Dump it Here

[Skate]

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Skate.

 

[MovingAverage]

Question is whether XAO can hold the 7233 support despite DJI now well and truly in uncharted territory with support a long way off.

 

[Mohammed Hazabig'un]

There's a quote in here from @qldfrog that he went to Systems to take the emotions out of it. It's not just the emotions, it's a busy life, lack of sleep, too many coffees, reading/seeing things, anything can make you Buy or Sell when your Logic knows it's not right.
The Head and Gut, before the Heart (emotions) usually.

 

[Skate]

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Skate.

 

[Skate]

There's a quote in here from @qldfrog that he went to Systems to take the emotions out of it. It's not just the emotions, it's a busy life, lack of sleep, too many coffees, reading/seeing things, anything can make you Buy or Sell when your Logic knows it's not right.
The Head and Gut, before the Heart (emotions) usually.

Behavioural errors create bad decisions
The tendency to make behavioural mistakes costs money. Mistakes are generally made by traders who do not know the fundamentals, including the behavioural pitfalls. Some habits can be quite positive, other times just irritating but when you fail to see them in yourself, they can be extremely dangerous.

Market Sentiment
Usually, there’s a good explanation to explain the sentiment of the market but we should be wary when the market moved for no apparent reason. When you can’t explain why the market is moving, you should be suspicious of the moves the market makes.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

The tumultuous trading capped a seventh straight losing week, its longest such streak since the dot-com bubble was deflating in 2001. The company in charge of the index says a bear market has not officially begun. “Whether or not the S&P 500 closes in a bear market does not matter too much,” - “A lot of pain has already been experienced.” "I think a lot of investors are kicking themselves for not having gotten out on signs that the economy was probably slowing and the Fed was making its policy pivot".

Two steps forward & three steps backward
You win some & you lose some, trading is not smooth sailing at the best of times let alone in these times of uncertainty. @bigdog post today goes a long way in explaining why most traders are feeling disappointed with how the markets have behaved these last 6 or so months. The line chart below demonstrates the "ups & downs" that we all experience. (it's frustrating but that's just how trading is).



Skate.

 

[Skate]

System trading is jumping on & off trends capitalising on price movements
It's often said that timing the market rarely works but trading this way can be profitable. I realise the best time to trade is when the markets are trending upwards whilst also understanding that there are times when being constantly involved in the markets can be just as profitable, if not more so.

I appreciate being always in the markets is fraught with danger
Timing the entry is "significant" but timing the exit is really, "critical". Our brain is constantly assessing & re-assessing information that matches our beliefs blocking out the rest. It's for this very reason that system trading has an edge for me as those required skills are sadly lacking.

Time in the markets (Passive investment style)
This type of investing can be referred to as a "buy & hold" investment style. Buy & Hold strategies, relies on the theory that "overtime" markets will go up, driven by solidly profitable companies. I'm not saying you can "buy & take your eye off the ball" but rather check periodically that the original investment decision is still applicable.

Skate.

 

[Mohammed Hazabig'un]

I was reading research on one of the best consistent Market timers of all time. He would get out well AFTER the Market dove, not before lol. And he was one of the best lol.

Even Nick Radges method is based on exit after the dive.

You either learn to Momentum Trade (short term), Value Invest (long term) or Buy n Hold - (love them dividends, right @divs4ever ).

 

[divs4ever]

I was reading research on one of the best consistent Market timers of all time. He would get out well AFTER the Market dove, not before lol. And he was one of the best lol.

Even Nick Radges method is based on exit after the dive.

You either learn to Momentum Trade (short term), Value Invest (long term) or Buy n Hold - (love them dividends, right @divs4ever ).

i am terrible at timing , so i try to move early ( nibble on the slide , reduce on the rally )

the beauty of nibbling on the downward trend is IF it bounces at the bottom you have extra chances to buy more ( if you choose to )

while selling in the uptrend you can calculate what profit levels you are locking in ( not sweating about will the trade complete )

also during 2020 several anomalies appeared divs withheld AFTER being declared , , in some cases AFTER the ex-div. date and in one case ON the payment date

just mentioning this in case a corporate type is watching , us investor types are mostly trying to LIVE on those div. incomes ( so issues like that makes us cautious about adding more in your company if we have surplus cash , not that important until cap. raising time )

PS and YES the brokerage fees really mount up , but it is the price you pay for being cautious

 

[MovingAverage]

 

[MovingAverage]

Looking at making some changes to one of my live systems. Which version of the system would you take?

System stat's on the left are for the current system and right is the "new improved system".

Headline figures of the new improved system look inviting: net profit % has increased from around 440% to a little over 600%. System drawdown % also improved from -8.3% to around 6.6%.

Despite the new improved system's better headline figures I'll be sticking with the old version--why? Because I prefer the more consistent annual returns in the original system--annual performance is less volatile in the original system.

 

[Skate]

System stat's on the left are for the current system and right is the "new improved system".

@MovingAverage by removing an index buy filter can at times mask other underlying issues. On those backtest results I would “also” stick with the current system. But to be honest I would like to understand a little better why there is a low exposure trading this strategy, that’s the area of first concern. It’s only a rough guess but if you are trading this system at the moment you would be well south of -3.3%.

Skate.

 

[qldfrog]

Looking at making some changes to one of my live systems. Which version of the system would you take?

System stat's on the left are for the current system and right is the "new improved system".

Headline figures of the new improved system look inviting: net profit % has increased from around 440% to a little over 600%. System drawdown % also improved from -8.3% to around 6.6%.

Despite the new improved system's better headline figures I'll be sticking with the old version--why? Because I prefer the more consistent annual returns in the original system--annual performance is less volatile in the original system.

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Funny, i look at the two charts and without looking at actual figures, just shapes..i go straight for the one on the right .
I then look at figures and absolutely no dilemma..the one on the right...
People are different...

 

[MovingAverage]

@MovingAverage by removing an index buy filter can at times mask other underlying issues. On those backtest results I would “also” stick with the current system. But to be honest I would like to understand a little better why there is a low exposure trading this strategy, that’s the area of first concern. It’s only a rough guess but if you are trading this system at the moment you would be well south of -3.3%.

Skate.

Index Filter not removed...why did you assume that?

These backtest results in my post are done with fixed position sizing and my live trading does not in any way used fixed position sizing (and the positions I've taken in live are considerably larger than those in the sims too) so these sim DD figures do not reflect what I'm experiencing in my live DD, which is sitting at a max DD of around 15%

 

[MovingAverage]

@Skate same system with no filtering...looks ugly

 

[Skate]

Index Filter not removed...why did you assume that?

Skate.

 

[Skate]

@Skate same system with no filtering...looks ugly

@MovingAverage, this backtest looks uglier but more realistic & there is much to work with. The results since COVID looks okay to me.



Skate.