @Skate has been discussing. But I don't like to see someone 'piling' on by writing clearly incorrect statements. I don't subscribe and I haven't bought any of his systems.

Being an authorised rep for another firm's AFSL is a standard practice in this industry.

Thank you for your response investtrader.

I wrote:
"I knew nothing of Nick Radge so Google led me to his site and then to an hour and a half Q&A podcast in a series "Chat With Traders" 178. The Blueprint: How To Create A Simple Trend Following System.
Nick came across as a pleasant personality and I took a few notes as he discussed his methods."

Hardly "piling on". My comments about the podcast were mostly quite positive apart from the one you are upset by!
"Piling on" is a complete exaggeration.
And I took several pages of notes as well as he had some useful things to say.

I gave the location of the interview for anyone else to check the accuracy of my reporting and I listened to it more than once.
Did you actually listen to the podcast?

I stand by my reporting, I did not write "clearly incorrect statements".
You are making reference to something elsewhere Nick Radge may have said whilst I referred to a very specific interview viz 178. The Blueprint: How To Create A Simple Trend Following System which is available online for all to hear hence I reject your assertions.

 

[entropy]

@Skate - that gives me the perfect opportunity to post barking dog man and succulent chinese meal guy !

Thanks for posting investtrader!

Brought smiles from me and some fond memories.

This Dozsa character's skit is sending up of course the original Dozsa, the late Paul Dozsa.

Older chessplayers on this forum may remember him as the notorious Hungarian chess master who emigrated to Australia and made a name for himself as a serial pest and freeloader who wanted to get into the Guinness Book of Records as the world's biggest freeloader.
His specialty was to eat and drink at upmarket restaurants then decamp without paying.
Did a few stints in jail for his actions. Had a few stints on television.
Another guy I knew, Frank Lilly, was his manager in negotiations for fees to be interviewed, I kid you not!

I once played chess against him in a tournament at St George Leagues Club in Sydney ( he beat me).
A larger than life, bizarre, character with aristocratic pretensions. He told me that he did military service in Hungary and a chip was implanted in his brain by military intelligence as an explanation of his strange behaviour, he was being manipulated from Budapest!
The actor does a good impersonation of Paul.

 

[Skate]

@entropy wrote -

"A jarring note for me was when the interviewer asked him about how he used in-sample data and out-of-sample data
in establishing his model validity.
Nick's reply was that "was optimization" and he did not do this.
I found this a big worry.
Anyone doing basic statistics and machine learning knows the vital need to use hold out samples to check your model."

I think you are barking up the wrong tree here. You are implying Nick has no idea what he is doing in regards to system testing which is just misleading. I hung out on the old Reefcap forum many years ago and there is no way you are interpreting what he said correctly. I am sure @tech/a will back me up on this also.

I am concerned with Nicks tweets as @Skate has been discussing. But I don't like to see someone 'piling' on by writing clearly incorrect statements. I don't subscribe and I haven't bought any of his systems.

Being an authorised rep for another firm's AFSL is a standard practice in this industry.

Thank you for your response investtrader.

I wrote:
"I knew nothing of Nick Radge so Google led me to his site and then to an hour and a half Q&A podcast in a series "Chat With Traders" 178. The Blueprint: How To Create A Simple Trend Following System.
Nick came across as a pleasant personality and I took a few notes as he discussed his methods."

Hardly "piling on". My comments about the podcast were mostly quite positive apart from the one you are upset by!
"Piling on" is a complete exaggeration.
And I took several pages of notes as well as he had some useful things to say.

I gave the location of the interview for anyone else to check the accuracy of my reporting and I listened to it more than once.
Did you actually listen to the podcast?

I stand by my reporting, I did not write "clearly incorrect statements".
You are making reference to something elsewhere Nick Radge may have said whilst I referred to a very specific interview viz 178. The Blueprint: How To Create A Simple Trend Following System which is available online for all to hear hence I reject your assertions.

The "Dump it here thread"
We all learn when something is viewed through the eyes of others allowing us to see it from a different angle or perspective. @entropy, yes you certainly did detail your personal experience after Googling Nick Radge. In my opinion, your article was well written & a breath of fresh air.

Perception equals reaction
I've often been accused of getting it wrong, being completely off the mark. To me, it's refreshing when others take the time to express an alternative view or correct a point of view from their experience. @investtrader experience is different from yours & his perception caused his reaction. That in itself is a natural human trait.

We are all in different stages of our trading journey
When we play the point & not the person "everyone" gets along. Some posts may inadvertently cause an upset invoking an emotional or knee-jerk response as offending someone is the hardest thing to detect, simply because it really is in the eye of the beholder. What offends one the other finds amusing.

It costs nothing to be nice
For me, hitting the "Like" button doesn't mean you have to agree entirely with the poster but rather it displays an "attitude of gratitude". Kind words never go astray as it keeps a friendly atmosphere within our small community.

Thanks for posting investtrader!

@peter2 words below nailed it

Use the "like" button. If there is a post that you really like or it contains some interesting or helpful information, please thank the poster by hitting the like button. The "like" button creates an alert that lets the poster know that someone likes a post that you did. It's a compliment and we all like to receive them. When I receive a few likes and I've been fortunate to receive many, I'm more likely to provide further information on the "liked" topic. To those new members, who don't want to post. Please thank the contributors that you like to read.

In summary
@elbee, @soren_lorensen, @entropy & @investtrader have added considerably today by making their individual post allowing them to express their point of view. A discussion that is sometimes robust makes interesting reading encouraging others to join in. I don't take sides as (IMHO) all posts have merit, even the ones you or I don't agree on. I'm just saying, if you perceive something as personal, your reaction will be the same. So, it's never wise to react personally to anything you read but rather respond as it gives you time to think about your reply.

Skate.

 

[Roller_1]

I would have thought if anyone is worried about getting in trouble with ASIC it would be this thread basically running as a single service for a while there...

I also just want to say that I think Nick's track record speaks enough for his ability to build and trade systems, so I don't think any of us should be questioning the way he goes about it or how he runs his business. I think multiple people in industry speak of his integrity and sound business practices so there is definitely nothing dodgy going on. I myself can speak to this and his character.

Who knows, he may have just looked at the daily chart and mistakenly posted that. Did anyone ask him?

 

[Skate]

I would have thought if anyone is worried about getting in trouble with ASIC it would be this thread

Nah, it's all good.

I also just want to say that I think Nick's track record speaks enough for his ability to build and trade systems, so I don't think any of us should be questioning the way he goes about it or how he runs his business. I think multiple people in industry speak of his integrity and sound business practices so there is definitely nothing dodgy going on. I myself can speak to this and his character.

Let me qualify
Nick doesn't build or code his own systems or TurnKey Strategies offered for sale, Craig does from memory. I also believe Nick is an honest & respectable business person.

If I post something that you don't understand or agree with
You certainly have the right to ask a qualifying follow-up question, we all have that privilege.

If in your opinion
I post something that you believe or know is "Bullsh!t" you have the right to call me out, but when you do, all anyone expects is that you explain why you have come to that conclusion or why you have made that statement "without" using defamatory language.

With contestable ideas or alternative views
Others will determine which view they will align with.

Everyone likes to be heard
@Roller_1, I hear you loud & clear as everyone wants to have their say, social interaction is to be cherished. In saying this, those who respond or make comments, help keep this thread alive.

Skate.

 

[Roller_1]

I would have thought if anyone is worried about getting in trouble with ASIC it would be this thread basically running as a single service for a while there...

This comment was referring to posting signals ahead of time that you are entering, I think they may be paper trades im not sure.

But if I was a Newby and then stumbled across this thread and saw that you have posted a 'backtested' strategy that shows a 90% annual return over two years. And then in the next post there is the signals that it is entering on the Monday, that may be enough to get me to buy some. That is all I was referring to.

Nick builds the systems, but Craig does the majority of the coding I believe. But like I said he's running a well-run business so he probably does not have time to do everything.